1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,138 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,640 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.51%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,296 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45%. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 80,393 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.34%, with a production profit of 3,613 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica was 84,868 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 2,995 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has strong motivation [8] - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 141,543 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters was 46,846 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.73%; the downstream inventory was 51,507 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.68%; other inventory was 43,190 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.46% [8] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish trend. It is predicted that the production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 will be 84,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%, and the import volume will be 18,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.62%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, lower than the historical average, and the demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 80,940 - 84,580 yuan/ton [8] - **Basis**: On August 21, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,440 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium, showing a bullish trend [8] - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force decreased, showing a bearish trend [8] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market**: The daily opening rate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The monthly import volume was 13,845.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.77%. The monthly net import volume was 17,267.97 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.22%. The supply - demand balance was - 1090 tons, a significant change from the previous month [17] - **Lithium Hydroxide Market**: The monthly production was 25,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94%. The monthly net export volume was 4,777.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%. The supply - demand balance was - 3149 tons, a change from the previous month [17] - **Downstream Market**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 72,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.71%. The monthly production of ternary materials was 25,130 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. The monthly power battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.95% [17] 3.3 Lithium Ore Supply - **Price and Production**: The price of spodumene and lithium mica has shown certain fluctuations. The production of domestic lithium mines has also changed over time. For example, the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has different trends in different years [23] - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed. The inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has shown different trends in different years [23] 3.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly opening rate and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) have different trends. The monthly capacity of lithium carbonate has also changed over time [28] - **Import and Supply - Demand Balance**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has shown different situations in different months [33] 3.5 Lithium Hydroxide Supply - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) have different trends. The monthly capacity of lithium hydroxide has also changed over time [36] - **Export and Supply - Demand Balance**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has shown different situations in different months [39] 3.6 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in different links (smelters, downstream, and others) have different trends [49] - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in different links (smelters and downstream) has changed [49] 3.7 Demand - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have different trends. The inventory of lithium battery cells and the winning bid of energy storage projects have also changed [53][55] - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors have different trends [58][61] - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, opening rate, production, import and export volume, and inventory of ternary materials have different trends [64][66] - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Lithium Iron Demand**: The price, cost, profit, capacity, opening rate, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid lithium iron have different trends [68][71] - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles have different trends [76][80]

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/8/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 82,760.00 | +1780.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -142,510.00 | -3052.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 390,069.00 | -5033.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 820.00 | +660.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 24,045.00 | +430.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 85,200.00 | -500.00↓ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 82,900.00 | -500.00↓ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 2,440.00 | -2280.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 980.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石平 ...

Group 1: Research Views - Yesterday, all lithium carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit down, with the main contract dropping to 80,980 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 85,700 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained at 83,400 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 77,740 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 430 tons to 24,045 tons [3]. - The Trump administration announced on Tuesday that the Department of Homeland Security will subject steel, copper, lithium, caustic soda, and red dates to stricter reviews due to alleged human - rights violations against the Uyghur population in these industries. However, for lithium batteries exported to the US, raw material procurement is generally avoided. In July 2025, China imported 750,700 tons of spodumene, a month - on - month increase of 174,800 tons; the import volume of lithium carbonate in July was 13,845 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,853 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons. Spodumene - based lithium production increased by 477 tons to 11,659 tons, lepidolite - based lithium production decreased by 510 tons to 3,900 tons, salt - lake - based lithium production increased by 300 tons to 2,742 tons, and recycled - material - based lithium production increased by 157 tons to 1,679 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% month - on - month to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the social inventory increased this week, with the total inventory decreasing by 162 tons to 142,256 tons. The upstream reduced inventory, while other links and downstream increased inventory [3]. - Currently, the production issues of known resource projects have basically been resolved. The price reached over 90,000 yuan/ton on Monday and is facing short - term回调 pressure. In the