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不加关税换稀土和购买大豆?美国财政部长披露部分谈判内容,靠谱吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-27 10:50
Core Insights - The fifth round of US-China trade negotiations has concluded, with representatives using macro-level statements and not disclosing specific details. However, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin provided some insights into the discussions, particularly regarding trade with Malaysia [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The US has abandoned plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which raises questions about whether this refers to all tariffs since 2018 or just the recent threats made by Trump. The current average tariff on Chinese goods is around 50% [3]. - The 10% reciprocal tariff is expected to remain in place, indicating a continuation of certain trade measures [3]. Group 2: Rare Earth Export Controls - Mnuchin expressed belief that the implementation of new rare earth export controls will be postponed for a year, although this statement carries subjective interpretations. The final decision is pending confirmation after a meeting between the two countries' leaders [5]. - The postponement may only apply to new measures introduced after the National Day holiday, as China's rare earth export controls are multi-layered and responsive to US tariff actions [5]. Group 3: Agricultural Trade - Mnuchin hinted that China is likely to purchase US soybeans, suggesting that American farmers will be satisfied with the upcoming season and future years. However, this remains an implication rather than a firm commitment, reflecting uncertainty about the actual scale of purchases [7]. - The outcomes of the negotiations, including agricultural trade, are still uncertain and require confirmation from both leaders, especially given Trump's unpredictable nature [7]. Group 4: Future Meetings and Negotiation Outcomes - The results of the current negotiations are transitional, with a final framework expected to be clarified during the upcoming APEC meeting between the two leaders. This meeting is seen as a critical juncture for validating Mnuchin's earlier statements [9]. - Key topics of the negotiations include tariff adjustments, rare earth control postponements, and agricultural procurement, with preliminary agreements possibly formed but requiring further legal and procedural processing [9].