| | | 【市场逻辑】 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 短期来看，南方猪价大幅下跌、南北价差开始倒挂，本周后期雨雪天气扰动增强， | | | | 关注腊月中旬下游备货情绪。 | | | | 中期来看，全国新生仔猪数量对应今年3月之前生猪供给增量预期仍存，或限制猪价 | | | | 向上空间；10、11月新生仔猪连续2个月环比下降，对应今年4月起供给压力有所缓 | | | | 解；重点关注疫病影响。 | | | | 长期来看，母猪存栏对应今年8月前供给压力仍存；然而2025年年末能繁母猪存栏降 | | | | 幅不及预期，远月合约预期下移。 | | | | 【交易策略】 | | | | 2603合约支撑继续关注11000-11200，压力关注11500；2605合约支撑继续关注1150 | | | | 0-11600，压力关注11900；2607合约支撑继续关注12200-12300，压力关注12500；2 | | | | 609合约支撑关注13100-13200，压力关注13400-13500。 | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | 昨日鸡蛋期货涨跌互现，主力 2603 合约 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of the agricultural market, specifically focusing on the CBOT soybean prices approaching the $10 mark, raising questions about the potential downward space for prices [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - CBOT soybean prices are nearing the significant threshold of $10, indicating a critical point for market participants [1] - The analysis suggests that there may be further downward potential in soybean prices, prompting a need for close monitoring [1]