Workflow
农产品进出口
icon
Search documents
油脂油料早报-20250820
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:25
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report presents overnight market information on the supply and demand of various oilseeds and oils, including soybean exports, Australian rapeseed exports, EU imports, and the expected increase in Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US private exporters reported selling 228,606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - Australia's rapeseed exports in June 2025 dropped to 102,064 tons from 659,182 tons in May due to low crop inventories. The 2025/26 production is estimated at 5.97 million tons, down from 6.24 million tons in 2024/25 [1]. - From July to August 17, 2025/26, EU palm oil imports were 290,000 tons (vs. 500,000 tons last year), rapeseed imports 330,000 tons (vs. 570,000 tons), soybean imports 1.74 million tons (vs. 1.86 million tons), and soybean meal imports 2.44 million tons (vs. 2.61 million tons) [1]. - Brazilian farmers will start planting 2025/26 soybeans in about a month. The planting area is expected to increase by 2%, with a predicted yield of 173 million tons. Different institutions have varying forecasts for the area increase, ranging from 1.2% to 2.9% [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various oilseeds and oils in different regions from August 13 - 19, 2025 are provided, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2]. Oil and Oilseed Price Spreads - The report mentions the topic of oil and oilseed price spreads, but no specific content is provided [3]
油脂油料早报-20250805
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 03:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending July 31, 2025, was higher than expected, while the export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans for the current crop year was higher than the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the US soybean good and excellent rate was 69%, in line with expectations. The flowering rate and pod - setting rate of US soybeans showed different trends compared with the previous week and the same period last year [1]. - StoneX predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous year. The estimated production of Brazil's second - quarter corn in the 2024/25 season was also raised by 3.2% [1]. - In July 2025, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, reaching a three - year high. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. The total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports in July 2025 decreased by 25.01% compared with the previous month [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **US Soybean Export Inspection**: In the week ending July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, higher than the market forecast of 250,000 - 460,000 tons. The previous week's revised volume was 427,734 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume for the current crop year was 47,834,010 tons, compared with 43,037,528 tons in the same period last year. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons [1]. - **US Soybean Crop Growth**: As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the US soybean good and excellent rate was 69%, the same as the market expectation, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% in the same period last year. The flowering rate was 85%, up from 76% the previous week, the same as the same period last year and slightly lower than the five - year average. The pod - setting rate was 58%, up from 41% the previous week, slightly higher than the same period last year and equal to the five - year average [1]. - **Brazil's Crop Production Forecast**: StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous year due to increased planting area and crop yield. It also raised the estimated production of Brazil's second - quarter corn in the 2024/25 season by 3.2% to 111.7 million tons [1]. India's Edible Oil Imports - **Palm Oil**: In July 2025, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, lower than the 11 - month high in June [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: India's soybean oil imports in July 2025 increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, reaching a three - year high. The increase was due to the delayed shipments in June being unloaded in July [1]. - **Sunflower Oil**: India's sunflower oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons [1]. - **Total Edible Oil**: The total edible oil imports in India in July 2025 increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons, the highest level since November last year [1]. Malaysia's Palm Oil Exports - Malaysia's palm oil product exports in July 2025 were 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease compared with 1,195,265 tons in the previous month [1]. Price and Basis Information - **Spot Prices**: The report provided the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 29 to August 4, 2025 [1]. - **Basis**: The report presented the basis data of protein meals (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in different months and regions, as well as the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil in South China [1][2][3].
