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资产配置日报:股债都在彷徨-20251112
HUAXI Securities· 2025-11-12 14:59
Core Insights - The report indicates a macro narrative vacuum, with asset pricing lacking effective drivers, leading to a narrow fluctuation around the 4000-point mark for the Shanghai Composite Index and a slight decline in bond market yields [1] - The overall A-share market experienced a decrease of 0.38%, with a trading volume of 1.96 trillion yuan, down by 49.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The report highlights a "double peak" chip structure in the market, suggesting future fluctuations may be predominant, with resistance at around 6385 points and support at approximately 6220 points [2] Market Performance - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market saw the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rise by 0.85% and 0.16%, respectively, with net inflows of 4.286 billion HKD from southbound funds [1] - Specific stocks like Xiaomi and XPeng received significant net inflows, while Alibaba faced a net outflow of 3.434 billion HKD, indicating a cautious approach towards tech stocks amid performance concerns [4] - The report mentions a clear "dumbbell structure" in the market, with the Shanghai 50 and Wind Micro Index showing gains, while broader indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500 experienced declines [3] Sector Analysis - The report identifies that the market has not yet formed a consensus on sector selection, with various sectors like consumer, healthcare, and technology showing mixed performances [3] - In the Hong Kong market, sectors such as dividends, consumption, and real estate are leading, contrasting with previous trends favoring technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - The bond market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, influenced by new interest rate cut expectations and the finalization of bond fund redemption fee rates [6][8] Commodity Market Insights - The report indicates a slight cooling in overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market, with precious metals experiencing a three-day rise, while "anti-involution" related commodities showed weakness [8] - Precious metals saw a net inflow of 1.6 billion yuan, while the black commodity sector faced a net outflow of 1 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing market pressures [9] - The report highlights the volatility in the polysilicon market, driven by policy expectations and market sentiment, with significant price fluctuations observed [10]