Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be in a short - term range oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [6] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to operate at a high level in the near future, and then pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [5] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [3] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center of gravity [4] Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price was operating at a high level. Macro data kept the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September unchanged, and traders were waiting for the result of the "Putin - Trump meeting". The US dollar jumped on Thursday and gave back most of the gains on Friday [3] - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China was 110.32 million tons per year, and the total operating production capacity was 91.79 million tons per year. The weekly operating rate of alumina increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% [4] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%, showing a mild recovery trend. In sub - fields, the operating rates of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil increased, while that of recycled aluminum decreased slightly [4] - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 20,000 tons from last Monday [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In July, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic household RMB loans dropped to 2.65%, and the growth rate of household medium - and long - term loans also fell to 3.43%. From January to July, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to 1.60%, about 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June. The long - term Treasury bond yield continued to rise, which may reflect the market's expectation of more real - estate support policies [2][10]. - The PPI in the US in July exceeded expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3% (the highest level since February this year) and a month - on - month increase of 0.9% (the largest increase since June 2022). The follow - up pressure transmission needs attention. The Fed's scenario of more than 2 interest rate cuts this year still requires the decline of inflation data as support [2][12]. - The year - on - year decline of the production material price index continued to narrow. From August 11th to 15th, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.17% month - on - month and 25.69% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 7.22% month - on - month and decreased by 26.99% year - on - year. The year - on - year decline of the production material price index narrowed to 5.29% [2]. - From August 1st to 14th, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 181,000 square meters, while in August 2024, it was about 232,000 square meters per day [2]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - In July, the growth of domestic household loans and fixed - asset investment slowed down. The long - term Treasury bond yield should have faced downward pressure but continued to rise, which may reflect the market's expectation of real - estate support policies. The new - issued mortgage rate in the second quarter decreased again, and the adjusted new - issued mortgage rate after tax and capital cost continued to decline, but the trend slowed down [2][10][11]. - The PPI in the US in July exceeded expectations. If the upstream price - increase pressure can be transmitted to consumer prices, it may form re - inflation pressure; otherwise, it may affect corporate inventory investment [2][12]. - Various high - frequency data showed different trends. For example, food prices, consumer goods prices, energy prices, and real - estate transaction data all had their own changes in terms of month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons [15][17]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple high - frequency data were compared with important macroeconomic indicators, such as the comparison between the year - on - year change of LME copper spot settlement price and the year - on - year change of industrial added value and PPI, and the comparison between the year - on - year change of crude steel daily output and the year - on - year change of industrial added value [17][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Some important high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe were presented, including the US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, as well as the implied interest - rate hike/cut prospects of the US Federal Funds Futures and the ECB's overnight index swaps [92][94][103]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data were analyzed, with indicators such as the monthly average of crude steel daily output and the production material price index showing their respective seasonal changes [105]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were presented [160].

Group 1 - The Trump administration has announced an expansion of the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which will include hundreds of derivative products, effective August 18 [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 407 product codes to the tariff list due to their steel and aluminum content, with specific tariffs applicable to non-steel and aluminum components [1] - The tariffs on steel and aluminum are the highest since the 1930s, leading to increased production costs for manufacturers and potentially higher prices for consumers [2] Group 2 - U.S. Aluminum Company reported a $20 million increase in production costs in Q1 due to tariff policies, and a $115 million increase in Q2 as a result of tariffs on Canadian products [2] - Approximately 70% of aluminum produced by the U.S. Aluminum Company in Canada is sold to the U.S., where customers are now paying higher prices than in other global markets [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 0.9%, significantly higher than June's zero growth, indicating rising cost pressures for U.S. businesses [4] Group 3 - President Trump announced plans to impose semiconductor tariffs, potentially reaching up to 300%, within two weeks [3] - The PPI increase was primarily driven by the service sector, with a notable 1.1% rise in service producer prices, the largest since March 2022 [4] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also saw a 0.9% month-over-month increase, with a year-over-year rise of 3.7%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4]

