2026 年 02 月 27 日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 供需趋于宽松下的豆类看空策略 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com 本报告基于全球豆类供需宽松、国内供强需弱的基本面制定交易策略。 全球层面，美豆阶段性强势由政策采购预期和资金推动，但基金净多仓接近高位、新季种植面积增 加，强势难持续；巴西大豆收割提速，产量预计 1.8 亿吨，南美成供应主力，阿根廷产量预计 4850 万吨小 幅下降。国内方面，大豆港口库存处于同期中高位水平，巴西、美国大豆集中发运，4 月中旬后供应压力加 码；生猪养殖利润恶化，去产能压制猪料消费，需求趋于疲软。中美政策预期下的美豆采购为短期扰动， 国内储备拍卖或进一步施压；进口成本形成支撑，豆粕 2700-2720 元/吨左右支撑强，难深跌。 核心策略为逢高做空 M2605 等合约，进场 2830-2870 元/吨左右，止损 2930 元/吨左右，止盈分 2750、2700 元/吨左右，仓位控制在 20%-30%；辅助策略为卖出 M2605-C-2850 看涨期权。同时需警惕中 美政策、南美天气、油厂降负、生猪需求复苏四大风险并做好应对。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Metals - The precious metals market is gradually stabilizing. It is recommended to go long on gold again, and the long - term outlook remains positive. For silver, the spot market is still tight, but the price fluctuations on the futures market are increasing, so cautious participation is advised [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival. Aluminum is expected to maintain a short - term price oscillation. Alumina has upward potential due to marginal supply contraction. Industrial silicon is likely to oscillate between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices can be considered if the large - scale production cuts are short - lived. Lithium carbonate is expected to have an upward - biased price trend. Polysilicon is expected to weakly oscillate between 45000 - 53000 yuan/ton. Tin also requires waiting for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [1][3][4]. Black Industry - For rebar, iron ore, and coking coal, the recommended strategy is mainly to wait and see, while aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions [5]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal, focus on China's purchases of US soybeans and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market, with a unilateral oscillation in search of a bottom and an inverse spread structure. Corn futures are expected to oscillate upward. For oils and fats, the market has entered an oscillation phase, with an inverse spread strategy. For cotton, it is advisable to buy at low prices. Egg, and hog futures are expected to oscillate downward [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and is recommended to be bought at low prices in the medium term. PVC is recommended to be observed. For PX, the mid - term long - position view remains unchanged, and for PTA, appropriate profit - taking is advised. Glass suggests a strategy of buying glass and selling soda ash. PP is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the medium term. MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices for short - term opportunities. Styrene is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term. Soda ash is recommended to be observed [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metals opened higher, oscillated, and slightly climbed in the night session yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, and there were downward revisions in previous data. Market expectations for interest - rate cuts have been postponed. The US budget deficit has shrunk, but future deficit expectations are rising. There are changes in gold and silver inventories and ETF holdings [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The precious metals market is stabilizing. Go long on gold and be cautious with silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices rose and then declined yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The stronger - than - expected non - farm data led to a stronger US dollar and weaker metals. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the domestic demand for replenishment has ended [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [3]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.62% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants are operating at high loads, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate has slightly increased [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to uncertainties in the macro - environment and a supply - demand balance, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.25% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants are in the production - reduction and overhaul phase, while electrolytic aluminum plants are operating at high loads [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the subsequent overhaul and shutdown situations as there is upward potential in the price [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased last week, mainly in Xinjiang. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, and the aluminum alloy operating rate is stable [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is in a supply - demand balance. Observe the resumption of production by large enterprises after the Spring Festival. Consider short - selling at high prices if the production cuts are short - lived [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 9.41% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Some lithium salt plants are under maintenance. Production and demand in the lithium - related industries are expected to decline. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in Q1, and the number of inventory days has increased [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market has an upward - biased expectation for the material production in March. The price is expected to oscillate upward [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract increased by 230 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production is stable, and the inventory is unchanged. The production of silicon wafers is stable, while that of battery cells and components is expected to decline. The photovoltaic export policy provides some support [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to weakly oscillate between 45000 - 53000 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices continued to oscillate upward [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the downstream replenishment has ended [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory has increased. The building material demand is weak, but the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The plate demand is stable, and the inventory change is at a historical high. Steel mills are in a loss, and the production increase is limited [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased. The iron ore supply - demand is neutral. The iron - water production has slightly increased. The furnace - charge replenishment is almost complete, and the inventory days are above the historical average. There is a structural contradiction in the port inventory [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract decreased by 7.