future, attention should be focused on the mining license issue in Jiangxi. Other projects need to complete report compilation and submission by September 30 [3]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased from 87,540 yuan/ton on August 19 to 80,980 yuan/ton on August 20, a decrease of 6,560 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract decreased from 87,580 yuan/ton to 81,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,540 yuan/ton [5]. - Among lithium ores, the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased from 978 US dollars/ton to 951 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) decreased from 1,385 yuan/ton to 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) decreased from 2,185 yuan/ton to 2,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased from 7,765 yuan/ton to 7,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 440 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased from 8,940 yuan/ton to 8,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan/ton [5]. - For lithium salts, the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized), industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 56,300 yuan/ton [5]. - In terms of price differences, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at - 7,960 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,300 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 22 yuan/ton [5]. - Among precursors and cathode materials, the prices of some ternary precursors and materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - For batteries, the prices of some battery cells and batteries increased slightly, such as the 523 square ternary battery cell, 523 cylindrical ternary battery, and cobalt acid battery cell [5]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [7][8][9]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12][13][14][15]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other price differences from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Precursors & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [26][27][29][30][31][32][33]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [35][36][37][38]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from December 26, 2024, to August 14, 2025 [40][41][42][43]. 3.7 Production Costs - The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [44][45]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience and has served many leading spot enterprises. He has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won awards [48]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on hedging accounting and hedging information disclosure [49]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [49]. Group 5: Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Square, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The game between reality and expectations in the lithium carbonate market is intensifying, leading to increased volatility in the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan; the trading volume was 55,748 lots, and the open interest was 65,157 lots. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 80,980 yuan, down 6,560 yuan; the trading volume was 838,879 lots, and the open interest was 395,102 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 24,045 lots, up 430 lots [1] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 4,660 yuan; the basis of spot - 2511 was 4,720 yuan; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 60 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 951 US dollars, down 27 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,125 yuan, down 60 yuan [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan, unchanged; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan, unchanged [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,752 yuan/ton, down 189 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - In July, lithium ore imports were 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.35%. Imports from Australia were 427,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.24%, with an average price of 631.35 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.16% [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a significant drop, closing at the limit down due to a combination of rumors and expectations of production resumption [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 20, lithium carbonate opened sharply lower and closed at a limit down, with the main contract priced at 80,980 yuan/ton [1][3]. - The market was influenced by multiple rumors, including the resumption of production by Yichun Silver Lithium and the transfer of Australian lithium concentrate to China [1][3]. - Despite the drop, analysts noted that the actual impact of these rumors on the market fundamentals was limited, indicating that the market was more affected by short-term news [3][5]. Group 2: Production and Supply Insights - Yichun Silver Lithium announced its resumption of production, which had been halted for equipment maintenance since July 25, with a previous monthly output of 1,300 tons [3]. - Current domestic lithium ore inventories are sufficient, with traders holding approximately 27.8 million tons of lithium concentrate, which corresponds to 28 days of supply [4]. - The overall supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate remains tight, with recent data showing a slight reduction in inventories across various stages of the supply chain [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price drop may be an overreaction, with potential upward price movement expected due to tightening supply and regulatory scrutiny [6][7]. - The market is currently in a seasonal demand peak, which could provide support for prices despite the recent volatility [7]. - Long-term supply increases from projects in Africa, South America, and domestic salt lakes are anticipated, but these will take time to materialize [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On August 18, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a high level. The market showed rigid - demand procurement, and the basis discount widened. In the short - term, both supply and demand strengthened, with the profit margin expanding, lithium carbonate production rebounding, downstream demand rising, and social inventory being depleted. However, it is necessary to guard against the "reversal" sentiment decline. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The operation suggestion is short - term range operation and appropriate purchase of options for protection [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Closing Prices**: On August 18, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 89,300.00 yuan/ton, 89,280.00 yuan/ton, 89,240.00 yuan/ton, and 89,240.00 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to previous days [3] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures on August 18 was 1,036,328.00 lots, an increase of 167,517.00 lots from the previous day. The open interest was 421,106.00 lots, an increase of 19,967.00 lots [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory on August 18 was 23,555.00 tons, an increase of 70.00 tons from the previous day [3] - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was 20.00 yuan/ton, the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 40.00 yuan/ton, and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0.00 yuan/ton [3] - **Basis**: The basis of the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the closing price of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was - 4,640.00 yuan/ton on August 18 [3] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 978.00 US dollars/ton on August 18, an increase of 38.00 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,385.