研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/13 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/06 | 2050 | 2100 | 2140 | 2250 | -54 | 0 98 | 2700 | 2800 | 186 | 28 | | 2025/11/07 | 2050 | 2110 | 2120 | 2250 | -39 | -10 115 | 2700 | 2800 | 193 | 28 | | 2025/11/10 | 2050 | 2120 | 2140 | 2270 | -44 | 0 142 | 2700 | 2800 | 176 | 8 | | 2025/11/11 | 2070 | 2130 | 2150 | 2300 | -47 | 20 164 | 2700 | 2800 | 16 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - The three major fats and oils are under overall pressure. The core contradiction lies in the game between the global fat and oil supply tending to be loose and the seasonal weakening of demand, coupled with increased uncertainty in biodiesel policies. Technically, the three major fats and oils continue to explore the bottom and build a base [8][9]. Live Pigs - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may generally maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, the secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the terminal consumption may gradually improve, but the overall increase may be limited. Overall, the spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and supply is sufficient. Substitute advantages are weakening, and future imports may remain at a low level. On the demand side, feed demand is improving, and deep - processing enterprises' procurement enthusiasm has increased. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal - In the short - term, soybean meal should be treated with caution and a slightly bullish attitude. The risk lies in the collapse of the cost - increase expectation if China only makes a small amount of purchases of US soybeans [147]. Eggs - The spot price may not have a sustained rebound unless there is emotional support. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Palm oil continued to decline, with weak demand and ample supply. Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is estimated to increase [8]. - Soybean oil futures slightly followed the decline and made narrow - range adjustments. High domestic soybean oil inventory and palm oil's weakness suppressed prices, while import costs provided support [9]. - Rapeseed oil fluctuated sideways. The supply is still uncertain, and the inventory is at a relatively high level but is being depleted [9]. 2. Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of November 6, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton weekly, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton weekly, and the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased by 210 yuan/ton weekly [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Fats and Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 44th week, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 2.21% week - on - week and increased by 16.71% year - on - year [23]. - **Domestic Fat and Oil and Oilseed Supply**: As of the end of the 44th week, the soybean opening rate of domestic major soybean oil mills decreased. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 231.10 million tons, a decrease of 18.13 million tons from last week [26]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.31% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low [35]. - **CFTC Positions**: No specific analysis provided in the text. Live Pigs 1. Market Review - Spot prices continued to be weak due to oversupply. The national average live pig slaughter price this week was 12.16 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. Futures prices rebounded slightly [50]. 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply: Breeding Sows Inventory**: The price of binary sows was relatively stable, and the replenishment willingness of farmers was low. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly [53]. - **Medium - Term Supply: Piglet Inventory**: The price of 15 - kg piglets increased slightly this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [72]. - **Short - Term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Hogging and Secondary Fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales increased in late October [73][76]. - **Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Weight**: In October 2025, the actual sales of commercial pigs exceeded the plan. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight this week increased slightly [80][81]. - **Import Supply: Pork Imports**: In September, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the total imports decreased by 11.24% year - on - year [88]. - **Demand**: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased in November. The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate decreased this week [90][92]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand may increase slightly. The spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn 1. Market Review - Spot prices varied by region. Futures prices rose by 2.04% week - on - week [101][102]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress is faster than the same period last year. As of October 31, the inventory in northern ports increased by 14 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in southern ports increased by 13.5 million tons week - on - week [103][106]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices showed regional differentiation. The price difference between corn and wheat is 297 yuan/ton [108][109]. - **Import Substitute Grains**: In September 2025, China's grain imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Corn imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [111]. - **Feed Demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed output increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average inventory time of sample feed enterprises increased by 3.24% week - on - week [125][129]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The starch industry's operating rate increased. The total corn processing volume this week was 59.73 million tons, an increase of 2.33 million tons from last week [132]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 corn production is expected to increase by 0.4% year - on - year, and the consumption is expected to be basically the same as the previous year [136]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - The supply is sufficient, and substitute advantages are weakening. The demand is improving, but the inventory - building willingness is not strong. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices rose. Futures prices followed the CBOT soybeans and rose. The short - term attitude towards soybean meal should be cautious and slightly bullish [145][147]. 2. Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The new - season US soybean planting area decreased year - on - year. As of November 1, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47.1% [148][150]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of September 18, US soybean exports were lower than the same period last year. There is a risk that US soybean exports may fall short of expectations [157]. - **Domestic Soybean Imports and Crushing**: As of November 6, the soybean crushing profit was negative. The oil mill's operating rate may decline in the future [163]. - **Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory**: As of October 31, the domestic major oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 8.7% week - on - week. The terminal demand is relatively good [170]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of November 6, the 01 contract basis was about 49.43, and the 1 - 5 spread was 248 [175]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 6, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts was 42,102 hands, at a relatively high level in the same period of history [181]. Eggs 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot market improved. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the national in - production laying - hen inventory decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment continued to slow down [184]. - **Cost, Income and Breeding Profit**: As of November 6, egg prices increased slightly week - on - week but were significantly lower than the same period last year. The breeding profit was in a loss state and deteriorated compared with last week [191][193].