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - water production has increased. Steel mills are in a loss, and the blast - furnace production may decline. The first round of price increases has been implemented, and there are no further plans. The overall inventory is at a medium level, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The USDA report increased the Brazilian soybean production, and the global supply is becoming more abundant. The US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is increasing [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US soybeans are strong. Focus on China's purchases and South American production. The domestic market is weaker, with a unilateral oscillation in search of a bottom and an inverse spread structure [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are rising, while the spot prices in the Northeast are slightly falling and those in the North China are slightly rising [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not high. The selling sentiment in the Northeast has increased, and the downstream is gradually stopping purchases [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures prices are expected to oscillate upward due to policy support [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market is weak in the short term [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 14% month - on - month in January, and the export increased by 11%. The inventory decreased by 7.7% to 2.82 million tons [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market has entered an oscillation phase, with an inverse spread strategy. Pay attention to future production and bio - diesel policies [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The overnight ICE US cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the international crude oil prices continued to rise [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The global cotton production in 25/26 is expected to increase. The Indian cotton production remains unchanged. The domestic cotton prices are rising, and the textile enterprises' inventory has increased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices, with a price range of 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and the spot prices have stopped being quoted [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory is decreasing, but the replenishment is active. The stocking is ending, and the demand is weakening [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures prices are expected to oscillate downward [7]. Hogs - **Market Performance**: Hog futures and spot prices are both weak [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The short - term slaughter volume has increased, but it is expected to decline after the Minor New Year. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures prices are expected to oscillate downward [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract continued to oscillate slightly. The spot price in North China is 6570 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply pressure has slowed down, and the import is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is weakening [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 increased by 0.5% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The trading is light, and the price is stable. The supply is large, and the demand is seasonally weakening. The social inventory is accumulating [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe due to balanced supply and weak demand [9]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX CFR China price is 917 US dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price in East China is 5180 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX and PTA is at a high level. The polyester factory load is decreasing, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view on PX and take appropriate profits on PTA [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 0.7% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The price is stable. The supply has decreased, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand is weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract continued to oscillate slightly. The spot price in East China is 6550 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the export window is open. The downstream demand is weakening due to the holiday [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the medium term [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price in East China is 3675 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, and the import is decreasing. The inventory is at a medium - high level, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider short - term long - positions as the inventory may start to decrease in March [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China is 7550 yuan/ton, and the trading is average [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure - benzene inventory is at a normal - high level, and the styrene inventory is at a normal - low level. The supply and demand are both weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate widely in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 remained unchanged [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price is at the bottom, and the supply is large. The inventory is accumulating, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe due to increased supply and weak demand [10].

研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2026 年 2 月 10 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2604 | 1,179.0 | -59.0 | -4.77% | 29,560.0 | 105.51% | 33,899.0 | 8.89% | | EC2605 | 1,273.0 | 1,273.0 | / | 271.0 | / | 228.0 | / | | EC2606 | 1,499.8 | -53.2 | -3.43% | 4,155.0 | 88.35% | 14,740.0 | 0.10% | | EC2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a strong bullish pattern, with a tight balance between supply and demand. The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate, and the industrial silicon market is expected to be weak with oscillations [1][6][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price opened significantly higher and then oscillated. The main 2605 contract rose 3.07% to 137,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [1] - **Core Logic**: The demand side may see a surge in export orders due to the reduction of lithium battery export tax rebates, and the production schedule of the materials sector in March has a year - on - year growth rate generally greater than 50%. The supply side will see a record - high import volume in March in China corresponding to the large increase in Chile's lithium salt exports in January, but this is a temporary increase. The weekly production this week decreased by 825 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2,019 tons compared to last week. The tight balance between supply and demand remains unchanged [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a green line, red band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a weak green ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 148,100 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Based on the judgment of the lithium carbonate price's strong oscillation, one can lightly buy when the price drops to 130,000 yuan/ton. Pay close attention to market dynamics and set stop - loss points. For intraday trading, use the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" to find entry points [2] - **Concerns**: Whether there is regulatory upgrade, the resumption progress of Jiaxiawo, and the production schedule on the demand side [3] 3.2 Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures oscillated narrowly. The main 2605 contract rose 0.17% to 49,370 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [6] - **Core Logic**: The trading volume is light, lacking upward and downward drivers. It is expected to oscillate in the range of (48,000, 51,000). Affected by the shutdown of leading enterprises, the polysilicon production schedule in