工业硅期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 2025.11.24-11.28 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于大区间运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至11月21日新疆地区421#价格9200元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面， 主力显示出较强的偏多情绪。 预计工业硅2601合约运行区间在7500—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 本周策略建议 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日， ...

2025.11.17-11.21 工业硅期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 01 P A R T 上周策略回顾 工业硅大区间运行，以逢低做多为主。 本周策略建议 工业硅期货目前处于大区间运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至11月14日新疆地区421#价格9150元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面， 主力偏多态度较为明显。 预计工业硅2601合约运行区间在7500—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日 ...

[专业赛事服务 实现品牌与客户共赢] "今年是国投期货第六次成为全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛指定交易商。该大赛不仅为投资者提供了 检验交易策略的实战擂台，还让新手得到了体验'F1赛道'的机会，同时也是检验期货公司客户服务能力 的一次大练兵。"国投期货副总经理李洋帆说。 为市场发掘交易人才] 大赛每年吸引众多专业交易员和业余投资者参与。在这个舞台上，来自不同专业背景、行业背景及教育 背景的交易者同台竞技，各展所长，不仅能在实战中检验自己交易策略的有效性，磨炼风险管理能力， 还可以提升期货市场整体的专业程度，助力期货市场高质量发展。 李洋帆介绍，优秀交易选手往往具备强大的心理素质和专业的交易策略：强大的心理素质是期货交易 的"敲门砖"。期货交易是一种杠杆交易，选手面对市场行情波动及账户回撤时需保持稳定的心态，盈利 不骄、亏损不馁，冷静分析，严格执行交易纪律。一条漂亮的收益曲线离不开专业的交易策略。面对行 情变化，选手只有采取不同的策略，如趋势跟踪或波段操作等，才能精准捕捉市场机会，把握市场趋 势。同时，专业的交易策略需配套严格的止盈止损规则，避免因情绪波动导致非理性操作，确保资金安 全才能保护好收益曲线。 对选手 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and refinery operations have rebounded, improving the tight supply situation. As a result, lead prices face upward pressure [1]. - For zinc, overseas structural risks have diminished, and there is insufficient upward momentum for zinc prices. Zinc prices are under pressure. In the medium - term, the fourth - quarter zinc ore supply will tighten, and TC is likely to fall, which will support zinc prices to some extent [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,500.00 yuan/ton, up 1.01% [1]. - Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price was 17,650.00 yuan/ton, down 0.06% [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,092.00 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.44 [1]. Fundamental Information - In the central China region, large lead smelters are affected by environmental control, with raw material arrivals slightly affected and the disassembly volume of waste lead - acid batteries declining. If environmental control is lifted on Saturday, the disassembly volume may increase slightly next week [1]. - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some smelters have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has a small - scale fluctuation [1]. - The operation of secondary lead has recovered to over 50%, with supply increasing, mainly for delivering previous scattered orders, and the inventory accumulation of refineries is not obvious [1]. - Terminal markets have improved, and the operation of lead - battery enterprises is okay, with demand increasing [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,560.00 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price was 22,740.00 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 3,072.00 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 7.40, up 0.26% [1]. Fundamental Information - Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. In October, domestic TC may still decline. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and monthly production is expected to be around 600,000 tons [1]. - There is no significant improvement in demand. With the continuous deterioration of the Shanghai - London ratio, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. Trading Strategy - Lightly short at high levels [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including base metals, precious metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies vary by commodity, with some markets expected to be volatile and others to trend up or down based on supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and policy changes. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Market performance showed prices oscillating strongly. Fundamentals include a pending US House vote on a government - shutdown bill and a Fed official's retirement, with a continued tight supply of copper ore. The trading strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset in the short term [3]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 0.99% from the previous day. Supply is increasing as plants operate at high loads, while demand (weekly aluminum product start - up rate) is slightly decreasing. With a falling dollar index and overseas supply disruptions, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and inventory changes should be monitored [3]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main contract rose 0.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand comes from high - load electrolytic aluminum plants. The market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention on industry production cuts [3]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract rose 0.09% from the previous day. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, while overseas supply is increasing. Consumption is in the off - season, but LME inventory decline provides support. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3][5]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract rose 1.