一克黄金，在上海黄金交易所的电子盘上显示1146元，在工商银行的柜台里标价1165元，但当你走进周 大福的店铺，同样一克黄金的标签却变成了1565元。 2026年2月25日，中国黄金市场呈现出一个价格分 层的魔幻现实，同一件商品，在不同地方的身价，最高能差出419元。 这个价格金字塔的塔基，是上海黄金交易所。 2026年2月25日，这里黄金9999的基准报价在1146元/克左 右。 这个数字是国内黄金原料的定价基石，它紧密跟随国际市场的波动。 就在前一天，2月24日，国际 现货黄金价格暴跌了86美元，收盘报5141美元/盎司。 国内以人民币计价的基础金价也随之回落。 往上走一层，是各大银行的贵金属柜台。 这里售卖的投资金条，价格最接近黄金的原料价值。 2月25 日，工商银行的如意金条报价在1166.95元/克左右，建设银行的建行金报价约为1169.40元/克。 这些价 格在交易所基础价上，只增加了大约10到25元每克的加工和管理费用。 银行金条造型简单，克重标 准，主打的是投资和保值功能。 第三个世界，是全国黄金珠宝产业的源头——深圳水贝批发市场。 2月24日，水贝市场的足金999裸金 报价是1314元/克。 ...

Email:lizongheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524090001 行业研究｜贵金属 2026 年 02 月 25 日 证券研究报告 行业点评：节后金价能否持续走强 [Table_Author] 李纵横 分析师 投资要点： 行业事件： 2 月 20 日1，美国最高法院以 6 比 3 的结果裁决特朗普政府依据 《国际紧急经济权力法》所征收大规模关税违法；24 日，美国国土安全 部证实，停止收取相关进口商品关税；为取代被裁定违法的关税，特朗 普 20 日签署文件，对来自所有国家和地区的商品加征 10%的关税；21 日再次宣布将这一关税税率提高至 15%，上述决定均依据《1974 年贸 易法》第 122 条款发布，该条款允许联邦政府最多征收 150 天关税，延 长须经国会同意。 事件点评： 此次关税政策的反复，本质上是美国国内政治制衡机制在政治周期关 键节点上的阶段性反映。随着特朗普开启第二任期，关税政策不仅构成其 对外经济战略的核心支柱，更成为其拓展外交空间、深度介入地缘政治博 弈的关键工具。进入 2026 年中期选举年，特朗普政府面临的国内政治压 力逐步凸显。最新民调数据显示，其当前支持率已 ...

0 2 B 从这一点来讲，降息肯定是利多黄金的，但缩表、缩减资产负债表，又是利空黄金的，所以接下来黄金具体会怎么走，还得等沃神正式上任之后，看美国的 实际利率究竟会如何表现，这才是关键。这里跟大家简单说一句，不管是降息还是加息，调整的都是名义利率；而缩减资产负债表，会直接影响到美国长期 债券的收益率，咱们可以简单理解为，长期债券收益率，其实就相当于美国的实际利率，这两者的关联度非常高，近期美债收益率的波动也间接影响了黄金 的短期走势。 所以说，从这方面来讲，我们后续要重点关注的，就是长期债券收益率的走向，尤其是沃神上任之后，他的货币政策会有哪些具体变化。当然了，大家也不 用太着急，沃神上任还有两三个月的时间，暂时不需要过分担忧，咱们边走边看、顺势而为就好。 l ( � 9 09 C T III l 首先一方面呢，就是关税的事。在放假期间，美国那边对特朗普的关税作出了判决，认定是不合法的，但这一点也不影响特朗普，他还是会从其他方面进一 步增加其他关税，说白了就是"不管合法不合法，我都要执行"，就是这么一个状态。 这是关税方面的情况，当然了，对于全球贸易来讲，这种做法肯定是不合理的，也不利于全球经济的发展。而从黄 ...

