Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the global debt issue will present three main solutions: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-based debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-based debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-based debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1] Group 1: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures despite ongoing weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI [1] - The net asset return on equity (ROE) for non-financial enterprises in the A-share market has stabilized over several quarters, with profits from eight advanced manufacturing industries now accounting for 38% of total profits [1] - Companies with overseas operations have seen their overseas revenue share increase to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points, which may drive a rebound in overall A-share ROE after stabilization [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Investment focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear prosperity trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and limited short-term supply release [1] - Other sectors to consider include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1] - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1]

日本股市的PER多年来一直难以突破16倍这一"天花板"。迄今为止，PER从未成为推高日本股市的因 素。有经济师分析了雷曼危机后日美欧股价指数的上涨动因，结果显示美欧的PER变化占比超过3成以 上，而日本仅为1成…… 日经平均股指在5万点左右的历史性高位迎来了2025年底。股市持续上涨的焦点在于能否进 一步提高市场的"预期值"。仍有很多个股的PER（市盈率，反映投资者对企业的增长预期） 偏低。2026年的课题是企业能否就业绩和资本效率提出改善路径，激发市场对股价进一步上 涨的期待。 不过，如果后续的复苏前景更加明朗，其估值偏低的优势将更加突出。SCREEN将在截至 2026财年（截至2027年3月）的三年内，将营业现金流和手头资金等3600亿日元总资金的8 成用于增长性投资。以2032财年（截至2033年3月）实现销售额超过1万亿日元、营业利润 率超过20%为目标，在加快投资步伐的同时，根据投资的进展情况等，灵活实施股票回购。 日本股市的PER多年来一直难以突破16倍这一"天花板"。PER以东证股价指数（TOPIX）未 来12个月利润预期为基础计算得出，2008年发生雷曼危机以后，除了新冠疫情导致利润骤降 的特 ...

8 December 2025 | 2:12PM HKT Equity Research CHINA BROKERS & ASSET MANAGERS Regulator proposes easing leverage for 'high-quality brokers'; GFS/CICC well-placed for ROE upside Recently, the CSRC (China Securities Regulatory Commission) proposed to optimize evaluation metrics for 'high-quality institutions' (see here), moderately expanding their capital space and leverage ceilings, and increasing capital utilization efficiency. We believe this will help brokers fulfilling the criteria (yet to be provided by t ...

Core Insights - The "19th Shenzhen International Financial Expo and 2025 China Financial Institutions Annual Conference" highlighted challenges and opportunities in the banking sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly focusing on declining Return on Equity (ROE) and increasing Matthew Effect [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The banking industry is expected to face continuous decline in ROE and intensified competition during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - The major challenges include the need to adapt to changing market conditions and the pressure to maintain profitability [1] Group 2: Growth Opportunities - Significant growth opportunities are identified in two main areas: corporate business focusing on industrial finance and the digital transformation of retail banking [1] - Industrial finance clients are characterized by long supply chains, high transaction volumes, and substantial deposit retention, making them a crucial growth point for banks [1] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Banks are advised to focus on "strong headquarters and strong brain," emphasizing the need for headquarters to take the lead in industry insights, operational strategy design, process supervision, marketing support, and tool development [1] - The ability to seize industrial finance opportunities and achieve a qualitative transformation in retail digital operations will determine banks' positioning in a differentiated market over the next five years [1]

