Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Core Viewpoints - Soybeans and soybean meal are expected to trade sideways. The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, but there is support as they enter the destocking season [2][4] - Palm oil may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 due to seasonal production declines, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [7][8] - The international sugar price may lack significant improvement until Q1 2026, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, with short - term观望 advised [11] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend in the short - term, although there is some upward pressure from capital [14] - The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure [17] - For live pigs, it is recommended to maintain an inverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to going long on far - term contracts [20] Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal Market Information - Overnight CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher due to export demand. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of soybean arrivals in China was stable. On Wednesday, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan, with the price in East China at 3010 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.05583 million tons, down from 2.2116 million tons last week. Last week, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased [2] - Brazil's main planting areas are forecast to have more rainfall in the next two weeks, and the soybean planting rate has reached 94%. However, Argentina's main producing areas are expected to have less rainfall. The global soybean annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high, and it is expected that soybean arrival costs will mainly fluctuate in the absence of significant problems in South American weather. As of December 2, institutions reported soybean purchases of 8.76 million tons in September, 7.73 million tons in October, 6.52 million tons in November, and 4.85 million tons in December [2] Strategy - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and crushing margins are under pressure. However, as they enter the destocking season, there is some support, and soybean meal is expected to trade sideways [4] Fats and Oils Market Information - MPOB's November data showed that Malaysian palm oil production decreased, but exports were sluggish, and the market was more bearish in the short - term. However, with the pre - Spring Festival restocking, Malaysian palm oil export demand is expected to improve. On Wednesday, domestic fats and oils first fell and then recovered. Foreign capital slightly increased long positions in palm oil and short positions in other fats and oils. Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation is suppressing the market, but there is still an expectation of destocking in Southeast Asian production areas in the medium - term [6] Strategy - This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market. However, due to seasonal production declines, the current situation of inventory accumulation may reverse in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [7][8] Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures slightly decreased. The closing price of the May contract was 5225 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. As of December 10, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 crushing season, 7 less than the same period last year. In mid - November, Brazil's central - southern region had a sugar cane crushing volume of 18.761 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%, and sugar production of 0.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugar cane, a year - on - year increase of 15.2 million tons, and produced 4.135 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.375 million tons [10] Strategy - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. The international sugar price may not improve significantly until Q1 2026. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the long - term trend is bearish. However, the domestic sugar price is at a relatively low level, and short - term观望 is advised [11] Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the May contract was 13,760 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day. The spot price of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,004 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was下调 by 60,000 tons to 26.08 million tons in December compared to November. As of the week of December 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.47 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons year - on - year [13] Strategy - From a fundamental perspective, although the peak season was not strong, demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous price decline had digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, there was some capital pushing up the cotton price in the short - term, but there was no strong driving force in the short - term, and the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton was low [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or increased, with the average price in the main producing areas rising 0.05 yuan to 3.06 yuan/jin. The market had little remaining inventory, and demand in the sales areas was okay, but the enthusiasm of dealers to purchase was average. Egg prices are expected to be generally stable with slight increases today [16] Strategy - Based on the current "weak reality" of the egg industry, the futures market has anticipated future capacity reduction, giving high premiums to far - term contracts. However, the current capacity reduction is limited, and there is uncertainty in the future rhythm. From the demand side, egg prices are likely to first fall, then stabilize, and then rise. The recent futures price trend is relatively strong, and the valuation of near - and far - term contracts may be too high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [17] Live Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mostly increased, with some areas remaining stable. Affected by snow - related restocking, the supply in the north was less than demand, and pig prices may increase slightly. In the southwest, supply and demand were both high and in a stalemate, with prices likely to remain stable. In the south, it was difficult to digest the supply, and pig prices may decrease slightly [19] Strategy - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is still large. With the increase in slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still high year - on - year and increasing month - on - month. The pressure on the supply side remains. Near - term contracts are still