Group 1 - China has filed a lawsuit against Canada at the World Trade Organization (WTO) due to allegations of dumping canola oil, imposing a deposit of up to 75.8% on imports from Canada starting August 14 [1] - Canadian Agriculture Minister expressed disappointment over China's decision but acknowledged efforts to engage in dialogue with China to resolve trade disputes [3] - Canada has not taken substantial corrective measures in the four days following China's announcement, prompting further action from China [3] Group 2 - Canada imposed discriminatory tariffs on Chinese steel products as a means to address trade tensions with the United States, which has placed significant tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum [3][5] - The Canadian government previously announced a 100% tariff on electric vehicles from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from China to appease the U.S. [5] - The new Canadian Prime Minister, Carney, has taken a firm stance against U.S. pressure, but recent tariffs on products containing "Chinese steel components" indicate ongoing trade discrimination [5] Group 3 - China is no longer willing to tolerate Canada's previous approach of externalizing internal issues by targeting China, warning that further actions harming Chinese interests will lead to consequences [7] - The expectation is for Canada to recognize the situation and work towards a positive development in bilateral relations with China [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced an expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, increasing the tariff rate to 50% on hundreds of derivative products [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Expansion Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 407 product codes to the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, which will incur additional tariffs due to their steel and aluminum content [2]. - The expanded tariff list will officially take effect on August 18 [2]. - The tariff on imported steel and aluminum was previously raised from 25% to 50% as announced on June 3 [2].

敦促加方纠正错误做法 据商务部信息显示，当地时间7月16日，加拿大财政部网站发布公告，表示为应对美国钢铁关税和全球 钢铁产能过剩，自8月1日起，将扩大进口钢铁关税配额适用范围、收紧现有配额，对配额外进口征收附 加税。此外，将对自美国以外国家进口的含有在中国熔化和浇铸钢铁的产品征收25%的附加税。 "我们敦促加方立即采取行动，纠正错误做法，维护以规则为基础的多边贸易体制，推动中加经贸关系 持续改善。" 据悉，中国在世贸组织（WTO）就加拿大钢铁等产品进口限制措施提起诉讼。 商务部网站发布信息显示，商务部新闻发言人对此表示，8月15日，中方在WTO起诉加拿大钢铁等产品 进口限制措施。 商务部新闻发言人表示，加方无视WTO规则，出台钢铁关税配额措施，并对含所谓"中国钢铁成分"等 产品加征歧视性关税，是典型的单边主义和贸易保护主义做法，损害中方合法权益，扰乱全球钢铁等产 业链供应链稳定。中方对此强烈不满，坚决反对。 商务部新闻发言人表示，我们敦促加方立即采取行动，纠正错误做法，维护以规则为基础的多边贸易体 制，推动中加经贸关系持续改善。 近期，商务部还发布了对原产于加拿大的进口油菜籽、原产于加拿大等国的进口卤化丁基橡 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China has filed a lawsuit against Canada in the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding import restrictions on steel and other products, claiming that Canada's actions are unilateral and protectionist, violating WTO rules [1][2]. - China strongly opposes Canada's discriminatory tariffs on products containing "Chinese steel components," which disrupts the stability of global steel supply chains [1]. - The Chinese government urges Canada to correct its actions to maintain a rules-based multilateral trading system and to improve China-Canada economic and trade relations [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the steady growth and development of China's green finance sector as it approaches the fourth anniversary of the national carbon market, emphasizing policy acceleration, market recovery, product innovation, and regional competition in green finance [2][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of domestic and foreign currency green loans reached 42.39 trillion yuan, marking a 14.4% increase from the beginning of the year and a 22.0% increase year-on-year [3][24]. - The national carbon market has seen a cumulative trading volume of 681 million tons of carbon emission allowances (CEA) and a total transaction value of 46.78 billion yuan, making it the largest carbon market globally in terms of emissions coverage [3][32]. - The total volume of green certificate transactions reached 348 million, a year-on-year increase of 118%, with the average transaction price for green certificates rising by 47% from April to June [3][34]. Group 2: Policy Developments - In July 2025, several key policies were introduced, including the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" and guidelines for green finance practitioners, enhancing the standardization and implementation of green finance [5][6]. - Local governments, including Tianjin and Henan, have launched tailored financial implementation opinions and green finance directories to promote localized exploration and standardization [6][12]. Group 3: Financial Product Innovation - New green financial products have emerged, such as the first "fixed + floating" green financial bond issued by China Construction Bank and the first carbon-neutral green perpetual corporate bond by Ningxia Electric Power Investment Group [7][38][39]. - Financial institutions in various regions have begun to implement transformation loans linked to carbon footprints, encouraging high-carbon industries to transition to low-carbon operations [7][41]. Group 4: Market Data - The green bond market remained active in July 2025, with 87 new green bonds issued, totaling approximately 120.18 billion yuan, indicating strong market engagement [28]. - The national carbon market's trading price fluctuated between 72.19 yuan and 74.30 yuan per ton in July, reflecting a dynamic trading environment [31]. Group 5: Corporate Dynamics - Companies are increasingly adopting innovative financial tools and mechanisms, transitioning from merely supporting green initiatives to actively guiding transformations in high-carbon sectors [37]. - The issuance of various loans and bonds aimed at supporting low-carbon transitions has been reported across multiple regions, showcasing a growing trend in corporate engagement with green finance [40][42][44]. Group 6: Focus Events - The 26th Qinghai Green Development Investment and Trade Fair attracted significant participation, highlighting the importance of international cooperation in green finance [46][47]. - The signing of a climate declaration between the EU and China emphasizes the commitment to green partnerships and cooperation in addressing climate change [57].