Core Insights - The report focuses on the evolution and optimization of profitability evaluation indicators, particularly the Return on Equity (ROE) within the PB-ROE framework, utilizing DuPont analysis to dissect the structure and potential issues of the ROE metric [1][4] - The report introduces a comprehensive profitability factor by optimizing the indicator system based on the analysis of ROE, aiming to enhance the dual optimization of the PB-ROE strategy framework in both valuation and profitability aspects [1][4] Section Summaries 1. In-depth Exploration of ROE and Profitability Styles - The PB-ROE strategy combines valuation levels with shareholder return rates, reflecting a company's ability to generate profits from shareholder capital, which directly influences net asset growth [10][14] - The relationship between ROE and GDP indicates that listed companies, as a significant part of the economy, have shown substantial growth in revenue, with the total revenue of A-share companies exceeding 72 trillion yuan in 2024, compared to 3.37 trillion yuan in 2004 [14][15] - ROE is categorized under quality style in investment factors, reflecting a company's financial health, profitability, reliability, and long-term growth potential [22][26] 2. ROE and DuPont Analysis - ROE is tested using both quarterly and TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) metrics, with the quarterly ROE factor showing a higher average Rank IC of 4.06% compared to 2.78% for TTM [28][29] - Historical high ROE stocks tend to underperform in future price performance, while portfolios constructed based on future ROE show significant excess returns, indicating the importance of ROE stability [33][34] - DuPont analysis breaks down ROE into three components: net profit margin, total asset turnover, and equity multiplier, providing a comprehensive assessment of a company's profitability, operational efficiency, and leverage [42][46] 3. ROE De-leveraging Analysis - The report discusses the linear separation of leverage factors from ROE, highlighting the economic relationship between ROA and ROE, and the limitations of ROA as a profitability measure [3][15] - The introduction of RONOA (Return on Net Operating Assets) and FCFFIC (Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital) aims to provide more accurate profitability assessments by excluding non-core operating activities and mitigating earnings management risks [4][6] 4. Comprehensive Profitability Factor - The integration of stable ROE, stable ROIC, stable RONOA, and FCFFIC forms a comprehensive profitability factor, enhancing the performance of the PB-ROE strategy [4][6] - The active quantitative stock selection strategy based on the PB-ROE framework has achieved an annualized return of 20.42% since 2010, significantly outperforming benchmarks like the CSI 800 [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei average stock index has surpassed the 50,000 mark for the first time, marking a historic turning point in Japan's economic structure towards inflation and a shift in stock valuation from "perennially undervalued stocks" to "growth stocks" [2][4][11]. Group 1: Economic Transition - The transition from a deflationary economy to an inflationary one began approximately three years ago when price increases exceeded 3% [6]. - The governance reforms initiated about a decade ago are starting to show positive effects, with the average Return on Equity (ROE) for major listed companies rising to around 9%, surpassing the capital cost of approximately 8% [7][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expectation of corporate performance growth through price increases and continuous wage hikes is changing the perception of the Japanese stock market [2][8]. - The stock market is now seen as a "normal country" where stock prices rise in tandem with inflation, similar to major overseas economies [8]. Group 3: Conditions for Sustained Growth - Three key conditions are necessary for the Nikkei average to stabilize above 50,000: 1. Effective measures to boost prices, as current inflation is largely cost-push, with real wage growth remaining negative [13]. 2. Government investment to enhance the competitiveness of key industries, with a focus on sectors like semiconductors and energy [13]. 3. Consideration of market interest rates, as rising rates could jeopardize the stability of the Nikkei index [14].

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved a plan to utilize up to 1 billion yuan of idle funds for low-risk financial management to enhance fund efficiency and increase investment returns [1][4]. Fund Management Plan Key Points - The fund management plan is valid for 12 months from the board's approval date, allowing for rolling use within the limit [2]. - Investment will focus on low-risk, stable products such as time deposits, large certificates of deposit, and agreed deposits, avoiding high-risk investments like stocks and derivatives [2]. - The management team is authorized to make decisions and sign relevant documents, with the finance department responsible for implementation [2]. Risk Control and Operational Impact Analysis - The company acknowledges potential risks such as market fluctuations and operational monitoring despite strict investment evaluations [3]. - Multiple control measures are in place, including limiting investments to low-risk categories and continuous monitoring by the finance department [3]. - The plan will not interfere with the company's main business operations and aims to create additional returns for shareholders while optimizing cash flow management [3]. Board Decision Background - The board believes that the company has sufficient funds, with some remaining idle after meeting operational needs [4]. - The decision to manage idle funds is intended to maintain liquidity while preserving and increasing value, aligning with the interests of the company and shareholders [4]. - The choice of 1 billion yuan is based on the company's current financial status and liquidity needs, reflecting a prudent management approach [4].

