供需偏弱，双焦低位反弹 双焦周报 20251222 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 第 一 部 分 市 场 观 点 焦煤基本面 弘业期货研究院 HOLLY FUTURES INSIGHTS 数据来源：Wind、Mysteel、弘业期货研究院 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 第二部分 宏观地产跟踪 全国固定资产投资额累计同比（%） 弘业期货研究院 • （1）供给：523家样本矿山开工率86.62%（+1.31%），523家样本矿山精煤日均产量75.75万吨（+0.75），314家 洗煤厂产能利用率37.68%（-0.53%），精煤日均产量27.29万吨（-0.63），矿山开工率和矿山精煤日均产量环比 止跌回升，洗煤厂产能利用率和精煤产量小幅回落。进口煤方面，上周甘其毛都口岸蒙煤通关量维持高位，整体 供应相对低位。 • （2）需求：247家钢厂铁水日产量226.55万吨（-2.65），高炉开工率78.47%（-0.16%），钢厂炼焦煤可用天数 13.02天（+0.2），230家独立焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数13.43天（+0.13），钢厂高炉开工率和铁水日均产量环比走 弱， ...

博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 供稳需弱，双焦再度转弱 双焦周报 20251208 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 第 一 部 分 市 场 观 点 焦煤基本面 HOLLY FUTURES INSIGHTS 数据来源：Wind、Mysteel、弘业期货研究院 • （1）供给：523家样本矿山开工率85.59%（-0.42%），523家样本矿山精煤日均产量75.37万吨（-1.04），314家 洗煤厂产能利用率36.53%（+0.21%），精煤日均产量27.12万吨（+0.54），矿山开工率和矿山精煤日均产量环比 回落，洗煤厂产能利用率和精煤产量小幅回升。进口煤方面，上周甘其毛都口岸蒙煤通关量维持高位，整体供应 小幅增加。 • （2）需求：247家钢厂铁水日产量247.01万吨（-2.38），高炉开工率80.16%（-0.93%），钢厂炼焦煤可用天数 12.88天（-0.13），230家独立焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数12.68天（-0.16），铁水日均产量持续下滑，高炉开工率持 续回落，钢厂炼焦煤可用天数微降，焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数下降，需求持续下降，下游采购意愿谨慎。 • ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term coking coal supply may remain tight due to environmental protection and safety inspections in major production areas. However, the traditional off - season of the downstream steel market and the continuous decline in hot metal production suppress the upward space of raw material prices. The coking coal and coke futures are expected to move within a range next week. The strategy suggests short - term long positions in coking coal and arbitrage opportunities of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The reference range for the coking coal main contract is [1230, 1310], and for the coke main contract is [1710, 1800] [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, black - series commodities declined across the board, while coking coal and coke prices were relatively firm. The weekly decline of the coking coal main contract was 1.24%, and that of the coke main contract was 1.15%. Domestic coal mine production decreased, and inventory was at a near - three - year low. Pre - sale orders were sufficient, and the auction market was active. Steel mill profits were poor, hot metal production declined, but raw material replenishment demand was still resilient. The port clearance volume of imported coking coal increased, and the spot resources were relatively tight. The third round of coke price increase was implemented, and some coke enterprises initiated the fourth round [4] Coking Coal - **Supply** - 523 mines' daily average raw coal output was 186.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4 tons; daily average clean coal output was 73.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01 tons. Sample coal washing plants' daily average output was 27.53 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 36.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [20][23] - From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year. In September, the total import volume was 10.92 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [24][25] - **Inventory and Basis** - The 01 contract basis of coking coal strengthened to a high level in the same period. The 1 - 5 spread strengthened [8][13] - The coking coal auction's weekly listing volume decreased by 0.69 tons, the成交 rate decreased by 0.24%, and the non - transaction rate increased by 0.24% [30] Coke - **Market and Profit** - Coke spot prices remained stable. The national average coking profit increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, still in a loss state. Profits in different regions improved to varying degrees [36][40] - **Supply and Demand** - Coke daily consumption was 105.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96 tons. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [51] - **Inventory and Basis** - Coke total inventory decreased by 12.97 tons week - on - week. Steel mill inventory, independent coke enterprise inventory, and port inventory all decreased. The 01 contract basis of coke strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread situation was not provided in detail [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coke, it is expected that in November, both supply and demand will be weak. The pricing logic of the futures market may shift, with the pricing weight of the supply side decreasing and that of the demand side increasing. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy for coke, with the coke index referring to 1620 - 1850 - 1900 [6]. - For coking coal, the demand is expected to decline, and whether domestic coal mine supply can recover remains to be seen. The pricing logic of the futures market may also shift, with the supply - side pricing weight decreasing and the demand - side pricing weight increasing. A range - trading strategy is also recommended for coking coal, with the coking coal index referring to 1130 - 1350 - 1400 [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke Price - In October, coke prices generally showed a strong trend. As of October 29, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1560 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase compared to the end of September [15]. Supply - Currently, coking enterprises are operating at a loss. Due to the weakening of steel mill profits, there is an expectation of price cuts for coke, which will further reduce coking enterprise profits and production enthusiasm. In mid - November, with the start of heating in northern regions, some coking enterprises may face environmental production restrictions, leading to an expected decline in coke production [6][29]. Demand - With the arrival of the off - season for steel demand, the production of molten iron is expected to continue to decline. The current weakening of steel demand and the significant decline in steel mill profitability have also affected steel mill production enthusiasm. Coupled with the possible tightening of environmental production restrictions in November, the production of molten iron is expected to weaken significantly, reducing the demand for coke [6][32]. Import and Export - In September 2025, coke exports were 542,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7400 tons; imports were 14.62 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.22 tons. Some southern steel mills in China imported a large amount of coke from Indonesia in September, leading to a significant increase in coke imports [36]. Inventory - In October, the coke inventories of coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased. Currently, coking enterprise inventories are at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, while steel mill inventories are at a relatively high level. Although there is an expectation of winter stockpiling, the high current inventory level of steel mills limits their space for winter stockpiling. Port inventories are at a relatively high level, which has a certain negative impact on the futures market [6][40]. Basis and Spread - As of October 29, the basis of the coke 01 contract (Rizhao quasi - first - grade converted to warehouse receipts) was - 65, a decrease from - 47 at the end of September; the basis of the 05 contract was - 204, a decrease from - 42 at the end of September; the basis of the 09 contract was - 288, a decrease from - 42 at the end of September. The different - month contracts of coke show a contango structure, indicating a relatively pessimistic market view on the supply - demand pattern of near - month contracts [43][47]. Coking Coal Price - The prices of main coking coal and blended coking coal both showed a strong and fluctuating trend. As of October 29, the aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Lvliang was 1560 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase compared to the end of September [51]. Supply - In October, due to safety reasons, work - face changes in some coal mines, and the shutdown of open - pit coal mines in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, for goaf treatment, coal mine production significantly declined to a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Whether domestic coal mine supply can recover remains uncertain, and some coal mines may slow down production after reaching their annual targets. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to normal levels and is expected to remain high in November [8][55][60]. Demand - With the arrival of the off - season for steel demand, the production of molten iron is expected to decline, steel mill profits are weakening, and coking enterprise profits are under pressure. As a result, coke production is expected to decline, reducing the demand for coking coal. In the long term, if the coke import market expands, it will squeeze the domestic coke market and further weaken the demand for coking coal [64]. Import and Export - In July 2025, coking coal imports were 10.92 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 tons; exports were 11,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2800 tons. The increase in domestic coking coal prices has led to an increase in import profits and a gradual rise in import volumes, which currently have returned to a high level [68]. Inventory - In October, supported by high molten iron production, coking enterprises and steel mills continued to replenish their coking coal inventories, which are currently at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in previous years. Coal mine inventories have significantly decreased to a low level compared to the same period in previous years, while port inventories have changed little and are at a medium level. The current inventory structure has no major contradictions, but due to the expected decline in demand, the willingness of coking enterprises and steel mills to replenish inventories may decline [89]. Basis and Spread - As of October 29, the basis of the coking coal 01 contract (Meng 5 coking coal in Tangshan converted to warehouse receipts) was - 49, a decrease from - 123 at the end of September; the basis of the 05 contract was - 117, a decrease from - 104 at the end of September; the basis of the 09 contract was - 183, a decrease from - 83 at the end of September. The different - month contracts of coking coal show a contango structure, indicating a relatively pessimistic market view on the supply - demand pattern of near - month contracts [97][101].

