Core Viewpoint - The era of Apple relying on iPhone as its profit pillar is coming to an end, with service business expected to surpass iPhone in annual gross profit contribution by fiscal year 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Transition from Hardware to Services - Apple is undergoing a significant transition where its core profitability is shifting from hardware sales to service business [3]. - By fiscal year 2025, service business is projected to contribute 42% to Apple's annual gross profit, while iPhone's contribution will be 41%, marking the first time services surpass hardware [4]. - This gap is expected to widen by fiscal year 2027, with services contributing 44% and iPhone dropping to 39% [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Growth - The service business is anticipated to show faster revenue growth and higher gross margins compared to product sales, with service revenue expected to grow at a "low double-digit" rate (around 12%) while iPhone revenue is projected to grow at a "mid-single-digit" rate (around 6%) [11]. - The gross margin for service business is significantly higher at 75.6% compared to 34.5% for product business [11]. Group 3: Valuation Implications - The increase in profit contribution from the service business, which has higher margins and lower cyclicality, is expected to lead to a higher valuation multiple for Apple [9]. - The report emphasizes that a higher proportion of gross profit from stable, high-margin service revenue should warrant a higher valuation multiple [12]. - Analysts reaffirmed a "buy" rating for Apple with a target price of $250, supported by the transition to a more stable revenue model [12].

苹果公司的盈利核心正在从硬件销售悄然转向服务业务。 据追风交易台消息，美国银行8月15日发布的一份研究报告，苹果公司正在经历一场意义深远的转变。报告预测，从2025财年起，服务业务将取代 iPhone，成为公司最大的毛利润贡献者。 报告估算，在2025财年，服务业务将贡献苹果年度毛利润的42%，而iPhone的贡献比例为41%。这是服务业务历史性的首次超越。 更重要的是，这一差距预计将持续扩大，到2027财年，服务业务的贡献将达到44%，而iPhone则降至39%。 这一转变的背后是两大驱动力： 美银表示，更快的收入增长，加上更高的毛利率，意味着服务业务应继续比产品业务对苹果年度同比毛利润金额增长做出更大贡献。 而鉴于服务业务更高的利润率和更低的周期性，其利润贡献的增加为苹果赢得了更高的估值倍数。美银认为，这是支撑其250美元目标价和"买 入"评级的关键逻辑。 1. 更高的利润率： 服务业务的盈利能力远超硬件。报告以2025财年第三季度的数据为例，服务业务的毛利率高达75.6%，而产品业务的毛利率 仅为34.5%。 2. 更快的增长速度： 美银模型预测，未来几年服务收入将以"低双位数"（约12%）的年增长率持 ...