Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [7] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from rising oil prices, which may drive up agricultural product prices, particularly beef prices in the U.S. [3] - The supply-demand balance for corn is tightening, with prices expected to recover from historical lows [15] - Soybean prices are at historical lows, with potential for a reversal due to rising oil prices and demand for soybean crushing [30] - Wheat supply remains ample, with prices expected to stabilize at the bottom [43] - Sugar production is expected to remain strong, with attention on oil price fluctuations and import dynamics [53] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA's March supply-demand report indicates a 0.30 percentage point increase in the global ending stocks-to-use ratio for the 2025/26 season, while China's ratio remains unchanged [15] - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with expectations for a gradual increase supported by strong demand [18] Soybeans - The USDA's report shows a reduction in global soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season, with a decrease of 0.01 percentage points in the stocks-to-use ratio to 29.54% [30] - Short-term price support is expected from rising oil prices, while long-term trends are anticipated to improve [32] Wheat - The USDA's report predicts a 0.10 percentage point decrease in the global ending stocks-to-use ratio for the 2025/26 season, indicating a continued ample supply [43] - Domestic wheat prices are expected to maintain a bottoming trend due to sufficient supply [46] Sugar - The domestic sugar market is projected to remain in surplus, with production expected to increase by 540,000 tons to 11.7 million tons for the 2025/26 season [53] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring oil price fluctuations and import dynamics for future price movements [53] Beef - The USDA forecasts a 0.73% year-on-year decrease in U.S. beef production for 2026, with prices expected to maintain an upward trend [3] - Domestic beef prices are anticipated to rise due to reduced production capacity and lower imports [3] Dairy - The USDA predicts a slight decrease in U.S. milk ending stocks for 2026, with expectations for price stability driven by limited production growth and increased export demand [3] Pork - The USDA's report indicates that U.S. pork production will remain stable in 2026, with prices expected to experience high volatility [4] - Domestic production capacity is being managed steadily, which may support industry profitability [4] Poultry - The U.S. chicken market is expected to recover, with a projected increase in production and consumption for 2026 [6] - Domestic demand recovery is anticipated to support poultry prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Three-star (★★★)**: Soybean No. 1, Rapeseed Meal, Corn [1] - **Other Ratings**: The specific meaning of "ななな" and "なな女" and "なな☆" is unclear; according to the star description, white stars represent a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability, one star represents a long/short bias with weak operability on the disk, two stars represent a clear long/short trend with the market fermenting on the disk, and three stars represent a clearer long/short trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][8] 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products. The ongoing Middle - East situation and energy price fluctuations have a significant impact on agricultural product prices. Factors such as the cost of fertilizers, international shipping prices, and policies of major exporting countries all affect the supply and price of agricultural products. Different agricultural products have different price trends and influencing factors, and investors need to pay attention to short - term market fluctuations and risks [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No. 1 - The price of the main soybean No. 1 futures contract fluctuates strongly. The spot price of domestic soybeans follows the futures and rises. Since March, the cost of soybean imports in China has increased. The rise in global natural gas prices has brought risks of fertilizer supply interruption and cost increase for new - season crops. Short - term attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation and energy prices [1] Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal - The ongoing US - Iran war has led to high international crude oil prices, driving up the prices of various fertilizers. