Group 1: Financial Performance - Barrick Gold's Q2 profit exceeded analyst expectations, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.47 compared to the expected $0.45 [1] - Revenue for the quarter was $3.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, although it fell short of market expectations [1] - The average gold price in Q2 reached $3,220.58 per ounce, up over 12% from the previous quarter and nearly 40% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Production and Market Conditions - Gold production decreased from 948,000 ounces in the same quarter last year to 797,000 ounces [1] - Barrick maintained its full-year gold production forecast for 2025 at 3.15 million to 3.5 million ounces [1] - The company's stock price fell nearly 4% in pre-market trading, influenced by a drop in gold prices [1] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine complex was seized by the Malian military government, resulting in a net cost of $1.04 billion for the company [2] - The company faced operational suspension due to the Malian government's actions, including a two-month halt on gold exports [2] - Barrick has initiated arbitration with the World Bank to resolve the dispute regarding the mine [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in sentiment towards gold, with institutions like Citigroup reversing their bearish outlook and raising gold price forecasts due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks [2][4]. Group 1: Citigroup's Revised Gold Outlook - Citigroup has adjusted its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 per ounce to $3,500 per ounce, with the trading range revised from $3,100-$3,500 to $3,300-$3,600 [2]. - The bank attributes this change to factors such as weak U.S. labor data, concerns over the credibility of the Federal Reserve, and escalating geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. - Since mid-2022, total gold demand has increased by over 33%, contributing to a near doubling of gold prices in the second quarter of this year [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Demand - Strong investment demand, continuous purchases by central banks, and resilient jewelry demand are key drivers of the rising gold prices [6]. - In the second quarter, global gold demand reached 1,249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from gold ETFs and bar and coin investments [16]. - Central banks added 166 tons of gold in the second quarter, maintaining high levels of gold purchases despite a slowdown in the pace of buying [16]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data, which showed a significant drop in job growth, gold prices surged, with COMEX gold futures breaking the $3,400 mark [10]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction is not solely based on future predictions but also on a retrospective reassessment of economic weakness over the past two months [11]. - The Federal Reserve's potential for multiple rate cuts this year is being closely monitored, with indications that if labor market weakness persists without inflationary pressures, more than two rate cuts may be necessary [14].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to multiple significant risk events, including international trade developments and key economic data releases, leading to a cautious trading environment [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent progress in US-EU trade negotiations has reduced safe-haven demand for gold, resulting in a three-day decline and a new weekly low [1]. - The establishment of a 15% unified tariff agreement between the US and EU has increased market risk appetite, further diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]. - Upcoming events such as the small non-farm payrolls, Federal Reserve meeting, and non-farm payroll data are expected to influence gold prices, with a likely range-bound trading scenario in the short term [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The initial trading week may see a rebound in gold prices, with key resistance levels identified between $3350 and $3370, while support is noted between $3300 and $3290 [2]. - Short-term trading is recommended within the $3350 to $3320 range, with a cautious approach advised due to potential volatility from major economic events [2]. - A conservative strategy suggests waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision before making significant trading adjustments, while aggressive traders may consider short-term positions [2]. Group 3: Trading Recommendations - The suggested trading range for gold is between $3320 and $3350, with a stop loss of $5 and a take profit target of $20 to $22 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced a significant drop, falling by 1.12% to $3,335.6 per ounce, while domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased below 1,000 yuan per gram, leading to a surge in consumer interest and purchases [1][5] Group 1: Market Reaction - Consumers are rushing to buy gold, with reports of crowded stores and high demand for gold bars and jewelry as prices drop significantly [5] - Conversely, those who recently purchased gold at higher prices are expressing regret, with some feeling they have made poor investment decisions [4][5] - The gold recovery market is also bustling, with many individuals looking to sell their gold jewelry due to recent price declines [5] Group 2: Causes of Price Drop - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are a primary factor, as higher interest rates make holding gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets [5] - Improved economic conditions in the U.S. have reduced the perceived need for gold as a safe haven, leading to decreased demand [5] - Chinese consumers, previously significant buyers of gold, are now more cautious and less likely to purchase gold, contributing to the price decline [5] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The article warns that the price of gold jewelry does not equate to the actual gold price, as it includes additional costs such as labor and branding [5] - Consumers are advised to be cautious of "one-price" gold items, which often carry a significant markup over the actual gold value [5] - The risks associated with gold investment products, such as ETFs and paper gold, are highlighted, indicating they can be more volatile than expected [5] Group 4: Recommendations for Consumers - For those with a genuine need for gold, such as wedding purchases, now may be a good time to buy, but they should avoid high markup items [5] - Individuals with old or broken gold jewelry are encouraged to sell now, as recovery prices are still favorable compared to last year [5] - The article advises against trying to "time the market" for gold purchases, suggesting that ordinary consumers are unlikely to outperform market trends [6]

