Core Viewpoint - The essence of investment is to buy the future cash flow generation ability of companies, with Return on Equity (ROE) being a critical indicator of this ability [2][3]. Group 1: Importance of ROE - ROE reflects how much net profit shareholders earn for every unit of equity invested, making it a more reliable measure of profitability than earnings per share [3][4]. - High ROE is preferred, and it should ideally be higher than competitors to indicate better management performance [3][4]. - Long-term evaluation of ROE is essential, with a recommended assessment period of at least five years to gauge a company's true performance [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Performance and Examples - Historical data shows that only 6 out of 1000 major U.S. companies had an ROE exceeding 30% over ten years, with 25 companies maintaining an average ROE of 20% without dipping below 15% in any year [4]. - Companies with high ROE often share common traits: low leverage and a focus on core business, leading to sustainable competitive advantages [5][9]. - A statistical analysis of companies with high ROE indicates that 97% of the time, they achieve over 10% annualized returns, with 55% achieving over 20% [8][10]. Group 3: Resilience in Adversity - The white liquor industry has faced numerous crises over the past 30 years, yet companies like Moutai and Wuliangye have managed to capture more market share during downturns [9][10]. - Despite short-term challenges, long-term investments in high ROE companies tend to yield positive returns, as evidenced by historical performance [11][12]. - Current market conditions show that even with low valuations, the ROE of leading companies in the industry remains strong, indicating sustained competitive strength [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the complexity of understanding bank profitability, highlighting that traditional metrics like interest margin, cost of expenses, and asset impairment losses do not provide a complete picture of a bank's true earning capacity [4][20][22]. Group 1: Understanding Bank Profitability - The profitability of banks cannot be solely determined by analyzing interest margins and impairment losses, as these metrics do not allow for effective peer comparison [4][22]. - For example, Bank A with a 2.5% interest margin and Bank B with a 2% interest margin can both achieve the same net profit of 1%, indicating that higher interest margins do not necessarily equate to better profitability [5][6][7]. - The article discusses the importance of understanding the underlying business model and risk management strategies of banks, particularly in the context of small and micro loans [14][18][19]. Group 2: Risk and Business Models - The article presents a case where high-interest loans can be associated with low risk, particularly in regions with strong micro-enterprise demand, suggesting that local knowledge can mitigate risks [11][13]. - It argues that small banks are better positioned to manage small and micro loans due to their flexibility and closer ties to local businesses [18][19]. - The discussion includes the notion that a bank's risk profile cannot be judged solely on its loan portfolio size or interest margins; rather, it requires a deeper analysis of the specific business practices and regional economic conditions [60][66]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - The article introduces the concept of Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) as critical metrics for evaluating bank performance, with ROA being influenced by interest margin, cost of expenses, and impairment losses [25][31][48]. - A comparison of two banks, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Hangzhou Bank, reveals that despite ICBC having a larger asset base, Hangzhou Bank demonstrates a higher ROA and ROE due to its effective use of leverage [34][48][55]. - The article concludes that Hangzhou Bank's higher valuation should be reflected in its price-to-book (PB) ratio compared to ICBC, suggesting that current market valuations may not accurately represent the banks' underlying performance [76][78].

"对普通投资者而言，要把握长线牛股的机会，关键在于培养敏锐的商业眼光。"陈嘉禾指出，投资者需 要深入研究企业的商业模式、行业前景、竞争优势等，识别出具有长期增长潜力的优质公司。他强 调，"不能仅凭一时的市场热点或主观臆断进行投资，否则可能会因对企业的理解不够深入而遭受损 失。" 深圳市君子乾乾投资董事长兼投资总监程成接受证券时报·数据宝记者采访时表示，市值变动本质上是 企业盈利能力的动态映射。高成长高估值的背后也有风险，如果企业的成长性承压，将会迎来每股收益 （EPS）和估值的双重损失。最好的风控就是选择最优秀的企业：要保证企业管理层的诚实与尽职，具 备打造成功组织和产品，并不断学习成长的能力；当前的产品竞争力要强且潜在的市场空间够大；在产 业链的话语权强；业绩增长的过程中有充分的现金流验证，不陷入赚了钱全部用来投产的庞氏成长困 局。 （文章来源：证券时报） "若想成为长线牛股，不能仅依赖短期的估值抬升，而应注重提升自身的业务能力，确保业务的可持续 性，实现长期稳定的净资产回报率。这意味着企业需要在技术创新、产品质量、市场拓展、管理效率等 方面不断努力，打造核心竞争力，以支撑其长期的优秀表现。"北京九圜青泉科 ...

