Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is "Neutral" [4][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean price oscillated recently. In the short - term, the gap in domestic soybean inventory supports price resilience, but the increase in imported soybean arrivals and weak demand for soybean meal limit the upside. In the long - term, the good weather in new - season soybean production areas and the global supply surplus will drag down the domestic price. Policy factors also affect the supply expectation, and the price will maintain a range - bound movement [3] - The domestic peanut price also oscillated. In the short - term, the low inventory of old peanuts and the tight supply of high - quality peanuts support the price, but the expected supply pressure in September and potential inventory pressure may affect the price. In the long - term, if there is no extreme weather in 2025, the new - season peanut supply will be abundant, and the support level may decline. There are also uncertainties such as weather, import arrivals, and the impact of soybean production on peanut prices [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2509 contract was 4111.00 yuan/ton yesterday, up 7.00 yuan/ton (+0.17%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible soybean spot was A09 + 189, down 7 (-32.14%) from the previous day [1] Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 0.3%. As of the close, soybean futures fell between 2.75 and 10.25 cents. The prices of different contracts are as follows: July contract down 7.50 cents to 1024.25 cents/bushel; August contract down 10.25 cents to 1021.25 cents/bushel; November contract down 3.25 cents to 1017.50 cents/bushel [2] - On July 19, the prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various markets in Heilongjiang remained unchanged from the previous day [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short - term: There is a gap in domestic soybean inventory, but the increase in imported soybean arrivals (estimated at 9.5 million tons in July) and weak demand for soybean meal limit the upside [3] - Long - term: The good weather in new - season soybean production areas and the global supply surplus will drag down the domestic price, and the weak domestic food consumption also restricts the price increase [3] Policy Factors - Pay attention to the provincial reserve auction volume in July and the rotation rhythm of Sinograin. If the auction transaction rate exceeds 70%, it may strengthen the expectation of loose supply, but the purchase price of Sinograin provides some support [3] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8176.00 yuan/ton yesterday, up 56.00 yuan/ton (+0.69%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8900.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The basis was PK10 + 24.00, down 156.00 (-86.67%) from the previous day [4] Market Information - The current prices of peanuts in different regions are as follows: Henan Zhengyang Baisha general rice is about 4.50 - 4.60 yuan/jin; Shandong Linyi Junan Haohua general rice is about 4.10 yuan/jin; Liaoning Changtu 308 general rice is about 4.50 - 4.60 yuan/jin; Xingcheng Huayu 23 general rice is about 4.50 yuan/jin; Jilin 308 general rice purchase price is about 4.50 - 4.60 yuan/jin [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short - term: The inventory of old peanuts is low, and the high - quality peanuts support the price. However, the delayed arrival of imported peanuts and the upcoming new - season peanuts may bring supply pressure in September, and the demand vacuum after the oil mills stop purchasing may also affect the price [5][6] - Long - term: If there is no extreme weather in 2025, the supply of new - season peanuts will be abundant, and the decrease in planting costs may lead to a downward shift in the support level [6] Uncertainties - The weather during the key growth period from April to July may cause yield fluctuations; the concentrated arrival of peanuts from Senegal after the port re - opens may overlap with the new - season peanuts; the bumper harvest of South American and North American soybeans may suppress the price of peanut meal and affect the peanut price [6]