Core Insights - The domestic gold consumption market in China is experiencing significant structural changes due to rising international gold prices, with total gold consumption in the first half of 2025 reaching 505.205 tons, a decrease of 3.54% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Jewelry Consumption - Gold jewelry consumption has seen a dramatic decline, with a total of 199.826 tons in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year drop of 26%, which is much greater than market expectations [3] - Consumers are fundamentally changing their purchasing behavior, with many postponing or canceling their plans to buy gold jewelry due to high prices, leading to a noticeable decrease in foot traffic in jewelry stores [3] - Lightweight jewelry products with strong design and high added value are becoming popular, as consumers prefer exquisite but lighter products to reduce purchasing costs [3] - Major brand stores like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang have frequently adjusted their gold prices, with prices nearing or exceeding 1020 yuan per gram, causing daily fluctuations of 7-10 yuan per gram, which exacerbates consumer hesitation [3] Group 2: Investment Demand - In contrast, gold bar and coin consumption has surged, reaching 264.242 tons in the first half of the year, a significant increase of 23.69% year-on-year, indicating strong investor recognition of gold's value preservation function [4] - Increased risk aversion due to geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties has driven a surge in investment demand for gold, with investors viewing it as a crucial tool for hedging risks [4] - The domestic gold ETF holdings have significantly increased, with an addition of 84 tons in the first half of the year, a 173% rise compared to 30 tons in the same period of 2024, reflecting sustained enthusiasm from institutional and individual investors [4] - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 18.97 tons in the first half of the year, bringing total reserves to 2298.55 tons, indicating a positive outlook on long-term gold price increases [4] - Despite strong demand for gold bars in stores, profit margins remain relatively low, suggesting that investors are focusing more on gold's value preservation rather than its decorative value [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the trends in China's gold production and consumption for the first half of 2025, indicating a decline in both production and consumption, while also noting a significant increase in gold ETF holdings and trading volumes due to high gold prices and geopolitical tensions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Production - In the first half of 2025, China's gold production was 179.083 tons, a decrease of 0.31% year-on-year [1][3]. - Domestic gold mining contributed 139.413 tons, while by-products from non-ferrous metals accounted for 39.670 tons [3]. - The total gold production, including imported raw materials, reached 252.761 tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.44% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: Gold Consumption - Gold consumption in China for the first half of 2025 was 505.205 tons, down 3.54% year-on-year [1][3]. - The consumption of gold jewelry fell significantly by 26.00% to 199.826 tons, while demand for gold bars and coins rose by 23.69% to 264.242 tons [3][4]. - Industrial and other uses of gold saw a modest increase of 2.59%, totaling 41.137 tons [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - High gold prices have suppressed jewelry consumption, but high-value, well-designed jewelry remains popular, benefiting retailers [4]. - The demand for gold bars continues to be strong, although profit margins are lower [4]. - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty have heightened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a substantial increase in investment demand for gold bars and coins [4]. Group 4: Trading Activity - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a total trading volume of 16,786.870 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.70% [4]. - The trading value reached 12.1180 trillion yuan, up 56.46% compared to the previous year [4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a trading volume of 75,477.958 tons, marking an 88.39% increase year-on-year, with a trading value of 44.4429 trillion yuan, up 149.17% [5]. Group 5: ETF Holdings - Domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 84.771 tons in the first half of 2025, a remarkable growth of 173.73% compared to the same period in 2024 [5]. - As of June 30, 2025, the total gold ETF holdings in China reached 199.505 tons [5]. Group 6: Gold Prices - By the end of June 2025, the London spot gold price was $3,287.45 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 24.31% [5]. - The average gold price for the first half of 2025 was $3,066.59 per ounce, up 39.21% year-on-year [5]. - In China, the closing price for Au9999 gold was 764.43 yuan per gram, a 24.50% increase since the beginning of the year [5].

