搜狐 A股牛市 A-share bull market 搜狐新闻 . L le C B 33-11 . . TH III H L BAAR OTTATCOLLED COLULLILLA 在消费端，呷哺呷哺集团董事长贺光启将以餐饮业为例，分享企业在价格竞争与需求疲软双重压力下，如何通过产品创新与组织变革实现逆势增长。 面对全球化逆风，中国企业正加速"走出去"并向"扎下根"迈进。鹏辉能源总裁甄少强、云迹科技副总裁谢云鹏、追觅扫地机器人事业部总裁孟佳将结合新能 源、人工智能与智能硬件等赛道，解析技术出海、本地化运营与全球竞争力构建的实战经验。 金融投资板块同样阵容强大。中金公司李昭、淡水泉李天、创金合信毛丁丁、国泰基金麻绎文、诺安基金唐晨、山东招金梁永慧等资深人士，将分别从大类 资产配置、医药生物、芯片科技、黄金避险等维度，解读资本如何在不确定性中锚定长期价值。 把脉宏观变局，深研韧性发展之道 下午主论坛聚焦中国经济的宏观韧性与战略方向。 2025年11月27日，搜狐财经年度论坛将在北京举办。本届论坛将汇集吴晓求、刘纪鹏、阎学通、滕泰、孙立平、黄少卿、吴向东、吴世春等二十余位来自学 术界、产业界和投资领域的权威专家 ...

上海证券指出，黄金长期避险和投资优势凸显，随着美联储预期持续降息、贸易摩擦扰动，黄金珠宝需 求预计持续增长。古法金与IP金饰引领新潮流，黄金珠宝行业消费逻辑重构，婚庆需求下降、悦己消费 崛起、轻量化与投资需求分流。具备差异化产品力和满足消费者新需求的品牌有望实现销量提升、业绩 增长。此外，黄金税收政策调整将优化市场投资与消费结构，鼓励场内规范交易，强化交易所定价影响 力和黄金市场监管能力，推动黄金市场从"场外分散"向"场内集中"转型，为市场长期健康运行提供有力 支撑。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 ...

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 上海证券指出，黄金长期避险和投资优势凸显，随着美联储预期持续降息、贸易摩擦扰动，黄金珠宝需 求预计持续增长。古法金与IP金饰引领新潮流，行业消费逻辑重构，婚庆需求下降、悦己消费崛起、轻 量化与投资需求分流。此外，黄金税收政策调整将优化市场投资与消费结构，鼓励场内规范交易，推动 行业从"场外分散"向"场内集中"转型，加速行业合规化进程，为市场长期健康运行提供支撑。在有色金 属领域，政策扩内需持续显效，10月PPI环比由持平转为上涨0.1%，为年内首次上涨，工业品价格呈现 企稳迹象。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 ...

Group 1 - The weakening of the US dollar and geopolitical tensions have increased the attractiveness of gold, although hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have limited expectations for a rate cut in December, restricting the upward movement of gold prices [1][2] - Consumers are taking advantage of price discrepancies in the gold market, utilizing delivery services in Shenzhen's Shui Bei area to purchase gold bars at prices lower than the real-time market rate, saving significant amounts [1] - A joint statement from India and Canada emphasizes their commitment to securing critical minerals and clean energy supply chains, indicating a new phase in bilateral relations [1] Group 2 - Despite geopolitical risks and a weak dollar providing some support to the market, several Federal Reserve decision-makers have expressed caution, highlighting that inflation concerns remain and the labor market is stabilizing, suggesting no urgency for further rate cuts [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased from 64% to 51% according to futures data [2] Group 3 - As of November 14, 2023, the spot gold price is reported at $4171.19 per ounce, with a marginal increase of 0.01% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of a differentiated VAT policy for gold trading in Shanghai has significantly impacted the gold market, leading to price fluctuations and changes in consumer behavior [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the new tax policy, the Shenzhen Shui Bei market experienced immediate disruptions, with merchants halting new gold orders and adjusting pricing strategies [2][3]. - The price of gold jewelry in the Shui Bei market increased by approximately 60 to 70 yuan per gram after the announcement, with some brands reporting price hikes of over 66 yuan per gram on the first day of resumed pricing [3][4]. - Major gold retailers like Lao Miao and Chow Tai Fook adjusted their prices upwards, with increases ranging from 61 to 63 yuan per gram, reflecting the new cost structure imposed by the tax policy [4][5]. Group 2: Tax Policy Details - The new tax policy exempts VAT on standard gold transactions until the end of 2027, differentiating between investment and non-investment gold, which affects tax burdens for various market participants [3][8]. - Non-investment gold enterprises will see an increase in tax burden due to a reduction in input tax deductions from 13% to 6%, leading to a potential price increase for consumers [3][8]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumer sentiment is divided, with some viewing gold as a long-term investment and continuing to purchase despite rising prices, while others are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to concerns about market bubbles [6][7]. - Banks have temporarily suspended certain gold-related services to comply with the new tax regulations, impacting consumer access to gold investment products [6][7]. Group 4: Global Demand Trends - Global gold demand remains strong, with the World Gold Council reporting a record high of 1,313 tons in the third quarter of 2023, driven primarily by investment demand [9]. - Chinese investors have shown significant activity, purchasing 74 tons of gold bars and coins in the third quarter, marking a 19% increase year-on-year [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by a new tax policy, has created significant market fluctuations and reactions across the gold industry, impacting everything from trading to consumer purchasing behavior [1][3][11]. Tax Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a differentiated VAT exemption for standard gold transactions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange until the end of 2027, which is expected to influence the entire gold market [1][3]. - The new tax policy categorizes gold transactions into investment and non-investment types, leading to a tax burden increase of approximately 7 percentage points for non-investment gold jewelry enterprises [3][11]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Shenzhen Shui Bei market experienced immediate disruptions, with many jewelers halting new orders and adjusting pricing strategies due to unstable gold prices [2][3]. - The price of gold jewelry saw significant increases, with prices rising by 60 to 70 yuan per gram for gold jewelry and surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram in the Shui Bei market shortly after the policy announcement [3][4][6]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer sentiment is divided, with some viewing gold as a long-term investment and continuing to purchase despite rising prices, while others are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to concerns about potential price corrections [9][10][12]. - The demand for gold remains strong, with Chinese investors notably increasing their purchases of gold bars and coins, reflecting a broader trend of rising global gold investment demand [12]. Industry Adjustments - Major gold retailers quickly adjusted their pricing in response to the new tax policy, with significant price hikes reported across various brands [4][5]. - The industry is adapting to the new regulatory environment, with some businesses likely to pass on increased costs to consumers through higher prices [11].

