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【专访】郑江淮:破解内卷式竞争并非限制竞争,要从四个维度发力 | 前瞻十五五㉒
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 01:36
Core Viewpoint - The shift in focus from "technological innovation" to "building a modern industrial system" in China's 15th Five-Year Plan is aimed at creating a synergistic relationship where innovation leads industry and industry supports innovation, crucial for establishing a global production system centered on China [1][9]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The establishment of a modern industrial system is prioritized to address the shortcomings in China's industrial structure and to enhance the synergy between technological innovation and industrial application [8][30]. - The modern industrial system is seen as essential for transforming technological potential into economic growth, emphasizing the need for a complete support system from basic research to industrial application [8][9]. Group 2: Strategic Emerging Industries - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, marking the first time since the 12th Five-Year Plan that new energy vehicles are not included [2][10]. - The exclusion of new energy vehicles indicates a transition from a policy-driven growth phase to a market maturity phase, reflecting a shift from scale expansion to quality enhancement in industrial policy [2][10]. Group 3: Involution in Competition - Involution in the new energy vehicle industry has emerged, characterized by low efficiency and stagnant total factor productivity growth, necessitating a policy shift to correct market failures and promote high-end, intelligent, and green transformations [12][15]. - The adjustment in policy aims to guide the industry from price competition to value competition, focusing on core technology breakthroughs and product quality improvements [12][15]. Group 4: Lessons from International Experience - International experiences highlight that dynamic adjustments in industrial policy are common among developed countries, which adapt their support strategies as industries mature [11][12]. - The U.S. and Japan have successfully navigated similar challenges by shifting their focus from broad subsidies to targeted support for advanced technologies, providing a model for China's policy evolution [11][12]. Group 5: Structural Shortcomings and Challenges - China's capital, technology, and talent factors face structural shortcomings that hinder its transition to a developed economy, with a need for improved global competitiveness in these areas [27][30]. - The focus on enhancing the quality of factor inputs and ensuring stable returns on capital is crucial for overcoming the "middle-income trap" and achieving sustainable economic growth [27][30].
2025中国EMBA项目排行榜:以STEM为导向的2025观察
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-11 15:45
Core Insights - The 2025 "China EMBA Program Rankings" and the report on "STEM: New Challenges in EMBA Business Education" highlight the need for practical and technical knowledge, especially in business, to transform new ideas into real outcomes [1][2] - The report emphasizes the integration of management theory with STEM disciplines, reflecting a shift in business education to address contemporary challenges [2][7] EMBA Rankings Overview - The top-ranked EMBA programs include Tsinghua University, Peking University, Zhejiang University, and Shanghai Jiao Tong University, showcasing a focus on STEM-oriented teaching and innovation [3][21] - The rankings are based on various criteria, including teaching innovation, practical projects, and the cultivation of technological strategies [11][21] STEM Integration in EMBA Programs - EMBA programs are increasingly incorporating STEM elements into their curricula, with a focus on interdisciplinary approaches that combine management with science and technology [22][25][28] - The "BEST Strategy" introduced by Zhejiang University emphasizes the integration of Business, Engineering, Science, and Technology to enhance educational outcomes [25] Teaching Innovations and Challenges - The report identifies a shift in the evaluation criteria for EMBA programs, with increased weight given to teaching innovation and the ability to foster technological strategies [11][12] - The challenges faced by finance-oriented EMBA programs in adapting to STEM-focused education are noted, highlighting resource limitations [18] Social Responsibility and Impact - The rankings also consider the social responsibility initiatives of EMBA programs, emphasizing the importance of contributing to society beyond just business success [20][18] - Various EMBA programs have implemented social responsibility projects, demonstrating their commitment to societal contributions [20]
普通人的财富自由躺平计划,诺贝尔奖已经验证了125年...
