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双焦周报20251222:供需偏弱,双焦低位反弹-20251222
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 07:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market last week saw a slight increase in supply but remained at a low level, with a continuous decline in demand and weak purchasing sentiment. Although coking coal prices rebounded recently due to production restrictions in coal mines and import disturbances, the current supply - demand situation is still weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [4]. - The coke market has a weak supply - demand structure. Recently, due to strict environmental policies, coke enterprises have continued to cut production passively, and overall supply has decreased. However, coke enterprises still have some profits and production enthusiasm is acceptable. Demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The coke price followed the coking coal to have a phased rebound, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal trend. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Market View - **Coking Coal** - **Supply**: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.62% (+1.31%), and the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 75.75 tons (+0.75). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 37.68% (-0.53%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 27.29 tons (-0.63). The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high last week. Overall supply was relatively low [4]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 226.55 tons (-2.65), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (-0.16%), the available days of coking coal in 247 steel mills were 13.02 days (+0.2), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 13.43 days (+0.13). The demand side was mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 272.77 tons (+17.46), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1036.29 tons (-1.01), the steel mill inventory was 804.99 tons (+10.34), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 327.28 tons (-5.09), and the inventory at major ports was 286.17 tons (-21.33). The coking coal mines and steel mills increased inventory, while the coal washing plants and coking plants reduced inventory [4]. - **Coke** - **Supply**: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 16 yuan/ton (-28). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 72.05% (-1.11%), and the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63 tons (-0.98). The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.49 tons (-0.12). Coke supply decreased, but there was still profit space and production enthusiasm was acceptable [5]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 226.55 tons (-2.65), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (-0.16), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 11.72 days (+0.06). The demand for coke weakened [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 91.1 tons (+3.78), the inventory at major ports was 175.65 tons (-5.55), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 633.73 tons (-1.55). The overall social inventory of coke slightly decreased [5]. Part Two: Macroeconomic and Real Estate Tracking - The report lists data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the manufacturing PMI, but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][15][19]. Part Three: Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report includes data on the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices in the country, the basis tracking of coking coal futures contracts (01, 05, 09 contracts), the daily average output and operating rate of clean coal from 523 sample coal mines, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the daily output of hot metal and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills across the country, the inventory of clean coal in 314 sample coal washing plants and 523 sample mines, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills and all - sample independent coking plants, the inventory of imported coking coal at ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills and 230 independent coking plants, and the customs clearance vehicle number of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, but no specific analysis is provided [22][27][33]. Part Four: Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report includes data on the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis tracking of coke futures contracts (01, 05, 09 contracts), the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of coke in all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory at ports, and the available days of coke inventory in 247 steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [62][64][69].