2025 年 08 月 27 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：美豆偏强、连粕偏弱，谨防超跌反弹 豆一：豆类市场氛围影响，短线偏弱 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3974 -24（-0.60%） | 3961 -27（-0.68%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | -29 （-0.93%） 3081 | -50（-1.61%） 3047 | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1049 +1.25（+0.12%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 293.1 +2.5（+0.86%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3080～3100， 较昨-30至持平； 昨持平或-10； 9月M2601-40/+30/+60， M2601+30/+70， 持平； 年1- ...

2025 年 08 月 21 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆微涨、菜粕偏弱，连粕或震荡 豆一：偏弱震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 4036 | -10（-0.25%） | 4024 | +2 （+0.05%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3160 -1 | （-0.03%） | 3145 | -1 （-0.03%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1035.5 | +2.25（+0.22%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 297 | +1.3（+0.44%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 较昨持平至+30； 3080～3100， | | 8月24日前提货M2509-60， | 较昨-10； 现 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Overnight, US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal futures may rebound; Dalian soybean futures are expected to rebound and fluctuate [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal and soybean is +1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend for the main - contract futures prices on the day - trading session of the report date [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybean 2511 closed at 4056 yuan/ton during the day session, down 15 yuan (-0.37%), and up 24 yuan (+0.59%) to 4068 yuan/ton during the night session. - DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3137 yuan/ton during the day session, down 27 yuan (-0.85%), and up 5 yuan (+0.16%) to 3142 yuan/ton during the night session. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1042.75 cents/bushel, up 14.25 cents (+1.39%). - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 294.3 dollars/short - ton, down 0.7 dollars (-0.24%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the price range of soybean meal (43%) is 3060 - 3100 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different delivery months remaining flat. - In East China, the price of soybean meal is 2990 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with basis prices for different delivery months remaining flat. - In South China, the price range of soybean meal is 3040 - 3070 yuan/ton, with the price down 60 yuan to flat compared to the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 2.4 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 7.15 million tons per day two trading days ago. - The inventory of soybean meal was 96.09 million tons per week, and the data for the previous trading day was not available [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - On August 15, CBOT soybean futures closed moderately higher, supported by active short - covering before the weekend. The price rose 5.6% this week, the first weekly increase in four weeks and the largest single - week increase since early April, mainly due to the USDA's soybean yield forecast being lower than market expectations. - The NOPA reported that the US soybean crushing volume in July reached a record 195.7 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 7.01%, higher than market expectations and the highest level since January, which provided additional support for soybean futures. - However, due to the trade tension between the US and China, the largest buyer, the new - crop export demand was weak, limiting the price increase [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures showed a relatively strong and volatile trend; the soybean No.1 futures showed a rebound and oscillation trend [1]. - On August 4, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to short - covering, but the abundant global supply, including the Brazilian soybean harvest and strong US soybean production prospects, continued to suppress the upward momentum of soybean prices. Concerns about Sino - US trade tensions also limited market sentiment. The US soybean crop was still in good condition in early August, and the short - term weather in the US Midwest was expected to be mild and dry, with more mild and rainy weather possible in the next 6 - 15 days. As of August 3, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, down 1 percentage point from a week ago, in line with market expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Futures Prices - DCE soybean No.1 2509 closed at 4117 yuan/ton during the day session, down 9 yuan (-0.22%), and 4133 yuan/ton during the night session, up 7 yuan (+0.17%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3024 yuan/ton during the day session, up 20 yuan (+0.67%), and 3045 yuan/ton during the night session, up 24 yuan (+0.79%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 994.5 cents per bushel, up 6.5 cents (+0.66%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 285.1 dollars per short - ton, up 4.7 dollars (+1.68%) [1]. 2. Spot Prices - In Shandong, the soybean meal price was 2940 - 2960 yuan/ton, with various basis adjustments compared to the futures contract M2509 and M2601, and price changes were mostly flat or up by 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - In East China, the price was 2920 - 2980 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan compared to the previous day, with different basis levels for different contract months [1]. - In South China, the price was 2940 - 2970 yuan/ton, up 20 - 30 yuan compared to the previous day, and also had different basis adjustments for different contract months [1]. 3. Industrial Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 16.7 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 15.5 million tons two trading days ago [1]. - The inventory data for the previous week was not available, and the inventory two weeks ago was 96.1 million tons [1]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal was +1, and that of soybean No.1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day session of the reporting day [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, soybean meal prices first rose and then fell. On the cost side, recent rainfall in US soybean - producing areas has been good, but some areas have faced high - temperature threats. As of July 22, about 8% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, slightly higher than the previous week and last year. As of July 17, the soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 68%, lower than expected, which supported US soybeans. Last week, the net export sales of US soybeans were 400,000 tons, in line with expectations but down from