雪球· 2025-10-24 13:00
Group 1 - The article discusses the recent Nobel Prize winners in economics: Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt, highlighting their contributions to economic growth and creative destruction theories [3][4][5]. - The Nobel Prize fund aims to maintain a real return of over 3% after inflation, ensuring sustainability for future awards [6][7]. - The distribution of the Nobel Prize fund includes 52% in equity funds, 9% in real estate and infrastructure, 17% in fixed income and cash, and 20% in alternative assets like hedge funds and private equity [15]. Group 2 - The article notes that the Nobel Prize fund experienced a significant loss of -19.1% during the 2008 financial crisis, leading to a 20% reduction in prize money in 2012 [16]. - It emphasizes the importance of a reliable long-term investment strategy that can provide a consistent 3% return annually while preserving capital [18]. - The article suggests that individuals can achieve financial independence by saving a substantial amount and withdrawing 3% annually to cover living expenses, ensuring that both principal and spending power are protected against inflation [20][22].
今年的诺贝尔经济学奖,藏着一个选股模型
雪球· 2025-10-20 08:12
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Competition-Innovation Inverted U-Curve" model, which illustrates the relationship between competition and innovation, suggesting that moderate competition fosters the highest level of innovation, while excessive competition can hinder it [4][6][9]. Group 1: Competition and Innovation in Internet Industry - The article highlights that companies like Tencent, which hold a monopolistic position, may not necessarily excel in innovation, as they often wait for others to validate new business models before entering the market [11][12]. - In contrast, Alibaba operates in a moderately competitive environment, which has driven its innovation in cloud computing and financial services, allowing it to maintain a strong market position despite challenges [16][17]. - The analysis confirms the "Competition-Innovation Inverted U-Curve," where moderate competition leads to the strongest innovation incentives [17]. Group 2: Comparison of Lithium Battery and Photovoltaic Industries - The article explains that CATL, a leader in the lithium battery sector, remains in the middle of the competition-innovation curve, allowing it to maintain growth, while photovoltaic leaders are positioned on the right side, facing intense competition that hampers innovation [21][23]. - Key differences between lithium batteries and photovoltaic technology include customer sensitivity to pricing and the nature of their respective supply chains, which affect their cash flow characteristics and market concentration [23][24]. - CATL's strong cash flow and stable profit margins enable significant R&D investment, while photovoltaic companies struggle with high debt and low margins, leading to a focus on defensive innovation rather than groundbreaking advancements [24][25]. Group 3: Innovation Impact Function - The article introduces the "Innovation Impact Function," which indicates that the benefits of innovation are greater for monopolistic firms compared to those in highly competitive markets [32][34]. - In industries with high concentration, such as lithium batteries, innovations can lead to substantial profit increases, while in more competitive sectors like photovoltaics, the benefits of innovation are quickly eroded due to rapid imitation [36][37]. - The article concludes that the choice of industry significantly influences a company's ability to innovate and maintain profitability, emphasizing the importance of selecting industries with steeper innovation impact functions for long-term investment success [37].