Core Viewpoint - The Indian government is considering trade concessions to the U.S. in response to newly imposed tariffs, aiming to avoid escalating trade tensions while maintaining strategic autonomy [1][4]. Trade Negotiations - India is evaluating potential trade concessions, particularly in agriculture and dairy sectors, to satisfy U.S. demands while minimizing domestic impact [3][6]. - The Indian government views the 21-day window before the tariffs take effect as a critical opportunity for negotiations with the Trump administration [4][7]. Economic Impact - The U.S. is India's largest export market, with exports projected to reach nearly $87 billion in 2024. A 50% tariff could significantly impact key sectors such as textiles, automotive parts, and steel [2][6]. - Indian exporters are concerned about the severe repercussions of the tariffs, with estimates suggesting that nearly 55% of goods exported to the U.S. could be affected [6][7]. Agricultural Concerns - Agriculture is a highly sensitive area for the Indian government, with farmers forming a powerful political lobbying group. The government is resistant to importing genetically modified products [6][7]. - Prime Minister Modi has expressed a firm stance on protecting farmers' interests, indicating a willingness to face personal and political costs for this commitment [6]. Strategic Autonomy - The Indian government aims to achieve a bilateral agreement that preserves its strategic autonomy while addressing U.S. trade concerns [4][5]. - Despite domestic calls for a strong response to U.S. actions, the Indian government is prioritizing diplomatic solutions over retaliatory measures [4][7].

据报道，前不久，加拿大财政部突然宣布将对自美国以外国家进口的含有在中国熔化和浇铸钢铁的产品 征收25%的附加税。消息一出，全球贸易观察者都等着看中国的反应。结果谁都没想到，中国的反击来 得如此之快、如此之狠，关键时刻中方与澳大利亚敲定了油菜籽贸易恢复协议，首批试运量高达25万 吨。更讽刺的是，这些订单原本都是加拿大农民的饭碗。 这场贸易战的戏剧性转折，暴露了加拿大总理在战略上的严重失误。一边不敢对美国说"不"，一边又对 中国挥关税大棒，最后落得个钢铝产业没救成、农产品市场反而丢了的尴尬局面。而这一切的导火索， 还要从美国总统特朗普那封充满火药味的通牒说起。 卡尼（资料图） 特朗普通过"真实社交"平台发布致加拿大总理的公开信，宣布自8月1日起对加拿大商品加征35%关税。 信中直指加拿大在芬太尼问题和贸易争端上的"不作为"，甚至威胁如果加拿大通过第三国转运商品逃避 关税，税率将进一步提高到40%。这记重拳直接打在了加拿大经济的软肋上——要知道，加拿大75%的 出口都依赖美国市场。 卡尼（资料图） 这场闹剧暴露了加拿大政府在战略上的多重失误。首先是对中国经济影响力的严重误判。中国作为全球 最大油菜籽进口国，年均进口 ...