从逻辑上看，当市场对全球贸易秩序、地缘冲突升级或政策路径产生不确定预期时，黄金的"金融避险 资产"属性往往优先体现。与铜等兼具工业属性的金属不同，黄金更多受资金配置与风险偏好驱动。在 风险资产波动加大的背景下，黄金成为资金阶段性"避风港"。 此外，美国货币政策路径、美元指数波动以及全球央行购金趋势，亦构成中期支撑因素。当前市场对全 球经济复苏节奏及通胀路径仍存在分歧，在此环境下，黄金作为对冲资产的重要性并未削弱。 金价中枢抬升，黄金企业盈利弹性释放 从产业基本面看，黄金价格中枢上移为上游金矿企业带来盈利弹性。资源端金矿企业的利润对金价波动 具有较高弹性，在金价维持高位甚至再创新高的背景下，企业现金流与盈利能力明显改善。 避险情绪再起，金价震荡走强，黄金股票ETF（517400）开盘涨超5.2%。 今日贵金属板块走强，黄金产业链相关标的活跃，黄金股票ETF（517400）盘中上涨超5.2%，在近期震 荡整理后出现放量反弹迹象，情绪端与基本面形成阶段性共振。结合近期贵金属期货及海外市场表现， 黄金板块的走强并非孤立事件，而是避险需求、宏观政策扰动与中长期资产配置逻辑交织的结果。 地缘与政策扰动叠加，避险需求阶段性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market is experiencing a significant divergence in pricing, with international gold prices soaring above $5000 per ounce, while domestic prices in China are declining, leading to confusion among consumers [1][3][7]. Group 1: International Gold Market - On February 15, 2026, international gold prices reached $5040.56 per ounce, marking a daily increase of $121.6 or 2.47% [1]. - The New York Mercantile Exchange saw gold futures prices rise to $5064.38 per ounce, reflecting strong international demand [1]. Group 2: Domestic Gold Market - In contrast, the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a closing price of 1108.50 yuan per gram, down 16.55 yuan or 1.47% from the previous day [3]. - The main futures contract in Shanghai fell to 1110.10 yuan per gram, a decrease of 18.16 yuan or 1.61% [3]. Group 3: Price Discrepancies - There is a notable price discrepancy within the domestic market, with different sales channels offering prices that can vary by over 400 yuan per gram for the same gold quality [3][4]. - Prices for investment gold bars at various banks range from 1121.60 yuan to 1144.92 yuan per gram, while retail prices for gold jewelry are significantly higher, averaging around 1548 yuan per gram [4][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The divergence in pricing is attributed to the timing of the Chinese New Year, with the domestic market closed for the holiday while international markets continued to trade [7]. - Domestic market conditions, including tight liquidity and the behavior of small institutions needing to liquidate positions, have contributed to the downward pressure on prices [9]. Group 5: Recovery and Investment - The gold recovery market shows that gold jewelry purchased at high retail prices can lose nearly 30% of its value when resold, with recovery prices around 1067 yuan per gram for 999 gold [6][13]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, long-term support for gold prices remains strong due to ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [15]. Group 6: Consumer Behavior - Different consumer segments exhibit varying preferences, with wedding consumers prioritizing style and brand, while investors focus on purity and price differentials [16][18]. - The market offers differentiated products catering to these diverse needs, from investment bars to fashion jewelry, reflecting a complex pricing structure [19].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has stabilized above $5000 per ounce, marking a significant increase compared to the previous month, driven by various economic and geopolitical factors [1][3]. Price Trends - On January 26, the international gold price first surpassed the psychological barrier of $5000, reaching a record high of $5111.17 per ounce before experiencing a brief decline and rebounding above $5000 in early February [3]. - In 2025, the international gold price increased by 67%, the best annual performance since 1979, with a rapid rise from $3000 in March to over $5000 by January 2026, reflecting a total increase of over 215% since September 2022 [3]. Influencing Factors - Key factors driving the rise in gold prices include investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, ongoing inflation issues, and downward pressure on the U.S. economy [3]. - Geopolitical events, such as U.S. tariffs on Canada and military movements in the Middle East, have heightened market tensions, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [5]. - Central banks globally have been consistently purchasing gold, with annual purchases exceeding 1000 tons from 2022 to 2024, and China's gold reserves reaching 7415 million ounces by the end of 2025 [5]. Market Dynamics - The gold ETF market has seen significant inflows, with approximately 112 billion yuan entering China's gold ETFs in 2025, leading to a total management scale of 242 billion yuan by the end of the year [5]. - The price of gold varies significantly across different sales channels, with bank investment gold bars priced between 1135-1141 yuan per gram, while brand jewelry prices exceed 1570 yuan per gram [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts have differing views on future gold prices, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 year-end target to $5400 per ounce, while Jefferies Group suggests a target of $6600 per ounce [7]. - Technical analysis indicates key support levels at $5000 and $4800, with resistance levels at $5150 and $5200 [8]. - Factors supporting future price increases include the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, ongoing central bank demand for gold, geopolitical uncertainties, and the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit [10].

