据央视网报道，28日以色列对伊朗发动了先发制人的打击，随后伊朗反击美国在中东的军事基地，美伊 以冲突爆发。2024年全球军费开支连续第10年增长，增幅达到冷战以来最高，欧洲和中东增长尤其快 速。印巴冲突中，我国多种出口装备的优异表现助力我国产品得到外军认可。我国军贸正从过去的低档 廉价外销逐渐向高端武器出口过渡，尤其是在近年国产装备大批量更新换代背景下，部分军品技术在国 际上已具备较强的竞争力。未来随着我国国际政治地位逐渐提升，国产军贸产品有望进一步提升全球市 占率。 ▍美伊以冲突爆发，军贸关注度望提升。 1）2019-23年我国占全球军贸出口总额的5.8%，其中我国武器出口的85%流向亚太国家，9.9%流向非洲 国家，2.5%流向中东国家； 2）我国军贸出口的接受方大多集中在第三世界国家，2019-2023年，我国军贸出口前五大出口接收国， 分别为巴基斯坦（58%）、孟加拉国（10%）、泰国（6%）、阿尔及利亚（3%）和缅甸（2%）；其 中，巴基斯坦是中国军贸的最大接受国，近10年每年的采购量多超过其他国家，2019-23年，我国军贸 出口中近6成销往巴基斯坦； 3）进入21世纪以来，我国军贸出口以飞机、装 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline on June 13, 2025, with major indices closing lower: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.75%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.10%, and ChiNext Index down 1.13% [1] - Sectors such as mining, precious metals, and aerospace showed gains, while beauty care, cultural media, and bioproducts faced losses [1] Oil Market Insights - According to Xinda Securities, the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be around $70 per barrel for the year, with a high-low-high-low trend anticipated across the four quarters [2] - The potential for oil price increases is linked to risks in the Iranian region, while downward risks are associated with Saudi Arabia [2] - Iran's oil supply accounts for 3% to 4% of global supply, and escalating conflicts could threaten the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [2] Gold Market Analysis - Minsheng Securities highlighted that global monetary expansion and rising geopolitical tensions are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - The ongoing U.S. interest rate cut cycle is expected to support further increases in gold prices, indicating a bullish trend in the gold market [3] Military Trade Dynamics - Zhongtai Securities noted that recent geopolitical conflicts have led to a reassessment of military trade logic, suggesting significant growth potential in military exports [3] - China's military trade currently represents 5.9% of the global market, which is considerably lower than the U.S. at 43% and Russia at 9.6%, indicating room for expansion [3]