1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures and spot has risen, and the basis has weakened. The 2605 contract closed at 168,440 yuan/ton, up 24,580 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2607 contract closed at 168,400 yuan/ton, up 25,300 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price increased by 9,000 yuan/ton week-on-week to 158,000 yuan/ton [2]. - The supply side shows that the weekly output of domestic lithium salt plants has increased, and the weekly shipment volume of Australian mines has declined. The shortage of ore has gradually manifested in the domestic market, and the ore processing fee has dropped to 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton, with an inquiry price of 17,000 yuan/ton [3]. - On the demand side, downstream enterprises generally buy and replenish inventory at low prices. The energy storage terminal is strong, and some battery cells report that energy storage orders are scheduled until May - June. In April, the total production of lithium batteries in China increased by 7.3% month-on-month, and energy storage cells accounted for 41.3%. In the automotive sector, although the domestic sales data is not good, the increase in single - vehicle battery capacity and the export demand of electric vehicles can make up for the decline in domestic sales [4]. - In the future, the contradiction on the ore side may further ferment. It is recommended to wait for the callback to the low level for layout. The price range of the futures main contract is expected to be 150,000 - 190,000 yuan/ton. There is no recommendation for inter - period trading, and upstream and downstream enterprises are recommended to use options tools to hedge risks when appropriate [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week, the lithium carbonate futures prices of 2605 and 2607 contracts increased, and the spot price also rose. The SMM basis (2605 contract) weakened by 2,020 yuan/ton to - 7,660 yuan/ton, and the 2605 - 2607 contract spread was + 40 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton month - on - month [2]. 3.2 Upstream Supply of Lithium Salt - Lithium Ore - The weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate has increased slightly, mainly concentrated in the spodumene and salt lake sectors. The shipment volume of Australian mines has declined, and the supply of domestic raw materials has decreased marginally. The ore shortage in Zimbabwe has not improved, and some enterprises may jointly shut down local mines if there is no new progress [3]. - The ore processing fee has dropped to 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton, and there is an inquiry price of 17,000 yuan/ton, indicating a deepening shortage of ore [3]. 3.3 Mid - stream Consumption of Lithium Salt - Lithium Salt Products - There are multiple charts showing the price trends of lithium carbonate in different regions, the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade to battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide [15][19]. - The weekly output and monthly output of domestic lithium carbonate, as well as the monthly output of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, are presented in the charts [18][20]. - The monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate has increased this week, with a total inventory of 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons from last week. The futures warehouse receipts have a total cancellation of 3,989 lots, with a total of 30,751 lots [4]. 3.4 Downstream Consumption of Lithium Salt - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The monthly production and monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of ternary materials are presented in the charts [21][22]. - The import and export volume of ternary materials and the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries are also shown in the charts [22]. - The production of domestic power lithium batteries and various types of lithium batteries is presented in the charts [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with last week's production at 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The production in February 2026 was 83,090 tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials has increased. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 106,718 tons last week, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase [8]. - The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate is 147,976 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 1,854 yuan/ton. The cost of imported lithium mica is 137,582 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a profit of 5,025 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 144,000 - 154,840 [9]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk points are the impact of production suspension, reduction, and maintenance plans, and the start time of industry clearance [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - **Demand - side**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 106,718 tons last week, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate is 147,976 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 1,854 yuan/ton. The cost of imported lithium mica is 137,582 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a profit of 5,025 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Market judgment**: The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 144,000 - 154,840. The fundamentals are bullish, the basis is bearish, the inventory situation is mixed, the disk is bearish, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions [9]. - **Likely factors**: The production suspension and reduction plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile are positive factors. The continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline is a negative factor [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market price data**: The price of 6% lithium spodumene decreased by 1.41% to 2,028 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica concentrate decreased by 1.12% to 4,400 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.68% to 146,500 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.71% to 143,500 yuan/ton; the price of micro - powder lithium hydroxide decreased by 2.36% to 145,000 yuan/ton; the price of coarse - particle lithium hydroxide decreased by 3.43% to 140,800 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - side data**: The weekly operating rate was 73.46% with no change; the daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 147,976 yuan/ton with no change; the monthly processing cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.72% to 