月24日，位于一师阿拉尔市的新疆锦域纺织有限公司纺纱生产线高效运转，工人加紧赶制订单产品。兵 团日报全媒体记者 王志清 摄 ●兵团日报全媒体记者 沈元赓 王素凡 刘美惠子 人勤春早 沃野欢歌 这个春节假期，香甜可口的草莓备受消费者青睐，成为不少家庭餐桌上的节日"标配"。 2月24日一大早，十二师农科所检测中心主任史芳芳便一头扎进了草莓种植大棚，查看草莓长势，指导 种植户科学管护。研究草莓14年的史芳芳及其团队攻克的草莓脱毒种苗繁育及高效栽培技术，已带动 300余户种植户实现增收致富，相关产业综合产值突破4000万元。 "科技护航、品质为先，我们就是要让消费者的'菜篮子''果盘子'更丰富，吃得更安心。"史芳芳说道。 人勤春来早，奋进正当时。 气温日渐回暖，十四师二二四团三连党支部书记、连管会指导员陈宏一大早就直奔枣园，拿起修剪工 具，为枣树整形修剪、疏密改造。 陈宏介绍，眼下正是枣树生长关键期，连队将组织开展农业技术培训，在耕、种、管、收等各生产环节 下功夫，帮助更多职工群众掌握种植技术，稳步提升红枣产量和品质。 2月24日上午，二师三〇团八连退休职工谢瑞银送走一批购买农资的顾客后，拿出账本细细盘点收支情 况。 ...

Group 1 - The global capital markets have experienced significant volatility and structural changes over the past year, with inflation, interest rate fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions impacting market sentiment [4][5] - The rise of AI and technological advancements has shifted investor focus from speculative themes to execution capabilities and cash flow, indicating a maturation of market dynamics [4][5] - In Australia, the stock market has seen opportunities emerge amidst resource cycles and technological trends, with improved China-Australia relations contributing to a more stable economic environment [5][21] Group 2 - Shandong Xinhai Mining Group has positioned itself as a leading EPC company in the global mining market, leveraging professional expertise and technological innovation to expand its international presence [21][22] - The company has established strategic partnerships in Australia, focusing on key resources such as gold, copper, and rare earth elements, enhancing its service capabilities across the mining value chain [22][23] - Looking ahead, Xinhai aims to deepen its "resource + service" dual-driven strategy, reinforcing its project execution capabilities while expanding its international footprint [22][23] Group 3 - Jiahe Capital has successfully navigated the complexities of the market in 2025, focusing on gold and key metals, and achieving significant progress in project financing and cross-border cooperation [24][25] - The firm anticipates continued strength in gold demand driven by structural trends in the monetary system and persistent geopolitical risks, while also exploring opportunities in critical metals related to energy transition [25][26] - Jiahe Capital's strategic positioning in the resource sector emphasizes the importance of effective management of cyclical fluctuations and deep participation in the industry value chain [25][26] Group 4 - BlueScope Steel's acquisition discussions have stalled due to high expectations from shareholders, with analysts suggesting that a successful transaction may require asset divestitures [26][27] - The current share price of BlueScope is AUD 29.16, with the board seeking offers above AUD 30, but industry experts believe a significant drop in share price may be necessary for a successful deal [27]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has expanded its carbon reduction support tool to include projects related to energy efficiency upgrades and low-carbon transitions, aiming to facilitate a comprehensive green transformation in the economy [1][2][3]. Financial Sector - The PBOC's announcement has been perceived as a significant expansion of a structural monetary policy tool created in November 2021, which operates on a "lend first, borrow later" mechanism, allowing financial institutions to issue loans for eligible carbon reduction projects and then seek low-cost refinancing from the central bank [2][3]. - The carbon reduction support tool has mobilized over 1 trillion yuan in green credit since its inception, effectively addressing concerns about the long investment cycles and uncertain returns associated with green projects [2][3][4]. Industrial Sector - The inclusion of energy efficiency upgrades and low-carbon transitions in the support tool signifies that traditional industries such as steel, cement, and chemicals will benefit from long-term, low-interest financial support for technological upgrades and process improvements [2][3][4]. - The tool aims to address the high capital demands and technical challenges faced by high-carbon sectors, ensuring a steady flow of funds to facilitate their green transformation [3][4]. Policy Implications - The ongoing refinement of the carbon reduction support tool's operational rules and standards is expected to accelerate China's green transition, promoting coordinated economic, social, and environmental development [3][4]. - The central government's commitment to green transformation is underscored by its inclusion in the key economic tasks for 2026, emphasizing energy efficiency and carbon reduction as primary objectives [9][10]. Green Manufacturing - The new national standard for green factory evaluation, effective from December 31, 2025, aims to enhance the green manufacturing landscape, aligning with the broader goals of carbon neutrality and sustainable development [9][10][11]. - The green factory certification process is seen as a crucial driver for enterprises to adopt greener practices, thereby improving resource efficiency and reducing production costs [11][12][13]. Future Outlook - The financial sector is expected to evolve from merely providing funds to becoming a "green transformation consultant," offering comprehensive services to businesses undergoing green transitions [4][16]. - The collaborative efforts among financial institutions, enterprises, and society are anticipated to propel the economy towards a sustainable, low-carbon future, contributing to global climate change mitigation efforts [4][16].