港股医药板块尾盘拉升，君实生物尾盘飙升，今日涨超33%；乐普生物大涨超14%。 外资加仓港股医药，香港交易所信息显示，7月30日，花旗对药明康德(2359.HK)持仓比例从7%升至 8.59%。7月30日，瑞银集团对药明康德(2359.HK)持仓比例从7.98%升至8.45%。 里昂发表研究报告指，中国医疗健康行业流动性及基本面持续改善，维持对医疗健康板块正面看法。该 行指出，行业基本面持续复苏，7月院内处方量按月提升，随着更多创新药放量，第三季行业盈利有望 实现显著增长，加上美债不确定性可能促使资金重新配置，进一步改善创新药资产流动性，相信行业拐 点已过，未来将迎来盈喜等正面催化剂。 从基本面看，2025年上半年，全球医药交易数量达456笔，同比增长32%；首付款总额达118亿美元，同 比激增136%；交易总金额高达1304亿美元，同比增长58%。其中，涉及中国的交易贡献了近50%的总金 额和超过30%的交易数量。而7月又有多家创新药公司达成大额授权交易，包含120亿美元的"天价授 权"，证明了国产创新药的BD能力以及管线海外价值。 交银国际认为，本轮港股创新药行情核心驱动力是价值重估，当前估值仍具吸引力， ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for the Chinese innovative drug industry, marking the transition from technological accumulation to the full realization of value, driven by multiple industry trends such as AI empowerment, commercial insurance establishment, profitability, and record-breaking international expansion [1][7]. Long-term: Three Major Resonances - **Revenue Growth Year**: Innovative drugs included in the medical insurance directory through negotiations are expected to see accelerated sales. In 2024, 76% of innovative drug products were approved for accelerated sales channels, expanding the coverage of medical insurance and making new drugs more accessible to patients. The approval speed for new innovative drugs reached a record high, with 11 new drugs approved on May 29 alone [2][4]. - **Profitability Leap Year**: The innovative drug industry faces high R&D costs and long cycles, typically taking 8-10 years from development to market. However, companies that have invested in R&D since 2015 are beginning to cross the breakeven point. This profitability is supported by external licensing agreements and reduced production costs, allowing for increased profit margins [4]. - **Valuation Uplift Year**: The establishment of a "Category C Drug Directory" by the National Healthcare Security Administration aims to guide commercial insurance coverage for high-priced innovative drugs, creating a dual payment system of "medical insurance + commercial insurance." This is expected to lower patient out-of-pocket expenses to below 30%, extend drug lifecycles, and enhance sales peaks. Additionally, the integration of AI in drug development is likely to lead to a systematic uplift in long-term valuations for the innovative drug sector [4][6]. Short-term: Continued Global Spotlight - During the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting from May 30 to June 3, Chinese innovative drug companies presented 73 oral reports, accounting for nearly one-third of global significant research, showcasing the efficacy of domestic new drugs and attracting collaborations with multinational pharmaceutical companies. Over 30% of high-value licensing deals in 2024 are expected to come from Chinese companies [6]. - Upcoming international conferences, such as the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) and the American Diabetes Association (ADA), will feature new antibody drugs for autoimmune diseases and innovative therapies for metabolic diseases, respectively. These events are expected to catalyze both technical validation and commercial transformation for Chinese innovative drugs [6]. Overall Outlook - The convergence of various favorable factors in 2025 is likely to mark the beginning of a value reassessment for the Chinese innovative drug industry [7]. Related Products - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index (987018.CNI) focuses on innovative drug companies within the Hong Kong Stock Connect, benefiting from the 18A listing rules and entering a mature phase with increasing new drug sales [8]. - The Innovative Drug Index (931152.CSI) targets leading companies in the A-share innovative drug industry chain, including global CXO leaders and domestic companies transitioning to innovative drug production, poised to benefit from the anticipated revenue growth in the innovative drug sector [8].

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector in China's stock markets has shown significant growth, with private equity firms expressing optimism and adopting long-term bullish strategies, viewing quality innovative drug assets as "non-saleable" for at least this year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Chinese innovative drug industry has become attractive post-adjustment, with a key turning point marked by the bottoming out of industry fundamentals and valuations, leading to a surge in licensing deals with multinational pharmaceutical companies [2][3]. - In 2024, approximately 31% of innovative drug candidates introduced by multinational companies are expected to come from Chinese firms, with 30% of large prepayment transactions involving Chinese R&D assets, a significant increase from nearly zero five years ago [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The dual-driven business model of Chinese innovative drug companies is now established, benefiting from both "product sales" and "overseas licensing," creating a growth loop that enhances their global market share [3]. - Private equity firms are focusing on increasing their holdings in innovative drug companies, particularly leaders in various segments and those with potential licensing deals [4][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of "re-evaluating market value," with the potential for significant capital inflow as institutions adjust their allocations to align with the recovery of quality innovative drug assets [4][7]. - Despite recent rapid increases in the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for continued valuation growth among leading companies as their products are launched and licensed overseas [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant recovery in stock prices, attracting attention from brokers for research and investment opportunities [2] - The Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF (517380) has seen a net inflow of 3.6 million yuan, with a current scale of 389 million yuan as of May 26 [1] - The Tianhong ETF is the only product that comprehensively covers the innovative drug sector across A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on the "Hengsheng Huasheng Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selected 50" index [1] Group 2 - The innovative drug industry is entering a new cycle of value reassessment due to a combination of policy, industry, and performance factors [2] - Longjiang Securities suggests that the previous valuation methods used during the bear market may no longer be applicable, indicating a need for a re-evaluation of the valuation system for innovative drug companies [2] - There has been significant interest from brokers, with nearly 60 companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector being researched this month, highlighting the sector's attractiveness [2]