中国股市正迎来微妙转折点，释放积极信号。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利最新研究报告《中国股市策略2025年中期展望：阴霾中的金色曙光》指出，尽管宏观经济挑战仍然存在，但中国股市正在 展现出结构性改善迹象。 | | | Total return in USD | | 24 Sep 2024 - Now | | 2025 YTD | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024 | 24 Sep 2024 - Now | 2025 YTD | Standard deviation (Annualized) | Sharpe ratio (Annualized) | Standard deviation (Annualized) | Sharpe ratio (Annualized) | | MSCI China | 16% | 29% | 15% | 33% | 0.74 | 32% | 0.32 | | CSI 300 | 11% | 19% | 0% | 25% | 0.67 | 17% | -0.09 | | Hang Seng | ...

银行股的想象力 20250519 摘要 • 美国基金金融股配置与标普 500 指数基本一致，分红型蓝筹基金超配，成 长型基金低配。直接将美国数据推导至国内不严谨，需考虑两国市场差异 和居民投资行为。 • 国内居民投资行为受房价下跌影响，更倾向于遵循夏普比率进行资产配置， 长期稳健的投资模式是推动国内公募基金持仓比例变化的重要力量。 • 房地产市场因其相对稳定的收益和较低的回撤风险吸引了大量投资者，而 信托等非标产品吸引力下降，资金寻求新的配置机会，ETF 或被动型产品 填补风险收益比空缺。 • 被动型投资增加也能影响银行股及非银金融股市值占比，长期来看，即使 短期内有波折，这一逻辑仍然成立，且不同基准调整不影响长期趋势。 • 银行股 PB 小于 1，意味着未来收益小于持有机会成本。PB 从 0.5 升至 0.7，是由于宏观背景下其他行业警惕度下降或债券市场收益率走低，持有 银行股机会成本减少。 • 净资产收益率（ROE）下降速度小于持有股票的机会成本下降速度，解释 了当前 ROE 为 0.7 而之前为 0.5 的变化，表明银行股并未被高估。 美国公募基金在金融股的配置方面表现出显著的超配趋势。根据过去十年的数 ...

以下文章来源于长线是金11 ，作者长线是金11 长线是金11 . 记录本人的投资心得，希望能对大家有所帮助 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： ：长线是金11 来源：雪球 前些天，写关于公牛集团的年报评析文章时，有位网友提出公牛集团的成长性比过去下降了不 少，这可能会导致估值体系重新构建，当前的21倍PE值仍存在着一定下调要求。 关于这一观点，我的看法是不要仅盯着当下的增长数据（2024年年报公牛的营收增长7.24%，扣 非净利润增长1.04%；2025年一季度营收增长3.14%，扣非净利润增长4.56%），也应看到上市以 来公牛高达28.17%的ROE均值。 西班牙著名投资人帕拉梅斯在《长期投资》一书中，给估值划分了三道门槛： 3、而对于少数护城河坚固且极为优秀的公司，可以适当将出价提升至15-20倍PE。 何为极为优秀的公司呢？有一个最简单的特征，就是这些公司均拥有极高的长期股权回报率，即 长期高ROE值。例如国内壁垒深厚、最顶级的好公司茅台、美的、腾讯基本都是如此，ROE长期 都保持在20%之上。（茅台在30%以上） 公牛大概也可以属于此列，该公 ...