Group 1: Pork Market - The average daily trading volume of pork (including live pigs) in Hangzhou from October 27 to November 2 was 9,965 heads (761.73 tons), a decrease of 6.87% compared to the previous week [1] - The average price of live pigs in Hangzhou was 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.49%, while the average wholesale price of pork was 16.56 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.35% [1] - Retail prices for various pork cuts showed mixed trends, with pork loin at 32.59 yuan/kg (down 2.77%), pork hind leg at 28.76 yuan/kg (up 1.05%), and pork belly at 36.77 yuan/kg (down 1.13%) [1] Group 2: Vegetable Market - The average daily trading volume of vegetables in the wholesale market was 3,812.57 tons, a decrease of 11.16% from the previous week [2] - The average wholesale price for 17 vegetable varieties was 5.66 yuan/kg, an increase of 10.33%, with significant price increases for celery (up 31.3%) and cabbage (up 23.7%) [2] - The overall average retail price for 28 monitored vegetable varieties was 11.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.17%, with notable increases for eggplant (up 23.82%) and cabbage (up 11.22%) [2] Group 3: Aquatic Products Market - The total wholesale trading volume of aquatic products was 3,187.65 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 455.38 tons, down 1.77% [3] - The overall average price for eight aquatic product varieties remained stable at 40.38 yuan/kg, while the average retail price for 11 monitored aquatic products was 62.32 yuan/kg, down 1.02% [3] - Retail prices for certain aquatic products increased, with grass carp at 29.59 yuan/kg (up 4.3%) and soft-shelled turtle at 78.24 yuan/kg (up 2.84%) [3]

Core Insights - The price trends of major commodities in Jining, Shandong Province, for October show a mixed performance, with grain and oil prices declining slightly, meat and egg prices fluctuating, vegetable prices continuing to rise, and agricultural production material prices remaining stable with some changes. Group 1: Grain and Oil Prices - Grain and oil prices are stable with a slight decline; the average retail prices for wheat and corn are 1.18 yuan/kg and 1.08 yuan/kg, respectively, with corn down 4.42% month-on-month [1] - The average retail prices for japonica rice and premium flour are 2.55 yuan/kg and 1.87 yuan/kg, with japonica rice stable and premium flour up 0.54% [1] - The average retail prices for peanut oil and soybean oil are 159.34 yuan/5L and 60.76 yuan/5L, showing decreases of 0.08% and 0.18% respectively [1] Group 2: Meat and Egg Prices - Prices for pork continue to decline, with average retail prices for five-flower pork and lean pork at 11.36 yuan/kg and 12.92 yuan/kg, down 5.41% and 4.79% respectively [3] - Beef and lamb prices are slightly up, with average retail prices at 32.16 yuan/kg and 35.07 yuan/kg, increasing by 0.06% and decreasing by 1.21% respectively [3] - Chicken and egg prices show mixed trends, with chicken at 8.18 yuan/kg (up 1.24%) and eggs at 3.52 yuan/kg (down 5.38%) [3] Group 3: Vegetable Prices - Vegetable prices continue to rise, with a composite average price of 3.13 yuan/kg, up 4.55% month-on-month; notable increases include tomatoes and eggplants, which rose by 21.88% and 14.80% respectively [4][6] - The price increase is attributed to seasonal, climatic, and market factors, including a supply shortage during the transitional period between summer and autumn crops [6] - Adverse weather conditions, such as continuous rain, have impacted vegetable growth and transportation, further contributing to price increases [6] Group 4: Agricultural Production Materials - The prices of agricultural production materials show minor fluctuations; average retail prices for ammonium bicarbonate and urea are 1.17 yuan/kg and 1.86 yuan/kg, down 2.42% and 3.02% respectively [7] - The prices for diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizers are 4.20 yuan/kg and 3.13 yuan/kg, both showing slight changes [9] - Prices for agricultural films and pesticides remain stable, with average retail prices for greenhouse film and ground film at 13.25 yuan/kg and 12.33 yuan/kg, respectively [9]

Group 1: Pork and Poultry Market - The average daily trading volume of pork reached 10,700 heads (810.58 tons), an increase of 6.53% compared to the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of pork was 15.87 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.19% [1] - The retail price of pork products varied, with pork shoulder meat at 28.46 yuan/kg (up 3.23%) and pork belly at 37.19 yuan/kg (down 0.88%) [1] Group 2: Vegetable Market - The average daily trading volume of vegetables decreased by 1.6% to 3,868.28 tons [2] - The overall wholesale price of vegetables increased by 8.65% to an average of 5.15 yuan/kg, with significant price increases in cauliflower (up 31.31%) and loofah (up 26.9%) [2] - The retail price of monitored vegetables rose by 2.36% to an average of 11.27 yuan/kg, with notable increases in loofah (up 42.12%) and cucumber (up 14.24%) [2] Group 3: Aquatic Products Market - The total wholesale trading volume of aquatic products was 3,245.25 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 463.61 tons, reflecting a 0.74% increase [3] - The overall wholesale price of aquatic products remained stable at 40.38 yuan/kg [3] - The retail price of aquatic products showed mixed results, with an overall average of 62.96 yuan/kg, down 8.82%, while prices for certain fish like hairtail increased [3]