Report Overview - The report is a precious metals industry daily report dated July 23, 2025, covering the precious metals market including gold and silver [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to the uncertainty of US - EU tariffs, concerns about US inflation and growth, and market expectations of Fed rate cuts. The "tariff countdown" may be the main trading theme for gold. It is recommended to buy gold at low prices. Silver has shown a strong trend recently with the gold - silver ratio repaired, but short - term callback risks should be noted [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Gold**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 792.9 yuan/gram, up 8.06; the main contract position was 222,387 lots, up 5,665; the net position of the top 20 in the main contract was 161,804 lots, up 9,350; the warehouse receipt quantity was 28,857 kilograms, unchanged [2] - **Silver**: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9,492 yuan/kilogram, up 99; the main contract position was 478,279 lots, up 2,269; the net position of the top 20 in the main contract was 134,188 lots, down 2,904; the warehouse receipt quantity was 1,188,482 kilograms, down 10,564 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Gold**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 787.97 yuan/gram, with a basis of - 4.93 yuan/gram against the Shanghai Gold main contract, up 6.47; the gold ETF position was 954.8 tons, up 7.74 [2] - **Silver**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price was 9,419 yuan/kilogram, with a basis of - 73 yuan/kilogram against the Shanghai Silver main contract, up 6; the silver ETF position was 15,158.37 tons, up 152.58 [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **Gold**: The CFTC non - commercial net position was 213,115 contracts (weekly), up 10,147; the total quarterly supply was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total quarterly demand was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 [2] - **Silver**: The CTFC non - commercial net position was 59,448 contracts (weekly), up 927; the total annual supply was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4; the total annual global demand was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - **Gold**: The 20 - day historical volatility was 10.42%, down 0.83; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.2%, up 2.37; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.31%, up 2.36 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said Fed Chairman Powell would leave office, and he thought interest rates were too high and should be cut by at least 3 percentage points. He has criticized Powell multiple times this year [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said tariff revenues were "huge", possibly accounting for 1% of US GDP, and could reach $2.8 trillion in the next decade. He supported Powell to complete his term and called for an internal review of his non - monetary policy functions [2] - Japan's central bank may keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% next week, as Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's election defeat has little impact on the central bank's gradual rate - hike policy [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July was 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 40.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 57%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 2.7% [2]

Report Summary of Precious Metals Industry Daily (July 22, 2025) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The core driver of this round of gold price rebound is the simultaneous decline of the US dollar and US Treasury yields due to uncertainties in US fiscal and politics, and the persistent trade uncertainties brought by the approaching deadline of US - EU tariff negotiations on August 1st. The "tariff countdown" may become the main trading theme for gold in the near term. The expected high - level tariffs and the non - extension stance of the White House suppress corporate profits and risk assets, heighten concerns about potential inflation and growth impairment in the US, weaken the demand for the US dollar, and boost the safe - haven demand for gold. [3] - Market interpretations of the Fed's policy path are divided. After the release of the latest data, investors are reducing dovish bets, resulting in a "downward interest - rate trend with a slower pace" environment, which maintains the relative return of holding gold. [3] - The recent strong performance of silver has significantly repaired the gold - silver ratio compared to the beginning of the year. The tight supply situation of silver for semiconductor industry use and inventory may continue to support its potential for further repair. [3] - The US - EU tariff situation remains highly uncertain. The continuous impact of tariff risks and tax - cut bills enhances the safe - haven property of gold, and the gold price center may continue to rise. The market's bets on a Fed rate cut in September are relatively stable. The expectation of rate cuts and accelerating inflation may push down the real yield of US Treasuries, potentially benefiting the gold price. For investment, a strategy of buying gold on dips is recommended, while short - term callback risks for silver should be noted. