1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Sugar**: The global sugar surplus situation in the 2025/26 season has improved. The international raw sugar price has strengthened due to factors such as the high - price of Brazilian ethanol and the possible lower - than - expected sugar production in India. In China, the sugar production is expected to slow down as southern sugar mills start to shut down, and the domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. The Zhengzhou sugar futures may rise in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [4]. - **Pulp**: The game between buyers and sellers in the wood pulp spot market continues. The downstream demand for finished paper is approaching the peak season, but the positive impact of seasonal demand fluctuations is not obvious. The cost - side support for pulp has increased, but the upward drive for pulp prices is limited in the short term. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [4][5]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The start - up rate of double - offset paper has rebounded after the Spring Festival, but the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The cost - side upward drive is not strong. It is expected to maintain range consolidation in the short term, and it is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The external market has limited new negative factors, and the domestic market is digesting the negative news of increased imports. The medium - term support for cotton prices remains, and the futures price is expected to enter a support range and return to a relatively strong shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [8]. - **Apple**: The decline in apple futures prices is mainly due to differences in the value of taking delivery. The supply - side support remains, but the consumption - side support is insufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [9]. - **Jujube**: The jujube futures price is in a low - level weak shock. The spot inventory is gradually reaching its seasonal peak and then declining. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract, and for long - position holders, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - **Apple 2605**: Return to wait - and - see. The supply - side support remains, but the consumption support is insufficient. The futures price continues to fluctuate in a high - level range. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - **Jujube 2605**: Short - term buy on dips. The expected reduction in production may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to reach its peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - **Sugar 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved. The southern sugar mills in China are starting to shut down, and the supply - demand fundamentals are improving, but the supply is still sufficient. The support range is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5650 [18]. - **Pulp 2605**: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - market price of broad - leaf pulp has driven the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement in the supply - demand situation of bleached softwood kraft pulp is limited. The support range is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400 [18]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Range operation. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. Short - term attention should be paid to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [18]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The significant increase in imported cotton and cotton yarn has put short - term pressure on the market, but the outer - market has stabilized and rebounded, and the medium - term upward trend of the futures price remains unchanged. The support range is 14900 - 15000, and the pressure range is 16300 - 16500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In January 2026, the export volume of fresh apples was about 99,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% and a year - on - year increase of 9.44%. In February, it was about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 4.4179 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 266,400 tons. As of March 26, it was 3.8947 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 294,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 217,900 tons [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock is stable, and the trading volume in cold storage is average. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume for the Tomb - sweeping Festival is acceptable. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the overall sales speed is average, and the mainstream price is stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,700 tons, a decrease of 117 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 7.39%. The downstream customers mainly purchase on demand, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 29.67% year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 25.27 percentage points year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 88.60% year - on - year. In India, the sugar - making work in the 2025/26 season in the state of Maharashtra is coming to an end. In Thailand, as of March 25, 2026, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 8.81% year - on - year, and the sugar production increased by 12.01% year - on - year. As of March 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also decreased. India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the same period last year. As of March 30, 25/26 season in Guangxi, 37 sugar mills have shut down, with a shutdown capacity of 332,000 tons per day [24]. - **Pulp Market**: After the Spring Festival, Chinese buyers returned to the market. The price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton in February, and sellers announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which led to cautious waiting and watching by buyers. The terminal users' resistance sentiment intensified, the domestic market trading was weak, many factories shut down, and the port inventory increased by 205,000 tons [27]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: Last Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased. This week, the start - up load rate of double - offset paper was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points week - on - week [28]. - **Cotton Market**: As of March 29, 2026, 1,100 cotton processing enterprises in the 2025 cotton year processed and carried out notarized inspection on cotton, with an inspection quantity of 33,712,814 bales and an inspection weight of 7.61 million tons. From March 20 to 26, 2026, the United States graded and inspected 3,700 tons of cotton in the 2025/26 season, and 82.2% of the lint met the delivery requirements of ICE cotton futures [29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9863 | - 104 | - 1.04% | | Jujube 2605 | 8775 | - 95 | - 1.07% | | Sugar 2605 | 5441 | - 23 | - 0.42% | | Pulp 2605 | 5182 | - 20 | - 0.38% | | Cotton 2605 | 15385 | - 10 | - 0.06% | [30] - **Spot Market Review** | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5460 | 0 | - 720 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5180 | - 40 | - 1300 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 800 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16823 | 9 | 1959 | [35] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no text description of the basis situation, only relevant figure references are provided. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1100 | - 100 | 1006 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 385 | - 35 | - 80 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 26 | - 3 | - 127 | Oscillate | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 130 | 5 | 15 | Oscillate weakly | Short on rallies | [55] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There is no text description of the futures position situation, only relevant figure references are provided. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 4273 | 0 | - 2341 | | Sugar | 16862 | 520 | - 10548 | | Pulp | 188163 | 2601 | - 187102 | | Cotton | 12435 | 1 | 3160 | [87] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no text description of the option - related data, only relevant figure references are provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, corn and hog futures broke through support and declined, while egg futures fluctuated downward. The previous trading strategies for these three commodities have been verified by the market [6][8]. - For corn, in the medium - short term, rising temperatures and increased wheat supply may cause short - term price corrections, but the downward space is limited before the import policy is relaxed. In the long term, the pricing logic is based on substitution and planting costs, with a focus on policy guidance [13]. - For hogs, in the short term, the supply - demand imbalance will keep prices low. In the medium term, supply pressure will ease starting from April. In the long term, the decline in sow inventory is less than expected, and the upside potential of far - month contracts is limited [41]. - For eggs, in the medium - short term, egg prices are expected to fluctuate around the breeding cost in Q2. In the long term, the continuous expansion of the egg - laying hen breeding scale may limit price increases, and waiting for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Corn 3.1.1 Market Performance - Corn futures fluctuated upward, with the 2605 contract rising 5.06% in the quarter and closing at 2369 yuan/ton as of March 27 [8]. 3.1.2 Macro Logic - Internationally, geopolitical conflicts drive up macro sentiment. Domestically, macro drivers are mainly reflected in industrial policies [10][87]. 3.1.3 Industry Logic - It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle. Key factors to watch include reserve purchases, auctions of directional rice/imported corn, and grain import policies [11][88]. 3.1.4 Supply - Demand Logic - In the 2025/26 season, the domestic corn supply - demand pattern is approaching balance. Globally, supply pressure has decreased year - on - year, but there is significant supply pressure in the new season for US corn. In China, imports have little impact on domestic supply in the short term due to import restrictions. In the long term, domestic corn production can cover consumption. In Q2, supply pressure mainly comes from policy - based grain releases and wheat substitution. On the demand side, livestock and poultry inventories are still high, but the breeding industry may enter a capacity - reduction phase in 2026. The narrowing price gap between wheat and corn has increased the substitution of wheat [12][89]. 3.1.5 Variety View - In the medium - short term, rising temperatures and increased wheat supply may lead to short - term price corrections, but the downward space is limited before the import policy is relaxed. In the long term, the pricing logic is based on substitution and planting costs, with a focus on policy guidance [13][90]. 3.1.6 Trading Strategy - Futures: Adopt a wide - range trading strategy in the medium term, with short - term corrections. The 2605 contract has a resistance level at 2400, with the first support at 2350 - 2370 and the second at 2310 - 2330. Consider buying on dips after the negative impact of policy - based grain auctions is realized [14][91]. - Options: It is expected that the corn supply - demand pattern will remain balanced in 2026, with prices fluctuating in the range of 2200 - 2450 in the long term. As the upward price expectation has been mostly realized, volatility may narrow. It is recommended to sell options based on support and resistance levels [14][91]. - Arbitrage: The normal range of the corn basis is between - 100 and + 100, with some cases between - 200 and + 200. When the basis is outside the [-100, +100] range, conduct a feasibility analysis of cash - and - carry arbitrage. Currently, the basis is normal, and consider a cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity when the basis weakens to below - 200 yuan/ton [14][91]. 3.2 Hogs 3.2.1 Market Performance - Hog futures declined significantly, with the 2605 contract falling 18.08% in the quarter and closing at 9965 yuan/ton as of March 27 [8]. 3.2.2 Macro Logic - Pay attention to the interaction between China's CPI and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy guidance [45][100]. 3.2.3 Industry Logic - Under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies, the structure of the breeding market may change [45][100]. 3.2.4 Supply - Demand Logic - Supply: As of December 2025, the inventory of fertile sows was 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal level, with a smaller - than - expected decline. From January to September 2025, the monthly number of newborn piglets increased, resulting in high hog supply before March 2026. However, the number of newborn piglets decreased for three consecutive months from October to December 2025, indicating a potential easing of supply pressure starting from April 2026. In January 2026, the number of newborn piglets increased by 1% month - on - month. Currently, the average slaughter weight is at a high level, and the impact of second - fattening on supply needs to be monitored. In terms of imports and frozen inventories, imports have little impact on the market, and the frozen inventory is at a relatively low level [40][49][51]. - Demand: Pork consumption is relatively rigid. In Q2, focus on the enthusiasm for second - fattening and frozen inventory replenishment. After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for consumption, and the downstream consumption may recover slightly in Q2, but the driving force for price increases is limited [54]. 3.2.5 Variety View - Short - term: The supply - demand imbalance will keep prices low, and pay attention to the sentiment of second - fattening and frozen inventory replenishment. - Medium - term: Supply pressure will ease starting from April - June, with a focus on the impact of diseases. - Long - term: Supply pressure will persist until August, but the upside potential of far - month contracts is limited due to the smaller - than - expected decline in sow inventory [41][96]. 3.2.6 Trading Strategy - Futures: Adopt a bottom - range trading strategy. The 2605 contract will continue to seek support. The 2607 and 2609 contracts in Q3 may have a slight recovery after the supply pressure is released. For contracts in Q4 and later, wait for sow data to determine the trading direction. If the sow data remains high from January to February, consider short - selling [42][97]. - Options: As hog prices are at a low level, the volatility of the futures market has decreased. It is recommended to sell options to short - sell volatility, focusing on selling options near support and resistance levels [43][98]. - Arbitrage: Given the seasonal fluctuations in hog prices and the rapid changes in supply - driven logic, consider a reverse arbitrage opportunity by selling near - month contracts and buying the 2701 contract [43][98]. 3.3 Eggs 3.3.1 Market Performance - Egg futures fluctuated within a range, with the 2605 contract falling 0.17% in the quarter and closing at 3502 yuan/500 kg as of March 27 [8]. 3.3.2 Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes. In the second half of the year, focus on the impact of meat and vegetable prices [62][103]. 3.3.3 Industry Logic - The market share of leading enterprises in the egg - laying hen breeding industry is relatively low. Enterprises have a strong expansion意愿, and large - scale breeding is promoting the transformation from traditional decentralized breeding to intensive breeding. Small - scale farmers are expected to gradually exit the market, and brand building will become an important development direction [63][104]. 3.3.4 Supply - Demand Logic - Supply: At the end of 2025, egg prices rose rapidly, and the culling of laying hens slowed down, resulting in a post - poned supply pressure. In February 2026, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.35 billion, and the estimated inventory in March was 1.342 billion. The concentrated culling of hens from October to November 2025 will lead to a decrease in the supply of newly - laid eggs in April 2026, providing some support to the market. However, the low culling rate during the Spring Festival has increased the proportion of large - sized eggs, limiting the upside potential of egg prices. If the culling rate is lower than expected in the first half of the year, the supply pressure will continue to accumulate [64][105]. - Demand: In Q2, egg consumption may recover, and pay attention to the inventory level. Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, downstream stocking demand was strong, and the social inventory was low. Egg consumption follows a seasonal pattern, and focus on the stocking intensity before holidays and changes in social inventory [82]. 3.3.5 Variety View - Medium - short term: Egg prices are expected to fluctuate around the breeding cost in Q2, and pay attention to the culling and molting rhythm of laying hens. - Long term: The continuous expansion of the egg - laying hen breeding scale may extend the price bottom cycle and limit the price increase driven by culling. Wait patiently for the over - culling to drive capacity reduction [65][106]. 3.3.6 Trading Strategy - Futures: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the medium - short term, and consider short - selling in the long term when supply contradictions accumulate. For the 2605 contract, the support level is 3300, and the resistance level is 3600; for the 2606 contract, the support is 3100, and the resistance is 3350; for the 2607 contract, the support is 3300, and the resistance is 3500; for the 2608 contract, the support is 3900, and the resistance is 4200; for the 2609 contract, the support is 3600 - 3700, and the resistance is 3900. Pay attention to the inventory level and the culling rhythm of laying hens. If the inventory of laying hens remains above 1.3 billion in the first half of the year, the upside potential of egg prices in the second half of the year is limited. It is recommended that breeding enterprises lock in profits through far - month contracts [66][107]. - Options: For near - month contracts, the bearish expectation has been mostly realized, and the volatility has narrowed. It is recommended to sell put options near the support level. For far - month contracts after Q2, pay attention to the capacity - reduction rhythm of laying hens. If there is a large - scale capacity reduction, consider buying out - of - the - money call options; otherwise, consider selling call options when the price rises [66][107]. - Arbitrage: In 2026, the egg market may enter a capacity - reduction phase, and market sentiment has a significant impact on price fluctuations. If over - culling occurs, consider a reverse arbitrage opportunity; if culling is lower than expected due to large - scale breeding, consider a positive arbitrage opportunity. Focus on the strength relationship between contracts around peak consumption seasons, such as the 8 - 9 and 12 - 02 contracts [67][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval trading [1] - Live pigs: Near - term weak, long - term strong [1] - Eggs: Short - term high - selling in near - month contracts [2] 2. Core Views - Corn: Short - term, rising temperature and policy grain auctions may ease supply - demand tightness and pressure spot prices; long - term, pricing is based on substitution and planting costs, focus on policy [1]. - Live pigs: Short - term, supply exceeds demand in March, pig prices may stay low; mid - term, supply pressure eases from April - June; long - term, supply pressure exists before August, but far - month contract highs are expected to be lower [2]. - Eggs: Mid - short - term, inventory stops falling and rises, egg prices are stable with a slight upward trend, but supply pressure is postponed; long - term, increasing养殖规模 may extend the price bottom period [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - Night session on the previous day: Corn futures fluctuated. The main 2605 contract rose 0.08% to 2,383 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices: Northeast average was 2,258 yuan/ton, unchanged from Friday; North China average was 2,449 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from Friday [1]. - Port prices: Jinzhou Port purchase price was 2,350 - 2,370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from Friday; Shekou Port transaction price was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from Friday [1]. - Wheat - corn spread in Shandong: As of March 16, it was 120 yuan/ton, narrowing 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Corn futures warehouse receipts: On March 16, it increased by 3,291 lots to 78,463 lots [1]. - Policy: 500,000 tons of minimum - purchase - price wheat will be auctioned on March 18, and the restriction on flour - processing enterprises participating in the auction is cancelled [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: Rising temperature and policy grain auctions may ease supply - demand tightness and pressure spot prices. - Long - term: Pricing is based on substitution and planting costs, focus on policy. Trading Strategy - Medium - term: Maintain a wide - range trading idea. - Short - term: May face downward pressure. For the 2605 contract, resistance is at 2,400, first support is at 2,350 - 2,370, and second support is at 2,300 - 2,330 [1]. Live Pigs Market Review - The previous day: Near - month contracts of live - pig futures fell below support. The main 2605 contract fell 3.14% to 10,810 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - Pig prices: On March 16, the national average was 10.11 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. On March 17 morning, prices varied by region [1]. - Sow inventory: At the end of December, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, down 2.9% year - on - year, 101.6% of the normal level [1]. - Piglet numbers: From January - September 2025, the number increased monthly (except in July). From October - December 2025, it decreased monthly, and in January 2026, it increased 1% [1]. - Pig weight: As of March 12, the average slaughter weight was 125.88 kg, up 0.02 kg from the previous week [1]. - Fat - lean price spread: On March 16, it was 0.32 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Live - pig futures warehouse receipts: On March 16, it decreased by 1 lot to 1,132 lots [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: Supply exceeds demand in March, pig prices may stay low. - Mid - term: Supply pressure eases from April - June. - Long - term: Supply pressure exists before August, but far - month contract highs are expected to be lower [2]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a bottom - range trading idea. For the 2605 contract, support is at 10,500, resistance is at 11,000 - 11,200; for the 2607 contract, support is at 12,000, resistance is at 12,300 - 12,400; for the 2609 contract, support is at 13,000, resistance is at 13,300 [2]. Eggs Market Review - The previous day: Egg futures fluctuated. The main 2605 contract fell 0.49% to 3,439 yuan/500KG [2]. Important Information - Egg prices: On March 16, the national average in the main production areas was 3.16 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; in the main sales areas, it was 3.34 yuan/jin, unchanged [2]. - Inventory: On March 16, the average production - link inventory was 1.07 days, unchanged; the circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days, up 0.01 days [2]. - Old hen prices: On March 16, the average was 5.32 yuan/jin, slightly up. As of March 12, the weekly culling age was 505 days, up 3 days from the previous week [2]. - Laying - hen inventory: In February, it was about 1.35 billion, up 0.6% month - on - month and 3.37% year - on - year. The theoretical estimate for March is 1.342 billion [2]. Market Logic - Mid - short - term: Inventory stops falling and rises, egg prices are stable with a slight upward trend, but supply pressure is postponed. - Long - term: Increasing养殖规模 may extend the price bottom period [2]. Trading Strategy - Look for short - term high - selling opportunities in near - month contracts. For the 2604 contract, resistance is at 3,290 - 3,300, first support is at 3,250, second support is at 3,200; for the 2605 contract, resistance is at 3,450 - 3,500, first support is at 3,400, second support is at 3,300 - 3,340 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar opened high and went high this week, with a weekly increase of 1.42%. The sugar production in India may fall short of expectations, improving the global sugar surplus situation in the 2025/26 season. The new sugar - crushing season in Brazil is approaching, and the