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 65.00 yuan/ton [3] - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 84,600.00 yuan/ton on August 18, an increase of 1,900.00 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 82,300.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,900.00 yuan/ton [3] - **Other Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - based materials, and negative electrode materials also showed different degrees of changes [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Information - **Supply**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased. The SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,256 tons in total, with the inventory of smelters at 49,693 tons, showing a decreasing trend [3] - **Demand**: In the downstream, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. The production of cobalt - based lithium decreased in August, while the production of manganese - based lithium increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month. The 3C shipment volume was average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3] 3.4 Company News - Nengdongli stated on the interactive platform on August 18 that since the self - operation of its Lijiagou lithium mine, the operation has been good, and it is currently in the production - capacity climbing stage. De'ayi Industry successfully produced qualified battery - grade lithium salts in July 2025 [3] - Australian Covalent Lithium Company started producing lithium hydroxide at its 50,000 - ton/year Kwinana refinery on August 15, confirming that the commissioning has entered the trial - production stage, but its expansion plan has been shelved [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state where supply exceeds demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - led. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be depleted, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 87,340 - 91,140 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.16%. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.51%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45%. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,343 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.99%, with a profit of 1,069 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.33%, with a loss of 4,968 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end [8]. - **Basis**: On August 18, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 142,256 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.56%, and the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26% [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and it is predicted that the production next month will be 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume next month will be 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted. The price of 6% concentrate CIF increased daily, lower than the historical average. The lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 87,340 - 91,140 yuan/ton [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products showed varying degrees of increase, while the basis of most products showed a negative value and a certain degree of decline [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of spodumene, lepidolite concentrate, and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of anhydrous iron phosphate decreased slightly [13]. - **Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of most positive electrode materials and lithium batteries increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore increased, and the production and import volume of lithium ore showed different trends. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore and the inventory of lithium ore in ports also changed [21]. - **Lithium Ore Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The demand, production, import, and export of lithium ore in different months from 2024 to 2025 are shown, and the supply - demand balance is calculated [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling) are presented, and the supply - demand balance is calculated [26][31]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide are shown [34][37]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - Out - sourced spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have different cost - profit situations. The processing cost components of lepidolite and spodumene, as well as the import profit of lithium carbonate, are also presented [40][43][46]. - The cost - profit situations of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and different production methods of lithium hydroxide are shown [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in different periods and from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) is presented [48]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries are shown [52][54]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are presented [57][60]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, production, export volume, import volume, and inventory of ternary materials are shown [63][65]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, profit, capacity, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [67][70]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and inventory warning index of new energy vehicles are shown [75][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is characterized by strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,000 - 88,800 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. In July 2025, production was 81,530 physical tons, and next - month production is predicted to be 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase [10]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 79,952 yuan/ton, a 0.28% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,579 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 84,292 yuan/ton, a 0.69% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,868 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Neutral [9]. - **Basis**: On August 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 44,280 tons, a 2.36% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Neutral [9]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20. Bullish [11]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased. Bearish [11]. - **Positive factors**: Manufacturers' shutdown and production reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in lithium spodumene imports [12]. - **Negative factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [13]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different degrees of increase or remained stable [17]. - **Supply - demand data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 5.36%, and the monthly production increased by 9.70% [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Prices**: Lithium ore prices have shown fluctuations over the years [24]. - **Production**: The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has changed over different years [24]. - **Imports**: Lithium concentrate imports have fluctuated, with imports from Australia and other regions varying [24]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has shown different situations in different months and years [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating rate**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling materials) has changed over time [29]. - **Production**: Lithium