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand from battery enterprises is slightly improving. Domestic inventory is low. The recommended strategy is range - bound operation [3][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 15 yuan/ton. Supply is shrinking as furnace - opening numbers decrease in the southwest, and demand is supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it's advisable to buy on dips [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract rose 0.05%. Supply is expected to be tight in November, with demand from materials like lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increasing. It's recommended to buy on dips cautiously and avoid chasing highs, or consider selling put options [5]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 1530 yuan/ton. Supply is decreasing, and downstream product prices are stable. November's production is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. With the slow progress of the storage platform, it's recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - **Tin**: Prices oscillated strongly. The US House vote and a Fed official's retirement are factors, and tin ore supply is tight. The short - term strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset and watch the 300,000 - yuan resistance level [3][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Overnight prices rose significantly, with domestic silver hitting a record high and driving up gold prices. Fed personnel changes, inventory changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are the main factors. It's recommended to buy gold on dips and gradually reduce silver long positions [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract closed at 3030 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous night. Building material demand and production are both decreasing. The recommended strategy is to wait and see and consider shorting the 2601 contract [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract closed at 768 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous night. Supply and demand are deteriorating marginally, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract closed at 1208.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous night. Iron - water production is decreasing, and the market is in a long - term premium structure. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. The US soybean harvest is nearly over, and South American production is expected to increase. Demand from crushing and exports is improving. It's advisable to focus on the USDA report on Friday, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short - term [8]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose. Corn inventory is low, and demand from deep - processing is strong. New - crop production is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with a wait - and - see strategy recommended [8]. - **Fats and Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell. Supply in Malaysia is increasing, and demand is also rising. It's expected to continue inventory accumulation in the near - term and enter a seasonal production - reduction period later. The P structure is suitable for reverse spreads [8]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5473 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The global sugar supply is expected to be excessive, and the domestic market may follow the downward trend after a short - term rebound. It's recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. Indian cotton production decreased, and inventory increased. Domestic cotton prices oscillated downwards. It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices both fell. Supply pressure is decreasing as production inventory drops, but demand is weakening after Double Eleven. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. Pig prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace due to new device production and import window closure. Demand is weakening as the agricultural film season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4583, down 0.2%. Supply is increasing, demand is slightly improving, and inventory is high. It's recommended to short or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply pressure is large in the long - term. Polyester factory load is high, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It's recommended to take profit on long positions and short processing fees on far - month contracts [10][11]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract rose 0.56%. Raw material prices are supportive, and inventory is increasing. It's recommended to maintain an oscillating trading strategy and watch for raw material supply in the main production areas [11]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1049, down 1.2%. Supply is excessive, inventory is high, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is increasing as new devices are put into operation, and demand is weakening as the peak season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [11]. - **MEG**: The East China spot price is 3981 yuan/ton, and inventory is accumulating. It's recommended to short at high prices on the 01 contract [11]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell sharply due to the OPEC monthly report. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is seasonally weak. If Russian oil production decline is less than 500,000 barrels per day, it's advisable to short at high prices [11][12]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is expected to improve marginally in the short - term but weaken in the long - term as new devices are put into operation. Demand is weakening. It's recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads in the long - term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract closed at 1215, down 0.9%. Supply is stable, inventory is balanced, and demand from photovoltaic glass is normal. It's recommended to wait and see [12].

