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国投证券国投产业研究院执行院长韩晖:中国经济的确定性价值——全球波动中的信心锚
Core Insights - The global economy is experiencing significant volatility, with geopolitical risks, high inflation, and rising debt risks impacting growth prospects, while China's economy is seen as a stabilizing force amid these uncertainties [1][7] Economic Performance - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected at 5.2%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively, indicating resilience compared to other major economies [2] - High-tech manufacturing investment increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and the core industries of the digital economy accounted for over 10% of GDP, reflecting a shift towards innovation and consumption-driven growth [2] Policy Framework - The continuity and foresight of macroeconomic policies are crucial for China's economic stability, with a focus on high-quality development and structural reforms [3] - Active fiscal policies have led to the issuance of over 3.5 trillion yuan in special bonds, targeting infrastructure, technological innovation, and green transformation [3] Foreign Investment - The negative list for foreign investment in manufacturing has been cleared, and approximately 30,000 new foreign-invested enterprises were established in the first half of 2025, showing an 11.7% year-on-year increase [4] - Despite a 15.2% decline in actual foreign investment to around 423.2 billion yuan, there is a trend of higher quality foreign investment in high-tech sectors [4] International Cooperation - China is actively participating in global governance through high-level openness and international cooperation, particularly in green energy and digital infrastructure [5] - The country aims to enhance its role as a provider of global public goods, with a focus on new areas such as carbon trading and green finance [5] Future Outlook - The 14th Five-Year Plan period is critical for China to achieve middle-income status, with goals for R&D investment intensity at 3.3% and a significant increase in the digital economy's contribution to GDP [6] - The focus will be on regional integration, industrial upgrading, and green transformation as key drivers of growth, while maintaining high-quality development to address external shocks [6] Conclusion - In an era of increasing global volatility, China's economic stability is expected to become more prominent, serving as a stabilizer for domestic growth and a confidence anchor for the global economy [7]