周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 第 一 部 分 市 场 观 点 需求逐步复苏，盘面预计震荡回升 双焦周报 20260302 焦煤基本面 弘业期货研究院 HOLLY FUTURES INSIGHTS 数据来源：Wind、Mysteel、弘业期货研究院 • （1）供给：523家样本矿山开工率68.24%（+19.35%），523家样本矿山精煤日均产量64.9万吨（+19.02），314家 洗煤厂产能利用率22.73%（-9.55%），精煤日均产量16.91万吨（-7.43），节后煤矿复产增加，同比农历年速度 偏慢，后期产量仍将回升。进口煤方面，节后甘其毛都口岸蒙煤通关量恢复至高位，整体供应回升。 • （2）需求：247家钢厂铁水日产量223.28万吨（+2.79），高炉开工率80.22%（+0.09%），钢厂炼焦煤可用天数 12.65天（-0.41），230家独立焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数12.28天（-1.08），钢厂高炉开工率微幅回升，铁水日均产 量有所增加，钢厂炼焦煤可用天数下降，焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数下降，下游以消耗现有库存为主，补库有所延后。 • （3）库存：523家样本矿山 ...

期货研究报告 2026年03月02日 周报 双焦：宏观消息扰动，期价震荡偏多 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周煤焦市场整体呈现供需两弱、价格震荡偏弱格局。供应端，节后国营矿复产 较快，民营矿及洗煤厂未完全复工，蒙煤口岸23日恢复通关，通关量稳步增加，供应宽松对煤价形成压制。 需求端，焦炭平稳运行，钢厂需求复苏偏缓，重大会议前环保管控预期较强，焦钢企业开工提升有限，叠加 地产、基建复苏力度尚不明确，钢材需求释放存在不确定性，制约炼焦煤需求。 展望：春节后煤矿复产速度将加快，但供应高度仍受政策约束，下游消化库存为主，焦煤基本面虽有压 力但整体矛盾暂不突出，现货预计弱稳运行，盘面受资金情绪影响预计宽幅震荡运行。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2063.29 | 2426 ...

品排行国期货 | shenyb@sywggh. con. cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IL | 1 | 1月 | 9月 | 5月 | 9月 | 5月 | 1月 | | | | | | | | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1674.0 | 1391.0 | 1126.0 | 1210.0 | 1838.0 | 1743.5 | 前2日收盘价 | 1634. 5 | 1706.5 | 1365.5 | 1101.5 | 1184. 5 | 1800. 0 | | | | 煮跌 | 37.0 | 25.5 | 25. 5 | 39.5 | 24. 5 | 38.0 | Eil | 煮跌幅 | સ્ક | 2. 22% | 1.87% | 2. 15% | 2.11% | 2. 42% | 2.17% | | 00 | 成交堂 | 725337 | 207 ...

Report Title and Information - Report Title: "Pre - holiday Market Sluggish, Disk Oscillates and Adjusts - Double - coking Weekly Report 20260209" [1] - Author: Zhou Guisheng [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - **For Coking Coal**: Last week, the coking coal market had weak supply and demand, and market sentiment turned weak. With more coal mines shutting down near the Spring Festival, domestic supply tightened. Mongolian coal imports declined slightly. Although the daily average iron - water output on the demand side increased, it basically remained stable, and coke production remained stable. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Overall, pre - holiday market sentiment was weak, coking coal supply and demand were relatively balanced, and it would maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery [3]. - **For Coke**: In terms of supply, most coke enterprises maintained normal production, coke production remained stable, and steel mill coke production increased, with overall supply increasing slightly. On the demand side, terminal steel consumption was still in the off - season, steel mill profits were poor, iron - water production remained stable, and with steel mill coke inventories at a medium - high level, they mainly replenished stocks as needed. Currently, coke supply and demand were relatively balanced, inventory levels remained high, and the disk was expected to follow and maintain low - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery [4]. Summary by Directory Part One: Market Views Coking Coal - **Supply**: The开工率 of 523 sample mines was 86.67% (-2.46%), and the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 75.45 tons (-1.62). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal - washing plants was 35.54% (-1.26%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 26.31 tons (-0.46). The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased slightly last week, and overall supply continued to tighten [3]. - **Demand**: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (+0.6), the blast - furnace开工率 was 79.53% (+0.53%), the available days of coking coal in 247 steel mills were 13.12 days (+0.09), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 16.51 days (+0.79). Downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined [3]. - **Inventory**: The clean - coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 264.65 tons (-2.53), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1302.39 tons (+67.6), the steel mill inventory was 824.2 tons (+9.84), the clean - coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 334.46 tons (+22.89), and the inventory at major ports was 272.76 tons (-13.62). Downstream inventories were relatively high, and purchasing enthusiasm declined [3]. Coke - **Supply**: The average profit per ton of coke for coking plants was - 10 yuan/ton (+45), the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 72.2% (+0.34%), the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63.14 tons (+0.3), and the daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 47.24 tons (+0.23). The profit situation improved, but there was still price pressure [4]. - **Demand**: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (+0.6), the blast - furnace开工率 was 79.53% (+0.53%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.76 days (+0.22). Steel mills maintained on - demand procurement [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 82.74 tons (-1.65), the inventory at major ports was 201.1 tons (-3.04), and the steel mill inventory was 692.38 tons (+14.19). The overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. Part Two: Macroeconomic and Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real - estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 - large - city weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry PMI, and manufacturing PMI, but no specific data analysis is provided [6][10][14][17] Part Three: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on Shanxi Jinzhong Jiexiu medium - sulfur main coking coal purchase price, national mainstream coking coal spot price comparison, coking coal spread tracking, 523 sample coal mines' clean - coal daily output and开工率, 314 sample coal - washing plants' clean - coal daily output and capacity utilization rate, 247 steel mills' daily iron - water output and blast - furnace开工率, inventory data of various parties, and Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicle numbers, but no specific data analysis is provided [20][25][30][35] Part Four: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The report provides data on Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke ex - factory price, coke spot price adjustment schedule, coke spot price comparison, coke contract basis, coking enterprise ton - coke profit, independent coking enterprise coke