Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher on February 25, 2026, with base metals leading the gains [1]. - The A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival, but the slope will be slower than in January, pricing in the warm Spring Festival consumption and technology event hotspots. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate after the festival [16]. - The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The US GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, with personal consumption being the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures all showed varying degrees of increase on February 25, 2026, with the CSI 500 futures having a relatively large daily increase of 1.61% [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures mostly declined on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having a relatively large daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index increased by 0.15% on February 25, 2026, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 225 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 23.34 bp on February 25, 2026, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield increased by 1.24 bp [2]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On February 25, 2026, most industries showed an upward trend, with non - ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals having relatively large daily increases of 3.53%, 4.26%, and 2.37% respectively. The consumer services and media industries declined, with decreases of 0.52% and 0.92% respectively [5]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On February 24, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14%, NYMEX natural gas decreased by 2.94%, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 4.75% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold decreased by 1.25% on February 24, 2026, while CONEX silver increased by 0.57% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME tin, etc. showed different trends on February 24, 2026. For example, LME copper increased by 2.54% [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and other agricultural products also had different price changes on February 24, 2026. For example, CBOT soybean oil increased by 1.05% [8]. Macro Summary - **Domestic Macro**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption were strong, with the cross - regional passenger flow in the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season reaching 5.08 billion person - times, a record high. However, real estate sales were at a seasonal low, and the social financing in January started steadily. Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the social financing data needs to be observed in combination with January - February data [16]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, personal consumption was the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. - **Large - scale Assets**: Geopolitical uncertainties and Trump's tariff policies may support the prices of gold and silver in the short term. The crude oil market is dominated by geopolitical uncertainties, and the A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate, and the RMB may continue to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; stock index options are expected to be volatile; treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are all expected to be volatile [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Many non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend [17]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. are expected to be volatile [19]. - **Agriculture**: Many agricultural products such as cotton, natural rubber, and soybean oil are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend, while sugar is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker [19].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The report presents the price changes of various international varieties from February 13th, 15:00 to February 23rd, 18:00 in 2026, including stock indices, commodities, and currency indices [3]. 2. Key Points by Category Stock Indices - The FTSE A50 Index rose from 14,684 to 14,919, a 1.60% increase [3]. - The Hang Seng Index increased from 26,595.15 to 27,081.91, a 1.83% rise [3]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Index went up from 49,451.98 to 49,625.97, a 0.35% increase [3]. - The S&P 500 Index climbed from 6,832.76 to 6,909.51, a 1.12% gain [3]. - The NASDAQ Composite Index advanced from 22,597.15 to 22,886.07, a 1.28% increase [3]. - The Nikkei 225 Index dropped from 56,941.97 to 56,825.7, a 0.20% decline [3]. Commodity Indices - The Baltic Dry Index decreased from 2,083 to 2,043, a 1.92% fall [3]. Energy Commodities - Brent Crude Oil rose from $67.55 to $71.04, a 5.17% increase [3]. - US Crude Oil increased from $62.83 to $66.23, a 5.41% rise [3]. Precious Metals - CMX Gold climbed from $4,986.7 to $5,170.1, a 3.68% gain [3]. - CMX Silver advanced from $77.105 to $86.515, a 12.20% increase [3]. Base Metals - LME Copper rose from $12,894.5 to $12,966, a 0.55% increase [3]. - LME Aluminum increased from $3,062.5 to $3,102.5, a 1.31% rise [3]. - LME Zinc went up from $3,352.5 to $3,377.5, a 0.75% increase [3]. - LME Lead dropped from $1,976.5 to $1,963, a 0.68% decline [3]. - LME Nickel advanced from $17,255 to $17,600, a 2.00% increase [3]. - LME Tin climbed from $46,940 to $47,500, a 1.19% gain [3]. Iron Ore - TSI Iron Ore decreased from $97.15 to $95.85, a 1.34% fall [3]. Agricultural Commodities - CBOT Soybeans rose from $1,134.75 to $1,146.75, a 1.06% increase [3]. - CBOT Soybean Meal increased from $308.6 to $309.7, a 0.36% rise [3]. - CBOT Soybean Oil advanced from $57.26 to $59.67, a 4.21% increase [3]. - CBOT Corn climbed from $430.25 to $438.75, a 1.98% gain [3]. - CBOT Wheat rose from $550.75 to $575.75, a 4.54% increase [3]. - MDE Crude Palm Oil increased from 3,996 to 4,084, a 2.20% rise [3]. - ICE No. 2 Cotton advanced from 64.26 to 65.46, a 1.87% increase [3]. - ICE No. 11 Sugar climbed from 13.53 to 13.9, a 2.73% gain [3]. Currency Indices - The US Dollar Index rose from 97.0775 to 97.6349, a 0.57% increase [3]. Currency Pairs - The US Dollar against Offshore RMB decreased from 6.908 to 6.8852, a 0.33% decline [3].

