美伊地缘局势，带动甲醇盘面上涨 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤500元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润375元/吨（+3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1850元/吨（+3），内蒙北线基差157元/吨（-76），内蒙南线1880元/吨（+25）；山东临沂2225元/吨（+15）， 鲁南基差132元/吨（-63）；河南2100元/吨（+10），河南基差7元/吨（-68）；河北2085元/吨（+30），河北基差52元/ 吨（-48）。隆众内地工厂库存422590吨（+18620），西北工厂库存253500吨（+22000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单182510 吨（-11118），西北工厂待发订单94200吨（-1300）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2268元/吨（+48），太仓基差-25元/吨（-30），CFR中国262美元/吨（+5），华东进口价差-27元/ 吨（-20），常州甲醇2330元/吨；广东甲醇2260元/吨（+60），广东基差-33元/吨（-18）。隆众港口总库存1477408吨 （+64899），江苏港口库存843845吨（+28554），浙江港口库存203300吨（+ ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月04日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-12-25 尿素持续去库，关注新单成交 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-24，尿素主力收盘1735元/吨（+14）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1710 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1730元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1720元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0），山东基差： -5元/吨（-4）；河南基差：-25元/吨（+16）；江苏基差：-15元/吨（-4）；尿素生产利润151元/吨（+10），出口利润 834元/吨（+10）。 供应端：截至2025-12-24，企业产能利用率80.69%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为106.89 万吨（-11.08），港口样 本库存量为13.80 万吨（+1.50）。 需求端：截至2025-12-24，复合肥产能利用率39.37%（-1.25%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.55%（-3.31%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.35日（+0.11）。 本周环保限产逐渐恢复，尿素企业及下游工业开工均有小幅提升。近期尿素现货受下游开工小幅恢复及市场宏观 氛围影响，成交好转，主流生产企业待发增加，价格上涨新单成交放缓。供应端四季 ...

2025年12月22日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周五国际金价高位震荡，国际银价站上 67 美元。 | | 金 | 基本面：纽约联储行长威廉姆斯表示没有进一步降息的紧迫性，11 月 CPI 数据存在一定失真；日本央行 9：0 | | 属 | 全票通过，如期加息 25 基点，若经济和物价前景实现将继续加息；美国在委内瑞拉附近水域拦截第三艘油轮； | | | 法国预算案谈判破裂，30 年期法债收益率创 2009 年来新高；美联储主席遴选进程仍在持续。目前候选名单 | | | 已缩小至四人：白宫经济顾问哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）、前美联储理事沃什（Kevin Warsh）、美联储理事沃勒， | | | 以及贝莱德的固定收益首席投资官里德尔（Rick Rieder）。国内黄金 ETF 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存为 1119.8 | | | 吨，-2 吨； | | | 上期所黄金库存为 91.7 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1052.5 吨，维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 | | | ...

期货开户入口 2017 + 价差及量能说明 2025年12月18日 焦煤 住 (d 任 90 lt 自编 移动 移地 106. PP ter PL 48.6 在线 原油 恒所 8 摘 IDG 动声 PVC 不锈钢 � 授指 DD 8日 $2 储 两金 授股 4 a 475 第1章 红中 7 - 12 旋拍 日报 de 鸡蛋 型长 #双:中 日冠 n 王岁 == H 量仓变化统计 市场力 从业资格证号:F3020809 投资咨询资格:Z0013442 研究员 田猛 本产品数据与信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性 不做任何保证。我们力求内容客观、公正、观点及内容仅供参考,不构成所 述品种的买卖出价。任何表示过去或历史业绩的信息均不代表未来的业绩, 交易者据此作出的任何投资决策及交易行为与本公司无关。交易者应综合考 虑自身风险承受能力,依据自己的独立思考做出投资决策,自行承担投资决 策风险和交易结果。本报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构 和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 风险揭示:期市有风险 入市需谨慎。本文观点仅供参考,不作为入市依据。 热点品种 2025年12月18日 | ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13940 | -60 | 172,925 | -62960 | 286,672 | -60453 | | CF05合约 | 13945 | -45 | 365,259 | 39588 | 713,587 | 34708 | | CF09合约 | 14120 | -45 | 19,927 | 1914 | 28,836 | 2126 | | CY01合约 | 19855 | -40 | 160 | -161 | 945 | -74 | | CY05合约 | 20040 | -20 | 36 | 2 ...

