2025年以来，伴随国产创新药板块迎来AI赋能、商保建立、扭亏为盈、出海破纪录等多重产业趋势，吸引了较多市场关注。相关机构表 明，2025年可能是创新药行业"三大元年"的起点，或标志着整个产业从技术积累迈向价值全面兑现的关键阶段。 一、长期：三大元年三重共振 （1）收入放量元年：通过医保谈判纳入医保目录的创新药，或更容易通过进院销售叠加医保支持销售放量。经过2024年医保谈判，76%的 创新药产品获批进入加速销售通道，医保覆盖范围扩大让更多患者用得起新药。同时，国内创新药新品审批速度创下纪录——仅5月29日就 批准了11款全新药物上市，政策绿灯让药企研发成果更快转化为真金白银的收入。 图：历次医保目录谈判梳理 （信息来源：申万宏源；截至20241231） （2）盈利跨越元年：创新药行业存在研发投入大、研发周期长的特点，相关机构梳理一款创新药从研发到上市需要经历8-10年。因此，一 家创新药企成立初期盈利需要承受较大压力。然而，中国创新药行业自2015年起步以来，过去十年持续投入研发的企业开始批量跨过盈亏 平衡点。 创新药企盈利的背后是双重助力：一方面是"开源"，对外授权带来高额首付款（2025年一季度交易额已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector in China's stock markets has shown significant growth, with private equity firms expressing optimism and adopting long-term bullish strategies, viewing quality innovative drug assets as "non-saleable" for at least this year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Chinese innovative drug industry has become attractive post-adjustment, with a key turning point marked by the bottoming out of industry fundamentals and valuations, leading to a surge in licensing deals with multinational pharmaceutical companies [2][3]. - In 2024, approximately 31% of innovative drug candidates introduced by multinational companies are expected to come from Chinese firms, with 30% of large prepayment transactions involving Chinese R&D assets, a significant increase from nearly zero five years ago [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The dual-driven business model of Chinese innovative drug companies is now established, benefiting from both "product sales" and "overseas licensing," creating a growth loop that enhances their global market share [3]. - Private equity firms are focusing on increasing their holdings in innovative drug companies, particularly leaders in various segments and those with potential licensing deals [4][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of "re-evaluating market value," with the potential for significant capital inflow as institutions adjust their allocations to align with the recovery of quality innovative drug assets [4][7]. - Despite recent rapid increases in the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for continued valuation growth among leading companies as their products are launched and licensed overseas [7][8].

5月27日，创新药ETF天弘（517380）盘中翻红，截至发稿涨0.83%，溢折率0.23%，盘中频现溢价交 易。 成分股中，常山药业涨超15%，贝达药业、君实生物-U、先声药业、联邦制药等跟涨。 资金面上，Wind金融终端数据显示，创新药ETF天弘（517380）昨日获360万元资金净流入。 创新药ETF天弘（517380.SH）为天弘基金在2021年发行的ETF，基准指数为"恒生沪深港创新药精选 50"，代码HSSSHID。该指数可以看作是"创新药行业SmartBeta"指数，以单个指数实现了A股+港股全 面覆盖、创新药+CXO全面覆盖。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 天弘的场内外基金为布局该指数的全市场唯一产品。其中，ETF在上交所上市，代码为517380.SH，简 称为"创新药ETF天弘"，截至5月26日，其规模为3.89亿元。而在场外，联接基金成立也已超3年（A类 014564，C类014565）。 据证券时报5月25日报道，今年以来，以创新药为代表的医药板块股价修复明显，医药行业也成为近期 券商调研的"香饽饽"，券商本月合计调研 ...