春节期间金融市场风险事件不断，美伊紧张局势不断升温，美国可能对伊朗采取军事行动；美国最高法 院裁定美国政府大规模征收关税违法，白宫确认终止部分关税措施；特朗普全球关税不到24小时再加 码，由10%调高至法定上限15%。 美国1月消费者价格涨幅低于预期，但通胀压力持续存在；进口猛增导致美国12月贸易逆差扩大，2025年 商品贸易逆差仍创下历史新高；美国第四季GDP增速远逊预期，消费者支出放缓通胀升温。 美股最后一个交易日三大股指跌逾1%，受累于对AI冲击的担忧和新的关税焦虑；美元指数升至近一个月 高位，数据显示美国经济基础稳固。 大宗商品方面，油价收于六个月最高，交易商担忧美伊发生冲突；CBOT大豆升至三个月高位，受美国大 豆压榨强劲和中国买需增加预期推动；金价触及逾三周高点，因美最高法院推翻特朗普关税；LME期铜 触及逾一周高位，库存则创2025年3月以来新高。 **美元升至近一个月高位** 美元在春节期间走势强劲，连续第四个交易日走强，创下自1月初以来最长连涨纪录，升至近一个月高 位。数据显示美国经济基础稳固，这为美联储在短期内维持利率不变提供了空间。 美国劳工部周五公布的数据显示，上月消费者物价指数(CP ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price and cumulative percentage change of various commodities, stock market indices, and other important indicators during the Spring Festival holiday in the overseas market [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Commodities - NYMEX crude oil closed at $66.31 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.57% during the holiday [2] - NYMEX natural gas closed at $2.99 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 6.41% during the holiday [2] - COMEX gold closed at $5130.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.31% during the holiday [2] - COMEX silver closed at $84.57 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 9.45% during the holiday [2] - LME copper closed at $12964.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.25% during the holiday [2] - LME zinc closed at $3382.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.20% during the holiday [2] - LME nickel closed at $17435.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.59% during the holiday [2] - LME aluminum closed at $3102.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.39% during the holiday [2] - LME tin closed at $46559.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.62% during the holiday [2] - LME lead closed at $1965.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.35% during the holiday [2] - TSI iron ore CFR China (62% iron powder) closed at $95.30 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 1.60% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybeans closed at $1153.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.67% during the holiday [2] - CBOT corn closed at $428.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.87% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean oil closed at $59.34 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 3.80% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean meal closed at $314.20 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.58% during the holiday [2] - CBOT wheat closed at $581.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.97% during the holiday [2] - CBOT rice closed at $10.52 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 4.54% during the holiday [2] - ICE 11 - sugar closed at $13.86 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.29% during the holiday [2] - ICE 2 - cotton closed at $65.55 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.13% during the holiday [2] Stock Market - The S&P 500 closed at 6909.51 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.07% during the holiday [2] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22886.07 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.51% during the holiday [2] - The UK FTSE 100 closed at 10686.89 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.30% during the holiday [2] - The French CAC40 closed at 8515.49 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.45% during the holiday [2] - The German DAX closed at 25260.69 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.39% during the holiday [2] - The Nikkei 225 closed at 56825.70 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.20% during the holiday [2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26413.35 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.58% during the holiday [2] Other Important Indicators - The US dollar index closed at 97.74 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.91% during the holiday [2]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The factors affecting commodity prices are complex, with the core factors being financial and commodity attributes. The financial attributes include macro - liquidity, risk preference, and the role of the US dollar as a pricing "anchor". The commodity attributes involve supply - demand fundamentals, including both normal and abnormal influencing factors [2][3][7]. - Commodity prices do not rise and fall synchronously but follow a certain rotation order. Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios drives price rotation. Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products" [11][15][19]. - The current commodity pricing is influenced by the re - construction of the monetary "anchor", the abnormal supply - demand factors in commodity attributes, such as technological revolutions, industrial transformation, supply - chain re - construction under geopolitical influence, and strategic reserves. These factors have a more significant impact on prices compared to traditional supply - demand drivers [3]. - In the past two years, some commodities have shown strong performance, mainly led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The current commodity rally is mainly based on macro - narrative logic changes rather than traditional demand - driven cycles. If the economic cycle recovers more clearly, the traditional demand and cycle rotation will contribute more to commodity price increases [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Pricing Factors and Rotation Analysis Framework 3.1.1 Commodity Pricing Factors - Financial attributes: Conventional factors include macro - liquidity (e.g., monetary policy, interest rates, inflation expectations) and risk preference. At a higher level, the US dollar serves as the pricing "anchor" for commodities, and its "de - anchoring" can lead to significant price re - evaluation [2][7]. - Commodity attributes: Core drivers are based on supply and demand. Normal factors include supply - demand gaps, production costs, and inventory levels. Abnormal factors on the demand side include technological revolutions, industrial transformation, and national strategic reserves; on the supply side, they include policy regulation, wars, pandemics, export controls, and weather [3][8]. 3.1.2 Commodity Rotation Framework - Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios (price - ratio effect) promotes price diffusion and rotation. For example, when the price ratio of copper to gold or oil exceeds the historical average, it may trigger a mean - reversion [15]. - Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products". In the recession period, precious metals are favored for their hedging value; in the recovery period, industrial metals take the lead; in the over - heating period, energy performs strongly; and in the stagflation period, agricultural products make up for the late - stage increase [15][19]. 3.2 Two Rounds of Typical Commodity Cycle Trends Review - The first round was in the 1970s, during the depression of the fourth Kondratieff cycle. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and two oil crises led to a tripling of the CRB index. Gold led the rally, followed by oil, and then agricultural products [28][34]. - The second round was in the early 21st century, driven by China's rise. The CRB index also tripled. LME copper led the early stage, oil had a more significant increase in the later stage, and agricultural products had a late - stage rally [28][37]. - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, commodities followed the economic cycle rotation. Precious metals led in early 2009, industrial metals rebounded in the second and third quarters of 2009, oil prices climbed as the economy recovered, and after 2011, oil and agricultural products remained stable while precious metals and non - ferrous metals declined [40]. 3.3 Current Fundamental Situation and Rotation Status - In recent years, the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have risen significantly, leading to expectations of a new commodity super - cycle. In 2025, precious metals and non - ferrous metals led the rally, energy was at the bottom, and agricultural products had not yet started [42]. - The drivers include the decline of the US dollar's reserve status, the double - loose monetary and fiscal policies in the Kondratieff depression, the demand for upstream resources driven by the AI technological revolution, the deepening of geopolitical contradictions leading to increased strategic reserves, and the return of manufacturing. However, due to the uncertain economic recovery, the typical commodity diffusion and rotation based on the cycle have not yet occurred. If the traditional economic cycle rotation becomes more obvious, the commodity rally will spread to black metals, energy, and agricultural products [46][54].

| 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 | | --- | | 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 | | 联系方式：010-85356618 | 使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责 本报告仅向特定客户传送 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版 载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期货股份有限公司。 近五年涨跌幅均值 NYMEX原油 NYMEX天然 气 COMEX黄金 COMEX白银 LME铜 LME锌 LME镍 LME铝 LME锡 LME铅 CBOT大豆 CBOT玉米 CBOT豆油 CBOT豆粕 CBOT小麦 CBOT稻谷 ICE11号糖 ICE2号棉 花 标普500 美元指数 CRB商品指 数 BDI 近十年平均 0.01% -3.23% 0.82% 1.95% 0.00% 0.11% 0.44% 0.27% 1.70% 0.53% 0.61% -0.19% -0.43% 0.81% -0.53% -1.71% -0.07% 1.28% 0.08% -0.03% 0.01% 0.67% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% ...