weather in Brazil needs to be closely monitored. The continuous conflict in the Middle East may lead to a decrease in the sugar - making ratio, which is positive for the raw sugar price. Although the sugar supply in China is still relatively sufficient, the supply - demand fundamentals are improving [3]. - **Pulp**: The energy market fluctuates sharply, and pulp is affected to a limited extent, with the market still under pressure. The news of the shutdown of Metsa Fiber's Joutseno factory boosts sentiment, but the market reaction is not significant. The high inventory of coniferous pulp of overseas producers and weak - stable demand in China weaken the positive impact of the production - cut news. The downstream finished paper market is gradually improving after the festival, but the seasonal demand fluctuation has limited positive effects. The potential increase in freight rates and costs may provide support, but the rebound height is not yet clear [3]. - **Double - offset paper**: After the festival, the operating rate of double - offset paper has rebounded from a low level, but downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The cost support has weakened. In March, the demand enters the peak season due to publisher tenders, but the high total production capacity and low capacity utilization may make it difficult to change the supply - loose situation. It is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term [5][6]. - **Apples**: The futures price decreased this week as the market's divergence on the value of taking delivery increased, and the bullish sentiment cooled down. The supply side still has medium - term support, but the consumption side lacks continuous impetus. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. The focus of the apple market will shift to consumption realization and new - season weather [7]. - **Red dates**: The futures price of red dates rebounded after a low - level reduction in positions. The spot inventory is gradually reaching its seasonal peak and then declining. The price of high - quality goods is rising, and the price of ordinary goods is stable. The futures - spot price difference contradiction has been alleviated. The market is waiting for the weather trading theme in the second quarter [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh fruit and nut futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to reduce or exit long positions at high prices, with a support range of 9000 - 9200 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500; for Red dates 2605, it is recommended to reduce short positions, with a support range of 8900 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9300 - 9700 [16]. - **Soft commodity futures**: For Sugar 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions with a light position, with a support range of 5000 - 5330 and a pressure range of 5600 - 5650; for Pulp 2605, it is recommended to short on rallies, with a support range of 5150 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5400; for Double - offset paper 2605, it is recommended to conduct range operations, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4250 - 4300 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9998 | - 318 | - 3.08 | | Red dates 2605 | 9095 | 70 | 0.78 | | Sugar 2605 | 5447 | 76 | 1.42 | | Pulp 2605 | 5272 | - 50 | - 0.94 | | Double - offset paper 2602 | 4230 | - 4 | - 0.09 | [17] 3.2.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.70 | 0.00 | 0.55 | | Red dates (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5470 | 20 | - 590 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5280 | 0 | - 1300 | [22] 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the basis of apple, red dates, sugar, and pulp [33][34][35]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the spreads of apple, red dates, and sugar [38][40][42]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Red dates | 4027 | 0 | - 1854 | | Sugar | 16342 | 0 | - 11833 | | Pulp | 189232 | 8834 | - 190487 | [43] 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - related Data - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: For Apple 2605, sell out - of - the - money put options; for Red dates 2605, sell deep out - of - the - money call options; for Sugar 2605, sell out - of - the - money put options [43]. - **Apple Option Data**: There are references to figures such as option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility [45]. - **Sugar Option Data**: There are references to figures such as option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility [46]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation - **Apple**: - **Production area weather**: There are references to figures of minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi [49][50][51]. - **Export situation**: There is a reference to the figure of monthly apple export volume [54]. - **Inventory situation**: There are references to figures of national apple inventory, and weekly storage inventories in Shandong and Shaanxi [54][56]. - **Red dates**: There are references to figures of weekly trading volumes in Henan and Hebei, and daily arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market [58]. - **Sugar**: There are references to figures of national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and spot - futures difference [60][61][63]. - **Pulp**: There are references to figures of domestic 4 - port pulp inventory, global producer wood pulp inventory days, and production volumes of various types of paper [66][68][70]. - **Double - offset paper**: There are references to figures of capacity utilization rate, production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume [79][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the price difference between different oil grades in the Red Sea region before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits when the price is high [5]. - For urea, due to the expected increase in production in the first quarter and limited positive impact on quotas, short it when the price is high as the fundamental outlook is bearish [8]. - For rubber, treat BR as strong in the short term. If BR turns weak, consider shorting RU. Hedge by buying NR and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the excessive rise [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East conflict, the valuation repair space for styrene is shrinking. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the price is high [23]. - For polypropylene, the short - term market is dominated by the geopolitical conflict, and the long - term contradiction is shifting from cost to production mismatch [26]. - For PX, although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March, and the medium - term supply - demand structure is strong. However, beware of the short - term excessive rise [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The PXN still has room for upward valuation in the context of the Middle East situation, but be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline. However, be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 80.30 yuan/barrel, a 10.76% decline, at 666.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 51.00 yuan/ton, a 1.15% decline, to 4386.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil fell 91.00 yuan/ton, an 1.82% decline, to 4908.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategic Views**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the price difference between different oil grades in the Red Sea region before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: In the spot market, prices in Jiangsu changed by - 285 yuan/ton, Shandong (Lunan) by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 130 yuan/ton, Hebei by 195 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 120 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 209.