工行行长刘珺:深化熊彼特理论认知,以“破立平衡”激活市场韧性
Group 1 - The core idea presented by Liu Jun at the 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference emphasizes that true market vitality arises from a dynamic balance between creation and destruction, rather than mere market expansion [1] - Liu Jun interprets sustainability as a system's ability to self-evolve and maintain dynamic balance, advocating for a positive cycle of "breaking" and "establishing" to achieve long-term stability and prosperity in economic and social development [1][3] Group 2 - The concept of "creative destruction," introduced by economist Joseph Schumpeter, highlights that capitalism achieves economic structure through innovation competition rather than price competition, underscoring the role of innovation in replacing old technologies and production systems [2] - The recent announcement of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt reflects a significant revival of Schumpeter's ideas, recognizing their contributions to understanding how innovation drives economic growth [2] Group 3 - Liu Jun suggests that in the digital age, the "creation" aspect of creative destruction should encompass the cultivation of new ecosystems, models, and industries, as evidenced by the growth in the number of new companies and job creation [3] - The "destruction" aspect should highlight the transformative and disruptive power of innovation, which is directly reflected in the number and proportion of bankrupt companies [3] Group 4 - Liu Jun emphasizes that the balance between "breaking" and "establishing" is not static; when outdated production forces hinder social progress, "breaking" becomes a rational choice to prevent greater sunk costs and serves as a fundamental driver of paradigm shifts [4] - He argues that true sustainability is not about static continuation but rather about orderly rebirth, achieved through continuous creation, clearing out, and regeneration cycles [4] - Liu Jun calls for collective participation in the sustainable development process, where every participant is both a stakeholder and an actor, fostering a shared understanding of a sustainable future [4]
诺贝尔经济学奖获得者阿吉翁曾接受一财独家专访,他说了什么
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-10-13 10:40
Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth [1] Group 1: Contributions of Awardees - Joel Mokyr received half of the prize for identifying prerequisites for sustained growth through technological advancement [1] - Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt jointly received the other half for their theory on sustained growth through creative destruction [1] - Aghion is recognized as a leading figure in economic growth theory, having revitalized Schumpeter's paradigm of economic growth through the Aghion-Howitt model [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Insights - Aghion emphasized the importance of government support for employees and businesses to adapt to new economic environments, particularly through education, training, and income insurance [3] - He highlighted the "Danish model," where individuals losing jobs can receive nearly 90% of their salary for two years, coupled with retraining programs, contrasting it with the lack of such protections in the U.S. [3] - Aghion noted that while the U.S. has strong innovation capabilities, it lacks adequate social protection systems, which can lead to severe consequences for individuals losing jobs [4][5] Group 3: European Innovation Challenges - Aghion pointed out that Europe is currently underinvesting in innovation and needs to unite to promote large projects [7] - He criticized existing anti-competitive measures in Europe that hinder investment and suggested that Europe needs to shift from being a "police" to an "investor" in innovation [7] - The crisis has highlighted Europe's inefficiencies in innovation, with a significant decline in industrial capacity and innovation compared to the past [7]
科技新贵都在跨界,为何这家公司玩得最大?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-30 04:59
Core Viewpoint - The trend of cross-industry expansion among technology companies is gaining momentum, with firms seeking new growth avenues in response to complex industry and economic environments [1][3]. Group 1: Cross-Industry Expansion - DJI has ventured into the sweeping robot and panoramic camera markets, while other companies like Roborock and Ecovacs are exploring new domains such as laundry appliances and smart kitchens [2]. - Xiaomi's foray into the automotive sector has significantly boosted its stock price, which has increased over 200% in the past year [3]. - The company Chase has announced its ambition to become a "boundary-less ecological enterprise," entering multiple sectors including drones, automobiles, kitchen appliances, and more [3][4]. Group 2: Chase's Ambitions - Chase's CEO, Yu Hao, has expressed intentions to create a high-end airline service, aiming to dominate the air travel market [4][6]. - The company is actively forming a professional drone development team and has invested 4 billion in establishing a smart home appliance headquarters in Nanjing [6][7]. - Chase plans to produce 4.5 million units annually for its ice-washing appliances, with rapid progress from signing to construction [7]. Group 3: Product Positioning and Market Strategy - Chase's television products are positioned in the ultra-high-end market, priced between $1,500 and $2,500, emphasizing a "flagship" and "top-tier" branding [8]. - The automotive division of Chase is also aggressive, with multiple business units focusing on different vehicle types, including SUVs and luxury cars [10][11]. - The first batch of prototype vehicles includes modified versions of popular models, showcasing Chase's innovative approach [12]. Group 4: Technological Foundation - Chase's product lines share commonalities, leveraging mature core technologies such as high-speed motors and autonomous driving capabilities [14]. - The company has a strong emphasis on self-developed technology, which serves as its primary competitive advantage and growth engine [14]. - Chase's rapid market penetration is supported by its history of innovation, having previously developed high-speed motors that outperformed industry standards [14]. Group 5: Market Competition and Challenges - The global smart vacuum cleaner market is competitive, with leading companies holding significant market shares, and Chase currently at 8% [15]. - Despite the technological advantages of established players like DJI, entering new markets remains challenging, as evidenced by mixed reviews of their new products [21][24]. - The pursuit of new growth avenues is fraught with difficulties, as many companies face the reality of saturated markets requiring disruptive innovation [29][30].