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up international shipping prices, supporting the price of imported soybeans. However, the relaxation of Brazil's soybean export inspection policy has caused a decline in US soybean and Dalian soybean prices. The National Grain and Oil Information Center expects the domestic soybean crushing volume in March to be about 7.5 million tons. Rapeseed meal prices follow soybean prices with greater price elasticity. Short - term futures prices will follow the war situation and Brazil's shipping situation [2] Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - The tense Middle - East situation has increased the cost of agricultural products and improved the marginal demand for biodiesel. Indonesia may restrict palm oil exports. Since March, the cost of soybean imports in China has increased. The narrowing of the price difference between biodiesel and petro - diesel has promoted the rise of vegetable oil prices. The rise in global natural gas prices has brought risks to new - season crops' fertilizers. Short - term attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation and energy prices [3] Corn - The closing prices at Beigang ports have decreased. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong corn deep - processing enterprises has changed, and the spot purchase price in Shandong has first risen and may then be corrected. The inventory at Beigang ports and in deep - processing enterprises has increased. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress in the Northeast, state - reserve auction information, and futures capital trends. After the Middle - East situation stabilizes, Dalian corn futures may return to fundamentals [5] Live Pigs - The near - month contracts of live - pig futures have increased in positions and broken through to the downside. The 05 contract still has a premium over the spot, and the high premium has narrowed. Pig prices are in the process of a second bottom - building. The出栏 weight is at a five - year high, indicating high inventory pressure. The rise in feed raw material prices has expanded breeding losses. The reduction of breeding sows has slowed down. Potential supporting factors include second - round fattening, frozen - meat storage, etc. It is expected that the spot price will remain low for a long time, and long positions in far - month contracts can be considered after the premium narrows [6] Eggs - The elimination age of laying hens has increased, and the price of eliminated hens has strengthened, indicating a slowdown in the elimination rhythm. The chicken - chick replenishment from January to February 2026 has recovered compared to the second half of 2025 but is still slightly lower year - on - year. The spot price of eggs shows signs of rising after the Spring Festival. It is expected that the number of newly - opened laying hens in the first half of 2026 will be small, and the spot price has the basis to strengthen. The futures price has a premium over the spot, and a long - position strategy can be considered at low prices [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products industry [1][4]. Core Views - The pig industry is expected to see a reduction in production capacity, which will support long-term prices [1]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to experience a price turning point due to ongoing cow herd reduction [2]. - The beef market is entering a new price increase cycle, with expectations for a reversal in the beef cycle [1][3]. - The poultry sector is expected to benefit from seasonal demand recovery, with limited supply fluctuations [1][3]. - The feed industry is likely to see increased industrialization and specialization, enhancing competitive advantages for leading companies [3]. Summary by Sections Pig Industry - As of March 6, the price of live pigs is 10.29 CNY/kg, down 4.72% week-on-week and down 28.89% year-on-year [1][13]. - The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 339 CNY/head, down 5% week-on-week [1][13]. - The industry is experiencing a controlled reduction in capacity, which is expected to improve cash flow for leading companies [3]. Dairy Industry - The average price of raw milk in major production areas is 3.03 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 2% year-on-year [2]. - The reduction in dairy cow numbers is expected to continue, potentially leading to a price turning point [2][3]. Beef Industry - The price of fattened bulls is 25.20 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week and up 5.88% year-on-year [1][15]. - The average market price for beef is 62.00 CNY/kg, up 0.19% week-on-week and up 20.09% year-on-year [1][15]. Poultry Industry - The price of broiler chickens is 7.00 CNY/kg, down 3% week-on-week but up 8% year-on-year [1][14]. - The price of chicken eggs in major production areas is 2.95 CNY/jin, up 0.68% week-on-week and up 5.73% year-on-year [1][14]. Feed Industry - The report highlights that feed companies are expected to benefit from technological and service advantages as industrialization deepens [3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Livestock: YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming [3]. - Pork: HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, MuYuan Co., Wen's Food [3]. - Poultry: LiHua Co., YiSheng Co., ShengNong Development [3]. - Feed: HaiDa Group [3]. - Pet Industry: GuaiBao Pet [3].