the previous week. With the approaching of August 1, the slow progress of tariff negotiations between the US and other countries has increased market concerns about US soybean demand. Amidst the mix of positive and negative factors, US soybeans have been oscillating downward. In the domestic market, recent soybean arrivals have been sufficient, the oil - mill operating rate has returned to normal, and the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Meanwhile, recent downstream restocking has weakened, but the spot price of soybean meal has remained stable due to the influence of the futures market. Additionally, oil mills' soybean and soybean - meal inventories are in an accumulation cycle, with short - term soybean inventories slightly decreasing and soybean - meal inventories continuously increasing. The strategy is that US soybeans are oscillating downward due to the mix of positive and negative factors; in the domestic market, soybean supply is sufficient in the third quarter, the oil - mill operating rate has reached a high level compared to the same period, the overall spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, and current downstream restocking has weakened, so the spot price will remain oscillating. In the short term, as Sino - US economic and trade consultations are approaching, attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US tariffs; in the long term, US soybeans have entered the weather - sensitive period. Favorable weather in the early - stage production areas has limited speculation, and the temperature in US soybean - producing areas will be high first and then low in the next two weeks, so attention should be paid to potential weather - related speculation [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of the close on July 25, the CBOT soybean closed at 1021.75 cents per bushel, down 13.25 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 1.28%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 3021 yuan per ton, down 35 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 1.15% [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - **Weather**: In the next two weeks, there will be sufficient rainfall and low temperatures in US soybean - producing areas [12] - **US soybean growth**: As of the week of July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. The US soybean flowering rate was 62%, up from 47% in the previous week, compared with 63% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 63%. The US soybean pod - setting rate was 26%, up from 15% in the previous week, compared with 27% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 26%. As of the week of July 22, about 8% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 7% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year [12][21] - **US soybean exports**: As of the week of July 17, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season were 161,000 tons, compared with 272,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 239,000 tons, compared with 530,000 tons in the previous week [12][25] - **Brazilian soybeans**: The estimated Brazilian soybean exports in July are 12.11 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons year - on - year. Recently, the Brazilian real has been stable, US soybeans have been oscillating, and the near - month soybean premium has stopped rising and adjusted [12][31] Supply - **Imports**: In the 29th week (July 12 - July 18), the total arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills was 31.5 ships, about 2.0475 million tons of soybeans [12][35] Demand - **Pressing**: In the 30th week (July 19 - July 25), the actual soybean pressing volume of oil mills was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%, 380 tons higher than the estimate [12][35] - **Transactions**: In the 30th week, soybean - meal transactions increased to 692,600 tons, an increase of 4.51%; pick - up increased to 942,100 tons, an increase of 1.72% [12][39] Inventory - **Oil - mill inventory**: In the 29th week, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, the soybean - meal inventory increased, and the unfulfilled contracts decreased. Among them, the soybean inventory was 6.4224 million tons, a decrease of 152,500 tons from the previous week; the soybean - meal inventory was 998,400 tons, an increase of 112,200 tons from the previous week [12][44] 3. Spread Tracking - No specific spread - tracking analysis content was provided except for listing items such as soybean - meal basis in Jiangsu, oil - to - meal ratio, soybean - meal 9 - 1 spread, and soybean - meal to rapeseed - meal spread [47][51][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and Dalian soybean meal futures adjusted and fluctuated. Dalian soybeans also adjusted and fluctuated [1]. - On July 25, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to trade uncertainties and concerns about export demand. The export sales data on Thursday was at the lower end of market estimates, and favorable weather in the US Midwest boosted soybean production prospects, putting pressure on soybean prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4224 yuan/ton during the day session, up 18 yuan (+0.43%), and at 4208 yuan/ton during the night session, down 15 yuan (-0.36%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3021 yuan/ton during the day session, down 20 yuan (-0.66%), and at 3007 yuan/ton during the night session, down 18 yuan (-0.60%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1021.75 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents (-0.32%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 281.7 dollars/short ton, down 1.5 dollars (-0.53%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal was 2900 - 2920 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan to unchanged compared to the previous day; in East China, it was 2830 - 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or unchanged; in South China, it was 2880 - 2940 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan to unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.15 million tons/day, compared with 20.15 million tons/day in the previous two trading days; the inventory was not available, compared with 90.83 million tons/week in the previous two trading days [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 25, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. Traders were trying to build positions before the August 1 tariff deadline set by the Trump administration, but were reluctant to significantly adjust their trading patterns due to ongoing Sino - US negotiations. The EU and the US may reach a trade framework agreement this weekend. Private exporters reported selling 142,500 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the report day [3].