Group 1 - The overall price of 53 major consumer goods in Mengyin County increased by 2.76% compared to the previous week, with 7 items rising, 38 remaining stable, and 8 declining [1] - In the meat, poultry, and egg category, 4 out of 8 monitored items remained stable while 4 declined, with an average decrease of 2.25%. Specific price changes include a drop in pork and egg prices [1] Group 2 - In the vegetable category, 5 out of 17 monitored items increased in price, 9 remained stable, and 3 decreased, with an average increase of 10.02%. Notable price increases include cabbage and cucumber [2] - Specific vegetable prices showed significant increases, such as cabbage rising by 15.38% and cucumber by 100%, while some items like celery and cabbage saw declines of 16.67% and 10% respectively [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Grains - Argentina restarted export taxes, but China has purchased multiple shipments of Argentine soybeans. US soybeans currently lack substantial positive factors, with high yields and limited export performance due to the lack of Chinese demand, expected to remain in a low - range fluctuation. In China, the supply of soybean meal is abundant, soybean inventories are at a high level, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is also recovering. Under supply pressure, the basis is difficult to improve. The increase in Argentine soybean purchases alleviates the gap at the end of the year and in the first quarter of next year to some extent, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal may continue to weaken [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply rhythm is continuously recovering. Near the Double Festival, the demand for slaughtering large - weight pigs has increased, resulting in both supply and demand increasing. Spot quotes are chaotic, and the decline in some regions has widened. In the medium term, demand is slowly recovering, but the supply is clearly in a recovery pattern, and demand is insufficient to absorb the supply. The weight of retail pigs is still high. Pay attention to the weight adjustment of retail pigs after the National Day. The futures market is cautious about speculating on expectations, market confidence is weak, and long - position funds in the far - month contracts are withdrawing. The market is expected to remain volatile, fluctuating slightly following the spot market [4]. Oils - For palm oil, with the release of end - of - month fundamental data and concerns about inventory growth at the end of the year, crude palm oil futures are under pressure to fall below 4400 ringgit and then decline in a volatile manner. It is expected that after breaking through the annual line support of 4350 ringgit, the price may gradually seek support at 4200 ringgit. In China, due to concerns about the weakening of Malaysian palm oil, there is a risk that domestic palm oil futures may follow the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil, especially the risk of a compensatory decline after the National Day holiday. For soybean oil, the concentrated harvest of US soybeans and weak exports lead to a downward space for CBOT soybeans after fluctuations, dragging down the CBOT soybean oil price at the cost end. In China, after the pre - holiday stocking is completed, the market enters a holiday mode with light trading. During the holiday, factory production will accumulate inventory, and although downstream replenishment after the holiday may relieve the pressure, the high inventory may still drag down the spot basis price [6]. Corn - In the Northeast region, the supply of new - season corn is increasing, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year, with farmers having high enthusiasm for selling. The price has a stable local rebound, but there is still a downward expectation as the new - season harvest continues. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises are mainly consuming their own inventories, with no obvious highlights, but there is a seasonal replenishment demand. In the short term, as the market supply gradually increases, the futures price will remain weakly volatile at a low level. Pay attention to the new - grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [7]. Sugar - In the short term, the raw sugar price is mainly dragged down by the rapid production in Brazil and the demand before the expiration of the October contract. The high sugar production and inventory during the peak crushing season in Brazil have led to an oversupply in the recent trade flow. Pay attention to the pressure relief after the decline in cane crushing volume, the reduction in the sugar - making ratio, and the gradual shutdown of sugar mills from September to October. Overall, the positive factors for raw sugar are limited, and it is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern, with a reference range of 15 - 17 cents per pound. The new sugar - making season has started in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and new sugar is expected to be on the market this week, putting pressure on the spot market. The domestic market trading sentiment is cautious, and after the Double Festival stocking is completed, the overall trading atmosphere is relatively light. It is expected to maintain a weak trend [11]. Cotton - On the supply side, the willingness to rush to purchase seed cotton is weak, and new cotton can be hedged at a reasonable price. In the medium term, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure. On the demand side, the downstream textile industry has little confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than the same period in previous years, with limited support. Therefore, domestic cotton prices may be under pressure in the medium term [12]. Eggs - In recent days, the risk - aversion sentiment of traders has increased, and the procurement volume in the origin has decreased. The weakening demand may drag down egg prices. The sufficient supply of eggs will also have a negative impact on the market. After a slight decline in egg prices, traders may make small - batch replenishments, which may support egg prices. It is expected that egg prices will remain bottom - oscillating in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium term [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Grains - **Soybean Meal**: The current price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2601 is 2933 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.14% from the previous value; the basis of M2601 is 7 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 133.33% from the previous value. The import crushing profit of Argentine soybeans for the November shipment is 255 yuan/ton, unchanged, while that of Brazilian soybeans is - 14 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan or 255.6% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 39055, unchanged [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.40% from