under pressure from the spot market, but may fluctuate due to spot prices and positions. The expectation of far - term capacity reduction is strong, and the downside space may be limited. It is recommended to maintain an inverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to going long on far - term contracts [20]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Corn: In the short term, the spot price of corn has started an upward trend driven by supply tightening and downstream restocking demand. Farmer reluctance to sell has delayed the release of selling pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern remains tight, and planting costs will support prices. After the selling pressure eases, prices may rise again [4]. - Starch: In the short term, starch prices follow raw material prices. High inventory due to slow downstream restocking pressures prices. In the long term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor, and a significant price drop may stimulate restocking and price increases [4]. - Sugar: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import quota management and syrup import control than the international market, with domestic production costs as the key support. In the long term, if the global sugar market surplus deepens, domestic costs may be temporarily broken through. Maintain a short - selling strategy, but the downward space is limited in the short term [5]. - Cotton: New cotton acquisition is mostly completed, with the estimated total output revised down. The positive outcome of the China - US talks and tariff cuts are beneficial for textile exports. The valuation is unlikely to return to the April low, making long - term long positions suitable [7]. - Eggs: Supply pressure is partially relieved by orderly hen culling and a decrease in new layer hens. Demand increases as cooler weather allows longer storage. The price center in production areas has moved up slightly. Monitoring the culling rhythm is crucial, as faster culling may drive prices up [11]. - Apples: National apple storage is mostly finished. The estimated national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5% of capacity, a 10% decrease from last year. The market is short on high - quality apples, and the price difference between good and bad apples has widened. The futures price has risen significantly and is expected to remain high in the short term [15]. - Pigs: The weekend spot market shows weakness in the north and stability in the south. In the short term, the market is in a weak and volatile state. Mid - term supply pressure persists due to un - reduced production capacity. Attention should be paid to factors such as the selling rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]. Detailed Summaries by Product Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From November 12 - 18, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2070, while the price in Shekou increased by 20. The corn basis increased by 14, and the trade profit increased by 20. For starch, the basis increased by 22, and the processing profit remained unchanged [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From November 12 - 18, 2025, the price in Kunming decreased by 30, and the Zhengzhou futures price decreased by 11 [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From November 12 - 18, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 35, and the total of cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 96. The price of domestic cotton yarn decreased by 5, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 31 [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From November 12 - 18, 2025, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei decreased by 0.06, 0.07, 0.10, 0.10, and 0.09 respectively. The basis decreased by 79, and the prices of substitute products remained unchanged [11]. Apples - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 12 - 18, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000.00. The national inventory increased by 5.00, while Shandong and Shaanxi inventories decreased by 38.00 and 27.00 respectively [14][15]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From November 12 - 18, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong changed by 0.05, 0.10, - 0.05, 0.05, and 0.00 respectively. The basis increased by 210.00 [15].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of China's willingness to purchase at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this season and a minimum of 25 million tons annually for the next three years has provided a temporary sense of relief to U.S. soybean farmers, although challenges remain ahead [1][8]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, soybean prices surged to a nearly 15-month high, indicating a strong market response [3]. - Other commodities such as soybean meal and corn also experienced price increases, reflecting a broader market enthusiasm [6]. Group 2: Farmer Sentiment - Farmers expressed a mix of relief and cautious optimism, with some feeling a sense of hope after a prolonged period of uncertainty [3][8]. - Despite the positive news, there remains a sense of wariness among farmers regarding the sustainability of this market recovery [7][8]. Group 3: Operational Adjustments - Farmers have resumed more active operations, including shipping arrangements and labor adjustments, as they respond to the renewed market activity [5]. - The upcoming shipping schedules and contracts are being closely monitored by farmers as they plan for the future [10]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - While the recent orders provide a temporary boost, industry experts caution that this does not resolve all underlying issues, and long-term market stability remains uncertain [6][8]. - The timeline for actual shipments and further confirmations will be critical in determining the future direction of the market [10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the end of the "export rush" for soybeans in Argentina, indicating a cooling trend in the agricultural market [1] - It raises the question of whether global buyers should consider bottom fishing or remain cautious in their purchasing decisions [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Argentina's agricultural market is experiencing a decline, impacting soybean exports significantly [1] - The shift in market dynamics suggests a potential change in pricing and availability for global buyers [1] Group 2: Buyer Strategies - Global buyers are faced with a decision-making dilemma: to either take advantage of lower prices or to wait for further market developments [1] - The article implies that the current market conditions may present both opportunities and risks for international buyers [1]