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-06 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-06 所长 早读 欧美股市集体收跌 观点分享： 周四（2 月 5 日），欧美股市集体收跌，德国 DAX 指数、英国富时 100 指数跌近 1%， 美国三大股指均跌超 1%。科技股普跌，高通跌超 8%，微软跌近 5%，亚马逊跌超 4%，特 斯拉跌逾 2%。市场受制于美国就业数据疲软、企业裁员创 15 年新高、美联储降息预期波 动、芯片供应紧张及贸易政策调整，以及科技巨头 AI 资本开支与盈利兑现预期分化等多重压 力，投资者风险偏好显著回落。亚马逊发布最新财报，预计今年资本支出将达 2000 亿美 元，远超市场预期。这是迄今最新迹象表明美国科技企业短期内不会放缓其巨额人工智能投 资。财报显示，亚马逊第四季度销售净额 2133.9 亿美元，预估 2114.9 亿美元，每股收益 1.95 美元，预估 1.96 美元。公司预计一季度净销售 1735 亿-1785 亿美元，预估 1755.4 亿 美元。亚马逊股价盘后一度跌超 11%。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | 推 | | | | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the need to move beyond mere efficiency in capital circulation to establish a new framework for equitable benefit distribution through institutional innovation and technological empowerment [1] - The article focuses on how China is leveraging blockchain technology to reconstruct process property rights and optimize spatial layouts through national computing power projects, aiming for a more inclusive and sustainable benefit-sharing model [1][2] Group 2 - The re-engineering of processes and reconstruction of property rights through blockchain establishes new rules for the distribution of process benefits, enhancing efficiency in capital movement [2] - Cross-border settlement has transformed from "credit friction costs" to a "foundation for benefit collaboration," with sales revenue for ginseng increasing by 170% due to its green attributes [2] - Smart contracts lock 30% of carbon credit revenues for future ecological compensation, improving cash flow for farmers by 400% and creating long-term development funds for communities [2] Group 3 - The "East Data West Computing" initiative represents a strategic intervention by the state to balance spatial interests across regions, integrating eastern data demand with western green energy resources [3][5] - This initiative has led to a historical breakthrough, with the western region currently receiving about 30% of computing power revenue, while also alleviating energy pressure in the east and reducing national computing costs by 40% [5][6] Group 4 - The case study of Industrial and Commercial Bank's "Chang'an Chain" illustrates a significant reduction in settlement time from 7-10 days to 4 hours, showcasing efficiency improvements and the restructuring of stakeholder relationships through smart contracts [4] - The blockchain technology reduces transaction costs by 40%, transforming saved costs into shared process benefits among all parties involved [4] Group 5 - The strategic shift from "resource curse" to "computing power dividend" aims to reorganize resource endowments nationwide, enhancing the role of the western region in the high-value digital economy [5] - Direct benefits include investments in data center construction and job creation in the west, while indirect benefits help reduce energy pressure in the east and enhance national digital competitiveness [5][6] Group 6 - External pressures, such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), are driving internal reforms in China, compelling companies to adopt green technologies and internalize ecological costs [7] - The establishment of a carbon footprint tracing and trading system transforms global ecological pressures into domestic industrial upgrades and technological innovations [7] Group 7 - The governance logic in China is characterized by a collaborative approach that adjusts production relationships through institutional innovation, optimizes capital movement via technological empowerment, and ultimately aims for equitable benefit distribution [8][10] - The article concludes that China's exploration of process collaboration and spatial balance transcends mere efficiency, showcasing a governance model that integrates institutional rationality with technological advancements for a more inclusive digital civilization [9]

