盈利质量提升

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美银:苹果的“利润结构”正发生重大变化,美银:这是支撑股价的理由
美股IPO· 2025-08-18 03:54
Core Viewpoint - The era of Apple relying on iPhone as its profit pillar is coming to an end, with service business expected to surpass iPhone in annual gross profit contribution by fiscal year 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Transition from Hardware to Services - Apple is undergoing a significant transition where its core profitability is shifting from hardware sales to service business [3]. - By fiscal year 2025, service business is projected to contribute 42% to Apple's annual gross profit, while iPhone's contribution will be 41%, marking the first time services surpass hardware [4]. - This gap is expected to widen by fiscal year 2027, with services contributing 44% and iPhone dropping to 39% [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Growth - The service business is anticipated to show faster revenue growth and higher gross margins compared to product sales, with service revenue expected to grow at a "low double-digit" rate (around 12%) while iPhone revenue is projected to grow at a "mid-single-digit" rate (around 6%) [11]. - The gross margin for service business is significantly higher at 75.6% compared to 34.5% for product business [11]. Group 3: Valuation Implications - The increase in profit contribution from the service business, which has higher margins and lower cyclicality, is expected to lead to a higher valuation multiple for Apple [9]. - The report emphasizes that a higher proportion of gross profit from stable, high-margin service revenue should warrant a higher valuation multiple [12]. - Analysts reaffirmed a "buy" rating for Apple with a target price of $250, supported by the transition to a more stable revenue model [12].