Summary of Agricultural Products Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the agricultural products industry in China, particularly corn and sugar markets, as well as related commodities like palm oil and cotton. Key Points on Corn Market - **Record Corn Production**: In 2025, China's corn production reached a historical high of approximately 288 million to 305 million tons, benefiting from favorable weather and improved planting techniques [5][1]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: Despite the high production, demand has slightly decreased due to a decline in pig and poultry stocks and poor profitability in deep processing enterprises, leading to an improved supply-demand situation for corn [5][1]. - **Import Reduction**: Since October 2024, corn imports have significantly decreased, with only 1.8 million tons imported in the 2025 fiscal year, indicating a move towards self-sufficiency [6][7]. - **Market Volatility**: Northeast traders are holding back on sales, leading to potential market pressure as weather changes could cause spoilage, particularly around the Lantern Festival [9][10]. - **Price Trends**: Corn prices are currently high at around 2,300 yuan per ton, but short-term weather factors may cause fluctuations [10][11]. Sugar Market Insights - **Production and Sales Pressure**: The new sugar season has seen a decrease in production to about 6.89 million tons, with sales lagging behind, resulting in increased inventory levels [14][15]. - **Import Surge**: Sugar imports rose significantly to 4.9 million tons in 2025 due to low international prices, although overall sugar consumption has not seen a corresponding increase [15][16]. - **Price Stability**: Sugar prices have struggled to break through 5,300 yuan per ton, reflecting the sales challenges faced by sugar factories [14][15]. Palm Oil Market Dynamics - **Dependence on Imports**: China's palm oil consumption is entirely reliant on imports from Malaysia and Indonesia, with increasing demand driven by biodiesel policies [17][18]. - **Price Outlook**: Palm oil prices are expected to rise due to stable demand and limited new planting areas, although global supply remains ample [18][23]. Cotton Market Trends - **Production Levels**: Cotton production in China is near historical highs, with demand gradually recovering, particularly post-sanctions on Xinjiang cotton [19][20]. - **Price Stability**: Cotton prices have shown a steady increase, with expectations for further growth due to improved demand and potential reductions in planting areas [19][20]. Additional Insights - **Impact of Oil Prices**: Rising crude oil prices are expected to directly influence agricultural product prices, particularly sugar and palm oil, due to their energy attributes [21][22]. - **Future Planting Trends**: In Xinjiang, policy changes are leading to increased corn planting at the expense of cotton, indicating a significant shift in crop production strategies [24][1]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the agricultural products market in China.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue of R$470 million and an adjusted EBITDA of R$71.3 million, with a loss of R$61.8 million for the semester, indicating a challenging period due to high incurred expenses and low asset classification [12][32] - The previous year’s loss for the same period was R$77 million, showing an improvement in financial performance despite ongoing challenges [32][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sugarcane production faced significant challenges, with productivity dropping to 970,000 tons compared to 1.3 million tons the previous year, primarily due to adverse weather conditions and operational issues [39][40] - The company experienced a positive performance in soy and corn, with savings in fertilizers contributing to better results, although these were not sufficient to offset the losses in sugarcane [33][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brazil is expected to have a super harvest, with soy stocks exceeding 50 million tons, leading to lower prices and premium perspectives [12][13] - The cattle market is recovering, with optimistic price expectations due to a scarcity of supply, while ethanol prices have shown significant fluctuations [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on reducing operational volatility by diversifying its crop portfolio and improving efficiency through technology such as telemetrics [10][11][16] - There is a strategic emphasis on irrigated agriculture for cotton production to enhance productivity and manage costs effectively [49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the recovery of sugarcane production in the next harvest, citing improvements in management practices and fertilizer application [51][56] - The overall sentiment regarding the agricultural sector is cautious, with expectations of stable productivity but challenges related to high capital costs and external market pressures [55][61] Other Important Information - The company has a debt of R$886 million, with a net cash position of R$802 million, indicating a stable financial position despite the seasonal cash flow challenges [42][44] - The company is actively monitoring input costs and currency fluctuations to optimize its operational efficiency [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on cotton productivity shift - Management noted that reliance on cotton in Bahia has led to high production costs, prompting a shift towards irrigated agriculture to stabilize production and improve margins [46][47] Question: Future outlook for sugarcane - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in the last harvest but expressed optimism for recovery in the upcoming cycle, driven by improved management and fertilizer application [56][57]

