Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term coking coal supply may remain tight due to environmental protection and safety inspections in major production areas. However, the traditional off - season of the downstream steel market and the continuous decline in hot metal production suppress the upward space of raw material prices. The coking coal and coke futures are expected to move within a range next week. The strategy suggests short - term long positions in coking coal and arbitrage opportunities of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The reference range for the coking coal main contract is [1230, 1310], and for the coke main contract is [1710, 1800] [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, black - series commodities declined across the board, while coking coal and coke prices were relatively firm. The weekly decline of the coking coal main contract was 1.24%, and that of the coke main contract was 1.15%. Domestic coal mine production decreased, and inventory was at a near - three - year low. Pre - sale orders were sufficient, and the auction market was active. Steel mill profits were poor, hot metal production declined, but raw material replenishment demand was still resilient. The port clearance volume of imported coking coal increased, and the spot resources were relatively tight. The third round of coke price increase was implemented, and some coke enterprises initiated the fourth round [4] Coking Coal - **Supply** - 523 mines' daily average raw coal output was 186.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4 tons; daily average clean coal output was 73.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01 tons. Sample coal washing plants' daily average output was 27.53 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 36.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [20][23] - From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year. In September, the total import volume was 10.92 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [24][25] - **Inventory and Basis** - The 01 contract basis of coking coal strengthened to a high level in the same period. The 1 - 5 spread strengthened [8][13] - The coking coal auction's weekly listing volume decreased by 0.69 tons, the成交 rate decreased by 0.24%, and the non - transaction rate increased by 0.24% [30] Coke - **Market and Profit** - Coke spot prices remained stable. The national average coking profit increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, still in a loss state. Profits in different regions improved to varying degrees [36][40] - **Supply and Demand** - Coke daily consumption was 105.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96 tons. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [51] - **Inventory and Basis** - Coke total inventory decreased by 12.97 tons week - on - week. Steel mill inventory, independent coke enterprise inventory, and port inventory all decreased. The 01 contract basis of coke strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread situation was not provided in detail [58]

www.mkqh.com 铁水产量下行，关注煤矿供应情况 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE 投研服务中心——符佳敏 2025.11.04 Maike 迈科期货 @2019 Maike Futures 焦炭 铁水产量回落，焦炭产量预计下行 - 供应端,目前焦企利润为负,由于钢厂利润走弱,后续面临提降预期,焦企利 润预计将下滑,焦企生产积极性将走弱。11月中旬北方地区开始供暖,部分 地区焦企可能面临环保限产影响，焦炭产量预计将下滑。需求端,钢材需求淡 季到来，铁水产量预计将继续回落。当前钢材需求回落，钢厂盈利率显著走弱， 这亦影响钢厂生产积极性。叠加11月份环保限产可能加严，铁水产量预计将 显著走弱。库存端，10月份焦企和钢厂焦炭库存均有所下滑，当前焦企库存 处于历年同期低位水平，钢厂焦炭库存处于历年同期偏高水平，后续预计将季 节性下滑，虽然后续有一定冬储预期，但当前钢厂库存水平较高，预计钢厂对 焦炭冬储的空间有限。港口库存处于偏高水平，这将对盘面有一定利空影响。 总体来看,预计11月份焦炭供需双弱,关注盘面定价逻辑切换,可能供应端 定价权重降低需求 ...

下游节前备货启动，双焦预计偏强运行 煤焦周度报告 20250922 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net 1.1 价格：上周盘面大幅拉涨，节前预计维持偏强运行 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1月2日 1月11 日 1月20 日 1月29 日 2月7日 2月16 日 2月25 日 3月5日 3月14 日 3月23 日 4月1日 4月11 日 4月20 日 4月29 日 5月11 日 5月20 日 5月29 日 6月7日 6月16 日 6月25 日 7月4日 7月13 日 7月22 日 7月31 日 8月9日 8月18 日 8月27 日 9月5日 9月14 日 9月23 日 10 月9日 10 月18 日 10 月27 日 11 月5日 11 月14 日 11 月23 日 12 月2日 12 月11 日 12 月20 日 12 月29 日 焦炭主力合约季节性 2025年 2024年 2023年 2022年 2021年 数据来源：东方财富行情软件，Wind，正信期货 | 报告主要观点 | ...

7月基本面料再度转弱， 双焦反弹恐难持续 煤焦月度报告 20250701 正信期货研究院 黑色小组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 6月期货低位反弹，7月恐再走弱；现货第三轮、第四轮提降落地，7月已有两轮提涨预期 | | | 供给 | 焦企因环保压力，供应有所下滑 | | | 需求 | 铁水先降后增，维持高位，后续预计下滑速率较慢；投机情绪有所好转，出口利润小幅回升，建材成交维持低位 | | | 库存 | 全环节降库为主，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 吨焦盈利压缩，焦炭盘面利润回落 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水扩大，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 焦炭方面，四轮提降落地，原料煤企稳部分反弹，焦企盈利压缩，供应维持小幅缩减状态。铁水微增，部分钢厂开始恢复正 常采购节奏，多数刚需采购；部分投机需求进场分流货源。 | | | 价格 供应 | 6月期货低位反弹，7月恐再走弱；现货走弱为主，近期部分煤种小幅反弹 6月产地煤矿停 ...