daily output and capacity utilization rate, inventory data of various parties, and 247 steel mills' coke available days, but no specific data analysis is provided [58][60][62][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core view of coking coal is that it will fluctuate. The spot market transactions are fair, and the mine - end quotes are relatively stable. The supply is expected to shrink before the Spring Festival, and the demand side maintains on - demand procurement. The supply pressure is still high, and it may maintain range - bound fluctuations [4]. - The core view of coke is also that it will fluctuate. The first - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The supply side has stable production, and the demand side has limited driving force. Before the Spring Festival, it mainly follows the weakening of raw coal [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Spot Market - The spot market transactions are fair, with an increasing online auction non - sale rate. Mines are mainly transporting pre - sold orders. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Anze, Shanxi remains at a high of 1,640 yuan/ton, and that of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong is 1,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged week - on - week [10]. - The actual transactions of Mongolian coal are light, with downstream buyers mainly bargaining for lower prices and having a low acceptance of high prices. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is stable at 1,030 - 1,040 yuan/ton [13]. - The import profit of Australian coking coal remains inverted [15]. Spread - The calculated warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian coal is about 1,170 yuan/ton, and that of medium - sulfur coal in Shanxi is about 1,300 yuan/ton. The futures price has risen to a premium range [34]. Supply - The coal mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded to 87.3%, a week - on - week increase of 1%. As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines mainly focus on safe and stable production and will gradually arrange holidays [47]. - The weekly average daily customs clearance of Ganqimaodu Port last week was 1,329 vehicles. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was briefly disturbed this week but has now returned to a high level [4]. Inventory - Upstream mines have few new orders, and downstream buyers maintain on - demand procurement, with relatively sufficient inventory [4]. Coke Spot Market - The first - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi is about 1,520 - 1,535 yuan/ton [88]. - The wet - quenched warehouse - receipt price of coke at the port is 1,600 yuan/ton, and the quasi - first - grade dry - quenched warehouse - receipt price is 1,720 yuan/ton [88]. Spread - Recently, the futures price has rebounded and is at a premium to the dry - quenched warehouse - receipt price. The 5 - 9 month spread fluctuates [93]. Supply - After the price increase, coke enterprises have good profits and stable production [6]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills is 228 tons, basically unchanged week - on - week. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79%, a slight week - on - week increase. Steel mills have poor profits, and the demand driving force is not strong [6][97]. Profit - After the first - round price increase, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, and the current estimated overall profit of coking is about 60 yuan/ton [6]. Inventory - Coke enterprises have smooth shipments, and steel mills have low pig iron output and general procurement enthusiasm for raw materials [6]. Balance Sheet Coking Coal - The production, import, consumption, surplus, and inventory of coking coal from June 2025 to June 2026 are presented in the balance sheet, along with year - on - year changes in production and consumption [131]. Coke - The production, import, export, consumption, surplus, and inventory of coke from June 2025 to June 2026 are presented in the balance sheet, along with year - on - year changes in production and consumption [133].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices remained stable. On the supply side, coal mines in Linfen and Lüliang that were previously shut down or restricted are gradually resuming production, and the overall supply of coking coal is increasing steadily. Due to strict safety inspections recently, most coal mines are maintaining their previous production rhythms, and the supply of the main coal types without obvious inventory is in a tight balance. The coke market continues to be in a game situation, with continuous voices for the first round of price increase for coke, but there is still no clear implementation time [2]. - Looking ahead, the winter storage of downstream coking coal enterprises is still ongoing, and there is an expectation that the production of supply - side coal mines will decline approaching the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has a small upward momentum. However, the upward driving force of the futures market is limited after the previous concentrated trading on the restocking logic, so it is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices remained stable. The supply of coking coal is increasing steadily, and the coke market is in a game over the first - round price increase [2]. - **Future Outlook**: The winter storage of downstream coking coal enterprises continues, and the production of coal mines is expected to decline approaching the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will improve marginally, with a small upward momentum for spot prices, while the futures market is expected to fluctuate [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 2270.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 36.38 million tons (1.63%); the total coke inventory is 939.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.94 million tons (2.06%) [4]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron production of steel mills is 228.