Market Overview - Nifty Bank index opened lower at 59,054, down 0.3% from Friday's close of 59,390, currently at 59,220 [1] - The advance/decline ratio is 3/9, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1] - Nifty Private Bank and Nifty PSU Bank indices are both down approximately 0.3%, reflecting similar selling pressure across public and private banks [2] Individual Bank Performance - Federal Bank increased by 0.8%, IDFC First Bank by 0.7%, and Canara Bank by 0.1%, marking them as gainers [1] - IndusInd Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank are the top losers, down 0.9% and 0.7% respectively [1] Futures Market - December expiry Nifty Bank futures opened lower at 59,600, down nearly 0.4% from last week's close of 59,658, currently trading at 59,440 [3] - Important support levels are identified at 59,150 and 59,000, which may prevent further declines [3] - A potential rebound could push Nifty Bank futures to targets of 60,500 and 61,000 [3] Support and Resistance Levels - If the futures contract falls below the support level of 59,000, the short-term outlook may turn bearish, with notable support at 58,250 [4] - Current trade strategy suggests staying out for now, with a long position on Nifty Bank futures recommended if it slips to 59,150, targeting 60,500 with a stop-loss at 58,900 [5] - Supports are at 59,150 and 59,000, while resistances are at 60,200 and 60,500 [5] Companies to Monitor - IndusInd Bank Ltd is highlighted as a company to follow in the current market context [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass for shorting on rallies [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and replenish on lows; aluminum for increased observation; nickel for waiting or shorting on rallies; tin for range trading; gold for range trading; silver for holding long positions and cautious new positions; lithium carbonate for strong - side oscillation [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC for range trading; caustic soda for temporary waiting; soda ash for temporary waiting; styrene for range trading; rubber for range trading; urea for range trading; methanol for range trading; polyolefins for weak - side oscillation [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn for strong - side oscillation; PTA for upward oscillation; apples for strong - side oscillation; red dates for weak - side oscillation [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs for a strategy of shorting on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness for far - term contracts; eggs for limited upside; corn for cautious chasing of highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; soybean meal for range operation; oils for gradually taking profit on previously established short positions [1]. Core Views - The market is influenced by a variety of factors, including macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different sectors and varieties have different trends and investment strategies due to their unique fundamentals [1][6][8]. - Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, such as oversupply in soda ash and strong supply pressure in the pig market, while others benefit from factors like improving demand or supply disruptions, like the potential support for tin prices from supply tightness [18][34]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium - to long - term bullish, with short - term possible sideways movement. Influenced by factors such as potential Fed chair appointments, Chinese economic data, and policy responses to the central economic work conference [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade sideways. Driven by factors like central bank policies, regulatory changes, and the need for year - end configuration [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended. The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal supports [8]. - **Rebar**: Range trading is advised. With low valuations and weak drivers, prices may oscillate weakly [8]. - **Glass**: Shorting on rallies is suggested. High inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases lead to a bearish outlook [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation is expected. Macro - easing expectations and long - term supply shortages support prices, but short - term over - rise has curbed consumption and increased adjustment risks [11][12]. - **Aluminum**: A rebound is possible, but increased observation is recommended. Factors include changes in bauxite prices, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities, and demand in the off - season [13]. - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. Long - term supply surplus exists, but new RKAB policies bring uncertainties [16]. - **Tin**: Range trading is recommended. Supply is tight, and downstream consumption is weak, but prices are expected to be supported [18]. - **Silver**: Sideways movement. Fed policies, economic data, and industrial demand support prices, with a strategy of holding long positions and cautious new positions [18]. - **Gold**: Range trading is advised. Fed policies and economic uncertainties lead to a bullish medium - term outlook [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Strong - side oscillation. Supply is affected by mine situations, and demand is strong, with attention needed on mine developments [20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Low - level oscillation. Weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth lead to a weak outlook, but low valuations and potential policy supports exist [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cautiously bearish, with temporary waiting. High inventory, weak demand from downstream alumina, and potential production changes are factors [23]. - **Styrene**: Sideways movement. Overseas blending logic has limited impact on the weak fundamentals, with attention