2026年01月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：库存去化 | 7 | | 铅：国内库存持续增加，施压价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：高位高波 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：震荡上行 | 13 | | 钯：ETF持续流入，跟随上涨 | 13 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：刚需采买支撑，盘面宽幅震荡格局 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游减产，关注库存变动 | 19 | | 多晶硅：会议情绪积极，构筑盘面底部支撑 | 19 | | 铁矿石：资金轮动，小幅探涨 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复 | 22 | | 硅铁：商品情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 24 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly with a daily decline of 0.79%, and both trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, rebar production has significantly increased, supply has grown, while demand is weak, leading to the accumulation of fundamental contradictions. Steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. The subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.60%, and both trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil has declined, but inventory is high and the pressure remains. Demand resilience is weakening, and industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, putting pressure on prices. The relatively positive factor is the decent speculative demand. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.51%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Currently, the reduction in iron ore supply is limited, demand is weak, and combined with high inventory pressure, the fundamentals are weak. Iron ore prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. It is expected that iron ore prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the China Development Bank issued over 200 billion yuan in railway loans, a year - on - year increase of 27.8%, and the railway loan balance exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time. By the end of 2025, the total operating mileage of high - speed rail projects supported by the bank exceeded 42,500 kilometers, accounting for over 85% of the "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" high - speed rail network. In the future, it will continue to increase support for railway construction [7]. - According to the Tower Crane Rental Industry Prosperity Index (TPI) in December 2025, the utilization rate of tower crane days was 55.1%, and the utilization rate of maximum lifting moment was 56.8%, 2 and 1.5 percentage points lower than the previous month respectively. The rental price index was 496.52 points, 5.65 points lower than the previous month and 57.283 points lower than the same period last year [8]. - On January 23, 2026, the Australian Anti - Dumping Commission announced a new exporter review investigation of anti - dumping and counter - subsidy on aluminized zinc - coated steel sheets imported from the Chinese mainland at the request of a Chinese exporter. The investigation period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, and the final ruling is expected to be submitted by April 15, 2026 [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet all declined, while the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged. The spot prices of PB powder in Shandong ports increased, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil increased slightly, the SGX swap price decreased, and the iron ore price index declined [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,126 yuan, a decline of 0.79%, with a trading volume of 673,796 lots and an open interest of 1,714,659 lots. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,289 yuan, a decline of 0.60%, with a trading volume of 288,700 lots and an open interest of 1,508,428 lots. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 788.0 yuan, a decline of 0.51%, with a trading volume of 211,744 lots and an open interest of 571,053 lots [12]. Related Charts - The section on related charts mainly presents various inventory and production - related charts of steel and iron ore, including steel inventory, iron ore inventory, and steel mill production conditions, showing the trends and seasonal characteristics of relevant data over multiple years [14][22][27]. 后市研判 - For rebar, supply pressure is increasing as production has risen, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure during the off - season but may be supported by warm commodity sentiment. It will continue to oscillate at a low level, and inventory changes should be monitored [34]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand have weakened. Inventory is high, and demand resilience is weakening. Although speculative demand is decent, the price is under pressure and will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [34]. - For iron ore, the supply reduction is limited, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The price is under pressure but may be supported by warm commodity sentiment. It will maintain an oscillating trend, and steel mills' restocking should be monitored [35].