Core Viewpoint - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) demonstrates strong financial performance with a net interest margin of 1.70% and a five-year average ROE of 11.26%, exceeding industry averages, indicating robust operational efficiency and growth potential [1][7]. Financial Performance - As of June 2025, PSBC's total assets reached 18.19 trillion yuan, a 6.47% increase from the previous year, while total liabilities grew by 6.21% to 17.05 trillion yuan [4]. - The bank reported operating income of 1794.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.50%, and net profit of 494.15 billion yuan, up 1.08% [1]. - Public loans increased by 5410.98 billion yuan, representing a growth of 14.83%, with a year-on-year increase of 2229.24 billion yuan [4]. Net Interest Margin - PSBC's net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 1.70%, a decrease of 17 basis points from 2024, primarily due to one-time factors affecting loan yields [2]. - The bank's self-operated deposits increased by 1300 billion yuan year-on-year, with the interest rate on these deposits declining to approximately 1.1% [3]. Loan Growth and Quality - The bank's credit growth rate of 10.1% in the first half of 2025 outpaced the industry average of 7.1%, with a focus on maintaining a balanced approach to loan volume and pricing [5]. - The overall non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.49%, a decrease of 5 basis points from the previous year [5]. Strategic Initiatives - PSBC aims to enhance capital efficiency and diversify income sources, with non-interest income increasing by 10 percentage points over the past five years [7]. - The bank is implementing a centralized approval process for retail loans to improve risk management and operational efficiency [8]. Operational Efficiency - The bank has initiated ten projects to promote a modern, centralized operational model, with five already implemented nationwide, significantly reducing operational costs [9]. - The cost-to-income ratio decreased by 5.15% in the first half of 2025, reflecting improved management efficiency [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of Return on Equity (ROE) as a key indicator of a company's profitability and the need to identify stocks with stable future ROE to enhance investment returns [1][90]. Group 1: ROE Downward Risk - ROE is a critical measure of a company's ability to generate profit from its equity, with higher ROE indicating stronger profitability and potential returns for investors [1][90]. - Historical data shows that selecting high ROE stocks based solely on past performance does not guarantee future returns, as evidenced by backtesting from April 2010 to April 2024 [1][3]. - The analysis indicates that stocks with high ROE in previous years often experience declines in future ROE, which negatively impacts overall portfolio returns [6][9]. Group 2: Financial Stability Assessment - To identify companies with stable future ROE, the article outlines four financial dimensions: profitability stability, growth stability, leverage stability, and cash flow stability [10][91]. - Specific indicators are used to measure these dimensions, such as the standard deviation of sales net profit margin and ROE over the past nine quarters [11][12]. - The stability factors derived from these dimensions show varying degrees of effectiveness in stock selection across different indices, with notable results in the CSI All Share Index [16][22][31]. Group 3: Stability Factor Application - The article discusses the application of stability factors to filter high ROE stocks, aiming to identify those likely to maintain their ROE above 10% in the future [58][92]. - A significant proportion of stocks (73.44%) in the high ROE category are expected to maintain their ROE, with this percentage increasing to 84.33% for the most stable stocks [62][92]. - The performance of portfolios constructed from stocks with high stability factors shows improved returns compared to general high ROE stock portfolios, with annualized returns reaching 15.80% for the most stable stocks [93][83]. Group 4: Multi-Factor Selection in High ROE Stocks - The article suggests further enhancing returns by applying multi-factor selection within the high ROE and high stability stock pool, focusing on factors such as growth, profitability, and volatility [79][78]. - The multi-factor optimized portfolio demonstrates superior performance, achieving an annualized return of 22.36% compared to the benchmark index [83][94]. - The analysis indicates that the optimized portfolio not only outperforms the high ROE stock pool but also maintains a favorable risk-return profile, as reflected in its Sharpe ratio [83][94].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's net profit after tax for 1H25 was USD 342 million, a year-on-year increase of 20%, aligning closely with Bloomberg's consensus estimate of USD 337 million [1] - The aviation leasing industry is gradually improving, with aircraft manufacturers' production capacity starting to recover, leading to a 12% year-on-year increase in total aircraft deliveries [2] - The company is expected to benefit from rising rental prices and market values due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the aircraft leasing market [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's capital expenditure increased by 150% year-on-year to USD 1.9 billion, the highest semi-annual figure since 2020 [3] - The net lease yield (NLY) improved by 50 basis points year-on-year to 7.5%, driven by the sale of older, low-yield aircraft and the introduction of higher-yield new models [4] Market Outlook - The global demand for air travel is expected to continue recovering, with IATA projecting a 5.8% increase in global RPK for 2025, supporting the leasing market [2] - The report anticipates that the total value of new aircraft deliveries globally will reach USD 100 billion in 2025, the highest since 2019 [2] Capital Expenditure and Growth - The company has a total aircraft order reserve of 351 aircraft, with committed capital expenditure reaching USD 20 billion [3] - The company aims to achieve an asset scale growth target of USD 40 billion by 2030 [3] Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts the forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to USD 710 million, USD 800 million, and USD 830 million respectively, with target price raised to HKD 85 [5][6]