on price changes [24]. - **Rubber**: Sideways movement. Uncertain supply - demand, high inventory, and weak downstream demand lead to a range - bound market [24][25]. - **Urea**: Sideways movement. Supply increases, and demand is a mix of weakening agricultural demand and strengthening industrial demand, with inventory changes affecting prices [26][27]. - **Methanol**: Sideways movement. Supply is stable, demand from methanol - to - olefins is mixed, and traditional demand is weak, with inventory decreases [27]. - **Polyolefins**: Weak - side oscillation. Supply is strong, demand is weak, especially for PE agricultural film, but inventory reduction provides some support [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Temporary waiting. Supply surplus is the main pressure, but cost support and potential supply contractions are factors [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Strong - side oscillation. Global supply - demand is relatively loose, but domestic sales and yarn prices support the market [31]. - **PTA**: Upward oscillation. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices, and PTA supply - demand is in a de - stocking phase [31][33]. - **Apples**: Strong - side oscillation. Market trading is general, with prices in different regions showing certain ranges [33]. - **Red Dates**: Weak - side oscillation. Acquisition progress is in the late stage, and enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is general [33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Sideways bottom - building. Short - term supply pressure exists, and long - term prices are affected by capacity reduction and cost changes, with different strategies for near - and far - term contracts [34]. - **Eggs**: Limited upside. Short - term spot and futures are range - bound, medium - term supply - demand improves marginally, and long - term supply pressure remains [35][36][37]. - **Corn**: Rebound. Short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and long - term demand gradually recovers, but supply - demand is relatively loose [37]. - **Soybean Meal**: Range oscillation. Near - term contracts are strong due to supply delays and de - stocking, while far - term contracts are weak due to South American production expectations [38]. - **Oils**: Soybean and palm oils for weak - side oscillation, rapeseed oil for limited rebound. Different supply - demand situations and external factors lead to different trends [38][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report [1][4][11] 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium futures market is expected to be strong in the short - term. With a large - scale battery purchase agreement in the North American market, there is a strong demand expectation. If inventory continues to decline, the futures price may rise further. It's recommended to buy on dips [1] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. The establishment of a storage platform indicates future production cuts, but the downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [4][7] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures market is expected to remain weak. The supply - demand pattern of the industry is weak, with high inventory and limited restocking due to downstream production cut expectations [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The main 2605 contract of carbonate lithium futures rose 3.43% to 95,980 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [1] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by a large - scale battery purchase agreement in the North American market, there is a strong demand expectation. The inventory data to be released tomorrow afternoon may affect the price [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased significantly, and it is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and red ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a strong red ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 92,160 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips, and refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [1] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The main 2605 contract of polysilicon futures fell 0.03% to 54,600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [4] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the establishment of a joint platform, the price opened higher. The establishment of the storage platform means future production cuts, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is still accumulating [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position decreased slightly, and it is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a weak green ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 54,835 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [7] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures fell 1.43% to 8,255 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [11] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the production cut expectations of polysilicon and organic silicon, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and the inventory is at a three - year high with continuous accumulation for three weeks [11] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased slightly, and it is controlled by bears. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, blue band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a weak green ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 8,950 yuan/ton [11] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to the influence of downstream polysilicon policies and short - term emotional fluctuations. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [11]

12月9日晚上期货交易策略 思路分享： 来源：新黑金日志 螺纹的多单被迫止损，今天是螺纹补跌的日子，不过我还是会继续做多螺纹的。总感觉空头会看到比较 好的基本面数据之后，会离场一下。 （来源：新黑金日志） 今天比较意外的是乙二醇的多单，居然赚钱，尾盘反弹比较多，预计还能往上拱一拱。趋势下跌行情中 出个大反弹也是正常的，不过我们也要及时止盈。 ...