【环球时报驻德国特约记者 青木 环球时报特约记者 余见】据"德国之声"等多家外媒报道，欧盟与印度将于27日在新德里举行峰会，预计将宣布完成长达近 20年的自由贸易协定谈判，并签署一项新的安全与防务伙伴关系协议。欧洲新闻台26日引述欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇的话说，这项协定将 创建一个覆盖20亿人口的自由贸易区，它是"有史以来最大的贸易协定"。路透社25日引述消息人士的话披露称，印度计划将欧盟进口汽车关税从最高达 110%的水平削减至40%，这是迄今为止该国开放汽车市场"最激进的举措"。欧盟-印度峰会召开的前一天，欧洲理事会主席科斯塔与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱 恩出席了印度"共和国日"庆祝活动。印度总理莫迪说，这凸显印欧关系日益增强及双方对共同价值观的承诺。而在英国《经济学人》杂志网站看来，印度与 欧盟能够下定决心达成自贸协定，要"归功于"美国政府。 《经济学人》称，印欧自贸协定主要是为了促进长期经济合作。预计双方还将签署一项新的安全与防务伙伴关系协议。"这种伙伴关系显示了更高水平的信 任。"德国马歇尔基金会学者莫汉说。当然，双方依旧存在诸多分歧。俄乌冲突仍在持续，而印度不会削弱与俄罗斯的关系，它同时也 ...

1月26日，安阳钢铁股份有限公司2026年度第一期中期票据完成发行。 债券发行总额4亿元，利率4％， 期限2+1+1年，募集资金拟全部用于补充发行人及子公司流动资金。债券主承销商、簿记管理人、存续 期管理机构为中国民生银行，联席主承销商为中原银行，经东方金诚综合评定，发行人主体长期信用评 级为AA+级。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IMF has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, and also increased the growth forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. AI - driven IT investment growth is becoming an important driver for the global economy [2][16]. - The Chinese economy's 2025 "report card" shows that GDP grew by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with the service industry's share in GDP rising to 57.7%, and final consumption contributing 52% to economic growth, while fixed - asset investment declined by 3.8% [2][13]. - In the stock market, on Monday, A - shares had a shrinking - volume oscillation with major indices showing different trends. A - share listed companies' 2025 annual report performance pre - announcements are accelerating, and AI is a strong driver for corporate performance growth [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly - on - quarterly growth of 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous period and 5.4% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from 49.8% in the previous period, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.2%, up from 50.0% in the previous period [1]. - Social financing scale in December 2025 was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [1]. - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous period, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% in the previous period and the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's 2025 economic data shows overall growth in multiple sectors, with a decline in fixed - asset investment, especially in real - estate development investment [2]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit on January 22 to discuss Trump's tariff threat and consider counter - measures, and is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on $93 billion worth of US goods [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit and margin standards for lithium carbonate futures contracts starting from January 21 [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - COMEX gold futures' February contract reached a record high of $4698 per ounce on January 19, approaching the $4700 mark, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of a decline in the US dollar's credit. Gold ETFs and futures are more suitable for short - term investment [4]. - Japan will use 39 billion yen in reserve funds to ensure rare - earth supply [5]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved an increase in tin futures delivery warehouses and their approved storage capacities in Guangdong [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In early January, key steel enterprises' daily crude - steel output was 1.997 million tons, a 10.51% increase from the previous period but a 3.29% decrease year - on - year. Pig - iron and steel production also showed different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [7]. - The first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived in China on January 17, which will enhance the global iron - ore supply [7]. - Shanxi produced over 13 billion tons of coal in 2025, and 65 billion tons during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, an increase of 19 billion tons compared to the 13th Five - Year Plan [7]. - Coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, enriching the risk - management tools for the coal - coke - steel industry chain [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 price forecast for TTF natural gas to 36 euros [9]. - Venezuela has officially launched the export of liquefied petroleum gas [9]. - After Maduro's downfall, many trade and oil companies are competing for the deal to export Venezuelan crude oil to the US [9][10]. - China National Coal Group will promote the clean and efficient use of coal, transforming it from a fuel to "raw material + material" [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The average price of live pigs rebounded this week. On January 16, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.07 yuan per kilogram, up 0.6% from January 9, and the average price this week was 18 yuan per kilogram, up 0.3% from last week [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 19, the central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan after 86.1 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases matured [12]. 