February 2026 was 79,500 tons, a 14.97% month - on - month decrease. The inventory increased slightly, and the market orders were limited. The current production is insufficient to cover short - term shipments, leading to an increase in inventory. The spot price weakened slightly, with the N - type re - feed material quoted at 48.2 - 59 yuan/kg [6][9] - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, blue band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a strong red ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 47,050 yuan/ton [9] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may continue to oscillate in the range of (48,000, 51,000). Pay attention to the latest quotes of silicon material enterprises to downstream and whether trading restrictions can be gradually lifted [9] 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated. The 2605 contract fell 0.59% to 8,450 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [15] - **Core Logic**: In the past three days, the industrial silicon has continuously increased positions and declined significantly, and the spot price has also declined. On the supply side, large factories in the northwest region have shut down, and the operation in the southwest region has remained at a low level, resulting in a tightened supply. As of February 5, the number of operating furnaces of metallic silicon in China was 178, with an overall operating rate of 22.36%, a decrease of 32 compared to last week. On the demand side, approaching the Spring Festival, most downstream silicon enterprises are on holiday, and the procurement willingness is low except for rigid - demand procurement. The polysilicon production schedule in February was 79,500 tons, a 14.97% month - on - month decrease. The operating rates of the organic silicon and aluminum alloy markets remained stable, and the overall downstream demand is expected to further narrow. The total inventory of industrial silicon is at a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,400 yuan/ton [15] - **Technical Analysis**: The industrial silicon has continued to increase positions significantly. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, green band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a weak green ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 8,850 yuan/ton [15] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. If it breaks through 8,400 yuan/ton downward, it may turn to a weak operation. For intraday trading, one can refer to the Band Winner indicator in combination with the 8:30 morning live broadcast [15]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market's supply - demand imbalance has worsened, with increased port inventories and weak demand. Pulp valuation is in a weak downward trend, and prices may continue to seek support downward in the short term [4]. - The supply - demand of double - offset paper remains in a weak balance. Its valuation has stabilized at a low level. In the short term, it's hard to improve, and in the long term, it depends on post - holiday demand recovery and capacity clearance [4]. - Suggested trading strategies: for single - sided trading, adopt a short - selling approach for SP2505 and a bearish operation for OP2502; for arbitrage, mainly wait and watch, and pay attention to 4SP - OP arbitrage; for options, wait and watch for SP options, and sell OP2602 - C - 4300 for OP options [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: No specific content provided - **Trading Strategies**: - Single - sided: Adopt a short - selling approach for SP2505 and a bearish operation for OP2502 [4]. - Arbitrage: Mainly wait and watch, and pay attention to 4SP - OP arbitrage [4]. - Options: Wait and watch for SP options, and sell OP2602 - C - 4300 for OP options [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Pulp**: - Supply: The production of domestic broad - leaf pulp decreased by 0.3 tons to 24.9 tons, while chemimechanical pulp increased slightly by 0.1 tons. Port inventories increased to 2.068 million tons and have been rising for three consecutive weeks [4]. - Demand: Pre - holiday stocking is basically over. Domestic consumption decreased by 2.9 tons. The demand for white cardboard and double - offset paper declined, and overall demand support is insufficient [4]. - Valuation: It shows a weak downward trend, pressured by continuous inventory accumulation at ports and weak demand [4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: - Supply: The production was 196,000 tons, a 3.4% decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 50.2%, a 1.8% decrease. Although there were planned maintenance, the market supply was still abundant [4][8]. - Demand: Textbook printing has ended, social orders have not improved, and users mainly consumed inventories. The shipment volume decreased by 3.0%, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly by 0.4% [4][12]. - Valuation: It has stabilized at a low level, and the profit pressure has slightly eased. In the short term, it's hard to improve, and in the long term, it depends on post - holiday demand recovery and capacity clearance [4]. - **Copper - plate Paper**: - Supply: The production was 84,000 tons, a 1.2% increase. The capacity utilization rate was 62.0%, a 0.4% increase. The overall production change was small [16]. - Demand: Downstream consumption was weak, and there was no obvious inventory - building intention [20]. - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory was 383,000 tons, a 1.6% increase, and it may continue to increase slightly in the next period [20]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Double - offset Paper**: - Supply: Production decreased by 7,000 tons to 196,000 tons, a 3.4% decrease. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.8% to 50.2%. The weekly average profit was - 468.0 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin increased by 1.3 percentage points [8]. - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory was 1.407 million tons, a 0.4% increase. It's expected to remain high in the next period [12]. - Price: The enterprise - level average price of 70g double - offset paper was 4,642.9 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [39]. - **Copper - plate Paper**: - Supply: Production increased by 1,000 tons to 84,000 tons, a 1.2% increase. The capacity utilization rate increased by 0.4% to 62.0%. The weekly average profit was - 5.5 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin increased by 1.1 percentage points [16]. - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory was 383,000 tons, a 1.6% increase. It may continue to increase slightly in the next period [20]. - Price: The enterprise - level average price of 157g copper - plate paper was 4,975.