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国投期货农产品日报-20250924
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 13:31
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No. 1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ななな [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ななな [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: な☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including beans, corn, pigs, and eggs, and provides short - term and long - term investment outlooks based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and seasonal factors [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean No. 1 - Domestic soybean prices rebounded from a low level with large - scale position reduction, and new - season soybean quotes are weak. The gap between domestic and imported soybeans widened, and China is accelerating the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The supply gap in Q1 next year may disappear, and the US soybean market may be pressured [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The decline of soybean meal futures narrowed. Affected by Argentine policies, it remains weak. Import volume should be continuously monitored. The domestic oil mill operation rate is high, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term market is bearish, and a long - term cautious bullish view is held [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - After Argentina lifted export taxes, China is speeding up soybean purchases. The supply gap in Q1 next year may disappear. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle. The US soybean market may be pressured, and the overall oil and oilseed prices may face downward pressure. In the medium term, soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed oil - meal ratio is rising. Rapeseed meal is under pressure due to Argentine policies, low protein price difference, and seasonal demand decline. Australian rapeseed will improve domestic supply. The rapeseed oil - meal ratio is expected to rise, and the rapeseed futures price will be under short - term pressure [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures fluctuated strongly. The market is optimistic about the new - season output, but the opening price has been falling. With the increase in new - grain supply, downstream demand is weak, and the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures rebounded with position reduction at a low level, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the re - entry of secondary fattening and government policies. There is a plan to reduce production capacity by 1 million heads before the end of January next year. The current futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - Egg futures adjusted weakly, and the spot price was stable. The spot price may not rise significantly before the holidays and will be weak after the holidays. The industry needs to reduce production capacity. The pressure of newly - laid hens will decrease by the end of the year. A long position in the far - month contract for H1 next year can be considered [9]