Hot News - Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi clarified Iran's official stance on the talks with the US in Oman, stating that the negotiations will be held in Muscat around 10 am on February 6. The US previously rejected Iran's proposal to change the meeting location from Istanbul, Turkey, to Oman, causing concern in the Middle East [2] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will release the January non - farm payroll report on February 11, job vacancy data on February 5, and reschedule the release of the January CPI inflation report to February 13 [2] - A Reuters survey showed that due to a surge in exports during the seasonal production slowdown, Malaysia's palm oil inventory will end a 10 - month growth streak in January. Palm oil inventory is expected to drop to 2.91 million tons, a 4.64% decrease from December. Production is expected to fall 12% to 1.61 million tons, the third consecutive monthly decline, but it may still be the highest January production since 2019 [2] - Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Xi emphasized that the Taiwan issue is the most important issue in Sino - US relations, and the US must handle arms sales to Taiwan carefully [3] - EIA report data showed that in the week ending January 30, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a 0.82% decline. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, a 0.05% increase [3] Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are urea, coking coal, platinum, crude oil, and Shanghai copper [4] Night - session Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.09% increase; precious metals had a 34.97% increase; oilseeds and fats had an 8.21% increase; soft commodities had a 2.41% increase; non - ferrous metals had a 26.35% increase; coal, coke, steel, and minerals had a 10.07% increase; energy had a 2.32% increase; chemicals had a 9.89% increase; grains had a 0.97% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 2.73% increase [4] Sector Position - The data shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, etc. [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.85%, a monthly decrease of 0.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.36%; the SSE 50 had a daily increase of 1.14%, a monthly increase of 0.09%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.26%; the CSI 300 had a daily increase of 0.83%, a monthly decrease of 0.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.48%; the CSI 500 had a daily increase of 0.15%, a monthly decrease of 0.85%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.16%; the S&P 500 had a daily decrease of 0.51%, a monthly decrease of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.54%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily increase of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.97%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.75%; the German DAX had a daily decrease of 0.72%, a monthly increase of 0.26%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.46%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily decrease of 0.78%, a monthly increase of 1.82%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.85%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily increase of 0.85%, a monthly increase of 1.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.74% [6] Fixed - income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.01%, a monthly decrease of 0.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.35%; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.04%, a monthly decrease of 0.04%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.09%; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.05% [6] Commodities - The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.91%, a monthly decrease of 2.24%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.74%; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 1.90%, a monthly decrease of 1.90%, and a year - to - date increase of 12.02%; London spot gold had a daily increase of 0.38%, a monthly increase of 1.74%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.97%; LME copper had a daily decrease of 3.25%, a monthly decrease of 0.23%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.35%; the Wind commodity index had a daily increase of 6.68%, a monthly decrease of 10.35%, and a year - to - date increase of 24.00% [6] Others - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.27%, a monthly increase of 0.55%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.63%; the CBOE volatility index had a daily increase of 0.00%, a monthly increase of 3.21%, and a year - to - date increase of 20.40% [6] Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as stock market risk preferences and risk premiums [7]

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybean prices surged due to favorable US biodiesel policies, including a $1 per gallon tax credit for low-carbon transportation fuels [2][10] - Domestic protein meal market is weak, with inventory levels rising and terminal demand decreasing as stocking needs are nearing completion [2][10] - Oil mill operating rates are steadily increasing, contributing to supply pressure in the protein meal market [2][10] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil prices fell, following a general decline in commodity prices, but saw a rebound in night trading [3][11] - The US biodiesel policy changes are expected to impact the market, with a focus on the import policies for canola and the pace of inventory reduction in palm oil [3][11] - Domestic oil markets are showing signs of recovery, with palm oil prices trending stronger [3][11] Group 3: Live Pigs - Live pig futures experienced a decline, with a 