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今日开盘!一图了解国庆中秋假期全球市场涨跌情况
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 00:31
来源:市场资讯 (来源:一德期货) | 标的品种 | 9月30日 | 10月9日 | 假期涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 15:00报价 | 07:00报价 | | | 马棕油 | 4369 | 4546 | 4.05% | | COMEX黄金 | 3883.9 | 4039.9 | 4.02% | | COMEX铜 | 4.8810 | 5.0670 | 3.81% | | 德DAX 30 | 23775.12 | 24597.13 | 3.46% | | CBOT豆油 | 49.67 | 51.34 | 3.36% | | LmeS铝 | 2664.5 | 2750.5 | 3.23% | | LmeS锡 | 35125 | 36250 | 3.20% | | LmeS铜 | 10375.0 | 10701.0 | 3.14% | | COMEX白银 | 46.965 | 48.250 | 2.74% | | 美天然气 | 3.253 | 3.341 | 2.71% | | LmeS锌 | 2917.5 | 2995.0 | 2.66% | | CBOT大豆 | 1 ...
深度丨国庆假期,海外发生了什么?【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-10-07 09:01
海外发生了什么? 美欧货币政策方面,关于美联储降息仍有分歧。 假期期间,多位美联储官员表示对继续降息应保持谨慎。美联储理事米兰继续淡化关税推高通 胀的风险。欧洲方面,欧央行行长表示关税对通胀影响低于预期。 核 心 观 点 全球资产有何表现? 从假期当周的资产表现来看, 股市方面 ,全球股指多数上涨,MSCI全球指数较周二上涨0.8%,中国台湾加权指数与韩国综指上行3.6%,涨幅 居前,美国三大股指均有小幅上涨,美股中医疗保健、公共事业与信息技术板块领涨,港股原材料行业领涨; 债市方面 ,美债利率下行,海外多数国家国债收益 率下行; 汇市方面 ,美元指数下行,人民币略有走弱,离岸人民币汇率小幅贬值,而港元略有升值;日元、英镑和欧 元均有不同程度的走强; 大宗方面 ,除原油 外,全球大宗商品普遍上涨,有色金属LME锡领涨,贵金属均有上涨,农产品CBOT玉米、小麦和大豆也均有不同程度的上涨。 美国经济方面,多项就业指标降温,非制造业景气度转弱。 美国9月ADP新增就业人数转负。分行业来看,休闲酒店和金融业的新增就业减少最多。8月美国职位空 缺数升至723万人,劳动力需求缺口较7月有所扩大。ISM非制造业PMI回落至 ...
豆粕:隔夜美豆微涨,连粕或略有反弹,豆一,反弹震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:12
2025 年 09 月 29 日 豆粕:隔夜美豆微涨,连粕或略有反弹 豆一:反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 (日盘) 涨 跌 | 收盘价 (夜盘) | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 (元/吨) | 3935 | +5(+0.13%) -2 3938 | (-0.05%) | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 (元/吨) | 2937 | -24(-0.81%) 2936 | -13(-0.44%) | | | CBOT大豆11 (美分/蒲) | 1014 | +1.75(+0.17%) | | | | (美元/短吨) CBOT豆粕12 | 274.9 | n a +1.7(+0.62%) | | | | | | 豆粕 (43%) | | | | | 2960~3000, 较昨+10或持平; M2601+0/+20/+50, | 现货基差M2601+30, 较昨-10; 持平; 11月M2601+30, 持平; 1 ...