20,800 yuan/ton; the daily production profit of lithium spodumene decreased by 103.51% to - 1,854 yuan/ton; the daily production cost of lithium mica was 137,582 yuan/ton with no change; the monthly processing cost of lithium mica decreased by 0.51% to 34,890 yuan/ton; the daily production profit of lithium mica decreased by 20.50% to 5,025 yuan/ton; the total weekly inventory decreased by 0.09% to 98,873 tons; the smelter inventory increased by 1.94% to 16,608 tons; the downstream inventory increased by 1.00% to 46,105 tons; the other inventory decreased by 2.32% to 36,160 tons; the monthly total production decreased by 15.13% to 83,090 tons; the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 31.07% to 438,336 tons; the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.61% to 26,426.79 tons; the monthly net import volume decreased by 2.11% to 25,830.71 tons; the supply - demand balance was - 6,821 tons [18]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 7.67% to 65%; the monthly production decreased by 7.67% to 300,250 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 11.76% to 60%; the monthly production decreased by 12.20% to 348,200 tons; the monthly export increased by 14.83% to 6,529,967 kg; the weekly inventory increased by 0.89% to 106,718 tons; the monthly operating rate of ternary precursor decreased by 8.16% to 45%; the monthly production decreased by 8.98% to 78,650 tons; the monthly operating rate of ternary material decreased by 15.77% to 63.23%; the monthly production decreased by 12.77% to 70,720 tons; the monthly total battery loading volume decreased by 37.38% to 26,300 GWh; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery decreased by 39.36% to 5,700 GWh; the loading volume of ternary battery decreased by 37.00% to 20,600 GWh; the production of new energy vehicles decreased by 39.41% to 1,041,000 vehicles; the sales decreased by 19.05% to 765,000 vehicles; the export decreased by 6.62% to 282,000 vehicles; the penetration rate increased by 5.21% to 42.38%; the retail - to - wholesale ratio of hybrid vehicles decreased by 11.96% to 0.54; the retail - to - wholesale ratio of pure - electric vehicles decreased by 3.80% to 0.66; the dealer inventory warning index decreased by 5.39% to 56.2; the dealer inventory index increased by 12.98% to 1.48 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed an increase last week, with a production of 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The demand - side saw an increase in the inventory of sample enterprises. The cost - side had different profit situations for different raw materials. The overall inventory was slightly reduced, and the market was in a state of tight supply - demand balance with sentiment fluctuations caused by news [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium sample enterprises was 106,718 tons, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 147,976 yuan/ton, a 1.85% daily decrease, with a loss of 911 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 137,582 yuan/ton, a 2.45% daily decrease, with a profit of 6,321 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm was low. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 32,231 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On March 20, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5,140 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 16,608 tons, a 1.94% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 46,105 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 36,160 tons, a 2.32% week - on - week decrease. The overall inventory was 98,873 tons, a 0.08% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: The price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, lower than the historical average. The demand - leading situation weakened, and lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 139,100 - 149,780 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate was 73.46%, unchanged from the previous week. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 147,976 yuan/ton, a 1.86% decrease from the previous day. The monthly processing cost of lithium spodumene was 20,800 yuan/ton, a 0.72% decrease from the previous month. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 tons, a 15.13% decrease from the previous month. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 438,336 tons, a 31.07% decrease from the previous month [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate of phosphoric acid iron was 60%, an 8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The monthly production was 300,250 tons, a 7.67% decrease from the previous month. The monthly operating rate of phosphoric acid iron lithium was 45%, a 4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The monthly production was 78,650 tons, an 8.98% decrease from the previous month. The monthly power battery loading volume was 26,300 GWh, a 37.38% decrease from the previous month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures declined, with the 2605 contract closing at 143,860 yuan/ton, down 8,220 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2607 contract closing at 143,100 yuan/ton, down 8,300 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price dropped 10,000 yuan/ton to 149,000 yuan/ton week-on-week [3]. - The supply of domestic lithium salt plants increased week-on-week, and the shipment volume of Australian mines remained high. The weekly production of domestic lithium carbonate increased slightly, mainly concentrated in the spodumene and mica sectors. Overseas, the situation in Zimbabwe may affect the supply of lithium ore [4]. - Downstream buyers generally replenished their stocks at low prices. In the short term, energy storage is less affected by geopolitical events. With the rise in oil and gas prices, the demand for lithium batteries will further increase. However, the transportation problem of sulfur in the Middle East will affect the production of cathode materials downstream, thereby suppressing lithium prices [5]. - This week, lithium carbonate continued to be destocked, but the destocking amplitude narrowed, with the industry inventory at 98,873 tons, a decrease of 86 tons from last week. Futures warehouse receipts were cancelled in total, with 1,715 lots cancelled this week, and the total number of lots was 34,740 [6]. - The supply side shows a high domestic supply, an increase in the shipment volume of Australian mines overseas, and a marginal boost in raw material imports in the future. The demand side shows that the downstream production schedule in March generally maintained a high - level operation. The market is more concerned about the changes in the demand side. It is recommended to wait for the callback to a low level to make a layout [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - This week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell, and the basis weakened. The 2605 - 2607 contract spread strengthened by 80 yuan/ton week-on-week to +760 yuan/ton [3]. 