Report Title - Coal Coke Weekly Report 20250922 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - The double - coking coal (coke and coking coal) is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term. Although the supply side of coal mines has recovered, there are still disturbances. High hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises provide strong support for raw material demand. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in coking coal [4][9] Summary by Directory 1. Coke Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - The futures price soared last week and is expected to remain strong before the holiday. The second - round spot price cut has been implemented and is currently stable. The freight for coke transportation remained stable last week [7][10][17] 1.2 Supply - The impact of coking production restrictions in Tangshan is limited, and the coke supply remains high and stable. As of September 19, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises nationwide was 75.87%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 66.72 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 86.03%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 46.65 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons [26][28][33] 1.3 Demand - The hot metal production increased slightly, and downstream enterprises started pre - holiday restocking. Speculative sentiment improved slightly, export profit changed little, and the daily trading volume of building materials in the spot market was lower than the same period in previous years. As of September 19, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.98%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.47 tons; the steel mill profit rate was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points [34][36][39] 1.4 Inventory - Downstream enterprises restocked while upstream enterprises reduced inventory, and the total inventory increased. As of September 19, the total coke inventory increased by 8.94 tons to 9.1518 million tons. Among them, the port inventory decreased by 1.01 tons to 2.041 million tons; the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 1.43 tons to 664,100 tons; the inventory of 247 sample steel mills increased by 11.38 tons to 6.4467 million tons [40][42][45] 1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises was compressed, and the coke futures profit weakened slightly. The profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was - 17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan from the previous week. The futures profit of coke 01 decreased by 0.75 yuan/ton to 136.90 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [51][53] 1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 01 increased, and the 1 - 5 spread continued to weaken. The basis of coke 01 decreased by 61.3 to - 157.16 compared with the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 21 to - 102 [55][57] 2. Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - The futures price soared last week and is expected to remain strong before the holiday. The spot price is running strongly. Some coking coal prices in different regions showed an upward trend last week [60][63] 2.2 Supply - The supply from production areas continued to recover, the output of coal washing plants increased, and the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the 288 port remained high. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 72.64 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 7.54%. As of September 19, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 37.44%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average output of clean coal was 268,000 tons, an increase of 119,000 tons [66][72][74] 2.3 Inventory - Independent coking enterprises increased inventory while coal mines reduced inventory, and the total inventory increased. As of September 19, the total coking coal inventory increased by 666,000 tons to 25.501 million tons. Among them, the inventory of mining enterprises decreased by 217,300 tons to 2.3279 million tons; the port inventory increased by 110,800 tons to 2.8219 million tons; the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 237,700 tons to 3.0437 million tons; the inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 568,700 tons to 9.4041 million tons; the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased by 33,900 tons to 7.9034 million tons [75][77][80] 2.4 Valuation - The premium of coking coal 01 increased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened. The basis of coking coal 01 decreased by 87.5 to - 101 compared with the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 21 to - 102 [99][101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - In June, coking coal stopped falling and rebounded, driving the black market to rebound from a low level. By the end of June, coke 09 rose 6.89% to close at 1404, and coking coal 09 rose 11.26% to close at 825 [6][12]. - Looking ahead to July, macro - level factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting in July will still greatly affect the market. At the industrial level, after the end of the safety production month, coal mines are expected to gradually resume production, and coke supply is expected to recover to some extent. However, July and August are off - peak demand seasons, and terminal demand is under greater pressure to decline, with molten iron still expected to decline, but at a relatively slow rate. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are likely to weaken again in July, and the upward space of the futures market is expected to be limited, possibly entering a volatile and weakening market again. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [6][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Monthly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - In June, coke futures rebounded from a low level, but are likely to weaken again in July. Spot prices had the third and fourth rounds of price cuts in June, and there are expectations of two rounds of price increases in July. The prices of coke in various regions and ports generally decreased in June [10][13][14]. - The freight for coke transportation fluctuated slightly in June [16]. 3.1.2 Supply - In June, coke enterprises' supply decreased due to environmental protection pressure. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coke enterprises decreased slightly. As of June 30, the capacity utilization rate of the national independent coke enterprise full - sample was 73.35%, and the daily coke output was 64.51 tons. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of 247 sample steel mills' coking plants increased slightly [23][25][30]. 3.1.3 Demand - Molten iron production first decreased and then increased in June, remaining at a high level, and is expected to decline at a slow rate in the future. As of June 30, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.82%, the capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, and the daily molten iron output was 242.29 tons [31][33]. - Speculative sentiment improved, export profits rebounded slightly, and building material transactions remained at a low level [34][36]. 3.1.4 Inventory - In June, inventory reduction was the main trend in all links, and the total inventory decreased. As of June 30, the total coke inventory was 940.87 tons, including 200.09 tons in ports [37][39]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profit per ton of coke was compressed, and the coke futures market profit declined. As of June 30, the profit per ton of 30 independent coke enterprises was - 46 yuan, and the futures market profit of coke 09 decreased by 32.7 yuan/ton to 331.5 yuan/ton [47][49]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. As of June 30, the basis of coke 09 was - 145.24, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38.5 [51][53]. 3.2 Coking Coal Monthly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - In June, coking coal futures rebounded from a low level, but are likely to weaken again in July. Spot prices mainly weakened in June, and some coal types rebounded slightly recently [56][59]. 3.2.2 Supply - In June, many coal mines in the production areas stopped or reduced production. It is expected that they will gradually resume production in July, but it will take time to fully return to normal production. The operating rate of coal washing plants decreased in June. As of June 30, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 59.1%, and the daily output of clean coal was 50.15 tons. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a medium level, and the year - on - year decline in coking coal imports in the first five months widened [62][67][70]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In June, downstream coking plants and steel mills replenished their inventories moderately in the late month, and the overall inventory decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased. As of June 30, the total coking coal inventory was 2570.74 tons [71][73]. 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 had a slight premium, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened. As of June 30, the basis of coking coal 09 was - 25, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 36 [93][95].