carbonate production has shown an upward or fluctuating trend over different years and months [29]. - **Imports**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed [29]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has shown different situations in different months and years [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over different years [37]. - **Production**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) has changed [37]. - **Exports**: China's lithium hydroxide export volume has shown an upward trend over different years [37]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has shown different situations in different months and years [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost - profit of different raw materials**: The cost - profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production has changed over time [43][46][49]. - **Processing cost - profit**: The cost - profit of processing lithium hydroxide from different forms (coarse - grained to fine - grained), and the cost - profit of various lithium compound conversion processes have changed [49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed over time [51]. - **Lithium hydroxide inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Prices**: The prices of lithium batteries have changed over time [55]. - **Production**: The monthly production of power cells and energy - storage cells has changed [55]. - **Exports**: The export volume of lithium batteries has shown an upward trend over different years [55]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Prices**: The prices of ternary precursors have changed over time [60]. - **Production**: The monthly production of ternary precursors of different series has changed [60]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has shown different situations in different months and years [63]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Prices**: The prices of ternary materials have changed over time [66]. - **Cost - profit**: The cost - profit of ternary materials has changed [66]. - **Operating rate**: The weekly operating rate of ternary materials has changed over different years [66]. - **Exports and imports**: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Prices**: The prices of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [70]. - **Cost - profit**: The cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium has changed [70]. - **Production**: The monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium has changed [73]. - **Exports**: The monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has shown an upward trend over different years [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production**: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrids and pure - electric vehicles) has changed over different years [78]. - **Exports**: The export volume of new energy vehicles has shown an upward trend over different years [78]. - **Sales**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrids and pure - electric vehicles) and the sales penetration rate have changed over different years [78][79]. - **Inventory indicators**: The retail - wholesale ratio, inventory warning index, and inventory index of new energy vehicles have changed over different years [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is in a state of over - supply due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83380 - 87220. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [8][12]. - Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut and suspension plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene [10]. - Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake sources with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to take delivery [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Demand Side**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,598 tons, a 0.99% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,559 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 79,732 yuan/ton, a 0.88% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,114 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 83,715 yuan/ton, a 1.26% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,942 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 14, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3,300 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 44,280 tons, a 2.36% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase; in July 2025, the lithium carbonate import volume was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% month - on - month increase. On the demand side, it is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted. On the cost side, the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83380 - 87220 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview of Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, a 1.23% increase from the previous value [15]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase from the previous value. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, and the production from different sources such as spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake showed different trends [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase from the previous value. The monthly production of ternary precursor was 30,990 tons (622 type), a 7.08% increase from the previous value. The monthly power battery loading volume decreased, with the lithium iron phosphate loading volume increasing by 1.87% and the ternary battery loading volume decreasing by 5.27% [17]. - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease. The smelter inventory decreased by 2.56%, and the downstream inventory increased by 0.26% [17]. - **Cost - Profit Data**: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds vary. For example, the production profit of purchased spodumene concentrate was 1,114 yuan/ton, while the production of purchased lithium mica resulted in a loss of 4,942 yuan/ton [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The auction price of lithium carbonate is slightly at a discount to the market, and the range - bound trend may continue [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 85,040 yuan, the trading volume is 75,743, and the open interest is 108,394. For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 85,100 yuan, the trading volume is 1,245,424, and the open interest is 392,675. The warehouse receipt volume is 21,679 lots [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 is - 4,040 yuan, spot - 2511 is - 4,100 yuan, 2509 - 2511 is - 60 yuan, electric carbon - industrial carbon is 2,200 yuan, and spot - CIF is 12,474 yuan [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 926 US dollars, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,030 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,800 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 77,110 yuan, etc [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 80,946 yuan/ton, up 2,822 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,800 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton [2]. - On August 13, Albemarle's battery - grade lithium carbonate auction ended. 100 tons of Ronghui Lithium Industry and 100 tons of Yongshan Lithium Industry's lithium carbonate were auctioned, with成交 prices of 85,000 yuan/ton and 84,388 yuan/ton [3]. - Ganfeng Lithium announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary Ganfeng International will jointly develop the Pozuelos - Pastos Grandes salt lake basin in Argentina with LAR [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].