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2549 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 629 yuan [4]. - **Strategic Views**: Since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits when the price is high [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei changed by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei and Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at 4 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 49 yuan/ton, closing at 1856 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategic Views**: Due to the expected increase in production in the first quarter and limited positive impact on quotas, short it when the price is high as the fundamental outlook is bearish [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The macro - situation led to a rise in crude oil, driving up the price of butadiene and butadiene rubber (BR). The price of BR rose much more than that of natural rubber, which had a positive impact on the prices of RU and NR. The overall market changed rapidly, and there were different views on the market trend. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, up 34.11 percentage points from the previous week and down 2.35 percentage points year - on - year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, up 35.17 percentage points from the previous week and down 8.89 percentage points year - on - year. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 million tons, a 5.4% increase from the previous month. As of February 24, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons [11][12]. - **Strategic Views**: Treat BR as strong in the short term. If BR turns weak, consider shorting RU. Hedge by buying NR and shorting RU2609. Trade in the short - term according to the market and set stop - losses [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 237 yuan, closing at 5229 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4980 (- 780) yuan/ton, the basis was - 249 (- 483) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 89 (+ 22) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 (+ 125) yuan/ton, and the price of semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a 18.7% increase from the previous period. The factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (- 4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+ 5.1) [15]. - **Strategic Views**: Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the excessive rise [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 7685 yuan/ton, a 1740 - yuan/ton decline. The closing price of the active contract was 8007 yuan/ton, a 1740 - yuan/ton decline. The basis of pure benzene was - 322 yuan/ton, a 1592 - yuan/ton reduction. The spot price of styrene was 12000 yuan/ton, a 3000 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active contract was 9915 yuan/ton, a 328 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 2085 yuan/ton, a 2672 - yuan/ton strengthening. The BZN spread was 186 yuan/ton, a 5.62 - yuan/ton decline. The profit of non - integrated EB units was 750.85 yuan/ton, a 535.6 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, a 1.75 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [19]. - **Strategic Views**: With the easing of the Middle East conflict, the valuation repair space for styrene is shrinking. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7767 yuan/ton, a 177 - yuan/ton decline. The spot price was 7650 yuan/ton, a 1750 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 117 yuan/ton, a 1573 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 86.73%, a 0.54% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 53.62 million tons, a 4.35 - million - ton decrease, and the trader inventory was 5.77 million tons, a 1.08 - million - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 20%, a 1.78% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 323 yuan/ton, a 135 - yuan/ton expansion [22]. - **Strategic Views**: With the cooling of the Middle East conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the price is high [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7820 yuan/ton, a 214 - yuan/ton decline. The spot price was 7900 yuan/ton, a 1450 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was 80 yuan/ton, a 1236 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.54% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 65.51 million tons, an 8.48 - million - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 21.26 million tons, a 3.71 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 8.14 million tons, a 0.72 - million - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 53 yuan/ton, a 37 - yuan/ton expansion. The PP5 - 9 spread was 495 yuan/ton, a 146 - yuan/ton expansion [25]. - **Strategic Views**: The short - term market is dominated by the geopolitical conflict, and the long - term contradiction is shifting from cost to production mismatch [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 126 yuan, closing at 8902 yuan. The PX CFR fell 195 US dollars, to 1151 US dollars. The basis was 249 yuan (- 1452), and the 5 - 7 spread was 324 yuan (+ 20). The operating load in China was 90.4%, a 2% decrease, and the Asian load was 83.2%, a 1.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas units were under maintenance or reduced production. The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. In February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 41.5 million tons, a 0.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 303 US dollars (+ 20), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (- 11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 92 US dollars (- 54) [28]. - **Strategic Views**: Although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March, and the medium - term supply - demand structure is strong. However, beware of the short - term excessive rise [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 116 yuan, closing at 6200 yuan. The East China spot price fell 1020 yuan, to 6180 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 300 yuan (+ 54). The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. Some units were under maintenance or resumed production. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The terminal operating rates of texturing and weaving increased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 259.7 million tons, a 9.5 - million - ton increase. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 15 yuan, to 176 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 34 yuan, to 360 yuan [31]. - **Strategic Views**: It is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The PXN still has room for upward valuation in the context of the Middle East situation, but be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 292 yuan, closing at 4305 yuan. The East China spot price fell 405 yuan, to 4408 yuan. The basis was 2 yuan (- 35), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (- 100). The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 5.7% decrease, with some domestic and overseas units under maintenance or reduced production. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The terminal operating rates of texturing and weaving increased. The import arrival forecast was 7.8 million tons, and the East China departure was 1 million tons on March 9. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, a 6.6 - million - ton increase. The naphtha - based production profit was - 1673 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 724 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 661 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 950 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 580 yuan [33]. - **Strategic Views**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline. However, be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean meal futures, the mid - term trend is in a wide - range oscillation pattern due to the game between cost support and supply pressure. The price is affected by factors such as the recovery of domestic oil mill operating rates, downstream aquaculture profit losses, rising imported soybean prices, and downstream feed companies' replenishment needs [6]. - For soybean oil futures, the mid - term trend is in a relatively strong oscillation pattern. Although the supply is becoming more abundant and the downstream consumption is slow to recover, the price is supported by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the expected strengthening of US biodiesel policies [29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. The domestic oil mill operating rate has recovered, and the supply of soybean meal is becoming more abundant. However, downstream aquaculture profit losses lead to cautious purchases by feed companies, resulting in continuous light spot transactions. At the same time, imported soybean prices are rising, and downstream feed companies' rigid demand for replenishment supports the price [6]. - Trend judgment logic: In the 9th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 588,600 tons, the operating rate was 16.19%, and the soybean meal inventory was 701,200 tons [6]. - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Pay attention to South American weather changes, US tariff policies, and domestic aquaculture demand [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was in an upward channel, and the funds were relatively bearish. The M2605 was expected to be in an oscillation pattern in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2730 - 2900 [9]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is in an upward channel, and the funds are slightly bearish. In the short term, under the transmission of cost support and geopolitical risk premiums, the M2605 may be in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern [10]. 