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 784.84 yuan/gram, up 3.14 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9393 yuan/kg, up 122 yuan. [3] - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 216,722 lots, an increase of 5,483 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 476,010 lots, an increase of 8,476 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 152,454 lots, an increase of 4,916 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract was 137,092 lots, an increase of 2,059 lots. [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 28,857 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,199,046 kg, a decrease of 5,420 kg. [3] 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 781.5 yuan/gram, up 5.8 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9314 yuan/kg, up 114 yuan. [3] - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 3.34 yuan/gram, up 2.66 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 79 yuan/kg, down 8 yuan. [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holding was 947.06 tons, an increase of 3.44 tons; the silver ETF holding was 15,005.79 tons, an increase of 347.58 tons. [3] - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 213,115 contracts, an increase of 10,147 contracts; the weekly non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC was 59,448 contracts, an increase of 927 contracts. [3] - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces. [3] 3.4 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.25%, up 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.21%, down 0.29%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for gold was 18.95%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for gold was 18.95%, down 0.29%. [3] 3.5 Industry News - International rating agency Fitch downgraded the outlook for 25% of the US industry in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and the expectation of long - term high interest rates. [3] - The latest estimate by a US congressional analysis agency shows that the "OBBBA" bill passed by the Trump administration will increase the US government's fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent criticized the Fed's "panic propaganda" about tariffs, stating that tariffs have had little inflationary effect so far, and emphasized the need to review the Fed's performance, while indicating that the Trump administration focuses more on the quality of trade agreements than time nodes. [3] - EU may hold a meeting this week to formulate contingency plans for the scenario of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool" for the first time. As the August 1st deadline for US - EU tariff negotiations approaches, Trump has taken a tougher stance. [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.5%. [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's policy divergence is increasing, with a 56.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, while 41.2% expect rates to remain unchanged [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller is a leading internal candidate to succeed Powell as chairman, especially given his support for rate cuts this year [3] - There are allegations from Republican congressmen that Powell committed perjury, leading to proposed criminal charges [3] Group 2 - Gold is currently fluctuating within the range of 3375 to 3310, experiencing volatile trading patterns, with a recent low of 3310 before rebounding [5] - Following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs on August 1, gold's safe-haven appeal has increased, leading to a breakout above the 3375 resistance level, reaching nearly 3400 [5] - The bullish sentiment for gold is strong, with daily gains opening up the upper Bollinger Band space, and short-term outlook remains bullish despite pressure at the 3400 level [5][6] Group 3 - Silver has been trading in a high range between 37.3 and 35, successfully breaking through the 37.3 resistance to reach a new high of 39 [9] - The bullish market structure for silver is reinforced by daily and weekly charts showing upward momentum, with MA5 and MA10 maintaining a bullish crossover [9] - The focus for silver trading is on the support level around 38, with expectations for continued bullish movement [9]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant surge on July 21, closing at $3,396.93 per ounce, an increase of $47.09 or 1.41% [1] - The rise in gold prices was primarily driven by a sharp decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, with the dollar index (DXY) falling by 0.64% to 97.83 [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped over 6.5 basis points to 4.356%, while the real yield fell by 6 basis points to 1.946% [2] Group 2 - The impending August 1 deadline for tariff negotiations has heightened uncertainty in the market, contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - US President Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 30% on EU products, complicating negotiations that were initially expected to result in a 10% tariff agreement [3] - The EU is considering retaliatory measures, including the use of the "nuclear option" to limit US companies' access to the €2 trillion public procurement market [3] Group 3 - Speculation regarding potential early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has created unease in the market, with discussions about the effectiveness of the Fed being raised [4] - The market sentiment is influenced by fears of inflation due to tariff-related concerns, although no significant inflation effects have been observed yet [4] Group 4 - Analysts indicate that gold prices have broken above the $3,300-$3,350 per ounce range, with bullish momentum strengthening [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen towards 60.00, suggesting that bullish sentiment is dominant [6] - If gold closes above $3,400 per ounce, it is expected to test the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce, with a potential target of the historical high of $3,500 per ounce [6]