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [39]. - **Domestic Pulp**: - Supply: The production of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 300 tons to 24,900 tons, and the production of chemimechanical pulp increased by 100 tons to 23,800 tons [23]. - Profit: The production profit of domestic broad - leaf pulp remained stable, and the overall profit was better than that of chemimechanical pulp [23]. - **Wood Pulp**: - Supply: The market price of domestic chemimechanical pulp remained at 2,575 yuan/ton. The port inventory was 2.068 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous period, and has been rising for three consecutive weeks [27]. - **Pulp Demand - Tissue Paper**: - Supply: The production was 293,500 tons, a 0.17% increase. The capacity utilization rate was 68.96%, a 0.9 - percentage - point increase [31]. - Inventory: The inventory was 629,500 tons, a 0.22% decrease. The inventory days were 20.51 days, a 0.19% decrease [31]. - **Pulp Demand - White Cardboard**: - Inventory: The production factory inventory was 1.07 million tons, a 0.47% decrease. Production and inventory are expected to continue to decline in the next period [35]. - **Prices**: - Double - offset and Copper - plate Paper: The prices of 70g double - offset paper and 157g copper - plate paper remained unchanged from the previous period [39]. - Various Pulps: The average spot -含税 price of imported softwood pulp decreased by 2.8% to 5,388 yuan/ton; the average spot -含税 price of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 1.2% to 4,671 yuan/ton; the average spot -含税 price of chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 3,800 yuan/ton; the average spot -含税 price of unbleached pulp decreased by 0.6% to 5,000 yuan/ton [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, industrial silicon, carbonates, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting a cautious and diversified approach to investment in the commodity futures market [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Domestic precious metals opened higher and then dived last night. Shanghai gold closed down, while Shanghai silver closed up [1] - **Fundamentals**: The US service PMI was strong, while ADP employment was weak. The US Treasury maintained the bond issuance scale and did not increase the issuance of medium - and long - term bonds in the next few quarters. The US resumed the Iran - US negotiation. Domestic gold ETFs had an inflow of 1.2 tons, and there were changes in inventories of various gold and silver products [1] - **Trading Strategy**: For gold, reduce long positions and wait and see in the short term, while still being optimistic in the long term. For silver, the spot market remains tight, but the market is volatile and sentiment is fragile, so it is advisable to participate with caution [1] Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly yesterday [2] - **Fundamentals**: After the shocks on Friday and Monday, risk appetite needs time to recover. The Sino - US leaders' call at night partially repaired risk appetite. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and China called for restricting investment in smelting projects. The spot of flat - water copper in East and South China was traded at a discount of about 150 yuan, and the refined - scrap price difference fluctuated around 3000 yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the price to stabilize and then buy [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.61% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 23955 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The US is expected to launch a key mineral reserve plan, and the market risk appetite has recovered. The LME aluminum price stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that the electrolytic aluminum price will fluctuate strongly [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 0.53% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2824 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and rotation - maintenance stage, while aluminum smelters maintained high - load production [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price shows signs of stopping falling, and with the increasing number of industry maintenance and production cuts, the marginal change in the supply side becomes the core factor leading the market. It is expected that the alumina price will maintain a weakly strong trend in the short term. Follow up on the maintenance and production - cut situation of alumina plants [2] Industrial Metals and Chemicals Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract opened flat in the morning on Wednesday, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed at 8850 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3] - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Xinjiang. The polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution. The polysilicon output in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons, and the weekly output of the organic silicon industry continues to decrease slightly. The aluminum alloy operating rate stabilizes at around 60% [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. The market focuses on the production - cut situation and duration of large factories this week. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8400 - 9200 yuan. If the production - cut duration of large factories is limited, consider shorting at high prices with light positions [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 147,220 yuan/ton (- 880), with a closing price decrease of 0.59% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) remained unchanged. Some lithium salt plants carried out maintenance, and the weekly output decreased. The output of lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials in January decreased, and the production in February is expected to continue to decline. The inventory is expected to be in a tight - balance state in January, and the total inventory days increased. The warehouse receipts in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The current price reflects high demand expectations. The industrial end expects the material - end production in March to be weaker than that in January. The core is the game between high raw material prices and high - growth demand. It is expected to fluctuate highly in the short term [3] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract opened flat in the morning on Wednesday, fluctuated and rose throughout the day, and closed at 51195 yuan/ton, an increase of 1195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3] - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output decreased by 6%, and the industry inventory increased by 4% this week. The warehouse receipts increased significantly this week. The silicon wafer production in February remained stable, while the component production decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The total photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025 is expected to exceed 300GW, exceeding market expectations. The component export in December increased by 10% year - on - year, and the cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax - refund policy on the 9th supports component exports during the window period [3] - **Trading Strategy**: There are rumors that the industry association is re - calculating production costs. In the short term, focus on the spot transaction price range. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly between 45000 - 53000 yuan [3] Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated weakly yesterday [3] - **Fundamentals**: Market risk appetite needs time to recover, and the Sino - US leaders' call helped repair market sentiment. US technology stocks declined significantly, and the AI narrative may be shaken. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and there was a landslide in an Indonesian tin mine. The domestic deliverable brand had a premium of about 800 yuan, and the London structure had an 850 - dollar contango. The domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 377 tons [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the price to stabilize and then buy [3] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3105 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading - day night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The building - material apparent demand decreased by 610,000 tons to 3.38 million tons week - on - week, and the production decreased by 330,000 tons to 3.97 million tons. The building - material demand expectation is weak, but the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The plate demand is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high. The inventory level is still high, but the marginal change in inventory is the strongest in the same period in history. Steel mills continue to lose money, and the production increase space is limited. The steel spot is relatively weak, and the futures valuation is neutral. It is expected that the steel futures and spot markets will fluctuate widely in the short term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3090 - 3150 yuan [4] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 773.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading - day night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The Australia - Brazil shipment volume increased by 1.27 million tons to 25.21 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 2.49 million tons year - on - year. The arrival volume increased by 440,000 tons to 26.69 million tons week - on - week, and increased by 8.17 million tons year - on - year. The iron - ore supply and demand are neutral. The molten - iron production decreased by 100 tons to 2.28 million tons week - on - week, and increased by 10,400 tons year - on - year. The first - round price increase has been implemented, and there are no further price - increase plans. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast - furnace production may decrease slightly. The supply is in line with seasonal rules and slightly increases year - on - year. The furnace - charge replenishment is nearly over, and the inventory days continue to rise to near the historical average level. The proportion of mainstream iron - ore inventory in ports is extremely low, and the structural contradiction persists. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is slightly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is neutral. It is expected that the iron - ore futures and spot markets will fluctuate widely in the short term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 760 - 790 yuan [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1187.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading - day night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The molten - iron production decreased by 100 tons to 2.28 million tons week - on - week, and increased by 10,400 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast - furnace production may decrease slightly. The first - round price increase has been implemented, and there are no further price - increase plans. The inventory at different supply - chain links is differentiated, with high inventory at ports and mine mouths and low inventory at other links. The overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 - contract futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained. The coking - coal supply and demand are weak [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1160 - 1210 yuan [4] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybeans rose sharply overnight, driven by the expectation of China purchasing US soybeans after the Sino - US leaders' call [5] - **Fundamentals**: In the supply side, the near - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply from South America is expected to be large. Brazil has entered the early - harvest stage, and private institutions expect an increase in production, while Argentina may face dry weather. In the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports meet expectations. Overall, the global supply - demand situation is expected to be loose [5] - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to China's purchase of US soybeans and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market, showing a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets due to the increase in US soybean prices and the decrease in South American price discounts [5] Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and most corn spot prices fell [5] - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has passed half, and the grain - selling pressure is not large. However, at the end of the year, the grain - selling mentality in the Northeast production area has loosened, and the enthusiasm for selling grain has increased. The inventories of north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years, but the enthusiasm for building inventories at the current price is not high. Southern imported grains are cost - effective, and enterprises tend to import for supplementation. In the short term, the enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast is high, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate and fall, and the futures price is expected to follow the decline. Pay attention to weather and policy changes [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: The enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast production area has increased, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm - oil market rose yesterday [6] - **Fundamentals**: In the supply side, MPOA estimates that the Malaysian production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14% month - on - month, in the seasonal production - reduction period. In the demand side, exports improved month - on - month, and high - frequency ITS data shows that Malaysian exports increased by 18% month - on - month in January. Overall, the near - term inventory - reduction logic holds [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are strong in the short term. Trade based on seasonal production reduction and biodiesel expectations. In the medium term, pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [6] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures prices fluctuated and fell overnight, while international crude - oil futures prices continued to rise. The Zhengzhou cotton futures prices entered a shock - adjustment phase, but the long - term upward trend remains valid [6] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, as of the week ending January 31, the cumulative listed volume of cotton in Pakistan in the 2025/2026 season was 859,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In December, Argentina exported 10,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.1% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Domestically, according to the BCO announcement, some enterprises in Xinjiang maintained stable production and sales, and overall orders were relatively sufficient [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices. The price range is 14500 - 15000 yuan/ton [6] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and egg spot prices fell more sharply [6] - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply and demand, the number of laying hens in production decreased. The previous increase in egg prices led to improved profits, and the enthusiasm for replenishing the flock increased, and the price of chicks rose rapidly, slowing down the capacity reduction. The stocking is coming to an end, the risk - control sentiment in the trading end has increased, the inventory has increased significantly, the egg price has fallen rapidly, the demand has weakened, and the egg price is expected to fall seasonally, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The demand has weakened, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Most pig futures prices rebounded, while pig spot prices continued to fall [6] - **Fundamentals**: As the Spring Festival approaches, with the start of Spring - Festival stocking, the slaughter volume is expected to increase rapidly in the next week. However, the average daily slaughter pressure this month is large, and the slaughter progress is slow. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, and the pig price is expected to be weak [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to fluctuate slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6700 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis was 180 yuan lower than the futures price. The basis was weak, and the market transaction was average. Overseas, the US - dollar price remained stable, and the import window was closed [7] - **Fundamentals**: In the supply side, new plants were put into operation earlier, and some plants reduced their loads or stopped production, so the domestic supply pressure slowed down. The import window remained closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly later. Overall, the domestic supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace. In the demand side, the current downstream agricultural - film season is off - peak, and the demand has weakened month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remains stable [7] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the industrial - chain inventory is slightly reduced, the basis is weak, and the supply - demand situation before the Spring Festival is weak. Pay attention to geopolitical situations. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the upside space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the medium term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of the year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to buy at low prices [7][8] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5130 yuan, an increase of 0.4% [8] - **Fundamentals**: The PVC atmosphere was boosted, and the price rose. The supply was large, with the January output expected to be 2.148 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. The expected operating rate in the fourth quarter is 78 - 80%. The downstream factory operating rate dropped to about 36%. The real - estate market weakened in December, and the new construction and completion decreased by 25% year - on - year. The social inventory accumulated at a high level, and the PVC social inventory on January 30 was 1.2064 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.45

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is weak, affecting the prices of soft commodities and fresh - fruit products. Each variety has its own supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends and trading strategies [2][7][9]. - For soft commodities, sugar supply is abundant, paper pulp supply is not tight but demand is in the off - season, and double - offset paper has cost support weakening and demand in the off - season [2][5][6]. - For fresh - fruit products, the supply of apples has support, and the supply of jujubes is moving towards a situation of both supply and demand being strong [9][10]. 3. Summary of Each Section Based on the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Supply - side support exists, but the overall commodity sentiment is weak recently, and the short - term may show a volatile and repeated trend | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 [19] | | Jujube 2605 | Short - term buy on dips | The expectation of production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to peak and decline | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 [19] | | Sugar 2605 | Hold short positions | International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar supply is in the peak season, with overall sufficient supply | 5070 - 5100 | 5300 - 5350 [19] | | Pulp 2605 | Lightly allocate long positions | Downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and pulp itself lacks new supply - side positive news recently, so the price is under pressure, but the US dollar quotation is stable, and the increase in warehouse receipt cost may support the short - term price | 5200 - 5300 | 5450 - 5500 [19] | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the disk price further declines and drives the basis to widen | 4000 - 4100 | 4250 - 4300 [19] | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The long - term positive expectation still exists, and the medium - term support remains unchanged. However, the external price is in a bottom - seeking trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. Recently, the overall commodity sentiment is weak, and the short - term price may fluctuate repeatedly | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 [19] | Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 29, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas of China was 601,010 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 313,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 610,000 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in the Shandong production area is stable, and the packaging volume of merchants in the cold storage is okay. The price of bagged Fuji in the Shaanxi production area is also stable, and the packaging volume in the cold storage has increased significantly. In the sales area, the market arrival volume is increasing, and the sales of gift - boxed products are okay [20][21][22]. Jujube Market As of January 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 13,143 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 925 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.99%. The pre - Spring Festival is the traditional consumption peak season for jujubes, but the current sales speed is slower than that of last year, and the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end [23]. Sugar Market As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 19.503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.35%. Stonex estimated that Brazil's sugar production in the central and southern regions in the 2026/27 crushing season would be 40.7 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous estimate. As of the week of January 27, the net short position of speculative positions in ICE raw sugar futures + options decreased by 21,040 hands compared with the previous week. India's domestic sugar sales quota in February 2026 was 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [26]. Pulp Market Affected by the decline in futures prices and the weakening demand for key resale varieties, the Chinese pulp market continued to be weak. The price of resold BSK decreased, and the spot quotation of imported NBSK also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [28]. Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. Cotton Market As of January 27, the non - commercial net long position of futures + options in the ICE cotton futures market decreased by 13,592 contracts compared with the previous week [30]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9380 | - 138 | - 1.45% [31] | | Jujube 2605 | 8820 | - 130 | - 1.45% [31] | | Sugar 2605 | 5207 | - 41 | - 0.78% [31] | | Pulp 2605 | 5266 | - 34 | - 0.64% [31] | | Cotton 2605 | 14575 | - 95 | - 0.65% [31] | Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 [36] | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 [36] | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 0 | - 580 [36] | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5375 | - 25 | - 1225 [36] | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 [36] | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16070 | - 113 | 1344 [36] | Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1271 | 55 | 1781 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips [57] | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 225 | - 10 | 155 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see [57] | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 15 | 1 | - 148 | Oscillate | Wait and see [57] | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 110 | 30 | 40 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs [57] | Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 [89] | | Jujube | 3317 | 0 | - 699 [89] | | Sugar | 14069 | - 50 | - 10059 [89] | | Pulp | 142447 | 0 | - 196281 [89] | | Cotton | 10325 | 36 | 3612 [89] | Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views - For the corn market, in the short - term, downstream enterprises' inventory - building pace slows down, and there is an expected wave of concentrated grain sales by farmers before the Spring Festival. In the medium - term, there is still inventory - building demand after the Spring Festival, and a wide - range trading strategy is maintained. In the long - term, the pricing logic is based on substitution and planting costs, with a focus on policy guidance [3]. - For the pig market, in the short - term, southern pig prices have dropped significantly, and there is a price inversion between the north and the south. In the medium - term, there is an expected increase in pig supply before March, and a supply pressure relief from April. In the long - term, there is still supply pressure before August, but the decline in the inventory of breeding sows at the end of 2025 was less than expected, leading to a downward shift in the expectations of far - month contracts [5]. - For the egg market, in the short - term, egg prices are slightly stronger, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in February may cause prices to fall again. In the medium - term, the supply pressure has not been fully released, and the upward momentum of spot prices is insufficient. In the long - term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale may limit the upward space of prices, and waiting for the process of capacity reduction driven by over - culling of hens [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Market Review**: The corn futures fluctuated and consolidated in the night session yesterday. The main 2603 contract fell 0.39% and closed at 2270 yuan/ton [3]. - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise quotes in the Northeast were stable at 2199 yuan/ton, and in North China, the average purchase price rose 2 yuan/ton to 2284 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port dropped 10 yuan/ton to 2290 - 2300 yuan/ton, and the transaction price at Shekou Port dropped 10 yuan/ton to 2410 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The number of corn futures warehouse receipts increased by 2299 to 54345. The grain - selling progress in the Northeast was 62% and in North China was 53% [3]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: focus on farmers' grain - selling progress; Medium - term: maintain a wide - range trading strategy and focus on the pace and intensity of policy - grain auctions; Long - term: follow the substitution and planting - cost pricing logic and focus on policy guidance [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a wide - range trading strategy in the medium - term. For the 2603 contract, the pressure is at 2295 - 2310, the first support is at 2270, and the second support is at 2250 - 2260. For the 2605 contract, the pressure is at 2290 - 2300, and the support is at 2260 - 2270 [3]. Pig - **Market Review**: The pig futures continued to be weak yesterday. The main 2603 contract fell 0.88% and closed at 11270 yuan/ton [3]. - **Important Information**: The national average pig price was 12.57 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from the previous day. The inventory of breeding sows at the end of December was 39.61 million, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease, 101.6% of the normal level. The number of new - born piglets from January to September 2025 increased, and the number of piglet births in October and November 2025 decreased. The average slaughter weight of pigs increased to 124.66 kg. The fat - to - standard price difference was 0.41 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The number of pig futures warehouse receipts was 426, unchanged from the previous day [3][5]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: pay attention to downstream stocking sentiment in the middle of the twelfth lunar month; Medium - term: there is an expected increase in pig supply before March, and a supply pressure relief from April, focus on the impact of diseases; Long - term: there is still supply pressure before August, and the expectations of far - month contracts have shifted downward [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the 2603 contract, the support is at 11000 - 11200, and the pressure is at 11500. For the 2605 contract, the support is at 11500 - 11600, and the pressure is at 11900. For the 2607 contract, the support is at 12200 - 12300, and the pressure is at 12500. For the 2609 contract, the support is at 13100 - 13200, and the pressure is at 13400 - 13500 [5]. Egg - **Market Review**: The egg futures showed mixed trends yesterday. The main 2603 contract fell 0.59% and closed at 3048 yuan/500KG [5]. - **Important Information**: The average egg price in the main production areas rose 0.04 yuan/jin to 3.96 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas, it rose 0.06 yuan/jin to 4.23 yuan/jin. The inventory in the production process decreased by 0.01 days to 1 day, and the inventory in the circulation process remained at 1.07 days. The average price of old laying hens rose 0.05 yuan/jin to 4.62 yuan/jin. The estimated number of laying hens in January is 1.334 billion [5]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: egg prices are slightly stronger, but may fall in February. Medium - term: supply pressure has not been fully released, and the upward momentum of spot prices is insufficient. Long - term: the expansion of the egg - laying hen farming scale may limit price increases, and wait for the capacity - reduction process driven by over - culling [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts after the spot price stops rising and the inventory accumulates. For the 2603 contract, the short - term pressure is at 3100, and it needs to effectively break below 3030 to open further