Core Insights - The "Tongzhou Cup" special award has gained significant attention in the market due to its distinct industry characteristics and professional competition design [1] - Participants in the peanut category, such as Han Jingbo and Huang Liwei, shared their practical experiences and insights from the competition, highlighting their deep industry backgrounds and trading strategies [1][2] Group 1: Participants' Backgrounds - Han Jingbo from Henan Chishu Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. has 16 years of experience in the futures industry, focusing on peanut futures since its inception [1] - Huang Liwei, known as "Mifei Agricultural Products," has been involved in futures since 2009, with a strong focus on agricultural products, particularly peanuts [2] Group 2: Trading Strategies - Han Jingbo employs a strategy combining arbitrage and options selling, leveraging his background in risk management and physical trade to make subjective arbitrage decisions [3] - Huang Liwei emphasizes flexibility in strategy, adjusting approaches based on market conditions and utilizing options to enhance capital efficiency and returns [3] Group 3: Risk Management - Han Jingbo maintained a maximum drawdown of approximately 2.2% during the competition, adhering to strict stop-loss disciplines based on absolute amounts [4] - Huang Liwei highlighted the importance of adapting to market changes, using his deep industry understanding to manage risks effectively, keeping drawdowns within acceptable limits [4] Group 4: Value of the Competition - Both participants acknowledged the value of the "Tongzhou Cup" in expanding their trading perspectives and enhancing their market understanding through interaction with other skilled traders [5] - The competition serves as a professional platform for industry participants to exchange ideas and learn from each other, contributing to the growth of the futures market [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, geopolitical risks, and policy changes [2][3][4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metal prices rose significantly, with the London gold price up 2.88% to $4,115 per ounce. The US Senate passed a temporary funding bill, the Chinese central bank increased its gold holdings for the 12th consecutive month, and US inflation showed signs of slowing. Domestic gold ETFs saw inflows, and some inventories remained stable while others changed slightly. The recommended strategy is to buy on support for gold and reduce long positions for silver [2]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of inventory changes, with some inventories increasing and others decreasing. The recommended strategy is to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated with a slight upward trend. The US government's potential end of the shutdown boosted market sentiment, while the supply of copper ore remained tight. Domestic weekly inventories decreased, and a short - term bullish and oscillatory approach is recommended [3]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract decreased slightly. Supply of domestic zinc concentrate tightened, but overseas mine output increased. Consumption was in the off - season, but LME inventory decline and export opportunities provided some support. The recommended strategy is to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract increased slightly. Supply from primary and recycled lead production was stable, and the battery enterprise's operating rate improved slightly. Domestic inventory was at a relatively low level for the year. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended [3][4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market showed a slow upward trend. The supply side saw a decrease in furnace openings in the southwest region, and both social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. Demand was supported by polysilicon and organic silicon production. The price is expected to range between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The market opened low and closed high. Supply decreased slightly, and inventories increased. Downstream product prices were stable, and the photovoltaic installation growth in the fourth quarter is expected to face pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [4]. - **Tin**: The tin price oscillated with a slight upward trend. Market sentiment improved as the US government's shutdown neared an end, supply was temporarily tight, and demand was weak. A short - term bullish and oscillatory approach is recommended [4]. Black Industries - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price increased slightly. Building material inventories decreased, and the supply - demand situation was weak with structural differentiation. Steel mills were in a loss - making situation, and production may continue to decline. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and an attempt to long the 01 contract rebar - iron ore ratio can be made [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price remained unchanged. Arrivals and shipments decreased, and port inventories increased. The supply - demand situation deteriorated marginally, and the price is expected to range between 740 - 770 yuan/ton. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and an attempt to long the 01 contract rebar - iron ore ratio can be made [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price increased slightly. Iron water production decreased, and steel mill profits worsened. The third round of price increases was implemented, and the fourth was being considered. Inventories were at a low level, and the futures price was overvalued. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and the price is expected to range between 1,230 - 1,280 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price rose overnight. Supply from the US decreased slightly, and South America is expected to increase production. Demand from crushing and exports improved. The US soybean market is bullish in the short - term, while the domestic market is relatively strong due to low valuation. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - **Corn**: Corn futures and spot prices rose. Channel inventories were low, and there was a need for restocking. New - crop production is expected to increase, and costs have decreased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract price increased. Internationally, the supply surplus is expected to widen due to good growth in Indian sugarcane. Domestically, policy rumors led to a price rebound, but it is expected to follow the international market downwards. The recommended strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton futures price rebounded, and the international crude oil price rose. In the US, the grading inspection progress is known, and Australian exports decreased. In China, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated narrowly. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, with a trading range of 13,400 - 13,800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market changed little. The estimated production in October increased, and exports also rose. There is a short - term inventory build - up and a long - term seasonal production decline expectation. A reverse calendar spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were stable. The laying hen inventory decreased, and demand increased seasonally. After the Double - Eleven promotion, the futures price is expected to oscillate downwards [8]. - **Hogs**: Hog futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices showed a north - south divergence. Supply was abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price increased. In some production areas, acquisition prices rose, and the market sentiment was optimistic. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE futures price oscillated slightly. Supply pressure eased as new devices were put into operation and imports decreased. Demand weakened after the peak season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, a short - selling strategy or reverse calendar spread can be considered [10]. - **PVC**: The PVC futures price decreased. Supply increased with new device launches, and demand was weak due to factors such as real - estate conditions and anti - dumping measures. A short - selling strategy is recommended [10]. - **PTA**: The PX supply was high, and PTA had a supply - demand situation with a slight inventory decrease. The recommended strategy is to take profit on long positions in PX and short the processing margin in PTA in the long - term [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber futures price increased slightly. Raw material prices were stable, and inventories in Qingdao continued to increase but at a slower pace. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended [10]. - **Glass**: The glass futures price decreased. Production lines were shut down, and inventory decreased as downstream restocked. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [10][11]. - **PP**: The PP futures price oscillated slightly. Supply increased with new device launches, and demand weakened after the peak season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, a short - selling strategy or reverse calendar spread can be considered [11]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply pressure was high, and inventory was expected to increase. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies for the 01 contract [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price oscillated. Supply faced risks due to sanctions on Russia and potential actions against Venezuela, while demand was seasonally weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and if the Russian oil supply reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day, short - selling on rallies can be considered [11]. - **Styrene**: The styrene futures price oscillated slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies or use a reverse calendar spread in the long - term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures price increased. Supply was affected by maintenance, and inventory decreased slightly. The supply - demand was balanced, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [12].