冠通期货:近十年国庆假期外盘涨跌幅统计
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 10:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the average and median price changes of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays over the past ten years and the past five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, LME aluminum, LME tin, LME lead, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT wheat, CBOT rice, ICE 11 - sugar, ICE 2 - cotton, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, CRB Commodity Index, and BDI [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 NYMEX Crude Oil - Over the past ten years, the average price change during the National Day holiday was 3.18%, with a median of 3.33%. In the past five years, the average was 5.75%, and the median was 4.97% [1] 3.2 NYMEX Natural Gas - The ten - year average price change was 0.97%, and the median was - 1.57%. In the past five years, the average was 0.73%, and the median was - 3.19% [1] 3.3 COMEX Gold - The ten - year average price change was 0.08%, and the median was 0.30%. In the past five years, the average was 0.14%, and the median was 0.21% [1] 3.4 COMEX Silver - The ten - year average price change was 1.33%, and the median was 1.82%. In the past five years, the average was 1.54%, and the median was 2.01% [1] 3.5 LME Copper - The ten - year average price change was 0.26%, and the median was - 0.16%. In the past five years, the average was 0.44%, and the median was - 0.25% [1] 3.6 LME Zinc - The ten - year average price change was - 0.21%, and the median was 0.09%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.21%, and the median was - 0.29% [1] 3.7 LME Nickel - The ten - year average price change was 0.88%, and the median was 1.06%. In the past five years, the average was 1.67%, and the median was 2.20% [1] 3.8 LME Aluminum - The ten - year average price change was 1.87%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.38%, and the median was 2.04% [1] 3.9 LME Tin - The ten - year average price change was 0.98%, and the median was 1.07%. In the past five years, the average was 0.58%, and the median was 1.47% [1] 3.10 LME Lead - The ten - year average price change was 0.92%, and the median was 1.02%. In the past five years, the average was 1.84%, and the median was 2.11% [1] 3.11 CBOT Soybeans - The ten - year average price change was 0.21%, and the median was 0.20%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.61%, and the median was - 0.82% [1] 3.12 CBOT Corn - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.73%. In the past five years, the average was 0.75%, and the median was 0.72% [1] 3.13 CBOT Soybean Oil - The ten - year average price change was 2.32%, and the median was 2.29%. In the past five years, the average was 2.74%, and the median was 2.96% [1] 3.14 CBOT Soybean Meal - The ten - year average price change was - 0.40%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was - 1.73%, and the median was - 2.92% [1] 3.15 CBOT Wheat - The ten - year average price change was 0.09%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was 0.34%, and the median was 1.71% [1] 3.16 CBOT Rice - The ten - year average price change was 1.03%, and the median was 0.34%. In the past five years, the average was 0.02%, and the median was - 0.53% [1] 3.17 ICE 11 - Sugar - The ten - year average price change was 3.04%, and the median was 1.12%. In the past five years, the average was 1.58%, and the median was - 0.31% [1] 3.18 ICE 2 - Cotton - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.14%. In the past five years, the average was 0.96%, and the median was 0.05% [1] 3.19 S&P 500 - The ten - year average price change was 0.74%, and the median was 0.70%. In the past five years, the average was 1.04%, and the median was 1.51% [1] 3.20 US Dollar Index - The ten - year average price change was 0.32%, and the median was 0.23%. In the past five years, the average was 0.38%, and the median was - 0.03% [1] 3.21 CRB Commodity Index - The ten - year average price change was 1.46%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.03%, and the median was 2.37% [1][3] 3.22 BDI - The ten - year average price change was 3.82%, and the median was 4.44%. In the past five years, the average was 7.82%, and the median was 11.61% [1][3]
近十年国庆假期外盘涨跌幅统计
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 08:05
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The report presents the price change statistics of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays in the past ten and five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, etc., to show their historical performance during the holidays [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog a. Ten - year Average and Median Statistics - The ten - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are as follows: NYMEX crude oil 3.18%, NYMEX natural gas 0.97%, COMEX gold 0.08%, etc. The ten - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 3.33%, NYMEX natural gas - 1.57%, COMEX gold 0.30%, etc [1][4]. b. Five - year Average and Median Statistics - The five - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are: NYMEX crude oil 5.75%, NYMEX natural gas 0.73%, COMEX gold 0.14%, etc. The five - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 4.97%, NYMEX natural gas - 3.19%, COMEX gold 0.21%, etc [2][4]. c. Annual Price Changes from 2015 - 2024 - The report details the price changes of each commodity and index during the National Day holidays from 2015 to 2024. For example, NYMEX crude oil had a 6.15% change in 2015, 3.12% in 2016, and - 4.63% in 2017 [4].