2. Upstream Supply of Lithium Salt - Lithium Ore - Domestic lithium carbonate weekly production increased slightly, mainly concentrated in the spodumene and mica sectors. The shipment volume of Australian mines remained high, which will supplement the domestic raw material imports to some extent. The situation in Zimbabwe may affect the supply of lithium ore [4]. 3. Mid - stream Consumption of Lithium Salt - Lithium Salt Products - The price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the industry inventory destocking amplitude narrowed. The downstream buyers replenished their stocks at low prices [3][6]. 4. Downstream Consumption of Lithium Salt - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The production schedule of cathode material plants in March increased month - on - month, with the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate cathode increasing by 18% and that of ternary cathode increasing by 21%. The domestic energy storage terminal had 26 project wins last week, with a total winning scale of 1.72GW/5.52GWh, a week - on - week decrease of 10.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.99% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on the lithium carbonate market is a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations caused by news. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 145,740 - 156,500 [10][14]. - In terms of fundamentals, it is bullish. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, also bullish. The disk is neutral, and the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. In the future, supply is expected to increase, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [10][11]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Bullish. Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 23,426 tons, a 3.70% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, while the smelter inventory decreased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly and was lower than the historical average [7][8]. - **Basis**: On March 18, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5,380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 145,740 - 156,500 [10]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 1.17% day - on - day, resulting in a loss. The cost of purchasing lithium mica decreased by 2.47% day - on - day, resulting in a profit. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, which is neutral [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [11]. - **Expectation**: In February 2026, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [11]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of various contracts decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous values. For example, the 05 contract decreased from 155,320 to 150,120, a decrease of 5,200 or 3.35% [17]. - **Basis**: The basis of various contracts increased to varying degrees compared with the previous values. For example, the basis of the 05 contract increased from 2,680 to 5,380, an increase of 2,700 or 100.75% [17]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 35,769, a decrease of 696 or 1.91% compared with the previous value [17]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and other products changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased from 2,185 to 2,157 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 or 1.28% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Production**: The production of lithium ore from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake has changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene decreased from 50,200 to 60,100 tons, a decrease of 9,900 or 16.47% [20]. - **Import**: The import volume of lithium ore and lithium carbonate has changed. For example, the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased from 677,528 to 628,032 tons, a decrease of 49,496 or 7.31% [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore shows different situations in different months. For example, in February 2026, the supply - demand balance was - 6,821 tons [20]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production**: The production of lithium carbonate from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake has changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate decreased from 97,900 to 83,090 tons, a decrease of 14,810 or 15.13% [20]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volume of lithium carbonate has changed. For example, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate increased from 22,055.19 to 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 or 8.77% [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different situations in different months. For example, in February 2026, the supply - demand balance was - 6,821 tons [40]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources such as smelting and causticizing has changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium hydroxide decreased from 26,950 to 22,940 tons, a decrease of 4,010 or 14.88% [20]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed. For example, the monthly net export volume of lithium hydroxide decreased from 1,937.11 to 1,225.17 tons, a decrease of 711.94 or 36.75% [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different situations in different months. For example, in February 2026, the supply - demand balance was - 1,412 tons [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Purchasing Lithium Spodumene Concentrate**: The cost decreased, resulting in a loss in production [11]. - **Cost and Profit of Purchasing Lithium Mica Concentrate**: The cost decreased, resulting in a profit in production [11]. - **Cost and Profit of Recycling Lithium - Containing Materials**: The cost is generally high, and the production enthusiasm is low [11]. - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Carbonate Import**: It shows different profit situations in different periods [49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total inventory decreased slightly, with the smelter inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [8]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory situation also shows certain changes [57]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Power Battery**: The production, sales, and installation volume