the previous value; the futures price of RM2601 is 2416 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.46% from the previous value; the basis of RM2601 is 84 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 20.00% from the previous value. The import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed for the November shipment is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged. The warehouse receipt is 9245, unchanged [2]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3880 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 1 contract is 3938 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.08% from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean - 1 contract is - 58 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or - 5.45% from the previous value. The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3600 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or - 0.25% from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean - 2 contract is 340 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 2.72% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 7290, down 288 or - 3.80% from the previous value [2]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 190 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 2.15% from the previous value; the rapeseed - meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 93 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 19.23% from the previous value; the oil - to - meal ratio of the spot is 2.86, down 0.024 or - 0.83% from the previous value; the oil - to - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.78, unchanged; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of the spot is 440 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 2.33% from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2601 is 517 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or - 2.82% from the previous value [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract is 255 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan or 1120.00% from the previous value; the price of live - hog 2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan or - 2.23% from the previous value; the price of live - hog 2601 is 12785 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan or - 2.40% from the previous value; the 11 - 1 spread is - 490 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 6.67% from the previous value; the position of the main contract is 75453, down 9566 or - 11.25% from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 0, down 298 from the previous value [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 12550 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 12850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Sichuan, it is 12050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Liaoning, it is 12400 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 12960 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Hunan, it is 12110 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Hebei, it is 12600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [4]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 169930, up 4751 or 2.88% from the previous value; the weekly white - strip pig price is 0 yuan/kg, down 19.8 yuan or - 100.00% from the previous value; the weekly piglet price is 26 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.55 kg, up 0.1 kg or 0.08% from the previous value; the weekly self - breeding profit is - 74 yuan/head, down 49.7 yuan or - 203.23% from the previous value; the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 237 yuan/head, down 37.3 yuan or - 18.69% from the previous value; the monthly inventory of reproductive sows is 40380000 heads, down 40000 or - 0.10% from the previous value [4]. Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The current price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8400 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or - 0.83% from the previous value; the futures price of Y2601 is 8150 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.15% from the previous value; the basis of Y2601 is 250 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or - 18.83% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 25534, unchanged [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9110 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or - 1.30% from the previous value; the futures price of P2601 is 9234 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.02% from the previous value; the basis of P2601 is - 124 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan or - 1966.67% from the previous value. The import cost of palm oil at Guangzhou Port in January is 9657.8 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan or 0.03% from the previous value; the import profit is - 424 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 1.08% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 410, unchanged [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 10200 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.39% from the previous value; the futures price of OI601 is 10093 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or - 0.68% from the previous value; the basis of OI601 is 107 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 37.18% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 8057, unchanged [6]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 238 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.85% from the previous value; the palm - oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 174 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 5.43% from the previous value; the rapeseed - oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 503 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or - 3.27% from the previous value; the spot soybean - palm oil spread is - 710 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 6.58% from the previous value; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread is - 1148 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or - 1.95% from the previous value; the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1800 