净经营租赁收益率(NLY)

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中银航空租赁(02588):中银航空租赁(2588HK):上游产能修复,NLY改善
HTSC· 2025-08-22 02:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's net profit after tax for 1H25 was USD 342 million, a year-on-year increase of 20%, aligning closely with Bloomberg's consensus estimate of USD 337 million [1] - The aviation leasing industry is gradually improving, with aircraft manufacturers' production capacity starting to recover, leading to a 12% year-on-year increase in total aircraft deliveries [2] - The company is expected to benefit from rising rental prices and market values due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the aircraft leasing market [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's capital expenditure increased by 150% year-on-year to USD 1.9 billion, the highest semi-annual figure since 2020 [3] - The net lease yield (NLY) improved by 50 basis points year-on-year to 7.5%, driven by the sale of older, low-yield aircraft and the introduction of higher-yield new models [4] Market Outlook - The global demand for air travel is expected to continue recovering, with IATA projecting a 5.8% increase in global RPK for 2025, supporting the leasing market [2] - The report anticipates that the total value of new aircraft deliveries globally will reach USD 100 billion in 2025, the highest since 2019 [2] Capital Expenditure and Growth - The company has a total aircraft order reserve of 351 aircraft, with committed capital expenditure reaching USD 20 billion [3] - The company aims to achieve an asset scale growth target of USD 40 billion by 2030 [3] Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts the forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to USD 710 million, USD 800 million, and USD 830 million respectively, with target price raised to HKD 85 [5][6]