Workflow
农产品种植
icon
Search documents
棕榈油:产地去库偏慢,关注棕油下方支撑,豆油:南美产情偏好,关注中美经贸关系
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 01:51
Report Title - "Palm Oil: Slow De-stocking in Origin Regions, Focus on Downside Support for Palm Oil" and "Soybean Oil: Favorable Production Situation in South America, Focus on China-US Economic and Trade Relations" [1][2] Report Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including price, trading volume, position, spot price, basis, and spread data, as well as macro and industry news [3][4] Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Palm oil futures: The closing price of the main contract during the day session was 9,308 yuan/ton, down 0.04%, and 9,354 yuan/ton at night, up 0.49%. The trading volume was 484,295 lots, an increase of 100,467 lots, and the position was 337,826 lots, a decrease of 10,220 lots [3] - Soybean oil futures: The closing price of the main contract during the day session was 8,256 yuan/ton, unchanged, and 8,298 yuan/ton at night, up 0.51%. The trading volume was 295,513 lots, an increase of 88,765 lots, and the position was 499,960 lots, an increase of 1,780 lots [3] - Rapeseed oil futures: The closing price of the main contract during the day session was 9,861 yuan/ton, down 0.74%, and 9,874 yuan/ton at night, up 0.13%. The trading volume was 226,809 lots, an increase of 67,299 lots, and the position was 281,371 lots, a decrease of 6,590 lots [3] Spot Data - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The spot price was 9,250 yuan/ton, with no price change [3] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The spot price was 8,660 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The spot price was 10,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [3] Basis Data - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis: - 58 yuan/ton [3] - Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis: 404 yuan/ton [3] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis: 259 yuan/ton [3] Spread Data - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 553 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 623 yuan/ton) [3] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 1,052 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was - 1,056 yuan/ton) [3] - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: 44 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 54 yuan/ton) [3] - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: 214 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 194 yuan/ton) [3] - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: 386 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 441 yuan/ton) [3] Macro and Industry News - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15, 2025, were 606,292 tons, a 49.8% increase from 404,688 tons in the same period last month [4] - As of the week of October 14, 2025, about 39% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week [5] - Brazilian farmers had planted soybeans on 23.27% of the expected area in 2025, compared with 9.33% in the same period last year, and higher than the 2023 record of 17.35% and the past 5 - year average of 16.20% [6] - As of October 17, 2025, the soybean - planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season had reached 43.57% of the estimated total area, up from 21.22% the previous week and 25.08% in the same period last year [6] - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean - planting area was expected to be 18 million hectares, unchanged from the previous month's estimate and an 8.4% increase from 16.6 million hectares in the previous year. The 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 51.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous month's estimate and a 6% increase from 48.2 million tons in the 2023/24 season. The first planting intention estimate for the 2025/26 season showed an expected area of 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [6] - As of October 8, 2025, Argentine farmers had sold 37.54 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 1.28 million tons more than a week ago, compared with 29.85 million tons in the same period last year. They had pre - sold 3.11 million tons of 2025/26 soybeans, 190,000 tons more than a week ago, compared with 1.11 million tons in the same period last year [7] - As of the week of October 12, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports increased 97.8% to 159,200 tons from the previous week. From August 1 to October 12, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 955,300 tons, a 59.1% decrease from the same period last year. As of October 12, 2025, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.4668 million tons [7] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [8]