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.69% from the previous value; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1943 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan or - 2.85% from the previous value [6]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 is 2159 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or - 0.87% from the previous value; the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port is 2280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 121 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 18.63% from the previous value; the 11 - 3 spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or - 62.96% from the previous value; the bulk - grain price at Shekou is 2440 yuan/ton, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 84 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price is 1947 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.03% from the previous value; the import profit is 493 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.13% from the previous value; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 627, down 99 or - 13.64% from the previous value; the position is 1600487, down 36762 or - 2.25% from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 21549, down 265 or - 1.21% from the previous value [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 is 2483 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.12% from the previous value; the spot price in Changchun is 2560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 17 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or - 3.75% from the previous value; the 11 - 3 spread is 21 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 31.25% from the previous value; the starch - corn futures spread is 324 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 7.28% from the previous value; the starch profit in Shandong is - 32 yuan/ton, unchanged; the position is 274397, up 1926 or 0.71% from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 8189, unchanged [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02% from the previous value; the price of sugar 2605 is 5437 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.09% from the previous value; the price of ICE raw - sugar main contract is 16.40 cents per pound, up 0.05 cents or 0.31% from the previous value; the 1 - 5 spread is 42 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 16.67% from the previous value; the position of the main contract is 417045, down 10429 or - 2.44% from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 8981, down 483 or - 5.10% from the previous value; the effective forecast is 0, unchanged [11]. -

Group 1: Overall Price Trends - The overall price of 54 major consumer goods in Mengyin County increased by 0.71% compared to the previous week, with 6 items rising, 44 remaining stable, and 4 declining [1][2] Group 2: Meat, Poultry, and Eggs - Among the 8 monitored meat, poultry, and egg products, prices saw 3 increases, 3 stable, and 2 decreases, with an average increase of 2.04%. Notably, beef and lamb prices rose by 10% to 33 yuan per jin, while egg prices increased by 2.63% to 3.9 yuan per jin [1] - Prices for pork products showed mixed results, with lean pork decreasing by 3.45% to 14 yuan per jin and ribs down by 2.86% to 17 yuan per jin, while other products remained stable [1] Group 3: Vegetables - In the vegetable category, 17 monitored products experienced 2 price increases, 14 stable prices, and 1 decrease, with an average increase of 1.67%. Leek prices rose by 25% to 2.5 yuan per jin, and green onion prices increased by 11.11% to 2 yuan per jin [2] - Most vegetable prices remained stable, with only kidney bean prices declining by 7.69% to 6 yuan per jin [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is affected by various factors, with most varieties showing a downward trend. The cancellation of Argentina's agricultural product export tax has a significant negative impact on two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oil products, increasing global supply pressure and driving prices down. Other products are also under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and harvest expectations [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Affected by Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export tax, two - meal and oil products tumbled, and the market will be weak. Hog prices continued to fall due to oversupply [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - Affected by Argentina's tax - exemption policy, the U.S. soybean futures price dropped significantly. Domestic soybean meal output increased, inventory reached a new high, and the futures price hit a more than 4 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 2907, and the resistance is 2950 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - Argentina's tax - exemption policy led to intensified international market competition, triggering large - scale selling and pushing down the futures price. Domestically, supply is abundant, inventory pressure is high, and the futures price hit a nearly 2 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8000, and the resistance is 8100 [4]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - Affected by Argentina's policy, the Chicago and Dalian bean markets' selling spread to the palm oil market. Domestically, supply and demand are both weak, and the spot price dropped by 400 yuan/ton. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8946, and the resistance is 9132 [6]. 3.2.4 Corn - The new corn harvest expectation is being realized, the spot price is weak, and the futures market is in the process of contract roll - over. The 2511 contract rebounded from a low level, while the 2601 contract continued to fall. Technically, it is weak, and a short order should be held. The support for the 2511 contract is 2138, and the resistance is 2162 [8]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and there is still a large amount of cold - storage eggs to be released. After the festival stocking, the consumption support is insufficient, and the egg price is under great pressure to fall. