交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2026年3月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21822吨，环比增长8.11%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为92556吨，环比增加0.50%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为17234 吨，环比减少2.99%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为167425元/吨，日环比减少0.52%,生产所得为2831元/吨，有所盈利； 外购锂云母成本为162390元/吨，日环比减少1.16%,生产所得为4190元/吨，有所盈利；回收端生产成本普 遍大于矿石端成本，生产所得为负，排产积极性较低；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为32231元/吨，盐湖端成 本显著低于矿石端 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2026年2月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | | 供给端来看 上周碳酸锂产量为21822吨 环比增长8 11% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， ， . 。 , | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为92556吨 环比增加0 50% 上周三元材料 ， ， . , ， 。 . 成本端来看 外购锂辉石精矿成本为169235元/吨 日环比增长5 01% 生产所得为 ， ， . , | | | | | 样本企业库存为17234吨 环比减少2 99% | | 1 | 基本面: | | 中性 | | | 、 | | 。 1515元/吨 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-25 节后热情不减，碳酸锂大幅拉涨 市场分析 2026-02-24，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于143000元/吨，收于152640元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化2.21%。当日 成交量为300191手，持仓量为342226手，前一交易日持仓量353975手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-7720元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单38759手，较上个交易日变化1477手。 根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为110425吨，环比-1044吨。其中冶炼厂库存为18090吨，环比-1071吨；下游库 存为41485吨，环比-1253吨；其他库存为50850吨，环比+1280吨。下游及冶炼厂库存降低，其他库存增加，12月 整体预计仍维持去库格局，但去库有所放缓，需关注月底是否出现库存拐点。 策略 节后需求端依然保持火热态势，供应端能否快速补充将成为行情走势关键。考虑到短期碳酸锂仍将面临供应偏紧 的局面，预计短期内碳酸锂仍将保持偏强震荡态势，可考虑逢低做多 风险 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 单边：逢低做多 跨期：无 跨品种 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2026年2月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为20744吨 环比减少3 82% ， . | 高于历史同期平均水平 。 , | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为95032吨 ， | 环比减少1 84% 上周三元材料 . , | | | | | | 样本企业库存为18243吨 | 环比减少2 39% ， . 。 | | | | | | | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为139374元/吨 ， | 日环比持平 生产所得为 ， | ...

每经AI快讯，2月11日，碳酸锂主力合约日内涨幅扩大至8%，现报148660元/吨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The supply side shows a decline in production and imports, while the demand side is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 131,220 - 145,100 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. Summary According to the Directory Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,744 tons, a 3.82% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the production in February 2026 will be 81,930 tons, a 16.31% decrease compared to January 2026 [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,032 tons, a 1.84% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,243 tons, a 2.39% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 139,374 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.05%, resulting in a loss of 5,254 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 136,032 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 5,221 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On February 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 136,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 1,340 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, a 3.40% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 43,657 tons, a 7.53% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 43,450 tons, a 9.25% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 105,463 tons, a 1.87% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 on the market is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. Fundamental/Positioning Data - **Market Overview**: The report provides price data of various lithium compounds and related products, including lithium spodumene, lithium mica, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries. It shows the price changes, such as the price of 6% lithium spodumene increasing by 0.16% to 1,900 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remaining unchanged at 137,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: It presents detailed supply - demand data of the lithium carbonate industry, including production, import, export, inventory, and consumption. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in January 2026 was 97,900 tons, a 1.31% decrease compared to the previous month; the monthly import volume was 23,988.66 tons, an 8.77% increase compared to the previous month [15]. - **Cost - Profit**: The report analyzes the cost - profit situation of various lithium compounds, such as the cost - profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and the cost - profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate from different types of black powder [43][45]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories of smelters and downstream enterprises [51]. - **Demand**: It analyzes the demand situation of different application areas, such as power batteries, energy storage batteries, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and new energy vehicles, including production, sales, and export data [53][55][57][65][69][76].

今日早盘碳酸锂主力合约开盘后偏强运行至144500元/吨以上，涨幅一度超过5%。 成本端海外 锂矿价 格随碳酸锂价格下跌，成本支撑下移。供应端枧下窝锂矿复产预期延迟，加上春节节前和假期锂盐厂或 有检修，供应端预期收窄。智利出口至国内的碳酸锂环比增加，巴西锂矿复产对减产有一定缓解。前期 下游备货充足，本周临近春节备货逐渐进入尾声，去库幅度有所趋缓，需求对价格支撑或难有突破。库 存端，1月国内锂盐厂库存约29800吨，较上月累库5900吨，环比增加24.69%，同比增加8.01%。下游仍 以低价备货为主，昨日碳酸锂现货价格上涨500元/吨。上周贵金属下跌带动主力合约资金情绪降温，盘 面回调。基本面供需双弱库存去库趋缓，今日主力合约止跌反弹。节前暂无上行驱动，主力合约震荡运 行为主。操作上观望为主，可考虑平仓无风险过节。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. Lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 126,220 - 139,980. The main logic is the emotional fluctuations caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. [9][13] Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 20,744 tons, a 3.82% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In January 2026, the output was 97,900 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 81,930 tons, a 16.31% decrease. The import volume in January 2026 was 24,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 21,800 tons, an 11.02% decrease. [8][9] - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,032 tons, a 1.84% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,243 tons, a 2.39% decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline. [8][9] - **Cost Side**: The CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased daily and was lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 138,350 yuan/ton, a 0.42% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,715 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 136,032 yuan/ton, a 2.88% daily decrease, with a loss of 6,691 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end was 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9][10] - **Other Factors**: Bullish factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline. [11][12] 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Quotes**: The report provides detailed data on yesterday's market quotes, including futures closing prices, basis, registered warrants, upstream prices, cathode material prices, and lithium - ion battery prices, along with their changes and percentage changes. [16] - **Supply - side Data**: It includes data such as weekly and monthly operating rates, production costs, processing costs, and production profits of lithium carbonate, as well as monthly production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium ore. [19] - **Demand - side Data**: It contains data on the production, inventory, and export of lithium - related downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials, as well as data on new energy vehicle production, sales, and export. [19]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2026年1月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为22217吨，环比减少1.71%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96590吨，环比增加0.73%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18868 吨，环比增加3.35%。 供给端，2025年12月碳酸锂产量为99200实物吨，预测下月产量为97970实物吨，环比减少1.23%,2025年12月 碳酸锂进口量为23989实物吨，预测下月进口量为22500实物吨，环比减少6.20%。需求端，预计下月需求有所 强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所减少，低于历史同期平均水平，供需格局转 ...

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电、封面：图虫创意 行情变化： 1月2 6 日， ICC电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）现货结算指导价格为 1 68500 元 /吨 ，较上一工作日 下 跌 3000 元 ；电池级氢氧化锂（ 56.5%粗颗粒）结算指导价格为 1 62000 元 /吨 ，较上一 工作日 持平 。 期货方面，据市场消息，广期所于 1月26日上午向多家头部机构发出提示，建议降低持仓以应对市场 波动。这是本月内第二次针对碳酸锂期货的窗口指导，旨在抑制过度投机。受消息影响，碳酸锂期货主 力合约早盘 高开低走 ，日内跌幅显著扩大，市场情绪受政策调控影响明显降温。主力合约价格收盘 165680 元 /吨 ，较上一工作日 下跌了 15840 元 /吨 ，碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量减少2. 2 万手 至 41.6 7 万手， 持仓量锐减。 ICC锂电结算指导价： 0 1 0 2 | 品名 | | | 1月23日 1月26日 环比上涨 上月均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 锂精矿 (6.0%) | ...