3.1.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [19][22][25] 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a relatively strong oscillation stage. Although the supply is becoming more abundant and the downstream consumption is slow to recover, the price is supported by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the expected strengthening of US biodiesel policies [29]. - Trend judgment logic: In the 9th week, the actual output of soybean oil from 125 oil mills was 111,800 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 913,300 tons [29]. - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Pay attention to US biodiesel policies, crude oil trends, and domestic demand [29]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: Supported by geopolitical risk premiums and biodiesel policies, but the high inventory suppresses the upward space. In the short term, the Y2605 may show a slightly stronger oscillation pattern. Pay attention to crude oil price fluctuations and inventory destocking rhythms [32]. - This week's strategy suggestion: Under the emotional support of geopolitical conflicts and the expected US biodiesel policy, the Y2605 may be mainly in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern in the short term. Pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran situation and crude oil price fluctuations [33]. 3.2.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, and weekly operating rate. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [43][48][50][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report formulates trading strategies based on the fundamental situation of loose global supply - demand of beans and strong supply but weak demand in China. It believes that the overall situation of the bean market is "easy to fall and difficult to rise", and recommends a short - selling strategy [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Bean Supply - Demand Pattern - **Lack of Sustainability in US Soybean Strength and Emerging Supply Pressure**: The current short - term strength of the US soybean market is driven by policy procurement expectations and speculative funds. However, the net long position of US soybeans is close to a historical high, and the new - season planting area is expected to increase to 85 million acres, limiting the upside space. The average cost in 2026 is about 1256 cents per bushel, which will be a significant pressure line [3]. - **Brazil's Harvest Acceleration Leading Supply and Strengthening South America's Dominance**: As of February 20, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was about 30%. The national output is expected to reach 180 million tons. Argentina's output is expected to decline slightly to 48.5 million tons due to less precipitation in the early stage [9]. 3.2 Domestic Bean Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply Side**: As of February 20, 2026, China's port inventory was 5.594 million tons, at a relatively high level in the same period since 2013. Brazilian and US soybeans will be shipped in large quantities, and the supply pressure will increase from mid - April [13]. - **Demand Side**: The deterioration of pig farming profits has accelerated the de - capacity of the pig industry, and the demand for pig feed has become weak [16]. 3.3 Core Influence Variables - **Policy Disturbance**: Policy - related expectations from Sino - US economic and trade consultations are short - term emotional supports and difficult to change the long - term trend. The domestic reserve soybean auction policy may suppress the upward space of soybean meal prices [20]. - **Cost Support**: The rigid support of import costs limits the decline of soybean meal prices. The soybean meal has strong cost support at around 2700 - 2720 yuan per ton and is difficult to fall deeply [21]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Core Strategy**: Short - sell B2605/M2605 contracts on rallies. Enter the market at 2830 - 2870 yuan per ton, set the stop - loss at about 2930 yuan per ton, and the take - profit targets at 2750 and 2700 yuan per ton. The position should be 20% - 30% of the total capital [23][24]. - **Auxiliary Strategy**: Sell the M2605 - C - 2850 call option, which has a high safety margin but limited returns [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Metals - The precious metals market is gradually stabilizing. It is recommended to go long on gold again, and the long - term outlook remains positive. For silver, the spot market is still tight, but the price fluctuations on the futures market are increasing, so cautious participation is advised [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival. Aluminum is expected to maintain a short - term price oscillation. Alumina has upward potential due to marginal supply contraction. Industrial silicon is likely to oscillate between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices can be considered if the large - scale production cuts are short - lived. Lithium carbonate is expected to have an upward - biased price trend. Polysilicon is expected to weakly oscillate between 45000 - 53000 yuan/ton. Tin also requires waiting for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [1][3][4]. Black Industry - For rebar, iron ore, and coking coal, the recommended strategy is mainly to wait and see, while aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions [5]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal, focus on China's purchases of US soybeans and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market, with a unilateral oscillation in search of a bottom and an inverse spread structure. Corn futures are expected to oscillate upward. For oils and fats, the market has entered an oscillation phase, with an inverse spread strategy. For cotton, it is advisable to buy at low prices. Egg, and hog futures are expected to oscillate downward [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and is recommended to be bought at low prices in the medium term. PVC is recommended to be observed. For PX, the mid - term long - position view remains unchanged, and for PTA, appropriate profit - taking is advised. Glass suggests a strategy of buying glass and selling soda ash. PP is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the medium term. MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices for short - term opportunities. Styrene is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term. Soda ash is recommended to be observed [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metals opened higher, oscillated, and slightly climbed in the night session yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, and there were downward revisions in previous data. Market expectations for interest - rate cuts have been postponed. The US budget deficit has shrunk, but future deficit expectations are rising. There are changes in gold and silver inventories and ETF holdings [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The precious metals market is stabilizing. Go long on gold and be cautious with silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices rose and then declined yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The stronger - than - expected non - farm data led to a stronger US dollar and weaker metals. