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油脂油料早报-20250805
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 03:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending July 31, 2025, was higher than expected, while the export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans for the current crop year was higher than the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the US soybean good and excellent rate was 69%, in line with expectations. The flowering rate and pod - setting rate of US soybeans showed different trends compared with the previous week and the same period last year [1]. - StoneX predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous year. The estimated production of Brazil's second - quarter corn in the 2024/25 season was also raised by 3.2% [1]. - In July 2025, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, reaching a three - year high. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. The total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports in July 2025 decreased by 25.01% compared with the previous month [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **US Soybean Export Inspection**: In the week ending July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, higher than the market forecast of 250,000 - 460,000 tons. The previous week's revised volume was 427,734 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume for the current crop year was 47,834,010 tons, compared with 43,037,528 tons in the same period last year. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons [1]. - **US Soybean Crop Growth**: As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the US soybean good and excellent rate was 69%, the same as the market expectation, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% in the same period last year. The flowering rate was 85%, up from 76% the previous week, the same as the same period last year and slightly lower than the five - year average. The pod - setting rate was 58%, up from 41% the previous week, slightly higher than the same period last year and equal to the five - year average [1]. - **Brazil's Crop Production Forecast**: StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous year due to increased planting area and crop yield. It also raised the estimated production of Brazil's second - quarter corn in the 2024/25 season by 3.2% to 111.7 million tons [1]. India's Edible Oil Imports - **Palm Oil**: In July 2025, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, lower than the 11 - month high in June [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: India's soybean oil imports in July 2025 increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, reaching a three - year high. The increase was due to the delayed shipments in June being unloaded in July [1]. - **Sunflower Oil**: India's sunflower oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons [1]. - **Total Edible Oil**: The total edible oil imports in India in July 2025 increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons, the highest level since November last year [1]. Malaysia's Palm Oil Exports - Malaysia's palm oil product exports in July 2025 were 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease compared with 1,195,265 tons in the previous month [1]. Price and Basis Information - **Spot Prices**: The report provided the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 29 to August 4, 2025 [1]. - **Basis**: The report presented the basis data of protein meals (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in different months and regions, as well as the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil in South China [1][2][3].
油脂油料早报-20250708
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 01:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents overnight market information on soybeans and rapeseed in the United States and Canada, including crop growth rates, export inspection volumes, and crop quality rates, as well as spot prices of related products [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year; the emergence rate was 96%, up from 94% the previous week and lower than 98% in the same period last year and the five - year average; the flowering rate was 32%, up from 17% the previous week, the same as last year and higher than the five - year average; the pod - setting rate was 8%, up from 3% the previous week, the same as last year and higher than the five - year average [1]. - As of the week ending July 3, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 389,364 tons, within the market forecast range; the export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons; the cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 46,253,445 tons, higher than 41,848,481 tons in the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending June 30, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed in Saskatchewan was 58.97%, and in Alberta it was 58.1%, up from 57.7% the previous week. As of the week ending July 2, the rapeseed in Manitoba was at various growth stages. The weather forecast for the next 15 days in Canada's main rapeseed - producing areas shows that the temperature will mostly be above normal and the average precipitation will be below normal [1]. Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal in Jiangsu | Rapeseed Meal in Guangdong | Soybean Oil in Jiangsu | Palm Oil in Guangzhou | Rapeseed Oil in Jiangsu | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/01 | 2830 | 2470 | 8200 | 8450 | 9630 | | 2025/07/02 | 2800 | 2460 | 8220 | 8510 | 9710 | | 2025/07/03 | 2810 | 2490 | 8210 | 8530 | 9760 | | 2025/07/04 | 2800 | 2490 | 8150 | 8520 | 9740 | | 2025/07/07 | 2790 | 2470 | 8080 | 8520 | 9670 | [2]