豆粕:美豆收涨,连粕或超跌反弹,豆一:豆类市场情绪修复,反弹震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market sentiment has recovered, showing a rebound and oscillation. The CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to technical overselling, despite facing factors such as insufficient Chinese demand and increased competition from Argentina [1][3]. - The soybean meal and soybean markets have different price trends. The DCE soybean meal futures and spot prices have declined, while the CBOT soybean futures have a slight increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,878 yuan/ton during the day session, down 33 yuan (-0.84%), and 3,886 yuan/ton during the night session, up 10 yuan (+0.26%). The DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,928 yuan/ton during the day session, down 102 yuan (-3.37%), and 2,917 yuan/ton during the night session, down 37 yuan (-1.25%). The CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1,012.5 cents/bushel, up 1.25 cents (+0.12%), and the CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at $277/short ton, down $3.2 (-1.14%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal spot price is 2,980 yuan/ton (Yantai Yihai), with the basis M2601 + 0, up 30 yuan compared to the previous day. In East China, the price is 2,960 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with the basis M2601 - 20, remaining flat compared to the previous day. In South China, the price ranges from 2,950 to 2,980 yuan/ton, with the basis M2601 + 0, down 70 to 40 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 24.96 million tons per day, and the inventory was 117.04 million tons per week, showing an increase compared to the previous two trading days [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 23, the CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to technical overselling. The market was affected by insufficient Chinese demand and increased competition from Argentina, but it rebounded technically at the end of the session [1][3]. - Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tariffs on soybeans, grains, and their products, as well as beef and poultry on Monday to boost overseas sales and obtain dollars to support the peso. Chinese buyers then ordered at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans, which is a blow to US farmers [3]. - Crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered the US soybean yield forecast by 0.5 bushels to 52 bushels per acre and estimated the soybean production to be 4.17 billion bushels [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral state for the main - contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [3].
豆粕:美豆优良率低于预期,或有反弹,豆一:豆类市场情绪影响,低位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 03:26
吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 2025 年 09 月 23 日 | | 收盘价(日盘) 涨跌 | | 收盘价(夜盘) | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | +6 (+0. 15%) DCE豆一2511(元/吨) 3912 | | 3884 | -27 (-0.69%) | | 期货 | DCE豆粕2601 (元/吨) 3034 +30 (+1.00%) | | 2983 | -47 (-1.55%) | | | CBOT大豆11(美分/蒲) 1011.25 -14.75 (-1. 44%) | | | | | | na -4.0 (-1.41%) CBOT豆粕12(美元/短吨) 280. 2 豆粕(43%) | | | | | | 3010~3040,较昨+20至+40:现货基差M2601+0/-30,较昨持平或-10:10-1月 M2601+50/+80,持平:11-1月M2601+40/+70:12-1月M2601+50:2026年2-4月 山东(元/吨)。 | ...