智通财经5月3日讯（记者 夏淑媛） 截至5月3日，除华夏久盈资产外，34家保险资管公司披露2024年财报。 从具体公司来看，国寿资产、泰康资产位居市场第一、第二。其中，国寿资产实现营业收入67.03亿元，同比增长27.5%；泰康资产营业收入62.82亿元，同 比增长23.11%。 平安资产营业收入则罕见跌出市场前三，被国寿投资超越。2024年，国寿投资营业收入42.33亿元，同比增长28.22%；平安资产营业收入40.45亿元，同比下 滑-5.39%。 排名第5-11位的公司依次为太保资产、太平资产、华泰资产、人保资产、新华资产、长江养老、阳光资产，7家公司营业收入均在10亿元以上。 据智通财经记者统计，2024年，34家公司合计实现营业收入416亿元，同比增长14.41%；合计净利润185.07亿元，同比增长17.4%。整体来看，2024年保险资 管公司业绩普涨，共有21家机构营收、净利润双增，仅有9家两项指标呈现下滑。 此外，34家公司首尾业绩分化，头部效应显著。其中，国寿资产、泰康资产、平安资产净利润均超过20亿元，持续位居市场前三，国寿投资以15.49亿元跻 身第四，其他公司净利润均低于10亿元；34 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Operating earnings per diluted share were $0.79, up 52%, and $0.74, up 42% excluding significant items [5][24] - Book value per diluted share, excluding AOCI, was $37.03, up 6% [7] - Capital and liquidity remain well above target levels after returning $117 million to shareholders [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer division saw annuity collected premiums up 12%, account values up 7%, and premium per policy up 19% [10] - Health NAP was up 9%, with Medicare Supplement NAP up 24% and Medicare Advantage policies up 42% [13][14] - Worksite insurance sales were up 11%, with critical illness insurance up 37% and life insurance up 17% [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - New money rates exceeded 6% for nine consecutive quarters [6] - Total investment income was up 16% for the quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth [28] - The market value of invested assets grew 11% in the quarter [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its business model for sustained profitable growth and drive ROE expansion [8] - Focus on reaching the underserved middle-income market remains a key differentiator [9] - Introduction of new products like Optimize Clear to enhance service offerings [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges deteriorating visibility into macroeconomic drivers but expresses confidence in navigating volatility [7][31] - The company reaffirms its full-year guidance despite a more volatile environment [30] - Long-term commitment to improving run rate ROE by 150 basis points from 2025 to 2027 [31] Other Important Information - The company plans to launch a new series of investor briefings starting in June [34] - Fee income was adversely impacted by ASC 606 revenue recognition accounting [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: On buybacks, will the company lean into buybacks in the current macro environment? - Management indicated a willingness to continue elevated buyback levels due to strong cash flow [37] Question: Can you explain the GAAP accounting revenue recognition for Medicare Advantage? - Management provided details on how revenue recognition differs from cash flow, emphasizing the impact of sales mix on fee income [39][40] Question: What is the outlook for PAC in the Consumer division? - Management expects continued growth in PAC, despite potential quarter-to-quarter fluctuations [66] Question: How does the company view the demand for insurance products in a recession? - Management believes demand for products will remain strong due to demographic trends, despite potential economic downturns [70][71] Question: What are the implications of potential shifts from Medicare Advantage to Medicare Supplement? - Management expressed confidence that any shifts would not materially impact the business, as they can benefit from both product lines [76] Question: Can you elaborate on the geographic expansion in the worksite division? - Management confirmed ongoing disciplined geographic expansion contributing to sales growth [85]

以下文章来源于数据宝 ，作者宁墨 数据宝 . 数据宝——证券时报智能原创新媒体，中国股市大数据新媒体领先品牌，依托证券时报财经数据库和证监会 指定信息披露媒体的权威信息，让您用手机也能从海量数据中获得有用的决策信息支持，数据是个宝，炒股 少烦恼！ 近日，美国宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"，全球资本市场剧烈震荡。在外部风险加剧的背景下，资金会倾 向于流向更具稳定性和盈利能力的资产，A股中长期维持高净资产收益率的公司，正是这类优质企业的代表。 7股近10年净资产收益率均超15% 净资产收益率（ROE）作为衡量企业盈利能力的核心指标，备受投资大佬青睐。巴菲特曾提出："如果非要我用一个 指标进行选股，我会选择ROE，那些ROE能常年持续稳定在20%以上的公司都是好公司，投资者应当考虑买入。" 一般来说，长期维持高ROE的企业，往往具备稳健的经营策略和持续的盈利水平，并且拥有强大的竞争优势，涵盖 出色的管理团队、强大的专利技术、特许经营权、行业先发优势或规模优势，以及优秀的团队和创新能力等特征。 据证券时报·数据宝统计，截至4月6日，在2015年前上市且披露2024年年报的A股公司中，有7股去年境外收入占比低 于1 ...

丰田2024财年（截至2025年3月）的合并纯利润的公司预期为4.52万亿日元。在日本企业中遥遥 领先，是排名第二的三菱UFJ金融集团（1.75万亿日元）的2.6倍。 丰田2024年因汽车认证违规而动摇。社长佐藤恒治认为，"2024财年要巩固基础"，因此让生产保 持余力。丰田上调了包括供应商在内的工资，劳务费成为营业利润同比减少5100亿日元的主要原 因。此外，纯电动汽车（EV）和软件的费用也将增加3200亿日元。尽管如此，预计净利润仅减 少9%，营业利润率将保持在10%左右。 丰厚利润的源泉在于"丰田生产方式"，这种方式以"质优价廉"为口号，不断进行着切实的改进。该 公司根据世界各地的需求，推出燃效高、耐用性强的汽车。同时，还获取了重视价格不易下跌这 一资产价值的客户，成长为世界最大的汽车企业。 另一方面，预期PER却没有起色。随着美国特斯拉（85倍）和中国比亚迪（25倍）等纯电动汽车 制造商的崛起，传统汽车厂商被认为是低PER的代表性企业。考虑到这一点，目前丰田表现低 迷，在大盘股指数"Topix Core 30"中仅次于排名垫底的本田（6.7倍）。远远低于日经平均股价指 数的15倍，在同行业中甚至低于铃 ...