基本面： 此外，美国历史上最长的政府停摆已持续41天，给经济带来巨大压力：联邦雇员无薪休假、食品援助中断、航班大面积取消，甚至特朗普总统亲自敦促航空 管制员复工，并威胁削减薪酬，同时承诺向坚持岗位者发放1万美元奖金。然而，好消息终于来临——美国参议院周日推进了一项折中议案，旨在重新开放 联邦政府并结束停摆，该议案已初步扫清障碍，虽需众议院批准并经特朗普签署，但本周结束停摆的概率在博彩网站Polymarket上已高达88%。尽管风险情 绪回暖，黄金并未随之回落，反而借势上涨。这是因为停摆虽有望结束，但其遗留的经济创伤仍强化了降息预期。投资者对政府关门很快结束表示乐观，但 这种趋势终将减弱，届时劳动力市场和通胀数据将成为焦点，而黄金在不确定性中的避险角色将更加凸显。 本周交易者将重点关注有关美国政府停摆事件更多进展及潜在一系列缺失数据的公布，另外留意美联储官员讲话 技术面： 周二（11月11日）亚盘时段，现货黄金延续走高并录得4141.15美元/盎司高位刷新两周高点，目前暂交投于4135美元附近。周一现货黄金大涨2.85%，收报 4115美元附近，这是自10月23日以来的最高收盘价。现货白银更是不甘示弱，涨幅超过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by weak U.S. economic data and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, making gold an attractive non-yielding asset for investors [1][3]. Economic Data Impact - A series of disappointing economic indicators from the U.S. has shattered market optimism about economic strength, particularly a significant drop in October job numbers and a decline in consumer confidence [3]. - The market now assigns a 64% probability to a rate cut in December, increasing to approximately 77% by January [3]. Federal Reserve Divergence - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the approach to further rate cuts, with some members advocating caution due to inflation concerns, while others support aggressive cuts [4][5][6]. - This internal debate adds uncertainty to the gold market, but the prevailing low-rate expectations are likely to support gold prices [6]. Government Shutdown and Market Sentiment - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has created significant economic strain, but recent legislative progress suggests a potential resolution, which has improved market risk appetite [7]. - Despite this positive sentiment, gold prices continue to rise due to lingering economic damage and persistent rate cut expectations [7]. External Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold prices are also influenced by external factors such as tariffs and global trade uncertainties, with a notable decline in U.S. imports from China [8]. - The flattening of the U.S. yield curve and rising short-term rates reflect investor concerns about inflation, further boosting gold's appeal as a safe haven [8]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains optimistic, with predictions suggesting prices could range between $4,200 and $4,300 by year-end, and potentially reach $5,000 in Q1 of the following year [9]. - Continued low interest rates, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical trade tensions are expected to drive gold's performance [9].

Group 1 - Spot gold prices rose to $4040.260 per ounce, an increase of 0.61% on the day, while COMEX gold was up 0.45% at $4140.4 per ounce [1][2] - On the previous trading day, spot gold surged by 2.85%, closing around $4115, marking the highest closing price since October 23 [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also saw significant increases, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang raising their prices to over 1300 RMB per gram [3] Group 2 - The ongoing increase in gold prices is attributed to rising global distrust in the financial system, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold as a safe-haven asset [12] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, reaching 2304.46 tons by the end of October, indicating strong long-term demand [12] - Investment demand for gold remains robust globally, with record inflows into Indian gold ETFs and a notable increase in purchases [12]

换资前言： 当你点开这篇文章就代表你敢进入风险与机遇并存的投资市场，那么也就代表你有野心与魄力。投资交 易并不难，可是却还是有不少的亏损的朋友，这说明什么？说明曾经盲目过、失误过，选择错过。既然 此前错了，那么就要改正。没有注定的亏损，只要你不想一条道走到黑，对黄金市场还有渴望和期待， 那可以跟我再次感受一下这个市场的魅力！——我是分析师金晟富，不是所有的都适合，合适的只有一 个。你不将就，我不敷衍，愿投资路上幸运与你同行！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 本周市场利好密集，周一美国政府重启会议，可能会结束停摆，周四有CPI数据公布，周五有ppi数据 公布，如果美国政府正常运行，周四，周五的数据就有较大的影响。现在的行情既有市场基础，也有盘 中表现，就差一点数据影响，不然多头会走的更加凶猛。周一分析过，本周黄金破位4050后，就看单边 走势，上方可以看到4200，4300，现在走势明显，周一直接破位4050，单日上涨有100多美金空间，在 确定单边行情出来后，那么，今天延续看单边上涨走势。从技术面来看，日线底部震荡结束后，上涨目 前破位布林中轨压制，那么接下来上方只有布林上轨目标点 ...