战略："双期叠加"下的财政政策或更积极——2026 年财政政策 展望 今日早参 2025 年 11 月 26 日 史进峰 经济政策与国际关系首席研究员 邮箱：shijinfeng@htsc.com 王兴 通信行业首席研究员 座机：021-38476737 邮箱：wangxing@htsc.com 今日深度 1 回顾 2025 年以来的财政政策运行，一个突出特征是广义财政的明显扩张并 没有推动固定资产投资增速的明显改善，1-10 月份投资累计增速下滑 1.7%，我们认为主因在于大量财政资源用于化债、清偿企业拖欠和土储等暂 时不产生或滞后产生实物工作量的存量问题上。展望 2026 年，"十五五"开 局之年与"化债攻坚期"的关键一年双期叠加，我们预计，实施更加积极有 为的财政政策，仍然是化解存量、优化增量的题中之义。2026 年财政赤字率 有望维持在 4%左右，为配合化债等政策推进，新增专项债额度或进一步扩 容至 5 万亿左右，特别国债或仍维持 1.8 万亿左右的水平。年底的中央经济 工作会议是观察当前政策储备、展望明年政策部署的观察窗口，预计明年会 尽量靠前形成实物工作量。 风险提示：经济下行压力超预期；政策出台 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry is experiencing a surge in new game releases during the summer of 2025, driven by the availability of university students and major events like ChinaJoy, which encourages companies to showcase their new titles [3][5]. Game Releases - In June, 20 new games were launched in China, with July seeing over 20 additional titles set to release, including Tencent's "Star Resonance" and NetEase's "Unowned Star Abyss" [4][6]. - Notable games include "Limitless Machine" by Xishanju and "Carbon Island" by Tencent, both released on July 2, marking the start of the summer gaming season [4]. Market Dynamics - The gaming stock market has shown volatility, with significant gains on July 8, as companies like Iceberg Network and Giant Network saw increases of over 10% and 5% respectively [3][8]. - The approval of 757 game licenses in the first half of the year, including a record 158 in June, indicates a stable trend in the gaming industry [8]. Nostalgia and Updates - Established games are also seeing updates and new versions, such as the nostalgic version of "Fantasy Westward Journey," which has attracted significant player interest, leading to server congestion [6][7]. - The strategy of updating older games helps maintain player engagement and ensures stable revenue for gaming companies [7]. Policy Support - Various local governments have introduced supportive policies for the gaming industry, focusing on promoting game exports and integrating AI technology [8]. - The trend of regular game license approvals is expected to continue, fostering a more robust gaming environment [8]. Industry Trends - The gaming industry is witnessing a diversification of genres, with companies exploring new gameplay mechanics and AI integration [9]. - The emergence of party games like "Goose Duck" is expected to intensify competition among major players like NetEase and Tencent [9].