Summary of Conference Call on Agricultural Products Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the agricultural products industry, focusing on corn, wheat, soybeans, and feed production in China for the years 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Corn Market Outlook - In 2025, domestic feed production and sales exceeded expectations, with corn prices supported by higher-than-expected minimum prices for wheat [1]. - A significant decline in corn imports by over 80% in 2025 is attributed to increased domestic production, with wheat output reaching 140 million tons and corn exceeding 300 million tons [1][4]. - The corn supply is expected to be relatively loose in 2026, leading to stable prices [4]. Wheat and Feed Demand - The demand for corn is expected to be suppressed due to the increasing use of wheat in feed, driven by national policies promoting reduction and substitution [1][5]. - When the price difference between wheat and other agricultural products is below 200 RMB/ton, the substitution ratio of wheat for corn and soybean meal increases [6]. - The feed industry is nearing a growth ceiling, with limited growth in soybean meal demand due to declining profitability in the livestock sector [8]. Soybean Market Dynamics - Global soybean planting area continues to grow, particularly in Brazil, which has improved its transportation and storage capabilities, reducing costs and enhancing supply efficiency [3][7]. - The expected price range for domestic soybean meal futures in 2026 is between 2,650 and 3,400 RMB/ton, with spot prices potentially reaching around 3,300 RMB/ton by March-April [3][10]. Feed Industry Trends - The feed composition is expected to shift, with wheat maintaining a higher proportion, which may negatively impact the demand for corn and soybean meal [6][8]. - The domestic soybean crushing capacity is saturated, leading to no tight supply issues, although local price discrepancies exist [9]. External Factors Influencing Prices - The agricultural market has shifted to a buyer's market due to global grain abundance, with rising transportation costs being manageable through upstream profit compression [3][10]. - The impact of rising oil prices on agricultural commodities is significant, as it influences financial markets and commodity prices, although the effect may be delayed [11]. Competitive Landscape for Domestic Feed Enterprises - Domestic feed companies are increasingly expanding overseas due to market saturation at home and the competitive advantage in Southeast Asia, where local farming practices lag behind [12]. - The complexity of feed formulations and strong cost optimization capabilities provide a competitive edge for Chinese companies in international markets [12]. Additional Important Insights - The livestock sector is facing profitability challenges, particularly in the pig and poultry industries, which may limit future demand for soybean meal [8][12]. - The reliance on soybean meal in pig feed is low, with potential for further reduction as feed formulations evolve [12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the agricultural products market, particularly focusing on corn, wheat, and soybeans, along with the implications for feed production and pricing trends.

Core Insights - The "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price Index" increased to 130.67, up by 0.11 points from the previous day, while the "Vegetable Basket" price index rose to 133.68, up by 0.13 points [1] Group 1: Price Changes in Key Agricultural Products - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.61 yuan/kg, up by 0.1% from yesterday [1] - The average price of beef is 65.93 yuan/kg, down by 0.1% from yesterday [1] - The average price of mutton is 63.76 yuan/kg, up by 0.4% from yesterday [1] - The average price of eggs is 8.62 yuan/kg, up by 0.5% from yesterday [1] - The average price of broiler chicken is 17.28 yuan/kg, up by 3.6% from yesterday [1] - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables is 5.62 yuan/kg, up by 0.7% from yesterday [1] - The average price of 6 monitored fruits is 7.91 yuan/kg, down by 0.3% from yesterday [1] Group 2: Price Changes in Fish and Other Products - The average price of crucian carp is 19.48 yuan/kg, up by 0.4% from yesterday [1] - The average price of carp is 14.00 yuan/kg, up by 0.9% from yesterday [1] - The average price of white catfish is 10.53 yuan/kg, up by 5.9% from yesterday [1] - The average price of large hairtail is 43.25 yuan/kg, up by 4.0% from yesterday [1] Group 3: Price Fluctuations in Monitored Products - The top five price increases among 46 monitored fresh agricultural products include white catfish (5.9%), large hairtail (4.0%), broiler chicken (3.6%), scallions (3.4%), and flower catfish (3.0%) [2] - The top five price decreases include pineapple (4.8%), green beans (2.2%), ginger (0.9%), yellow croaker (0.7%), and white radish (0.6%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tomato prices across multiple regions has raised public concern, with consumers humorously noting that "eggs are not even worth a tomato" [2]. Price Trends - Tomato prices have shown fluctuations, with some prices reaching as high as 10 yuan for two tomatoes in Beijing [3]. - Online platforms like JD and Hema report prices for ordinary tomatoes at approximately 8.79 yuan per jin, down from 9.79 yuan per jin the previous week [5]. - The average wholesale price of tomatoes at Beijing's Xinfadi market is currently between 3.8 to 3.9 yuan per jin, compared to 2.1 to 2.2 yuan per jin during the same period last year, indicating a significant year-on-year increase [5][7]. Causes of Price Fluctuations - The primary reason for the recent price increase is attributed to abnormal weather conditions impacting production [8]. - Flooding in certain areas has disrupted local vegetable production and transportation, exacerbating supply issues [9]. - The planting and harvesting cycle of tomatoes, which takes 3 to 4 months, has also contributed to the supply constraints as farmers reduced planting areas in response to low prices earlier in the year [9]. Future Price Outlook - Experts predict that tomato prices will gradually decline to more reasonable levels by February, as supply stabilizes and new crops come to market [12]. - The introduction of tomatoes from southern regions is expected to fill supply gaps in northern markets, further contributing to price stabilization [10][12]. - The overall supply of tomatoes in China remains robust, with an annual production of approximately 66 million tons from around 16 million acres, ensuring sufficient market supply [12]. Market Adjustments - Various regions are implementing strategies to ensure continuous market supply, such as staggered planting schedules [11]. - The agricultural sector is enhancing its distribution systems to improve efficiency and stabilize prices, with initiatives like the "green channel" for fresh produce transportation being emphasized [13].

