Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the "Ten Key Industries Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" has significantly boosted the futures market, particularly impacting alumina prices, which reached the limit up due to policy expectations and structural contradictions in the fundamentals [3][5]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a plan focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacity in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [5]. - The "Aluminum Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" outlines specific requirements for alumina, emphasizing capacity upgrades and environmental standards [7][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent trading dynamics indicate a shift from a delivery-driven market to one influenced by excess supply, as evidenced by the accumulation of inventory and price adjustments [4][15]. - Despite a structural oversupply in alumina, the market is currently experiencing hidden shortages, with liquidity issues persisting in the spot market [10][15]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The operational capacity of alumina has reached a historical high of 93.85 million tons, with a capacity ratio of alumina to electrolytic aluminum at 2.12, indicating increasing structural pressure [15]. - The reduction in warehouse receipts due to the delivery of the July contract has created temporary supply constraints, but there is an expectation of alleviation as more receipts are registered [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by emotional factors, with a need for a shift towards a more relaxed supply situation to stabilize prices [17].

2025 年 6 月 20 日 无序产能清退期，成本曲线的失真与团雾 ---2025 年碳酸锂期货半年度行情展望 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 报告导读： 研 究 我们的观点：2025 年下半年，我们预计碳酸锂价格依然以偏弱震荡格局为主，价格运行区间预计为 5 万元/吨-6.5 万元/吨。 所 我们的逻辑：锂盐供应逆势增长，需求受贸易摩擦影响下修，锂盐过剩之况愈发严峻。2025 年锂盐供需过剩 29.9 万吨，产量 预计达 178.3 万吨，需求预计 148.4 万吨，供应增速 34%远超需求增速 21%。2025 下半年过剩幅度略低于上半年，三季度过剩 体量环比预计进一步放大，从 7 月持续过剩至 10 月。四季度与历年同期的缺口市场有所不同，历年 11-12 月为年末新能源车 和储能冲量时刻，而 2025 年 11-12 月预计将较去年同期增量表现更为疲弱和低迷。 中国自有+权益资源的自主化突破，海外矿商溢价能力减弱。2025 年中国锂供应实现关键跨越，通过自有资源深耕+海外权益 布局，已基本实现 76.0 万吨的供应规模，占全球供应量的 42.6%。 ...