of power batteries have changed. For example, the monthly installation volume of power batteries decreased from 42,000 GWh to 26,300 GWh, a decrease of 15,700 or 37.38% [20]. - **Energy - Storage Battery**: The production, sales, and installation volume of energy - storage batteries have changed. For example, the monthly production of energy - storage battery cells shows a certain trend [63]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary precursors have changed. For example, the price of 5 - series (single - crystal/power - type) ternary precursors remained unchanged at 104,400 yuan/ton [17]. - **Production and Supply - Demand Balance**: The production and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors show different situations in different months. For example, in February 2026, the supply - demand balance was 804 tons [69]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary materials have changed. For example, the price of 5 - series (single - crystal/power - type) ternary materials decreased from 193,500 to 192,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 or 0.36% [17]. - **Production and Supply - Demand Balance**: The production and supply - demand balance of ternary materials show different situations in different months [72]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed. For example, the price of power - type iron phosphate lithium decreased from 55,475 to 54,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 605 or 1.09% [17]. - **Production and Supply - Demand Balance**: The production and supply - demand balance of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium show different situations in different months [76]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed. For example, the monthly production of new energy vehicles decreased from 1,718,000 to 1,041,000, a decrease of 677,000 or 39.41% [20]. - **Sales Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles shows an upward trend [85].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: March 18, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Analysis 1. Market Conditions - Carbonate lithium futures fluctuated downward, with the total open interest increasing slightly by 2,309 lots. The 05 - 09 spread on the market remained at a backwardation of 60. The market's risk - aversion sentiment returned, and the upward movement of lithium prices was frustrated [12]. - The spot market made up for the price increase. The price of spot electric carbon rose by 2,000 to 157,000 in the evening session. Upstream suppliers were reluctant to sell, and downstream buyers were observing. Australian ore prices rose by 10 to 2,170, mica ore prices remained flat at 2,325, and the prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate materials were both unchanged [12]. - Currently, the carbonate lithium market features high production, high imports, and high demand. The inventory reduction speed of domestic carbonate lithium has slowed down. There are still macro uncertainties, and the sentiment of capital speculation is not high. It is expected that the carbonate lithium price will continue to show a fluctuating trend [12]. 2. Industry News - Japan and the United States will reach an agreement on the joint development of rare earths, lithium, and copper at this week's summit [13]. - Zangge Mining stated at its performance briefing that the Mami Cuo Salt Lake it is developing is located in the Ali region of Tibet, mainly containing surface brine. The Mami Cuo Salt Lake project uses advanced lithium extraction technologies such as adsorption and membrane separation. It is planned to be built in two phases with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of carbonate lithium. The first - phase project is planned to have an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of carbonate lithium. As of now, the main workshop of the project has been enclosed, and it is in the equipment installation stage, progressing smoothly according to the construction plan. The first - phase project of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake is expected to be fully put into production in the third quarter of 2026 and enter the capacity - release period [13]. - Diversified mining giant Rio Tinto announced that after taking over the direct management of Nemaska Lithium in February, it decided to slow down the construction progress of the Bécancour lithium hydroxide conversion project in Quebec, Canada, after in - depth review. Rio Tinto said that the review concluded that adjustments were needed to put the project on a more stable and sustainable development path. Therefore, construction activities will be reduced for the rest of this year, and efforts will be made to complete the optimization work. This decision was reached through consensus between Rio Tinto and the Nemaska Lithium board of directors. Rio Tinto revealed that the engineering design of the Bécancour project has been fully completed, and the current construction progress has exceeded 70%. It was reported that the construction progress of the project reached 60% at the end of 2025, and the engineering design was completed simultaneously. It was originally planned to start commissioning work in 2026, with the goal of achieving the first commercial production in 2028. During the optimization phase, some construction activities will continue, while the rest will be suspended or postponed. The number of on - site contractor employees is expected to temporarily decrease. Rio Tinto is working closely with its contracting partners to provide support to the affected personnel [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that last week's lithium carbonate production was 22,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.51%, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. The import volume in February was 21,800 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.27% [8][9]. - On the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 100,529 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.61%, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 17,811 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 154,280 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.02%, with a production profit of - 1,102 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 154,659 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production profit of - 4,984 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production profit and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - The overall evaluation is that under the tight balance of supply and demand, the market is affected by sentiment fluctuations caused by news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate between 150,660 - 162,540 yuan/ton [9]. - The positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. The negative factors are the continuous high supply of the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 22,590 tons, a 3.51% week - on - week increase. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 tons, and next month's production is predicted to be 106,390 tons, a 28.04% increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 tons, and next month's import is predicted to be 26,000 tons, a 19.27% increase [8][9]. - **Demand**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary material sample enterprises increased last week. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month and inventory will decrease [8][9]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased slightly, and the cost of purchased lithium mica remained unchanged. The production of the recycling end was unprofitable, while the salt lake end had sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Comprehensive Evaluation**: The fundamentals are bullish; the basis is neutral; the inventory is neutral; the disk is neutral; the main position is bearish. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate between 150,660 - 162,540 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: Positive factors are the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in imports from Chile. Negative factors are the high - level supply of the ore/salt lake end [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate on March 6 was 155,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 910 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate decreased, and the monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide showed different trends [19]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate and production of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary precursors, and ternary materials decreased. The monthly power battery loading volume and new energy vehicle production and sales also declined [19]. - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly week - on - week, with the inventory of smelters decreasing and the inventory of downstream enterprises increasing. The inventory of lithium hydroxide also showed different trends [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving logic for the future price of lithium carbonate futures will focus on factors such as the progress and rhythm of global lithium resource capacity release, the production scheduling and capacity utilization of the entire lithium salt - cathode material - battery cell industry chain, the production and sales of terminal new energy vehicles, and the sustainability of demand growth in the energy storage field [1]. - In the short - term, without sudden major events, the price of lithium carbonate futures is expected to fluctuate widely between 130,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the demand growth logic of the three downstream sectors of energy storage, new energy passenger vehicles, and new energy commercial vehicles remains unchanged, and the industry fundamentals still strongly support the long - term value of lithium carbonate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - The price of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated and rose this week. The future price trends will be determined by multiple factors including global lithium resource capacity, production scheduling of the industry chain, new energy vehicle production and sales, and energy storage demand [1]. - Zimbabwe's lithium - related policies have raised concerns about insufficient global lithium supply growth. The implementation of these policies may impact the global lithium trade pattern around April - May 2026. Meanwhile, the progress of the lithium mine incident in Jiangxi, China, requires attention [2]. - On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic lithium salt plants is rising, with a planned production increase of about 27% in March, driving up the demand for lithium concentrate procurement and potentially leading to a shortage of lithium mines. On the demand side, the downstream production scheduling increased by about 20% in March, but the acceptance of high - priced lithium carbonate is low [2]. - Technically, the lithium carbonate futures show a double - top structure, with 190,000 yuan/ton as a strong resistance level and 130,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton as support levels. Currently, the market sentiment is bullish [2]. - **Strategy Recommendations** - Adjust the trading strategy from unilateral buying on dips to trading within a wide - range oscillation. Buy on dips when the price reaches the lower support level and take profits when it hits the upper resistance level [5]. - For lithium salt production enterprises, conduct sell - hedging when the price rebounds to a high level. For downstream cathode and battery cell enterprises, conduct buy - hedging when the price drops to the lower level [5]. - Given the high market volatility, adopt a strategy of selling volatility, mainly by selling out - of - the - money put options [5]. - For lithium - battery enterprises, different hedging strategies are recommended based on different scenarios such as procurement, sales, and inventory management, with corresponding recommended hedging ratios [9][11] 3.2 Market Information - On March 5, 2026, the government work report was released [12]. - On March 6, the five - department plan in Fujian Province proposed to develop marine battery power technology, including improving battery performance and promoting the research and development of related technologies [12]. - On March 6, BYD released its second - generation blade battery [12]. 