Core Viewpoint - The price of tomatoes has surged significantly, with average prices reaching 7.56 yuan/kg in January 2026, a 77% increase from 4.27 yuan/kg in January 2025, driven by extreme weather and reduced supply [1][11]. Price Trends - The average wholesale price of tomatoes from January 1 to 16, 2026, was 8.61 yuan/kg, up 80.9% from 4.76 yuan/kg in January 2025 [1][11]. - Despite some price corrections, overall prices remain at historically high levels [1]. Supply Chain Challenges - Extreme weather in northern production areas has led to a significant drop in tomato yields, with reports of reductions varying by region and management practices [2][11]. - The combination of heavy rainfall and viral diseases has caused supply imbalances, affecting retail prices [2][11]. Farmer Experiences - Farmers in Shouguang reported that extreme weather disrupted the growth cycle of tomatoes, leading to lower yields and delayed market entry [3][4]. - The cost of production has increased due to adverse weather conditions, with total costs rising from approximately 4,000 yuan to over 6,000 yuan per greenhouse [4][6]. Market Segmentation - High-end tomato brands, such as "Cui Xi Yi Pin," have maintained stable prices around 20 yuan/kg, contrasting with the volatility in the broader market [8][9]. - The market shows a clear segmentation, with different pricing for various tomato types based on quality and packaging [10]. Future Outlook - Experts predict that the high prices for tomatoes may persist until late March 2026, after which a seasonal decline is expected [13]. - The current price surge is seen as a normal market reaction to supply shocks, with potential for market self-regulation as consumers may shift to alternative vegetables [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Malaysia Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects the crude palm oil price in February to fluctuate between 4,000 - 4,300 ringgit per ton (US$986.32 - 1,060.29) due to seasonal supply constraints and fundamental changes [3] - Malaysian palm oil production from January 1 - 20, 2026 decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, with a 16.49% decrease in yield and a 0.08% increase in oil extraction rate [3] - Brazilian soybean harvest rate as of January 17 was 2.3%, higher than last week and last year, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest, while good US domestic crushing data provides support for US soybean prices [3] - Night - trading of oils and fats was strong. Strong exports and lower production in Malaysia, along with tariff cuts, support palm oil prices. Concerns over Indonesian production and the seasonal production decline also contribute to the strength of palm oil. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may suppress rapeseed oil prices [3] - Domestic soybean supply will be gradually released through state - reserve auctions, and high domestic soybean meal inventories and the expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest will continue to put pressure on prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8,044, 8,832, 8,947, 2,725, 2,377, and 8,844 respectively. The price changes were 12, 84, - 1, - 11, 6, and 26, with percentage changes of 0.15%, 0.96%, - 3.15%, - 0.40%, 0.25%, and 0.29% respectively [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values, such as Y9 - 1 at - 364 (previous - 390), P9 - 1 at 62 (previous - 26), etc [2] International Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,065 ringgit/ton, 1,053.00 cents/bushel, 52.52 cents/pound, and 291.50 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were 32.0, - 3.3, 0.0, and 1.6, with percentage changes of 0.79%, - 0.31%, 0.02%, and 0.55% respectively [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have different percentage changes. For example, the spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8,580 and 8,620 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.12% and 0.00% [2] - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of different products varies, such as 536 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and 18 for Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil [2] - **Spot Spreads**: The current spot spreads of different product combinations have changed compared to the previous values, such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil at - 150 (same as before) [2] Import and Profit - The current import profit values of different products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil is - 195 (previous - 237) [2] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 26,985, 1,148, 1,864, 32,440, 59, and 0 respectively. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased from 1,935 to 1,864, and the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 84 to 59 [2]