首席点评:坚持支持性货币政策
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market risk appetite has increased due to the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the US stock market has reached a record high [1]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are rich in technology - growth components, are more aggressive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are rich in dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive [4][11]. - With the Fed entering the interest rate cut cycle, the policy space for the domestic central bank has expanded, but the short - term capital market has tightened, and the bond futures prices have fluctuated at a low level [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Key Varieties - **Fats and Oils**: The night - session of fats and oils was weak. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in early September, and Argentina's cancellation of export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal dragged down the short - term performance of the fats and oils sector [2][29]. - **Gold**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver initially declined and then strengthened again, reaching a new high this week. The long - term driving force for gold remains clear, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Fed has continued the bullish sentiment [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose. The previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The 9 - month trend was more volatile, in the high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry will visit the US to reach a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement, indicating a relaxation of tensions between the two countries [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" package of policies, the "stability" foundation of China's capital market has been continuously consolidated, and the "vibrant" ecosystem has been accelerating. The number of new A - share accounts in August increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The State Council's Food Safety Office is promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes and the explicit use of pre - made dishes in the catering industry [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.15%, ICE 11 - sugar fell 2.04%, and other varieties showed different degrees of change [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term is in a high - level consolidation stage, and the long - term is in the strategic allocation period [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bond prices rose slightly. The central bank carried out a 14 - day reverse repurchase operation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Night - session oil prices continued to fall. Iraq plans to resume oil exports, and the market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The overall inventory of coastal methanol is rising, and it is expected to be short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices stopped falling and stabilized. Supply is expected to increase, and there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices fell. The market is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures prices fell. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and attention is paid to the consumption in autumn [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices reached a new high. The long - term driving force for gold is clear, and the bullish sentiment continues [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. The market is affected by multiple factors and may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell slightly at night. The supply may be in surplus in the short term, and prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased, inventory decreased, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts fluctuated in a narrow range, showing a high - level oscillating trend [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and iron ore demand is supported. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [26]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fell significantly at night. The US soybean harvest pressure will gradually emerge, and bean meal is expected to be under pressure [28]. - **Fats and Oils**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term performance is weak [29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are in a stage of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weak. Domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but are also affected by import pressure [31]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum, and domestic cotton prices are also under pressure. The short - term is expected to be oscillating and weak [32]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the spot freight rate accelerated its decline at the end of September. The decline rate may slow down after the National Day, and attention is paid to the shipping companies' price - cut rhythm [33].
冠通期货早盘速递-20250919
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:46
Key Points of the Report 1. Hot News - "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos said Fed Chair Powell's policy shift in Wednesday's rate cut might be his last attempt to prove the Fed's independence [2] - Reuters reported that the UAE might downgrade diplomatic relations with Israel if Netanyahu's government annexes parts or all of the occupied West Bank [2] - CCTV News reported that China's cumulative new - energy vehicle sales exceeded 40 million, ranking first globally for 10 consecutive years [2] - UBS's Hu Yifan said the Fed may cut rates by 75 basis points by Q1 2026 in the base scenario, and 200 - 300 basis points in the downside scenario [3] - White House's Hasset supported the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut [3] 2. Market Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.66% increase [4] - Precious metals rose 29.99%, followed by non - ferrous metals (19.97%), coal, coke, steel and minerals (14.69%), etc [5] Asset Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.15%, the S&P 500 rose 0.48%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.35% [7] - 10 - year Treasury futures declined 0.05%, WTI crude oil dropped 0.58%, and London spot gold fell 0.41% [7] Commodity Futures - Key commodities to watch include 20 - rubber, fuel oil, PTA, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [6] - Changes in commodity futures positions in the past five days are presented [7] 3. Other Aspects - Main trends of major commodities are shown, including BDI, CRB index, etc [8] - Stock market risk preferences are presented through data on risk premiums [13][14]
豆粕:美豆偏强,连粕或反弹,豆一:震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 03:39
商 品 研 2025 年 09 月 15 日 究 豆粕:美豆偏强,连粕或反弹 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 (日盘) | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 (夜盘) | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 (元/吨) | 3959 | +33(+0.84%) | 3956 | +0(+0.00%) | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 (元/吨) | 3070 | +4(+0.13%) | 3066 -21 | (-0.68%) | | | CBOT大豆11 (美分/蒲) | 1045.25 | +11.75(+1.14%) | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 (美元/短吨) | 288.3 | +0.6(+0.21%) | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 | (43%) | | | | 山东 (元/吨) | 3060~3090, 较昨+10至+20; M2601+0, 持平; | 现货M2601-60, 10-1月M2601+40/+50/+80, | 持平; 9月 ...