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of the "Spider Web Strategy" in the context of Treasury futures, indicating its effectiveness in short-term trading, particularly in the TL contract with a signal win rate of 57.61% and an odds ratio of 1.64, outperforming the long position benchmark in terms of return volatility ratio and maximum drawdown [3][17][20] - The report also emphasizes the success of the "Net Long Position Ratio Change" indicator in mid-term trading, which showed a stable positive correlation with future returns in TF and T contracts, leading to the design of a long gradient leverage strategy that achieved annualized returns of 37.2% for TL [4][24][25] Short-term Trading: Spider Web Strategy Performance - The Spider Web Strategy, based on the daily changes in the top 20 members' long and short positions, has been tested and found to perform excellently on the TL contract, with a signal win rate of 57.61% and an odds ratio of 1.64 [3][17] - The strategy's performance in other contracts (TS, TF, T) was not as favorable, indicating a need for further refinement [3][17] Mid-term Trading: Net Long Position Ratio Change Indicator - The "Net Long Position Ratio Change" was constructed as a continuous timing factor, showing a stable positive correlation with future returns in TF and T contracts, while being negatively correlated in TL [4][24] - The strategy designed based on this indicator achieved annualized returns of 26.54%, significantly outperforming the benchmark for the CSI 300 index futures [25] Individual Behavior Analysis of Treasury Futures Members - Analysis of individual member behavior in Treasury futures revealed significant differentiation in long position ratios and trading styles, with the Spider Web signal failing to outperform the composite signals of all members [5][12] - The report notes that the high participation of institutional investors in the Treasury futures market may dilute the effectiveness of the Spider Web Strategy due to their lower trading frequency [23] Gradient Leverage Strategy - A "Long Gradient Leverage Strategy" was developed, where higher thresholds correspond to heavier positions, achieving significant enhancements across all four Treasury futures varieties [38][39][40] - The strategy's annualized returns were reported as 1.60% for TS, 5.15% for TF, and 7.61% for T, all significantly exceeding their respective benchmarks [39][40][42]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each commodity, offering insights for investors to make informed decisions in the futures market. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: Yesterday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.73% to 21,295 yuan/ton. The LME price was 2,904 dollars/ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate remained stable. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and potential overseas production cuts due to power shortages, the price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract rose by 2.20% yesterday. Some alumina plants resumed production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. With the spot price showing signs of stopping decline and the influence of "anti - involution" news, the main short - sellers significantly reduced their positions. It is suggested to buy call options on dips and follow the changes in the positions of the main seats [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main 01 contract closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 2.40%. Supply may decrease in the southwest in late October. Social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. The high - inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2601 closed at 82,900 yuan/ton, up 1.5%. Supply reached a new high last week, and demand was strong in October. It is expected to maintain a shortage in the short - term. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts and be cautious when chasing up [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3,138 yuan/ton. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a reference range of 3,090 - 3,160 yuan/ton for RB01 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 807.5 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is neutral to strong, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation will be slightly slower than the historical average. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a reference range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton for I01 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,303.5 yuan/ton. Steel mill profits are deteriorating, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to mainly wait and see, with a reference range of 1,270 - 1,320 yuan/ton for JM01 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are short - term strong, trading on optimistic trade expectations. Globally, high - inventory expectations remain. The domestic market is following the cost side and oscillating. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [5]. - **Corn**: Corn futures are weak, and the spot price is mixed. With expected new - crop production increase and cost reduction, the spot price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term Malaysian palm oil market is falling. The near - term palm oil in Malaysia is accumulating inventory, and the long - term may see seasonal production cuts. Oils and fats are weak with variety differentiation, and it is recommended to focus on the P structure for reverse spreads [5]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5,496 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. Brazil's next - season production increase is expected. If the northern hemisphere's production increase is realized, the domestic sugar price will face downward pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, US cotton futures rose. International and domestic market performances are mixed. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy in the 13,400 - 13,700 yuan/ton range [5][6]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures are rising, and the spot price is stable. With sufficient supply and low vegetable prices, egg prices are expected to be low. The futures price is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Hogs**: Hog futures are oscillating narrowly, and the spot price is partially rising. With increasing supply, rising slaughter volume, and secondary fattening, hog prices are expected to repair through oscillation [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The domestic supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, and the demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [7]. - **PVC**: V01 closed at 4,775, up 1%. The fundamentals are weak, with increased supply, high inventory, and uncertain demand. It is recommended to short [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA production is increasing. Polyester demand is improving, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It is recommended to go long on PX and short the PTA processing fee on rallies [7][8]. - **Rubber**: RU2601 closed at 15,625 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. With a warm macro - environment, the market confidence is boosted. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US summit [8]. - **Glass**: FG01 closed at 1,128, up 1.6%. The supply is high, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to do reverse spreads [8]. - **PP**: The PP main contract oscillated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but with some demand overdraft. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [8]. - **MEG**: The MEG East China spot price is 4,152 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. The supply and demand contradictions are large. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9]. - **Soda Ash**: SA01 closed at 1,260, up 1.1%. The supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - The potential halving of Sino-US fentanyl tariffs boosted market sentiment, and the EC futures market continued to rise. On October 29, EC2512 closed at 1,871 points, up 4.62% from the previous day. The SCFI European line reported $1,246/TEU on October 24, up 8.8% month-on-month, and the latest SCFIS European line reported 1,312.71 points, up 15.11% month-on-month [5][6]. - Spot freight rates have risen significantly. The final settlement price of the EC2510 contract was 1,161.63 points. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US and China will discuss a trade framework to reduce US tariffs on Chinese goods, and the US may halve the fentanyl - related tariffs on China [6]. Logic Analysis - In terms of spot freight rates, the price difference among major shipping companies has widened again. Some shipping companies have lower SPOT prices due to cargo - collection pressure, but the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam WK46 weekly quote decreased by $150 compared to last week, and it also released a PSS quote of $300/FEU for the Far East - Northern Europe route [7]. - Different shipping companies have different price quotes for November. It is expected that spot freight rates will gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies may continue to raise prices. However, the implementation of price increases needs to be monitored [7]. - On the demand side, shipments are expected to improve from November to December, and the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipment rhythm should be noted. On the supply side, the weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 - port route will be 241,100/260,400/289,200 TEU in October, November, and December respectively, with a slight increase in December [7]. - Regarding Sino - US ship sanctions, there is an expectation of a reduction in port fees. The progress of the Palestine - Israel cease - fire agreement is tortuous and has recently escalated. The sentiment regarding fentanyl tariffs has eased, and the progress of subsequent negotiations should be followed [7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: For the EC2512 contract, long positions can be reduced and profits can be taken at high prices. The remaining positions can be rolled with a low - buying strategy. Attention should be paid to the Palestine - Israel negotiations, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and port congestion [8][10]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. 2. Industry News - The Wall Street Journal reported that if China takes action to cut the export of fentanyl chemicals, the US will halve the 20% fentanyl - related tariffs on Chinese goods (from 20% to 10%). The expected agreement may be adjusted depending on the meeting between the two sides [11]. - The Wall Street Journal reported that the US and China will lower the port fees imposed on each other [12]. - On October 28th, Hamas denied any connection with the attack on Israeli troops in Rafah, southern Gaza, and emphasized its commitment to the current cease - fire agreement. It also stated that the Israeli military's attacks violated the cease - fire agreement and called on mediators to pressure Israel to stop the violations [12]. - Market news reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the military to immediately launch an attack on Gaza [13]. 3. Market Data Futures Market - For different contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc., the report provides closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interest, and open - interest change percentages [5]. - The report also presents the month - spread structure, including the price differences and their changes between different contracts [5]. Container Freight Rates - It provides the prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various container freight rates, such as SCFIS European line, SCFIS US West line, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes like Shanghai - West Africa, Shanghai - South Africa, etc. [5]. Fuel Costs - The prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes of WTI and Brent crude oil near - month contracts are reported [5].