1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain in a weak - oscillating pattern, with the price range projected to be between 50,000 yuan/ton and 65,000 yuan/ton [2][58]. - The supply of lithium salts is growing against the trend, while the demand is revised downwards due to trade frictions. In 2025, the supply - demand surplus of lithium salts is 299,000 tons, with production expected to reach 1.783 million tons and demand at 1.484 million tons. The supply growth rate of 34% far exceeds the demand growth rate of 21% [2][11][55]. - China has achieved a breakthrough in the self - sufficiency of its own and equity resources, weakening the premium ability of overseas miners. In 2025, China's lithium supply has reached 760,000 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the global supply, and the domestic demand's import dependence has decreased from 43% to 25% [2][15][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 Lithium Carbonate Trend Review - In 2025 H1, the market price of lithium carbonate continued to decline compared to 2024, with the price ranging from 60,000 to 82,000 yuan/ton. Except for a slight increase in January, the price trended downwards throughout the rest of H1 [6]. - In January 2025, under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the supply contraction was more prominent, coupled with reduced imports and rising costs, the price was firm. The import of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased, domestic production decreased after the end of the increase in December, and the inventory was transferred to the downstream [8]. - From February to March 2025, with both supply and demand increasing, the price oscillated downwards. Domestic production and operating rates recovered after the Spring Festival, but imports decreased. The lithium - battery industry was gradually warming up, but there was a structural differentiation in cathode materials. Social inventory reached a new high, and cost support weakened [9]. - From April to June 2025, with strong supply and weak demand, the price declined rapidly. The US tariff policy hit long - term demand. Cathode material production profit was at the break - even point, and production enthusiasm weakened. The restart of an overseas mine created an expected supply increase, and lithium carbonate inventory remained stable, leading to a decline and then stabilization of lithium ore prices [10]. 3.2 Global Excess is Still Expanding, and the Domestic Circular Market is Self - Sufficient 3.2.1 Global Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Update - In 2025, the supply - demand surplus of lithium salts is 299,000 tons, significantly larger than the 103,000 tons in 2024, and it is expected to further expand to 550,000 tons in 2026. The supply growth rate of 34% far exceeds the demand growth rate of 21%, and the market may face long - term inventory accumulation pressure [11]. - The global lithium supply increment is concentrated in new projects. In 2025, the production is expected to reach 1.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 553,000 tons or 34%. Different resource types and regions contribute to the growth, with significant differences in growth momentum [12]. - Global lithium demand still maintains growth but at a slower pace. In 2025, the demand is expected to be 1.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 184,000 tons or 21%. The demand structure is still dominated by power batteries, but the growth rate of energy - storage battery demand has declined [13]. 3.2.2 Balance Sheet from the Perspective after Decoupling - China has achieved a breakthrough in the self - sufficiency of its own and equity resources, weakening the premium ability of overseas miners. In 2025, China's lithium supply has reached 760,000 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the global supply, and the domestic demand's import dependence has decreased from 43% to 25% [15]. - In the context of Sino - US trade friction and potential decoupling risks, the global lithium - battery industry chain is being re - structured. China's domestic lithium carbonate demand in 2025 is expected to be 1.008 million tons, accounting for 67.9% of the global demand, but the trade environment is reshaping the demand logic [17]. 3.2.3 High - Frequency Supply - Demand - The global lithium market is in an oversupply state in 2025. The surplus in H2 is slightly lower than that in H1. The surplus volume in Q3 is expected to further expand from July to October. In Q4, the market is different from previous years, with a weaker and more sluggish incremental performance from November to December. The end - of - year impulse demand has been advanced, and the market is in an oversupply pattern in Q4, with only a small gap in December [19]. 3.3 The Lithium - Battery Industry Chain is in a Stage of Passive Inventory Accumulation and Profit Negative Feedback - The lithium - battery industry is in a stage of passive inventory accumulation and profit negative feedback, with a volume - increasing and price - decreasing operation logic. In 2025, the demand for the lithium - salt industry is 1.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21%, but the industry profit is being squeezed. The probability of entering the volume - increasing and price - decreasing mode in H2 is high [24]. - New energy vehicle inventories have reached a record high, and the profit is in a downward cycle. Price promotions have increased the inventory pressure on the supply chain, and car companies have compressed the payment period to suppliers to ease the capital pressure [27]. - Battery enterprise inventories continue to reach new highs, and the profit is below the break - even point, with a large inventory accumulation pressure [32]. - Cathode material enterprises have shifted from passive inventory accumulation to active inventory reduction. The industry pattern is being reshaped, with "low - end overcapacity and high - end shortage", and some small and medium - sized enterprises have withdrawn from the market [37]. - Lithium salt enterprise inventories are at a peak level, and the profit of processing enterprises is approaching the full - cost line, but there is still profit at the cash - cost level [41]. - Lithium mine profit is among the highest in the industry, at 60 - 145%, and the inventory is rising from the bottom [47]. 3.4 Unordered Capacity Clearance Period, Distortion and Downward Shift of the Cost Curve - The lithium industry is in an unordered capacity clearance period. High - cost enterprises and new -投产 enterprises have complex reasons for not reducing production, and the industry's clearance path is expected to be long [49]. - The cost - curve model based on corporate financial costs to anchor the bottom of lithium prices has failed. The production cost disclosed by enterprises is continuously falling, and the cost curve is shifting downwards. Based on different models, the estimated integrated mine cost corresponding to downstream demand in 2025 is 53,796 yuan/ton and 44,748 yuan/ton respectively, and the supply at around 60,000 yuan/ton still shows an oversupply pattern [50]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The supply of lithium salts is growing against the trend, and the demand is revised downwards. The supply - demand surplus is becoming more severe. China has achieved a breakthrough in resource self - sufficiency. The demand has been overdrawn in advance, with continuous inventory accumulation from July to October and a weak peak season in Q4 [55][56]. - The lithium - battery industry chain is in a stage of passive inventory accumulation and profit negative feedback. The cost - curve model based on financial costs has failed, and the cost curve is shifting downwards [57]. - In the second half of 2025, it is expected that the lithium carbonate price will remain in a weak - oscillating pattern, with the price range projected to be between 50,000 yuan/ton and 65,000 yuan/ton [58].