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2511 contract is 3046, and the resistance is 3086 [10]. 3.2.6 Hogs - The supply pressure is high due to increased concentrated slaughter. Consumption demand has a limited increase, and the futures price hit a new low. Technically, it is weak, and short selling is recommended. The support for the 2511 contract is 12600, and the resistance is 12800 [13]. 3.2.7 Cotton - New cotton is expected to have a good harvest, while downstream demand is less than expected. The futures price hit a 3 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 13500, and the resistance is 13605 [14][16]. 3.2.8 Apples - Affected by rainfall, the bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji apples is postponed. There is a short - term supply gap, and the price is supported. The market has some short - long liquidation, and the price fluctuates narrowly. Technically, it is strong, and a light - position long order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8253, and the resistance is 8350 [17][19]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Xinjiang gray dates are entering the sugar - increasing stage, and there is an expected reduction in production. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. The futures price continued to rebound. Technically, short orders should be closed, and a light - position long order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 10700, and the resistance is 10870 [20]. 3.2.10 White Sugar - The good harvest prospects in major sugar - producing countries overseas have pressured the external market, driving down Zhengzhou sugar. Domestically, supply has increased, and demand has entered the off - season, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 5424, and the resistance is 5472 [22].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Pig Industry**: The decline in pig prices has slowed down due to the support of the state's purchase and storage policies and the pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals. However, the supply in September is increasing, and the high weight of pigs restricts the rebound of prices. In the medium - and long - term, the supply before May next year is expected to increase, and the price outlook is not optimistic, except for a possible relative strengthening in the second half of next year [4][54]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern in the futures market. In the short term, the support for egg prices is expected to weaken, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the culling of laying hens and environmental protection policies [5][84]. - **Corn Industry**: During the new corn listing period, the futures price faces pressure to rebound. In the short term, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure due to the concentrated listing. In the long - term, the cost support has decreased, and the price fluctuation center may move down, but attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [6][106]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the national spot price was 12.63 yuan/kg, down 0.63 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.93 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan/kg. The futures price of pig 2511 was 12,825 yuan/ton, down 430 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - contract basis was 105 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from last week [4][54]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Average weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.13 kg to 128.45 kg; the fat - to - standard price difference remained unchanged at 0.39 yuan. The daily average slaughter rate increased by 0.34% to 31.83%, and the daily average slaughter volume increased by 1,438 heads to 131,717 heads. The frozen product inventory rate increased by 0.26% to 17.91%. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 9.67 yuan/head, down 30.79 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 222.56 yuan/head, down 27.75 yuan/head [16]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased slowly from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance has improved, and the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [19]. 3.2 Egg Industry 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.66 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.59 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main egg 2511 contract was 3,112 yuan/500 kg, up 72 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 308 yuan/500 kg, up 78 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][84]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - The national weekly utilization rate of hatching eggs for laying hens was 64%, unchanged from last week. The number of culled laying hens was 17.61 million, an increase of 130,000 from last week. The production and circulation inventories increased by 0.03 and 0.07 days respectively to 0.94 and 1.06 days [60]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - opened laying hens in September corresponded to the relatively high replenishment in May 2025. The culling of laying hens was normal, and the overall egg supply was sufficient. In the long - term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate is expected to slow down [84]. 3.3 Corn Industry 3.3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main corn 2511 contract was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 132 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][106]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - The corn arrival volume at the four northern ports decreased by 216,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The inventory at the northern and southern ports decreased by 530,000 tons and 55,000 tons respectively to 870,000 tons and 601,000 tons. The opening rate of deep - processing enterprises increased by 1.01% to 48.15% [91]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The old - crop corn in the market is in limited supply, and new - crop corn has started to be listed in some areas in the Northeast. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. In the long - term, the corn planting in the 25/26 season is stable, and the cost support has decreased [106].