downward space. Do not be overly optimistic about egg prices in the second half of the year before over - culling occurs [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive trading performance of "Automatic ATM," a participant in the 2019 National Futures Daily Real Trading Competition, who achieved an annual profit of 10 million yuan through a technical analysis-based trading strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Trading Performance - From October 2019 to February 2020, an investment of 1.6 million yuan yielded a profit of 16 million yuan [3]. - From February 2020 to February 2021, an investment of 4.47 million yuan generated a profit of 19.53 million yuan [3]. - In a single month from September 8 to October 8, 2021, the return reached 1200% [3]. - From November 2021 to March 2022, an investment of 620,000 yuan resulted in a profit of 31.48 million yuan [3]. - From September to mid-December 2022, an investment of 2 million yuan yielded a profit of 17.8 million yuan [3]. - In 2023, various trading periods showed significant profits, including an investment of 260,000 yuan yielding 4.99 million yuan and another of 301,000 yuan yielding 582,000 yuan [4]. Group 2: Trading Strategies and Insights - The article discusses the harsh reality of the futures market, where only about 3% of traders can sustain a living through trading, primarily due to human psychological weaknesses [11]. - Key strategies for successful trading include strict capital management, where funds are divided into portions to limit exposure, and the importance of preserving capital to allow for recovery opportunities [12]. - The necessity of implementing stop-loss and take-profit strategies is emphasized, with a focus on maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio to avoid significant losses [13]. - Developing good trading habits is crucial, as consistent adherence to strategies can lead to recovery from losses and ultimately higher returns [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each commodity has unique market conditions and corresponding trading suggestions based on supply, demand, and price trends [1][3][4]. Summary by Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market price oscillated around 100,000 yuan. Supply of copper ore remained tight, and London's continuous inventory delivery pressured prices. Suggest waiting for stabilization before buying [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.41% compared to the previous trading day. Supply increased slightly, and demand showed a slight rise. The price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory adjustment [1]. - **Alumina**: The main contract price increased by 1.68%. Supply capacity remained stable, and demand was high. The price showed a technical rebound, but follow - up attention should be paid to the movement of main funds [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price increased by 0.51%. Supply decreased, and demand in the polysilicon and organic silicon industries was expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan, and short positions can be considered at high prices [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract increased by 1.2%. Supply decreased, and demand in the downstream industries was expected to decline. Due to supply - side concerns and demand - side export - rush expectations, the price is expected to be more likely to rise [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price increased by 1.64%. Supply decreased, and demand was expected to be stable in the off - season. The main contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [2]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated strongly. Supply of tin ore was tight, but production in Myanmar was accelerating. It is recommended to buy at low prices [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract price increased by 7 yuan. Supply - demand was neutral to weak, and structural differentiation was significant. It is recommended to hold short positions or take profits, and new orders should mainly be on the sidelines [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price increased by 2 yuan. Supply - demand was relatively balanced. It is recommended to mainly wait and see [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price increased by 13 yuan. Supply - demand was weak. It is recommended to hold short positions or take profits [3][4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price changed little. Supply was expected to be loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure [4]. - **Corn**: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price showed a mixed trend. Supply - demand contradiction was not large, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [4]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market was strong. Supply was in a weak seasonal decline, and demand improved. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the medium - term focus should be on production and biodiesel policies [4]. - **Sugar**: The main contract price increased by 0.62%. The international and domestic sugar markets were under pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton price fell, and the domestic price rose. It is recommended to buy at low prices within the range of 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Eggs**: The futures price rebounded, and the spot price rose. The egg price is expected to seasonally decline, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Hogs**: The futures price rebounded, and the spot price showed a mixed trend. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [5]. - **Apples**: The main contract price increased by 0.75%. The overall situation was low - yield, low - inventory, and poor - quality. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price rose slightly. Supply pressure increased but slowed, and demand was weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, and in the medium - term, it is recommended to buy at low prices [6]. - **PVC**: The main contract price increased by 1.6%. Supply was high, demand was weak, and inventory accumulated. It is recommended to short 05 and long 09 in a reverse spread [6][7]. - **Methanol**: The price oscillated and adjusted. Supply was high, and inventory was expected to remain high. It is expected to oscillate in the near future [7]. - **Glass**: The main contract price increased by 0.3%. Supply decreased, demand was weak, and inventory accumulated. It is recommended to wait and see or buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. - **PP**: The main contract price rose slightly. Supply pressure increased, and demand was stable. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices [7]. - **Crude Oil**: The price declined. Supply was excessive, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices after geopolitical risks create high points [7][8]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price continued to rise. Supply - demand showed a marginal improvement, but the overall contradiction was still large. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the second quarter, it is recommended to buy at low prices [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract price increased by 0.5%. Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high. It is recommended to wait and see or buy glass and sell soda ash [8].