3.3.2 Important News - China's 2025 economic data, including population changes, shows a decrease in the population by 339,000 [13][14]. - In December 2025, housing prices in major Chinese cities showed different trends, with some cities' price declines narrowing and Shanghai's new - home prices rising [14]. - The NDRC and the Ministry of Finance will hold press conferences to introduce relevant economic policies [14]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized high - quality development, calling for more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [15]. - The central bank will announce the January LPR on January 20 [15]. - The Supreme People's Procuratorate has made arrangements to use legal power to serve high - quality development, including cracking down on economic crimes and safeguarding the capital market [17]. - The CSRC's 2026 system work meeting has outlined a clear path for capital - market reform [18]. - In 2025, the number and scale of registered insurance asset - management products decreased [18]. - There is a heated discussion about the "2026 time - deposit maturity wave", with different views on the scale, but most banks are not worried [19]. - There are several bond - related events, such as bond rating changes and early redemptions [20]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The bond market showed an overall weak and oscillating trend, with most Treasury - bond futures closing down, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly rising slightly. Some bonds like Vanke and AVIC Industry Finance bonds rose [21]. - The money - market interest rates showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [22][23]. - The yields of some financial bonds were determined in the bidding process, and European bond yields mostly increased [24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9636 on January 20, up 54 basis points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate was 7.0051, up 27 basis points [25]. - The US dollar index fell by 0.32% in New York's late trading, and most non - US currencies rose [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income states that the issuance of new special bonds this year is faster than in previous years but has not significantly accelerated. The planned issuance of local bonds in Q1 2026 is 2.1179 trillion yuan, similar to the same period in 2025 [27]. - CICC Fixed - Income suggests that in the current fluctuating interest - rate bond yield environment, credit - bond yields may follow the fluctuations, especially for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. It also recommends paying attention to short - term trading opportunities and non - financial credit bonds with a remaining term of about 5 years. The future spread of science - and - technology innovation bonds depends on the change in the scale of science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs [27]. - CITIC Securities believes that Trump's tariff threat is a means to test the EU's attitude, and the change of Greenland's territory is difficult to achieve. If the US takes real actions, gold may benefit, the US dollar's credit may be damaged, and European assets may be under pressure [28]. 3.4 Stock Market - On Monday, A - shares had a shrinking - volume oscillation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4114 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%, and the total market turnover was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day. Power - infrastructure, AVIC - related, and Hainan Free - Trade - Port concepts led the gains, while semiconductors and consumer electronics led the losses [32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points, with pharmaceutical stocks leading the decline and aviation stocks rising. South - bound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$2.3 billion [32]. - A - share listed companies' 2025 annual report performance pre - announcements are accelerating, with 156 out of 451 companies reporting positive pre - announcements, and 42 companies expecting a net - profit increase of over 100% year - on - year [32].