农机——冉冉升起的中国出口新星 20251212 摘要 2023 年中国农机出口增长主要受益于俄乌战争后欧美品牌撤出俄罗斯 市场，中国企业填补空缺，但受俄罗斯农机报废税政策影响，2024- 2025 年出口增速有所放缓，但 2025 年整体出口金额和数量增速仍可 观。 2025 年中国农机出口月度增速维持在 30%-35%区间，高于全球需求 低迷背景下的其他地区，如美国、欧洲、拉美和亚洲等，这些地区农业 机械收入均有所下滑，美国受粮食价格下跌、高利率和高库存影响最大。 中国农机企业在全球多点开花，头部企业如一拖、雷沃等 2025 年出口 增速普遍在 25%-50%范围内，表明中国农机行业在全球需求低迷情况 下实现了逆势增长。 未来三年，新兴市场如非洲、中亚和东南亚地区农业机械需求成长性强， 这些地区的农业机械化水平与几十年前的中国相似，中国企业凭借性价 比优势在这些市场具有较强竞争力。 中国农机企业正加大海外市场投入，调整战略，从大马力段转向低马力 段产品，以匹配当地需求，并逐步建立配件基地和售后服务体系，提高 竞争力，如拓普股份在公司层面做出战略调整。 Q&A 国新机械在农机出海方面的表现如何？未来三年的核 ...

Core Viewpoint - First Tractor Company (00038) saw a stock increase of over 4%, closing at 7.7 HKD with a trading volume of 24.88 million HKD, driven by strong export growth in agricultural machinery [1] Export Performance - In September 2025, China's agricultural machinery exports amounted to 450.425 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.7% [1] - Cumulative exports from January to September 2025 reached 5.044223 billion CNY, up 40.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - In September, tractor exports totaled 15,556 units, marking a 30.2% increase year-on-year, with export value reaching 77.134 million CNY, a 51.2% increase [1] - From January to September 2025, cumulative tractor exports were 135,702 units, up 20.2%, with a total export value of 665.489 million CNY, reflecting a 33.4% increase [1] Company Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, First Tractor Company sold 42,800 tractors, with overseas sales accounting for 5,445 units, a year-on-year growth of 29.37% [1] - The company has established five major sales regions: Central Asia, Southeast Asia, the Americas, Central and Eastern Europe, and Africa [1] - Notably, the African and Central and Eastern European markets showed impressive performance, with sales growth exceeding 50%, indicating a diversified overseas market strategy that reduces reliance on a single market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of First Tractor Company (00038) has increased by over 4%, driven by strong performance in agricultural machinery exports in China, with diversified export regions contributing to growth [1][2]. Group 1: Export Performance - In September 2025, China's agricultural machinery exports amounted to 450.425 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.7% [1]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative export value reached 5.044223 billion yuan, up 40.1% compared to the same period last year [1]. - In September 2025, the number of tractors exported was 15,556 units, a 30.2% increase year-on-year, with export value reaching 77.134 million yuan, up 51.2% [1]. - For the first nine months of 2025, cumulative tractor exports totaled 135,702 units, a 20.2% increase year-on-year, with a cumulative export value of 665.489 million yuan, up 33.4% [1]. Group 2: Sales and Market Diversification - In the first half of 2025, First Tractor Company sold a total of 42,800 tractor units, with 5,445 units sold overseas, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.37% [2]. - The company has established five major sales regions: Central Asia, Southeast Asia, the Americas, Central and Eastern Europe, and Africa [2]. - The African and Central and Eastern European markets showed remarkable performance, with sales growth exceeding 50%, indicating a successful strategy of diversifying overseas markets to reduce reliance on a single market [2].

Group 1 - Shandong has seen a significant increase in agricultural machinery production and exports in 2023, with a notable rise in port shipment volume and export value [1] - From January to August, the export value of agricultural machinery from Shandong reached 7.6 billion yuan, marking a 100% year-on-year increase [2] - The total number of agricultural machinery exported from Shandong ports during the same period was 8.46 million units, representing a 129.27% year-on-year growth, with a total value exceeding 7.3 billion yuan, up 39.67% [2] Group 2 - The main products exported include sprayers, poultry farming machinery, and lawn mowers, with exports reaching countries such as the United States, Indonesia, India, and Brazil [4] - Shandong Qingdao Port has expanded its shipping routes, adding 14 new container foreign trade routes, covering emerging markets in Southeast Asia and South America [4] - Currently, the Qingdao Port has over 230 container shipping routes, reaching more than 180 countries and regions, and connecting over 700 ports, facilitating a new model of sea-rail intermodal transport [7]

Core Insights - The agricultural machinery export situation is currently positive, with a total import and export value of $9.98 billion in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [1] - Exports reached $9.305 billion, showing a significant increase of 26.5%, while imports fell sharply by 21% to $680 million [1] - The growth in exports reflects an improvement in the quality of the agricultural machinery industry, driven by customized product development to meet the specific needs of different markets [1] Group 1 - The agricultural machinery industry faced severe challenges two years ago, with declining revenues and export volumes due to low demand [2] - Recent policies such as "优机优补" and "更新补贴" have stimulated domestic market upgrades and enhanced international competitiveness, contributing to the current export growth [2] - Despite the positive export growth, there are concerns regarding market distribution, with a lack of penetration in developed countries and a low proportion of high-horsepower tractors in exports [2] Group 2 - The agricultural machinery industry operates as a complete value chain, where upstream and downstream segments influence each other [3] - There is a need for the industry to focus on technological innovation and product quality while being sensitive to the cost concerns of farmers [3] - The competition in agricultural machinery exports is evolving from simple equipment sales to a model that includes "equipment + services + solutions," with a strong emphasis on smart technology [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that agricultural machinery companies in Hunan, particularly in Shuangfeng County, are experiencing significant growth in exports to Africa, with a focus on developing products tailored to local needs [1][3]. - Hunan Nongyou Machinery Group has exported over 3 million RMB worth of products to Africa this year, with a new cassava digging machine expected to enter the market in the second half of the year [1]. - The company is actively engaging with African customers by sending technicians and sales personnel to establish assembly plants, ensuring timely feedback and after-sales service [1]. Group 2 - Hunan Xiangyuan Jinsui Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. has upgraded its products based on market feedback and aims to double its sales this year, having achieved approximately 10 million RMB in trade with Africa from last year to May this year [2]. - Multiple agricultural machinery companies in Shuangfeng have established assembly and processing plants overseas, leading to a continuous increase in foreign orders [3]. - In the first five months of this year, Shuangfeng's agricultural machinery enterprises achieved a production value of 2.53 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, with self-operated exports reaching 132 million RMB, up 30.2%, and exports to Africa exceeding 15 million RMB, a growth of 43.6% [3].