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 million tons (0.04%); the daily average coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises is not specifically given in text data but presented in figures. The daily average production of refined coal from mines and coal washing plants is also presented in figures [4]. - **Profit**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises is - 66 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton (1.54%); the profitability rate of 247 steel mills is presented in figures [4]. Market Data Presentation - **Futures Market**: The 5 - day intraday chart of coking coal and coke's main contracts is presented, but no specific data analysis is given [6]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated average price of various coking coal types, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian main coking coal, the aggregated price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke, and the first - class arrival price in Hebei Iron and Steel are presented in figures, with no specific data analysis [8][11]. - **Fundamental Data**: Multiple data on production, inventory, and profit are presented in figures, including the daily average production of refined coal, Mongolian coal customs clearance volume, coking coal and coke inventory and available days, etc. [18][20]

Report Title - **Title**: "补库偏谨慎，盘面弱势震荡 双焦周报 20260126" [1] - **Author**: Zhou Guisheng [1] - **Qualification**: F3036194 (从业资格证), Z0015986 (投资咨询证) [1] Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views **Coking Coal** - Last week, the coking coal market saw both supply and demand increase. Affected by the news of the closure of the Mongolian coal port during the Spring Festival, there was a certain rebound. After the New Year's Day, coal mines resumed normal production, and domestic supply gradually recovered. In terms of imports, Mongolian coal imports remained at a high level in the new year. On the demand side, the daily average iron - making water output increased slightly, but a sudden accident at a steel mill led to safety inspections affecting part of the iron - making water output. Coke production remained stable for the time being, and coking and steel plants still mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Overall, domestic coal mine operations are gradually picking up, imports remain at a high level year - on - year, supply is gradually increasing, while downstream coking and steel enterprises are not making good profits, and their willingness to accept coking coal price increases is decreasing. The market generally maintains a low - level shock [3]. **Coke** - In terms of supply, most coking enterprises currently maintain normal production, coke production remains stable, and steel mill coke production has increased, with overall supply increasing slightly. On the demand side, terminal steel consumption is still in the off - season, steel mill profits are declining, and since steel mill coke inventories are at medium - to - high levels, they mainly replenish inventory according to demand. Overall, the current coke market has both supply and demand increasing, the inventory level is relatively reasonable, market competition has intensified, and it is expected that the futures market will follow and maintain low - level shocks. Attention should be paid to the winter storage and inventory replenishment demand [4]. Summary by Directory **Part One: Market Views** **Coking Coal Supply** - The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 89.33% (+0.86%), the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 77.01 tons (+0.16). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal - washing plants was 37.41% (+0.62%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 27.63 tons (+0.28). The operating rate of mines and the daily average output of mine clean coal continued to rise month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate and clean coal output of coal - washing plants also continued to rise month - on - month. In terms of imported coal, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remained at a high level last week, and overall supply gradually increased [3]. **Coking Coal Demand** - The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel plants was 228.1 tons (+0.09), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.68% (-0.16%), the available days of coking coal in 247 steel plants were 12.88 days (-0.03), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 14.97 days (+0.62). The blast furnace operating rate of steel plants decreased slightly, the daily average output of molten iron increased slightly month - on - month, the available days of coking coal in steel plants decreased slightly, and the available days of coking coal in coking plants increased. There is a certain demand for inventory replenishment in the downstream [3]. **Coking Coal Inventory** - The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 274.35 tons (+1.98), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1177.71 tons (+44.86), the inventory of steel plants was 803.24 tons (+1.04), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 323.23 tons (-1.89), and the inventory of main ports was 289.38 tons (-9.52). Currently, the inventories of coking coal mines, coking plants, and steel plants have accumulated slightly, while those of coal - washing plants and ports have decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure is relatively small [3]. **Coke Supply** - The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 66 yuan/ton (-1). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 72.41% (-0.14%), and the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63.31 tons (-0.14). The daily output of coke from 247 steel plants was 46.9 tons (+0.18). The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants decreased slightly in losses, and steel plants' resistance to the first round of coke price increases increased, putting pressure on coking profits. However, overall production remained stable, mainly because some coking enterprises had smooth shipments, inventory decreased, and production enthusiasm increased [4]. **Coke Demand** - The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel plants was 228.1 tons (+0.09), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.68% (-0.16%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel plants were 12.35 days (+0.38). The daily average output of molten iron increased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory usage cycle of steel plant coke increased, and steel plants mainly purchased coke according to demand [4]. **Coke Inventory** - The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 