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the domestic demand for replenishment has ended [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [3]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.62% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants are operating at high loads, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate has slightly increased [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to uncertainties in the macro - environment and a supply - demand balance, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.25% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants are in the production - reduction and overhaul phase, while electrolytic aluminum plants are operating at high loads [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the subsequent overhaul and shutdown situations as there is upward potential in the price [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased last week, mainly in Xinjiang. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, and the aluminum alloy operating rate is stable [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is in a supply - demand balance. Observe the resumption of production by large enterprises after the Spring Festival. Consider short - selling at high prices if the production cuts are short - lived [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 9.41% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Some lithium salt plants are under maintenance. Production and demand in the lithium - related industries are expected to decline. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in Q1, and the number of inventory days has increased [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market has an upward - biased expectation for the material production in March. The price is expected to oscillate upward [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract increased by 230 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production is stable, and the inventory is unchanged. The production of silicon wafers is stable, while that of battery cells and components is expected to decline. The photovoltaic export policy provides some support [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to weakly oscillate between 45000 - 53000 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices continued to oscillate upward [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the downstream replenishment has ended [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory has increased. The building material demand is weak, but the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The plate demand is stable, and the inventory change is at a historical high. Steel mills are in a loss, and the production increase is limited [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased. The iron ore supply - demand is neutral. The iron - water production has slightly increased. The furnace - charge replenishment is almost complete, and the inventory days are above the historical average. There is a structural contradiction in the port inventory [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract decreased by 7.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - water production has increased. Steel mills are in a loss, and the blast - furnace production may decline. The first round of price increases has been implemented, and there are no further plans. The overall inventory is at a medium level, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The USDA report increased the Brazilian soybean production, and the global supply is becoming more abundant. The US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is increasing [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US soybeans are strong. Focus on China's purchases and South American production. The domestic market is weaker, with a unilateral oscillation in search of a bottom and an inverse spread structure [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are rising, while the spot prices in the Northeast are slightly falling and those in the North China are slightly rising [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not high. The selling sentiment in the Northeast has increased, and the downstream is gradually stopping purchases [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures prices are expected to oscillate upward due to policy support [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market is weak in the short term [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 14% month - on - month in January, and the export increased by 11%. The inventory decreased by 7.7% to 2.82 million tons [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market has entered an oscillation phase, with an inverse spread strategy. Pay attention to future production and bio - diesel policies [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The overnight ICE US cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the international crude oil prices continued to rise [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The global cotton production in 25/26 is expected to increase. The Indian cotton production remains unchanged. The domestic cotton prices are rising, and the textile enterprises' inventory has increased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices, with a price range of 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and the spot prices have stopped being quoted [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory is decreasing, but the replenishment is active. The stocking is ending, and the demand is weakening [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures prices are expected to oscillate downward [7]. Hogs - **Market Performance**: Hog futures and spot prices are both weak [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The short - term slaughter volume has increased, but it is expected to decline after the Minor New Year. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures prices are expected to oscillate downward [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract continued to oscillate slightly. The spot price in North China is 6570 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply pressure has slowed down, and the import is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is weakening [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 increased by 0.5% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The trading is light, and the price is stable. The supply is large, and the demand is seasonally weakening. The social inventory is accumulating [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe due to balanced supply and weak demand [9]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX CFR China price is 917 US dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price in East China is 5180 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX and PTA is at a high level. The polyester factory load is decreasing, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view on PX and take appropriate profits on PTA [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 0.7% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The price is stable. The supply has decreased, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand is weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract continued to oscillate slightly. The spot price in East China is 6550 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the export window is open. The downstream demand is weakening due to the holiday [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the medium term [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price in East China is 3675 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, and the import is decreasing. The inventory is at a medium - high level, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider short - term long - positions as the inventory may start to decrease in March [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China is 7550 yuan/ton, and the trading is average [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure - benzene inventory is at a normal - high