12月9日，A股市场震荡回调，创新药板块冲高回落。截至10:31，20CM涨跌幅的科创创新药ETF汇添富（589120）走平，早盘一度涨超1%！资金小跑进 场，科创创新药ETF汇添富（589120）近5日中有3日吸金，近5日合计净流入超939万元！ 科创创新药ETF汇添富（589120）标的指数成分股涨跌不一，艾力斯、百利天恒等涨超1%，百济神州等微涨，迈威生物等跌超2%，荣昌生物、泽璟制药等 回调。 截至10:33，成分股仅做展示使用，不构成投资建议。 消息面上，2025年国家基本医疗保险、生育保险和工伤保险药品目录是国家医保局成立以来的第8次调整。本次目录调整新增114种药品，其中50种为1类创 新药。首版商保创新药目录共纳入19种药品，既有CAR-T等肿瘤治疗药品，也有社会关注度较高的阿尔茨海默病治疗药品。 【基本医保目录以及首版商保目录发布，延续支持创新！】 招银国际火线点评，2025年版基本医保目录以及首版商保目录发布，延续支持创新。本次目录调整新增114种药品，其中50种1类创新药，同时调出了29种临 床没有供应或可被其他药物更好替代的药品。本次调整在坚持"保基本""尽力而为、量力而行"的基础上， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent shift in market sentiment towards Hong Kong stocks is driven by two main themes: external macro liquidity turning points and internal industry fundamentals improving, particularly in the innovative pharmaceutical sector [2][4]. Group 1: External Catalysts - The macro liquidity environment is expected to change positively due to the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which will release previously locked liquidity from the TGA account, signaling a shift towards looser liquidity conditions [5][7]. - The anticipated resumption of non-farm employment data is likely to catalyze expectations for interest rate cuts, further improving the dollar liquidity environment [6][7]. - Hong Kong stocks are particularly sensitive to changes in dollar liquidity, making them a leading indicator for capital flows in response to the expected fiscal normalization and interest rate cuts [7][8]. Group 2: Internal Drivers - The innovative pharmaceutical sector in Hong Kong has shown resilience, with a reported revenue growth of 23.34% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, despite pressures from centralized procurement and healthcare cost controls [9]. - Upcoming results from the Medicare negotiations and the first commercial insurance innovative drug price negotiations are expected to provide new growth opportunities for innovative drug companies [9][10]. - The diversification of the payment system, combining Medicare and commercial insurance, is anticipated to alleviate payment pressures and expand market potential for high-value innovative drugs [10]. - The Chinese biotech sector is entering a "2.0 era" of innovation output, with a significant pipeline of new drugs and indications expected to drive future performance [10]. Group 3: Dual Resonance - The convergence of external liquidity improvements and strong internal fundamentals positions the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector as a focal point for recovery [11]. - The sector's high sensitivity to financing conditions means that any easing of liquidity will likely lead to rapid valuation recovery [11][12]. - The solid performance metrics and upcoming catalysts provide a robust foundation for sustained growth in the sector, making it an attractive investment opportunity [12][13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant growth and potential of China's innovative pharmaceutical sector, highlighting key trends and market dynamics that suggest a promising future for the industry [6][7][30]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overseas licensing transaction amount reached $84.5 billion, accounting for 33% of global transaction volume [2]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 100.7%, while the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index has risen nearly 115.9% [3]. - The Hong Kong healthcare sector has raised more capital through IPOs this year than in the past three years combined [4]. Group 2: IPO Activity - Since September, over 12 pharmaceutical companies have submitted IPO applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5]. - As of October 23, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is processing approximately 300 listing applications, with half from new economy sectors such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology [5]. Group 3: Innovative Drug Development - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's innovative drug company Legend Biotech's CAR-T therapy Carvykti achieved sales of $1.332 billion in the U.S., marking it as the first domestic innovative drug to surpass $1 billion in sales [6]. - The first half of 2025 saw the National Medical Products Administration approve 40 innovative drugs, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024 [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory into 2026, driven by favorable policies and improving market conditions [7][30]. - The differentiation within the pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to persist, with innovative drugs likely to outperform traditional sectors [31][32]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the trends of "innovation, overseas expansion, and demand improvement" as key areas for potential growth [7]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of the innovative drug market, including the potential for high returns despite inherent risks [27][30]. Group 6: Challenges and Risks - Concerns remain regarding whether Chinese innovative drug companies can successfully commercialize their products overseas, which is seen as a significant risk factor [23][24]. - The article notes that the current phase of overseas expansion is characterized by a reliance on licensing agreements rather than joint development or independent market entry [15][18]. Group 7: Competitive Landscape - The article highlights the competitive nature of the innovative drug sector, with a significant number of companies vying for leadership in key therapeutic areas [25][26]. - The emergence of a "2.0" phase in overseas expansion indicates a shift towards more collaborative and independent development strategies among Chinese pharmaceutical companies [15][16]. Group 8: Future Opportunities - The article identifies several promising areas for growth, including innovative drugs, medical devices, and sectors benefiting from demand recovery [30][33]. - The potential for Chinese companies to establish themselves in global supply chains, particularly in emerging markets, is also noted as a significant opportunity [29].