豆粕周报:等待月底面积发布,连粕或震荡调整-20250623
Report Title - "Bean Meal Weekly Report" [1] Report Date - June 23, 2025 [3] Core Viewpoint - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to close at 1067.25 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.12%; the September bean meal contract rose 26 to close at 3067 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.85%; the South China bean meal spot price rose 40 to close at 2920 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.39%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 5 to close at 2679 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.19%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 10 to close at 2570 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.39% [4][7] - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated at a high level during the week. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the volatile and stronger oil prices provided support, and the impact of the U.S. biodiesel policy proposal was gradually digested. The weather in the U.S. soybean producing areas was generally good, providing no driving factors. The U.S. soybean crushing volume in May was lower than market expectations. Under multiple factors, the outer market fluctuated near the resistance level. The domestic oil mill crushing start - up rate continued to rise, increasing the bean meal supply. With no purchase of soybeans for the fourth quarter yet, the expected tight supply in the distant future supported the Dalian bean meal to fluctuate strongly [4][7] - The good weather in the U.S. soybean producing areas provides no driving factors. Concerns about Sino - U.S. tariffs remain, and the domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The risk of soybean shortage will also support the Brazilian soybean premium. The U.S. soybeans may fluctuate and adjust. The oil mill crushing start - up rate continues to rise, and the bean meal is in the process of inventory accumulation. However, the terminal demand is strong, and the feed enterprise pick - up volume is at a high level in the same period. With the domestic supply tending to be loose, the spot supply is also becoming loose, and the basis is generally weak. Currently, it is suppressed by factors such as weather and loose spot supply, and at the same time, it is supported by the expected tight supply in the distant future. The Dalian bean meal may fluctuate and adjust [4][12] Market Data | Contract | June 20 | June 13 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1067.25 | 1068.50 | - 1.25 | - 0.12% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 467.00 | 454.00 | 13.00 | 2.86% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 467.00 | 453.00 | 14.00 | 3.09% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Disk | 59.99 | 133.72 | - 73.72 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Bean Meal | 3067.00 | 3041.00 | 26.00 | 0.85% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2679.00 | 2674.00 | 5.00 | 0.19% | Yuan per ton | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 388.00 | 367.00 | 21.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2920.00 | 2860.00 | 60.00 | 2.10% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2920.00 | 2880.00 | 40.00 | 1.39% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 147.00 | - 161.00 | 14.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook U.S. Soybean Conditions - As of the week of June 15, 2025, the excellent - good rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, the previous week was 68%, and the same period last year was 70%. The planting progress was 93%, lower than the market expectation of 95%, the previous week was 90%, and the same period last year was 92%, with a five - year average of 94%. The emergence rate was 84%, the previous week was 75%, the same period last year was 80%, and the five - year average was 83%. As of the week of June 17, 2025, about 13% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the previous week was 13%, and the same period last year was 2% [8] - As of the week of June 12, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 21.58 tons, in line with expectations (the previous market forecast was 17.5 - 45 tons), the previous week's revised value was 55.86 tons, and the initial value was 54.7 tons. The soybean export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. So far in this crop year, the cumulative U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 4541 tons, compared with 4088 tons in the same period of the previous year [8] - As of the week of June 12, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current year increased by 54 tons, the previous week was 6.1 tons. The cumulative export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 4913 tons, with a sales progress of 97.6%, compared with 95.8% in the same period last year. The net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in that week was 7.5 tons, and the cumulative sales volume in this season was 119.3 tons, compared with 111.8 tons in the same period last year [9] - The NOPA report showed that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in May was 192.829 million bushels, a 1.4% increase from April's 190.266 million bushels and a 5% increase from May 2024's 183.625 million bushels. As of May 31, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member units dropped to 1.373 billion pounds, a 10.1% decrease from the end of April's 1.527 billion pounds and a 20.3% decrease from the same period last year's 1.724 billion pounds [9] - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit (spread between soybeans, soybean oil, and bean meal) was 1.87 US dollars per bushel, the previous week was 1.49 US dollars per bushel; the truck - board price of soybean oil in central Illinois was 47.36 cents per pound, the previous week was 46.23 cents per pound; the wholesale price of 48% bean meal in central Illinois was 288.25 US dollars per short - ton, the previous week was 290.85 US dollars per short - ton; the truck price of No. 1 yellow soybeans in central Illinois was 10.42 US dollars per bushel, the previous week was 10.73 US dollars per bushel [10] South American Soybean Conditions - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to reach 14.37 million tons, previously expected to be 14.08 million tons [10] - The Buenos Aires Exchange reported that as of the week of June 18, 2025, the soybean harvesting progress in Argentina was 96.5%, the previous week was 93.2%, and the same period last year was 98% [10] Domestic Conditions - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.996 million tons, a decrease of 106,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 474,100 tons from the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 410,000 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 584,900 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.6056 million tons, a decrease of 824,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 286,400 tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 7.427 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 352,700 tons from the same period last year [11] - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the daily average weekly trading volume of national bean meal was 392,450 tons, including 87,990 tons of spot trading and 304,460 tons of forward trading. The previous week's daily average trading volume was 347,700 tons; the daily average weekly pick - up volume of bean meal was 208,980 tons, the previous week was 194,760 tons; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.3842 million tons, the previous week was 2.2587 million tons; the bean meal inventory days of feed enterprises was 7.74 days, the previous week was 6.83 days [11] Industry News 1. Secex data showed that Brazil exported 6,980,666.88 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of June, with a daily average export volume of 698,066.69 tons, roughly the same as the daily average export volume of 697,980.60 tons in June last year. The total export volume in June last year was 13,959,612.09 tons [13] 2. According to foreign