谁更需要高关税?
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-27 10:51
Group 1 - The core argument of the article revolves around the historical and contemporary perspectives on high tariffs and trade protectionism, particularly in developing countries [1][2][4] - The article highlights the contradiction that while many economists have proven the ineffectiveness of protected industries, the call for high tariffs persists, especially from advanced nations [3][4] - The article discusses the evolution of trade policies in the U.S. as outlined by Douglas Irwin, focusing on three main goals: Revenue, Restriction, and Reciprocity, with the emphasis shifting over time [5][30] Group 2 - The "Infant Industry Argument" proposed by Alexander Hamilton suggests that nascent industries require temporary protection from foreign competition to develop [6][7] - Friedrich List expanded on Hamilton's ideas, advocating for differentiated and progressive tariffs to protect industries with potential for growth while allowing for eventual transition to free trade [10][11] - Raul Prebisch's "Center-Periphery" theory posits that developing countries must break the unequal trade relationship with industrialized nations through strategies like import substitution and export-oriented growth [13][14][16] Group 3 - Empirical studies by economists like Frédéric Bastiat and Amasa Walker demonstrate that trade protection often leads to inefficiencies and does not guarantee the intended benefits for domestic industries [19][22] - Philippe Aghion's research indicates that protectionist policies can hinder economic dynamism and lead to stagnation, as seen in Japan's economy [28][29] - The article suggests that non-tariff measures may be more effective than tariffs in achieving trade protection goals, as supported by various studies [29][30] Group 4 - The article outlines the historical phases of U.S. trade policy, indicating a potential return to a focus on revenue generation through tariffs as the national debt escalates [33][39] - The shift in U.S. industrial structure towards services and the geographical concentration of manufacturing has implications for future trade policy [37][38] - The increasing national debt and its impact on fiscal policy may drive the U.S. government to prioritize high tariffs as a means of revenue generation [38][39]
【广发宏观文永恒】新一轮技术变革的宏观分析框架
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-04-29 08:19
第三, 每一轮技术革命可进一步划分为导入期(Installation Period)和展开期(Deployment Period)。导入期又进一步包括爆发阶段与狂热阶段。在爆发阶 段,新技术初步出现并引发投资热潮,金融资本主导,技术创新与投机泡沫并存;至狂热阶段,技术应用快速扩散,但市场泡沫逐步退潮。展开期进一步包括协同 阶段与成熟阶段。协同阶段的特点是技术逐渐成熟,开始与实体经济深度融合,社会制度(如政策、法规)开始适应新技术,形成稳定的"技术-经济范式";至成 熟阶段,技术已经全面普及,并开始相对稳定地助力经济增长 。 第四, 关于技术革命对经济增长的影响,经典的理论主要是卢卡斯和罗默的"内生增长理论"、熊彼特的"创造性破坏理论"。内生增长理论把技术进步视为内生变 量,通过人力资本积累、研发投入、知识溢出等因素推动,技术是一种可积累的公共品,会不断地作用于经济。创造性破坏理论则认为技术创新的本质是结构性变 革,是新技术对旧技术的替代,以及它带来的市场垄断权的更迭和产业结构的重组。简单来看二者区别,内生增长理论之下,技术革命是线性的、连续的;创造性 破坏理论之下,技术革命是非连续的、跳跃性的。从"创造性破坏 ...