0.53% drop, closing at 11,160 yuan per ton [5][12] - The average price of live pigs in China decreased to 12.34 yuan per kilogram, with regional variations noted [5][12] - Supply from northern farms is increasing, but limited demand from downstream markets is causing prices to fall [5][12] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures showed a decline of 0.74%, closing at 2,953 yuan per 500 kilograms [6][13] - The national average egg price fell to 3.65 yuan per jin, with regional prices also decreasing [6][13] - Demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a continued decline in egg prices [6][13] Group 5: Corn - Corn near-month futures saw a reduction in open interest, with a decrease of 58,000 contracts [7][14] - Prices in North China are stable but lack upward momentum, while farmers are increasingly willing to sell as the Spring Festival nears [7][14] - The market is experiencing a general decline in corn prices, with weak downstream demand affecting transactions [7][14]

Key Points - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 basis point cuts, aligning with market expectations. Fed Chair Powell indicated that rate hikes are not a basic assumption for future actions, emphasizing the Fed's independence [1][19] - President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, pending Senate approval. However, Senate leaders from both parties have expressed intentions to block Walsh's nomination unless investigations into Powell are dropped. Analysts suggest that Walsh's leadership could lead to significant changes in Fed policy, potentially combining rate cuts with balance sheet reduction [2][20] - Walsh's nomination triggered hawkish expectations, causing a historic drop in global precious metals markets. Silver fell over 35%, gold dropped nearly 13%, and platinum and palladium also saw significant declines [3][20] - China's January manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.3, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4, reflecting reduced business activity in the construction sector [4][21] - In the U.S., durable goods orders for November 2025 increased by 5.3%, the largest growth in six months, surpassing the expected 3.7% increase. Core durable goods orders rose by 0.5%, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth [5][21] - Trump stated that he is not concerned about the dollar's performance, suggesting it is returning to its appropriate level. Following his comments, the dollar index fell over 1%, reaching a nearly four-year low [6][21] Market Review Futures Market - ICE Brent crude oil rose by 7.32% to $69.83, while COMEX gold fell by 2.12% to $4907.5. The dollar index decreased by 39.01 basis points, leading to a depreciation of the yuan by 102 basis points [22][24] Stock Market - The A-share market saw a decline, with the small-cap index dropping 3.78%, while the Shanghai 50 index increased by 1.13%. The overall market sentiment has softened as the spring rally comes to an end [26][30] Bond Market - In the bond market, credit bonds generally declined, with 3Y and AA- bonds down by 7 basis points. Government bonds also saw slight declines, with 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y bonds down by 2 basis points [13][32]

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybean prices experienced a slight decline due to expectations of a bumper harvest in Brazil, with the Brazilian soybean production expected to reach record levels and exports projected at 110 million tons, a 6.7% increase from the previous year [2] - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association reported that soybean exports in January are expected to be 3.23 million tons, lower than the earlier forecast of 3.79 million tons [2] - Domestic protein meal showed strong fluctuations, supported by pre-holiday stocking demand, although arbitrage funds limited the price increase [2] Group 2: Oilseeds - BMD palm oil reached a three-month high, driven by rising commodity and crude oil prices, with increased geopolitical risks contributing to the price surge [3] - Domestic oilseed prices rose, with palm oil leading the increase, followed by soybean oil and rapeseed oil, supported by higher import costs and bullish market sentiment [3] - The market is characterized by mixed long and short positions, with prices showing strong fluctuations [3] Group 3: Live Pigs - The main live pig futures contract fell by 0.93%, closing at 11,165 yuan per ton, with the average price of live pigs in China at 12.34 yuan per kilogram, down 0.22 yuan from the previous day [4] - Increased supply from the breeding sector and weak demand led to a surplus, causing pig prices to continue declining [4] - The long-term trend of pig production capacity reduction remains unchanged, with attention on the pace of capacity reduction and potential opportunities in future contracts [4] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures broke the weekly fluctuation range and experienced a pullback, with the main contract down by 0.89%, closing at 3,021 yuan per 500 kilograms [12] - The national average egg price was 3.99 yuan per pound, with slight fluctuations in various markets [12] - The market is stable with some adjustments, and there is a warning of potential price declines as stocking approaches completion [12] Group 5: Corn - The main corn futures contract saw a reduction in positions, with limited fund inflows for the May and September contracts, leading to price declines [5] - High purchase prices in the northern ports and strong processing prices in production areas provided some support to market prices [5] - The overall pace of grain sales remains slow compared to the previous year, with stable prices in the sales regions [5]