level, and the styrene inventory is at a normal - low level. The supply and demand are both weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate widely in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 remained unchanged [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price is at the bottom, and the supply is large. The inventory is accumulating, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe due to increased supply and weak demand [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC near - month contract's price declined due to the unchanged MSK WK10 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote and the loosening of the March price increase expectation. The market is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see. The 6 - 10 positive spread should be rolled for arbitrage [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 were 1,179.0, 1,273.0, 1,499.8, 1,576.3, 1,110.9, and 1,380.0 respectively. The price changes were - 59.0, 0, - 53.2, - 38.5, - 15.2, and - 45.5, with price change rates of - 4.77%, N/A, - 3.43%, - 2.38%, - 1.35%, and - 3.19%. The trading volumes were 29,560.0, 271.0, 4,155.0, 340.0, 1,093, and 38, with volume change rates of 105.51%, N/A, 88.35%, 26.39%, 77.72%, and 442.86%. The open interests were 33,899.0, 228.0, 14,740.0, 1,416.0, 8,071, and 127, with change rates of 8.89%, N/A, 0.10%, 0.14%, 2.26%, and - 7.97% [3] - **Month - spread Structure**: The spreads and their changes between different contracts are presented, such as EC04 - EC06 with a spread of - 321 and a change of - 5.8 [3] 2. Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: SCFIS European line index was 1657.94, with a week - on - week change of - 7.49% and a year - on - year change of - 29.54%. SCFIS US West line index was 1155.66, with a week - on - week change of 4.93% and a year - on - year change of - 48.57%. Other routes' freight rates and their changes are also provided [3] 3. Fuel Costs - **Crude Oil Prices**: The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract was $64.38 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of 1.74% and a year - on - year change of - 9.84%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month contract was $68.5 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of 1.57% and a year - on - year change of - 8.7% [3] 4. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Analysis**: MSK's WK10 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote remained unchanged, and the March price increase expectation was loose. The demand is entering a downward phase after reaching the peak, and the supply capacity deployment has little change compared with the previous period. The traditional off - season for freight rates is from February to April, and the expected rush of shipments is less than expected. The geopolitical situation is unstable, and it is difficult for large - scale resumption of European routes in the first half of the year [5][6] - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival. For arbitrage, a rolling operation of 6 - 10 positive spread is recommended [7][8] 5. Industry News - The US Maritime Administration advised US ships to stay away from Iranian waters. White House officials stated that US President Trump did not support Israel's annexation of the West Bank [10] 6. Related Attachments - There are multiple figures, including the SCFIS European line index and US West line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates of different routes [11][16][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a strong bullish pattern, with a tight balance between supply and demand. The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate, and the industrial silicon market is expected to be weak with oscillations [1][6][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price opened significantly higher and then oscillated. The main 2605 contract rose 3.07% to 137,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [1] - **Core Logic**: The demand side may see a surge in export orders due to the reduction of lithium battery export tax rebates, and the production schedule of the materials sector in March has a year - on - year growth rate generally greater than 50%. The supply side will see a record - high import volume in March in China corresponding to the large increase in Chile's lithium salt exports in January, but this is a temporary increase. The weekly production this week decreased by 825 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2,019 tons compared to last week. The tight balance between supply and demand remains unchanged [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a green line, red band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a weak green ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 148,100 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Based on the judgment of the lithium carbonate price's strong oscillation, one can lightly buy when the price drops to 130,000 yuan/ton. Pay close attention to market dynamics and set stop - loss points. For intraday trading, use the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" to find entry points [2] - **Concerns**: Whether there is regulatory upgrade, the resumption progress of Jiaxiawo, and the production schedule on the demand side [3] 3.2 Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures oscillated narrowly. The main 2605 contract rose 0.17% to 49,370 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [6] - **Core Logic**: The trading volume is light, lacking upward and downward drivers. It is expected to oscillate in the range of (48,000, 51,000). Affected by the shutdown of leading enterprises, the polysilicon production schedule in February 2026 was 79,500 tons, a 14.97% month - on - month decrease. The inventory increased slightly, and the market orders were limited. The current production is insufficient to cover short - term shipments, leading to an increase in inventory. The spot price weakened slightly, with the N - type re - feed material quoted at 48.2 - 59 yuan/kg [6][9] - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, blue band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a strong red ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 47,050 yuan/ton [9] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may continue to oscillate in the range of (48,000, 51,000). Pay attention to the latest quotes of silicon material enterprises to downstream and whether trading restrictions can be gradually lifted [9] 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated. The 2605 contract fell 0.59% to 8,450 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [15] - **Core Logic**: In the past three days, the industrial silicon has continuously increased positions and declined significantly, and the spot price has also declined. On the supply side, large factories in the northwest region have shut down, and the operation in the southwest region has remained at a low level, resulting in a tightened supply. As of February 5, the number of operating furnaces of metallic silicon in China was 178, with an overall operating rate of 22.36%, a decrease of 32 compared to last week. On the demand side, approaching the Spring Festival, most downstream silicon enterprises are on holiday, and the procurement willingness is low except for rigid - demand procurement. The polysilicon production schedule in February was 79,500 tons, a 14.97% month - on - month decrease. The operating rates of the organic silicon and aluminum alloy markets remained stable, and the overall downstream demand is expected to further narrow. The total inventory of industrial silicon is at a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,400 yuan/ton [15] - **Technical Analysis**: The industrial silicon has continued to increase positions significantly. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, green band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a weak green ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 8,850 yuan/ton [15] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. If it breaks through 8,400 yuan/ton downward, it may turn to a weak operation. For intraday trading, one can refer to the Band Winner indicator in combination with the 8:30 morning live broadcast [15]