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices have rebounded to $89.20 per ounce, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the delayed January non-farm payroll report, consumer price index, retail sales, and initial jobless claims [1] - The market anticipates only 70,000 new jobs added in January, aligning with White House economic advisor Hassett's view of a slowdown in job growth in the coming months [1] - Weak economic data could strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, potentially driving gold prices higher [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan's recent comments suggest that the impact of tariffs is mild, primarily borne by foreign entities rather than American citizens [3] - Despite conflicting research indicating an average tariff burden of $1,400 per household, Milan asserts that tariffs have not triggered significant inflation, with core inflation nearing target levels [3] - The Fed's internal view is that tariffs have led to one-time price increases rather than sustained inflation, which may provide more room for rate cuts under the leadership of Walsh later this year [3] Inflation and Market Expectations - The 5-year and 10-year TIPS breakeven rates are reported at 2.521% and 2.337%, respectively, indicating market expectations of an average annual inflation rate of about 2.3% over the next decade [3] - If the upcoming CPI data falls below expectations, it could further weaken the dollar and boost gold prices, with a 17.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March [3] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are providing additional support for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The Russian Defense Ministry reported strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure, while Ukraine claims to have shot down numerous Russian drones, highlighting the ongoing conflict [3] - The situation in the Middle East, with U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, adds to global uncertainty, prompting investors to turn to gold [4] Silver Market Trends - The current trend for silver is upward, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [7] - Technical analysis indicates a support level around $83.15, with a bullish MACD pattern suggesting a potential upward trend [7] - Suggested trading strategies include a long position near $77.91 with a stop loss at $77.30 and a take profit target in the $83.69 to $85.90 range [7]

Core Insights - The global gold market experienced a significant "reverse operation" in January 2026, with gold prices suffering their worst monthly drop in decades, while simultaneously, investors rushed to buy, leading to record inflows into gold ETFs [1][3] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETF net inflows reached 120 tons in January 2026, equivalent to nearly $19 billion, marking the strongest monthly performance in history [1][3] Market Dynamics - The primary reason for the surge in gold ETF investments despite falling prices is the increasing global uncertainty, which enhances gold's role as a "safe haven" asset [3] - The January price drop was attributed to multiple short-term factors, including the appointment of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair, leading to a rebound in the dollar and a temporary decrease in gold's attractiveness [3] - The global debt reached $345.7 trillion, 3.1 times the global GDP, alongside rising geopolitical tensions, which continue to amplify economic risks, reinforcing the long-term demand for gold as a risk hedge [3] Regional Insights - Asia emerged as the dominant force in the global gold accumulation trend, with January inflows into Asian gold ETFs reaching 62 tons, valued at approximately $10 billion, accounting for 51.7% of global inflows [4][5] - China and India were the main contributors to this trend, with China leading at around $6 billion in inflows, driven by high gold prices and geopolitical risks, while India saw about $2.5 billion due to asset diversification needs amid stock market weaknesses [4][5] Price Recovery - Following the significant inflows, gold prices rebounded, with spot gold reaching $5,064.10 per ounce by February 9, 2026, marking a strong recovery from the January lows [6] - The rebound was supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, central banks accumulating gold, a weaker dollar, and technical corrections following the January price drop [6] Investment Strategy - The historical net inflows into gold ETFs and the subsequent price rebound signal that gold remains an essential asset in the current complex economic environment [7] - Investors are advised to adopt a rational approach to gold investment, focusing on low-cost options like gold ETFs and avoiding high leverage and chasing prices [7] Future Outlook - The Asian market is expected to continue playing a pivotal role in the global gold landscape, driven by its economic growth and capital liquidity, further solidifying gold's status as a reliable asset in uncertain times [8]

Group 1 - The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has escalated into a new phase characterized by long-range attacks and infrastructure damage, impacting global energy security and inflation expectations [2][3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky has reported over 3,300 artillery attacks in a week, with significant damage to energy and logistics facilities, leading to widespread power outages [1][2] - Ukraine's military strategy has shifted to target Russian energy infrastructure, aiming to disrupt Russia's ability to fund its military operations through oil sales [2] Group 2 - The current geopolitical situation has led to increased demand for gold as a hedge against complex risks, with prices rising approximately 0.7% to around $5,000, briefly touching $5,046 [1][3] - Analysts suggest that if gold prices can maintain momentum and break through $5,100, it could indicate a strong upward trend, while failure to do so may expose the market to potential corrections [3] - The focus for gold trading is on the $4,930 level, with strategies to buy on dips above this point and adjust positions if it falls below [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to rise due to increased safe-haven demand, driven by geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with spot gold reaching $5,071.79 per ounce, marking the largest single-day increase since 2008 [1] Group 1 - Gold prices surged by 2.7% in one trading session, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks [1] - The recent military actions, including the U.S. shooting down an Iranian drone, have enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - Analysts predict that gold prices may reach $5,100 in the near term and could hit $5,600 by the end of April, with a year-end target of $6,000 per ounce [1]