3.3 Futures and Price Data - **Price and Volume Interpretation** - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the weighted index contract was 156,220 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11.32%. The trading volume was about 282,800 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 22.90%. The open interest was about 628,700 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 82,900 lots [16]. - The LC2605 - LC2609 month - spread showed a Contango structure, with a week - on - week increase of 620 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 36,330 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2,131 lots [16]. - Technically, the price showed a double - top pattern, and attention should be paid to the support levels at 150,000 and 140,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Option Situation** - The 20 - day historical volatility of lithium carbonate futures remained at a high level, showing a downward trend. The implied volatility of at - the - money options also fluctuated within a narrow range at a high - level. The PCR of option open interest showed a weakening trend [18]. - It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of selling put options [18]. - **Fund Flow** - The long and short positions remained stable this week [21]. - **Month - spread Structure** - The overall month - spread structure showed a phased Back structure, with contracts in the first half of the year being more expensive than those in the second half [23]. - **CME and LME Lithium Hydroxide Futures** - The prices of CME lithium hydroxide futures showed different changes in various contracts, with some contracts rising and some falling [30]. - Information on LME lithium hydroxide futures was also provided, but no specific analysis was made in the report [33]. - **Basis Structure** - The basis fluctuated significantly this week, but it was within the normal range by the end of Friday [35]. - **Spot Price Data** - The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the prices of lithium ore and lithium salt generally declined, while the price of battery - grade lithium fluoride increased [40][41]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industry Chain** - The profit of lithium carbonate production enterprises weakened this week, turning negative [43]. - The profits of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials in cathode materials were stable, cobalt acid lithium fluctuated, and manganese acid lithium weakened marginally. The profits of hexafluorophosphate lithium and electrolyte also showed a marginal weakening trend [46]. - **Import and Export Profits** - No detailed analysis was provided, but relevant data charts were presented [54] 3.5 Fundamental Situation - **Lithium Ore Supply** - **Domestic Mine Production**: The production of sample lithium pyroxene and lithium mica mines showed different seasonal trends [58]. - **Overseas Mine Imports**: The import volume of lithium concentrate from different countries was presented, with data showing the import volume from Australia, Brazil, and Zimbabwe [60]. - **Lithium Ore Inventory**: The total available inventory of lithium ore decreased this week, with a significant decrease in the trade - available inventory. The port inventory also decreased [61]. - **Upstream Lithium Salt Supply** - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The overall operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises increased, with the operating rate of salt - lake production lines increasing the most. The total output also increased [63]. - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total inventory decreased, with a decrease in smelter inventory and an increase in downstream inventory [76]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: Information on the monthly output and operating rate of lithium hydroxide production by different processes was provided [88][89]. - **Mid - stream Material Factory Supply** - **Material Factory Output**: The output of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the output of ternary materials decreased. The output of cobalt acid lithium and manganese acid lithium showed different changes [94]. - **Material Factory Inventory**: The inventory of different materials showed different seasonal trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [109][110][111][113] - **Downstream Battery Cell Supply** - The weekly output of power battery cells increased, with the output of iron - lithium - type battery cells increasing more significantly [114]. - The monthly output of power, energy - storage, and consumer - type battery cells showed different seasonal trends [117]. - **New Energy Vehicles** - **New Energy Passenger Vehicles**: The weekly sales of domestic new energy passenger vehicles decreased, and the penetration rate also decreased [123]. - **New Energy Commercial Vehicles**: The production of new energy commercial vehicles and the sales of new energy heavy - duty trucks were presented, with relevant data and seasonal trend charts [131][133]. - **Automobile Inventory**: The inventory warning index of domestic automobile dealers was presented, showing a seasonal trend [137]. - **Energy Storage** - The total中标 power and capacity of energy - storage projects were presented, along with the seasonal trend chart of the total中标 capacity [139].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,822 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.11%, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, lithium carbonate production was 83,090 physical tons, and next month's production is predicted to be 106,390 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. The January - February 2026 import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 physical tons, and next month's import volume is predicted to be 26,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.27% [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 92,556 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.50%. The inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,234 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost side: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 151,494 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The production profit is - 325 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 154,659 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The production profit is - 4,249 yuan/ton, also showing a loss. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production profit and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On March 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 140 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 18,382 tons, with no month - on - month change, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 43,757 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.34%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 38,140 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.51%, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 99,373 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%, lower than the historical average [8]. - Market: The MA20 of the market is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased [8]. - Expectation: Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 148,840 - 161,120 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,822 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.11%, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, lithium carbonate production was 83,090 physical tons, and next month's production is predicted to be 106,390 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. The January - February 2026 import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 physical tons, and next month's import volume is predicted to be 26,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.27% [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 92,556 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.50%. The inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,234 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost side: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 151,494 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The production profit is - 325 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 154,659 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The production profit is - 4,249 yuan/ton, also showing a loss. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production profit and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On March 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 140 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 18,382 tons, with no month - on - month change, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 43,757 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.34%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 38,140 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.51%, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 99,373 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%, lower than the historical average [8]. - Market: The MA20 of the market is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased [8]. - Expectation: Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 148,840 - 161,120 [8]. - Bullish factors: Lithium mica manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, and the month - on - month decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile [9]. - Bearish factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [10]. - Main logic: Under the tight balance of supply and demand, the market sentiment fluctuates due to news [11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of upstream products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium salts, as well as the prices and basis of the market, are presented. For example, the price of 6% lithium spodumene is 2,155 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.28%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 156,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.30% [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate is 85.72%, with no change. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene is 151,494 yuan/ton, with no change. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in February 2026 was 83,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% [16]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate is 6.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14%. The monthly production is 300,250 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.67%. The monthly operating rate of ternary precursors is 67.83%, with no change. The monthly production is 70,720 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.77% [16]. - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate is 99,373 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%. The smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, with no change. The downstream inventory is 43,757 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.34% [16]. - **Position Data**: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of lithium carbonate showed an increase last week, with a weekly output of 21,822 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.11%, higher than the historical average. The production in February 2026 was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.27% [8][9]. - On the demand side, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.50% month - on - month to 92,556 tons last week, while the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials decreased by 2.99% month - on - month to 17,234 tons. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - In terms of cost, the CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased day - on - day, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 158,432 yuan/ton, with a daily profit of 446 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 154,659 yuan/ton, with a daily loss of 6,209 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [9]. - The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 147,240 - 159,760 [9]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight balance of supply and demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The supply of lithium carbonate increased last week, and the production and import volume are expected to increase next month. The demand side shows different trends in the inventory of different materials, and the overall demand is expected to strengthen next month [8][9]. - **Cost Analysis**: Different raw material costs have different profit situations. The salt lake end has obvious cost advantages, while the recycling end has low production enthusiasm [9]. - **Market Judgment**: The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in a certain range, and the market is affected by the tight balance of supply and demand and news [9][12]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile; negative factors include the continuous high supply of ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production and import volume are expected to increase next month. The production of different raw materials such as lithium ore, lithium mica, and salt lake has different trends, and the import volume of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate also shows certain changes [8][9][17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials shows different trends. The production, export, and battery loading volume of related products in the downstream also change to varying degrees. The demand for new energy vehicles also shows a certain decline [17]. - **Cost and Profit Data**: Different raw materials have different cost - profit situations, including spodumene, lithium mica, and recycling materials. The cost of salt lake production is significantly lower, with sufficient profit space [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased month - on - month, but the inventory of different links such as smelters and downstream has different trends [9]. - **Market Data**: The price of lithium carbonate and related products shows certain fluctuations, and the basis shows a state of spot premium over futures [9][15].