创新药及CDMO
Search documents
转债市场周报:关注关税及三季报扰动-20251013
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-13 05:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market followed the equity market, rising first and then falling in the 4 trading days before and after the holiday. As of October 10, the valuation of convertible bonds in each parity range remained at an absolute high above the 85th percentile since 2023, with poor overall odds for convertible bond assets. The inflow of incremental funds in the convertible bond market slowed down, and the subsequent parity and valuation of convertible bonds depend on the direction of the equity market [3][16]. - The escalation of Sino-US trade frictions due to new US tariff measures may cause short - term disturbances to market sentiment. With the intensive disclosure of the third - quarter reports of listed companies in mid - to late October, market volatility may increase. In terms of allocation, it is not advisable to be overly aggressive [3][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Trends Stock Market - In the 4 trading days from September 29 to October 10, after the holiday, the A - share market continued to rise on the first trading day and then declined. Gold stocks led the rise in the non - ferrous metals sector, and sectors such as steel and building decoration also performed well. The media sector underperformed due to weak box - office data during the National Day holiday [1][8]. - On September 29, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.74%. On September 30, the A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index flat. On October 9, the A - share market rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.73%. On October 10, the A - share market fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.7%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.55% [8]. - In the 4 trading days before and after the holiday, most Shenwan first - level industries closed higher, with non - ferrous metals (11.89%), steel (7.89%), basic chemicals (4.62%), building decoration (4.30%), and building materials (4.10%) leading the gains; media (-3.70%), communication (-2.21%), social services (-1.19%), and banks (-0.92%) lagging behind [9]. Bond Market - The funds were relatively stable near the end of the quarter. With the September PMI data still in the contraction range, the bond market strengthened before the holiday. During the National Day holiday, data such as box - office and real - estate transactions were weak, global risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the capital market was generally loose after the quarter, leading to a further decline in bond yields. The 10 - year treasury bond yield closed at 1.85% on Friday, down 3.21bp from September 28 [1][9]. Convertible Bond Market - In the 4 trading days before and after the holiday, most convertible bond issues closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.58% for the week, the median price rose 1.39%, the calculated arithmetic average parity fell 0.04% for the week, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.85% compared with the previous week [2][9]. - In terms of industries, most convertible bond industries closed higher, with beauty care (+4.81%), non - ferrous metals (+4.53%), non - bank finance (+3.84%), and steel (+3.74%) leading the gains; communication (-1.35%), household appliances (-0.24%), textile and apparel (+0.03%), and media (+0.39%) lagging behind [11]. - At the individual bond level, Zhonghuan Zhuan 2 (innovative drugs & change of actual controller), Jingda (controllable nuclear fusion concept), Lingyi (AI terminal hardware), Jingxing (Yushu robot concept), and Shuiyang (skincare products) convertible bonds led the gains; Huicheng (waste catalyst treatment), Tongguang (optical fiber cable), Sheng 24 (robot concept), Yitian (computing power concept), and Mengtai (polypropylene fiber & announced forced redemption) convertible bonds led the losses [2][12]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market in the 4 trading days before and after the holiday was 288.445 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 72.111 billion yuan, a decrease compared with the previous week [13]. Valuation Overview - As of October 10, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates for parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 47.91%, 32.17%, 28.71%, 18.69%, 15.24%, and 9.88% respectively, at the 98%/99%, 88%/82%, 95%/98%, 87%/84%, 91%/91%, and 87%/75% percentiles since 2010/2021 [17]. - For bond - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM for parities below 70 yuan was - 4.86%, at the 0%/1% percentile since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 40.58%, at the 78%/67% percentile since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was - 2.32%, at the 69%/70% percentile since 2010/2021 [17]. Primary Market Tracking - From September 29 to October 10, 2025, Funeng Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and no convertible bonds were listed. The underlying stock is Funeng Co., Ltd., with a market value of 28.302 billion yuan as of October 10. The company focuses on renewable and clean energy and large - scale energy storage projects. The scale of the issued convertible bonds is 3.802 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AA+. After deducting issuance fees, the funds will be invested in the 2×660MW ultra - supercritical cogeneration project in Quanhuixin Petrochemical Industrial Park and the Mulan Pumped - Storage Power Station Project in Xianyou, Fujian [24]. - As of the announcements on October 10, there were no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the coming week (October 13 - 17, 2025). During September 29 - October 10, the exchange accepted the application of one company (Aoshikang), seven companies' plans passed the shareholders' meeting, and one company (Haitian Co., Ltd.) had a board of directors' plan. There were no new companies approved for registration or passed by the listing committee. As of now, there are 90 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 137.34 billion yuan, including 2 approved for registration with a total scale of 2.68 billion yuan and 8 passed by the listing committee with a total scale of 5.31 billion yuan [25].