Group 1 - Hedge funds reduced their net short position in CBOT soybeans during the week of July 22 [1] - The net short position in CBOT corn has expanded [1] - The net short position in CBOT wheat reached an eight-month low [1] Group 2 - The net long position in CBOT soybean oil reached a two-month high [1] - The net long position in orange juice reached a 19-week high [1] - The net long position in lean hogs reached a seven-week low [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "Soybean Meal: Market sentiment is strong, and the market fluctuates strongly; Soybean No.1: Technically fluctuates strongly" [1] - Analyst: Wu Guangjing [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of soybean meal is strong, and the market fluctuates strongly; the technical aspect of soybean No.1 fluctuates strongly [1] - The core factors affecting soybean prices in the near term are Sino-US trade dynamics and weather conditions [3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE Soybean No.1 2509: The daytime closing price was 4,232 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan (+1.34%); the night session closing price was 4,241 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan (+0.66%) [1] - DCE Soybean Meal 2509: The daytime closing price was 3,086 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan (+0.88%); the night session closing price was 3,092 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (+0.52%) [1] - CBOT Soybean 11: The price was 1,026 cents/bushel, down 0.75 cents (-0.07%) [1] - CBOT Soybean Meal 12: The price was 286.9 dollars/short ton, up 2 dollars (+0.70%) [1] Spot - Shandong: The price of soybean meal (43%) was 2,930 - 2,950 yuan/ton, M2509 + 0/+30, basically flat to up 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - East China: The price of soybean meal in Taizhou Huifu was 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - South China: The price of soybean meal was 2,930 - 2,970 yuan/ton, M2601 + 90, down 20 yuan to up 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Main Industry Data - Trading volume: The trading volume of soybean meal was 12.15 million tons/day, compared with 14.95 million tons/day two days ago [1] - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal was 90.83 million tons/week, compared with 84.29 million tons/week two days ago [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 22, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The good weather in the US Midwest boosted the crop yield outlook, putting pressure on prices [3] - Sino-US trade negotiations are about to resume, which improves market sentiment and provides support [3] - The US Treasury Secretary announced that he will meet with the Chinese Finance Minister in Stockholm next week to discuss the possibility of reaching a trade agreement before August 12 to avoid the implementation of high tariffs [3] - The market is also waiting to see if the US will implement the tariff deadline for global trading partners on August 1 [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1; the trend intensity of soybean No.1 is +1 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the daytime session on the report day) [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 21, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to favorable rainfall in the US Midwest this week alleviating the pressure from previous high - temperatures, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also pressured the market. The soybean crop's growth pressure is expected to be reduced by the rainfall despite a brief high - temperature period in the mid - week in the US Midwest. The 8 - month 1 - day tariff deadline may intensify negative market sentiment as few countries have reached agreements with the US. As of July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the previous week and market expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE Bean 1 2509 closed at 4199 yuan/ton (+1, +0.02%) during the day session and 4188 yuan/ton (+12, +0.29%) during the night session. DCE Bean Meal 2509 closed at 3069 yuan/ton (+26, +0.85%) during the day session and 3061 yuan/ton (+2, +0.07%) during the night session. CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1026.75 cents/bushel (-8.25, -0.80%), and CBOT Bean Meal 12 closed at 284.9 dollars/short ton (-3.9, -1.35%) [1]. Spot - In Shandong, the spot price of bean meal (43%) was 2920 - 2950 yuan/ton, flat; different basis prices were given for different months. In East China, the price was 2900 - 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 or 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with corresponding basis prices for different months. In South China, the price was 2920 - 2990 yuan/ton, -10 to +10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and Hainan Aosika had specific spot basis prices [1]. Main Industry Data - The trading volume of bean meal was 14.95 million tons per day, and the previous trading volume was 14.31 million tons per day. The inventory data was not available, and the previous inventory was 84.29 million tons per week [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 21, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The main reasons were the expected favorable rainfall in the US Midwest this week to relieve the high - temperature pressure and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of July 20 was 68%, lower than the previous week and market expectations [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of bean meal and bean 1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contract during the day session on the report day [3].