media reports, the Mato Grosso State Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) announced that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso State from June 9 - 13 was 515.08 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 558.66 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous week. The bean meal price in that state was 1619.60 Brazilian reals per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5670.10 Brazilian reals per ton [13] 3. According to foreign media reports, the French Ministry of Agriculture predicted that the winter barley and rapeseed production in France in 2025 will strongly rebound compared with last year's rainfall - affected production. In the first forecast of this year's harvest, the French Ministry of Agriculture said that the winter rapeseed production in France in 2025 will reach 4.2 million tons, a 9.4% increase from 2024 [13] 4. According to foreign news, industry analysts said that the U.S. soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 118 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in the June supply - demand report that the U.S. soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 118.1 million tons. A previous survey showed that analysts on average expected the U.S. soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season to be 52.5 bushels, and the production to be 4.34 billion bushels. It is expected that the U.S. soybean planting area this year will be 84 million acres, a 3.4% decrease from the previous year and 500,000 acres higher than the pre - estimated value announced in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's March planting intention report [14] 5. According to foreign news, industry analysts said that the soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast. The weather forecast shows that it will be drier in the next few days in that country. Although the recent weather has been humid, the crop harvest season is almost over. The current pre - estimated values of soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/25 season by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the Rosario Grain Exchange are 50.3 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively [14] 6. According to foreign news, the European Vegetable Oil and Protein Meal Industry Federation (FEDIOL) said that in May, the rapeseed crushing volume in the 27 EU countries + the UK was 1.318 million tons, compared with 1.519 million tons in April; the soybean crushing volume was 1.332 million tons, compared with 1.328 million tons in April. The total oilseed crushing volume in Europe in May was 3.053 million tons, higher than 3.179 million tons in April. The crushing volume of enterprises participating in FEDIOL accounts for 80% of the total crushing volume of soybeans, sunflower seeds, and rapeseed in the 27 EU countries and the UK (including FEDIOL members and non - FEDIOL members) [15] 7. According to foreign media reports, analysts pointed out that the weather forecast shows that there will be rainfall in the Canadian prairie area, which will help relieve the drought. Currently, about 40% of the prairie area is experiencing drought. Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the sowing area report on June 27. Its March report showed that the rapeseed planting area was 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from the 2024/25 season [15] 8. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that the predicted total cost of U.S. soybean production in 2025 is 639.15 US dollars per acre, and the predicted total cost in 2026 is 650.34 US dollars per acre [15] Related Charts The report includes multiple charts, such as the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rate trends, regional crushing profits, bean meal main contract trends, and various inventory and trading volume - related charts [16 - 55]
油脂油料早报-20250619
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:59
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the week ending June 12, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 600,000 tons, with 0 - 400,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 200,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 150,000 - 450,000 tons, with 150,000 - 350,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 100,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season. US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 32,000 tons, with 0 - 22,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 10,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season [1]. - The estimated soybean production in Argentina for the 2024/2025 season is 4.88 million tons, slightly higher than the previous estimate. The US Department of Agriculture predicts the production to be 4.9 million tons, the same as the May estimate. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the Rosario Grain Exchange currently estimate the production to be 5.03 million tons and 4.85 million tons respectively [1]. - As of now, Argentina's soybean harvest rate has reached 95%, slightly lower than 97% in the same period last year. The weather is expected to be drier in the next two weeks, which will help complete the remaining harvest on time [1]. - In May, China's palm oil imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. From January to May, palm oil imports were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.6%. In May, China's soybean oil imports were 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.6%. From January to May, soybean oil imports were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 75.8%. In May, China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3%. From January to May, imports were 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.0% [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Export Sales Forecast - US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 600,000 tons as of the week ending June 12, with 0 - 400,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 200,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season [1]. - US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 150,000 - 450,000 tons, with 150,000 - 350,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 100,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season [1]. - US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 32,000 tons, with 0 - 22,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 10,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season [1]. Argentina's Soybean Production - The estimated soybean production in Argentina for the 2024/2025 season is 4.88 million tons, slightly higher than the previous estimate. The US Department of Agriculture predicts 4.9 million tons, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates 5.03 million tons, and the Rosario Grain Exchange estimates 4.85 million tons [1]. - As of now, Argentina's soybean harvest rate has reached 95%, slightly lower than 97% in the same period last year. The weather will be drier in the next two weeks, helping to complete the remaining harvest on time [1]. China's Oil Imports - In May, China's palm oil imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. From January to May, imports were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.6% [1]. - In May, China's soybean oil imports were 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.6%. From January to May, imports were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 75.8% [1]. - In May, China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3%. From January to May, imports were 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.0% [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions from June 12 to June 18, 2025, are presented, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2]. Basis and Spread - Multiple charts show the basis and spread of protein meals and oils, including the basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil at different delivery months in different regions, as well as the price spreads between different varieties and different delivery months [3][5][8].