81.45 tons (-0.36), the inventory of main ports was 196.06 tons (+7.99), and the inventory of 247 steel plants was 661.46 tons (+11.31). The inventory of coking plants decreased slightly, the inventories of steel plants and ports increased slightly, and the overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. **Part Two: Macro - real Estate Tracking** - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real estate new construction, construction, completion area, sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 large - and medium - sized cities' weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry purchasing managers' index (PMI), and manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), but no analysis is provided in the text [6][10][14][18] **Part Three: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking** - The report tracks various data related to coking coal, including purchase prices, spot price comparisons, basis spreads, production, operating rates, inventories, and customs clearance vehicle numbers at ports, but no analysis is provided in the text [21][26][31][35][37][39][42][45][51][54] **Part Four: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking** - The report tracks various data related to coke, including factory prices, spot price adjustment schedules, spot price comparisons, basis spreads, profit per ton, production, capacity utilization rates, inventories, and inventory available days, but no analysis is provided in the text [59][61][63][67][73][76][78][83][88]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market last week saw a slight increase in supply but remained at a low level, with a continuous decline in demand and weak purchasing sentiment. Although coking coal prices rebounded recently due to production restrictions in coal mines and import disturbances, the current supply - demand situation is still weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [4]. - The coke market has a weak supply - demand structure. Recently, due to strict environmental policies, coke enterprises have continued to cut production passively, and overall supply has decreased. However, coke enterprises still have some profits and production enthusiasm is acceptable. Demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The coke price followed the coking coal to have a phased rebound, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal trend. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Market View - **Coking Coal** - **Supply**: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.62% (+1.31%), and the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 75.75 tons (+0.75). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 37.68% (-0.53%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 27.29 tons (-0.63). The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high last week. Overall supply was relatively low [4]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 226.55 tons (-2.65), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (-0.16%), the available days of coking coal in 247 steel mills were 13.02 days (+0.2), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 13.43 days (+0.13). The demand side was mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 272.77 tons (+17.46), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1036.29 tons (-1.01), the steel mill inventory was 804.99 tons (+10.34), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 327.28 tons (-5.09), and the inventory at major ports was 286.17 tons (-21.33). The coking coal mines and steel mills increased inventory, while the coal washing plants and coking plants reduced inventory [4]. - **Coke** - **Supply**: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 16 yuan/ton (-28). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 72.05% (-1.11%), and the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63 tons (-0.98). The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.49 tons (-0.12). Coke supply decreased, but there was still profit space and production enthusiasm was acceptable [5]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 226.55 tons (-2.65), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (-0.16), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 11.72 days (+0.06). The demand for coke weakened [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 91.1 tons (+3.78), the inventory at major ports was 175.65 tons (-5.55), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 633.73 tons (-1.55). The overall social inventory of coke slightly decreased [5]. Part Two: Macroeconomic and Real Estate Tracking - The report lists data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the manufacturing PMI, but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][15][19]. Part Three: Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report includes data on the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices in the country, the basis tracking of coking coal futures contracts (01, 05, 09 contracts), the daily average output and operating rate of clean coal from 523 sample coal mines, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the daily output of hot metal and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills across the country, the inventory of clean coal in 314 sample coal washing plants and 523 sample mines, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills and all - sample independent coking plants, the inventory of imported coking coal at ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills and 230 independent coking plants, and the customs clearance vehicle number of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, but no specific analysis is provided [22][27][33]. Part Four: Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report includes data on the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis tracking of coke futures contracts (01, 05, 09 contracts), the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of coke in all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory at ports, and the available days of coke inventory in 247 steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [62][64][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market last week had a slight increase in supply, a continuous decline in demand, and weak purchasing sentiment. The overall coking coal supply was stable while demand was weak, and it remained weakly operational. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [4]. - The current situation of coke is strong supply and weak demand. The inventory is at a medium level, and the coke price is still under pressure. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Market Views Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 85.59% (-0.42%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 75.37 tons (-1.04). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 36.53% (+0.21%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 27.12 tons (+0.54). The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high, and the overall supply increased slightly [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 247.01 tons (-2.38), the blast furnace operating rate was 80.16% (-0.93%), and the available days of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants decreased. The demand continued to decline, and downstream purchasing willingness was cautious [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 223.92 tons (+23.09), and the inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 321.4 tons (+16.09). The inventory of steel mills and coking plants decreased slightly, and the inventory at major ports increased slightly [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 30 yuan/ton (-16). The capacity utilization rate and daily output of all - sample independent coking plants increased, and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills also increased slightly [5]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills decreased, the blast furnace operating rate continued to decline, and the demand support weakened [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 4.68 tons, the inventory at major ports decreased by 6.1 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased slightly. The overall social inventory of coke decreased slightly [5]. Part 2: Macroeconomic and Real Estate Tracking - The content mainly lists some macro - real estate data, including the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, and the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry and manufacturing industry, but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][14][18] Part 3: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The content includes data on the procurement price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices nationwide, the basis tracking of coking coal futures contracts, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, and the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, etc., to track the supply and demand of coking coal [21][26][33][36] Part 4: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The content includes data on the ex - factory price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the spot price adjustment schedule of coke, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis tracking of coke futures contracts, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of coke in independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, and the coke inventory and available days of inventory in relevant enterprises and ports, etc., to track the supply and demand of coke [62][64][66][70]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term coking coal supply may remain tight due to environmental protection and safety inspections in major production areas. However, the traditional off - season of the downstream steel market and the continuous decline in hot metal production suppress the upward space of raw material prices. The coking coal and coke futures are expected to move within a range next week. The strategy suggests short - term long positions in coking coal and arbitrage opportunities of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The reference range for the coking coal main contract is [1230, 1310], and for the coke main contract is [1710, 1800] [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, black - series commodities declined across the board, while coking coal and coke prices were relatively firm. The weekly decline of the coking coal main contract was 1.24%, and that of the coke main contract was 1.15%. Domestic coal mine production decreased, and inventory was at a near - three - year low. Pre - sale orders were sufficient, and the auction market was active. Steel mill profits were poor, hot metal production declined, but raw material replenishment demand was still resilient. The port clearance volume of imported coking coal increased, and the spot resources were relatively tight. The third round of coke price increase was implemented, and some coke enterprises initiated the fourth round [4] Coking Coal - **Supply** - 523 mines' daily average raw coal output was 186.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4 tons; daily average clean coal output was 73.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01 tons. Sample coal washing plants' daily average output was 27.53 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 36.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [20][23] - From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year. In September, the total import volume was 10.92 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [24][25] - **Inventory and Basis** - The 01 contract basis of coking coal strengthened to a high level in the same period. The 1 - 5 spread strengthened [8][13] - The coking coal auction's weekly listing volume decreased by 0.69 tons, the成交 rate decreased by 0.24%, and the non - transaction rate increased by 0.24% [30] Coke - **Market and Profit** - Coke spot prices remained stable. The national average coking profit increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, still in a loss state. Profits in different regions improved to varying degrees [36][40] - **Supply and Demand** - Coke daily consumption was 105.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96 tons. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [51] - **Inventory and Basis** - Coke total inventory decreased by 12.97 tons week - on - week. Steel mill inventory, independent coke enterprise inventory, and port inventory all decreased. The 01 contract basis of coke strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread situation was not provided in detail [58]