能源化工日报 2026-02-25 | | 原油 | | --- | --- | | | 2026/02/25 原油 | | 能源化工组 | 【行情资讯】 | | | INE 主力原油期货收涨 28.70 元/桶，涨幅 6.18%，报 493.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 | | 张正华 | 燃料油收涨 79.00 元/吨，涨幅 2.76%，报 2942.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 192.00 元/吨，涨 | | 橡胶分析师 | 幅 5.84%，报 3478.00 元/吨。 | | 从业资格号：F270766 | | | 交易咨询号：Z0003000 | 【策略观点】 | |  0755-233753333 | 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 | | zhangzh@wkqh.cn  | 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉增产即将超预期的预判以及 OPEC 后续的 | | | 增产恢复预期，当前油价应予以中期布局为主要操作思路，但需等待地缘终点爆发以排除尾部 | | 徐绍祖 | 风险。 | | 聚烯烃分析师 | | | 从业资格号 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: With the current oil price having risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium, considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [2]. - **Methanol**: Methanol has priced in a significant number of negative factors. Given the short - term volatility probability of overseas geopolitics, it is recommended to stop losses on short positions and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [5]. - **Urea**: The current situation of internal - external price differentials has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short on rallies [7]. - **Rubber**: Near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term based on the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a hedging position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - **PVC**: The domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. Although there are short - term supports such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush sentiment, the fundamental situation is poor. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, it is advisable to gradually take profits [18]. - **Polyethylene**: The OPEC + plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of the crude oil price. The downward valuation space of PE still exists. With the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the demand side is declining [21]. - **Polypropylene**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [24]. - **PX**: Currently, PX production remains at a high level, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. Before the maintenance season, PX is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure of both PX and downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price [27]. - **PTA**: Supply is under high - level maintenance in the short term, and demand is declining due to the off - season. PTA is entering the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. There is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to medium - term opportunities to go long [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate is still relatively high. Although imports are expected to decline slightly in February, due to the downstream off - season, the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction in the medium term. However, there is also a risk of rebound due to factors such as the tense situation in Iran and coal price rebound [32]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 1.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 464.20 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline, diesel, and naphtha inventories increased, while fuel oil and aviation kerosene inventories decreased. The total refined oil inventory decreased slightly [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had different changes. The main futures contract increased by 1.00 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit decreased by 64 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in most areas remained unchanged, with a slight decrease in Jiangsu. The main futures contract increased by 12 yuan/ton to 1788 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 28 yuan/ton [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market fluctuated with the commodity market. Bulls and bears had different views. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [9][10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 11 yuan to 4992 yuan. The overall operating rate increased slightly, while the downstream operating rate decreased. Factory and social inventories changed accordingly [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene both decreased. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the port inventory of styrene increased. The operating rates of downstream products had different changes [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 91 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the production enterprise inventory increased [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 61 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the production enterprise inventory increased [22]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 20 yuan to 7192 yuan. The operating rates in China and Asia increased. Some enterprises had production status changes. Import volume decreased, and inventory increased [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 26 yuan to 5192 yuan. The PTA operating rate increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased. Social inventory increased, and processing fees increased [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 3739 yuan. The overall supply - side operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate decreased. Port inventory increased, and different production methods had different profit situations [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and mid - term layout should be the main operation idea [1]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [1]. - For urea, the current situation of internal and external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high levels [1]. - For rubber, the overall commodity has rebounded, with expected large - amplitude fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. Buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 can resume position - building [7]. - For PVC, the overall domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support it, the fundamental situation is poor. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [10]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply is wide, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profit - taking can be gradually carried out [14]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward valuation space still exists. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate is declining [17]. - For polypropylene, the cost side predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply pressure in H1 2026 is relieved. The demand side has seasonal fluctuations. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [19]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulating pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [21]. - For PTA, the supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is affected by the off - season. It has entered the inventory - accumulating stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, and there is a risk of correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long at low levels [23]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, the import is expected to remain high in February, and the port inventory - accumulating cycle will continue. The valuation is currently neutral to low, and there is a risk of rebound due to factors such as the tense situation in Iran and coal price rebound [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures closed up 12.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.80% increase, at 462.40 yuan/barrel. The related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 107.00 yuan/ton, a 3.98% increase, at 2797.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 107.00 yuan/ton, a 3.39% increase, at 3268.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still an Iranian supply gap, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and mid - term layout should be the main operation idea [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, regional spot prices changed as follows: Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan/ton, Lunan increased by 5 yuan/ton, Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei increased by 55 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 23.00 yuan/ton, at 2279 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 6 yuan [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [1]. Urea - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, regional spot prices: Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Northeast remained unchanged; Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 17 yuan/ton, at 1787 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of internal and external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high levels [1]. Rubber - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, multiple commodities rebounded after a sharp decline. The short - term market is priced by funds and has a low correlation with fundamentals. Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls are optimistic due to macro - expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 29, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises for all - steel tires was 62.41%, 0.29 percentage points lower than the previous week and 54.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.35%, 0.08 percentage points higher than the previous week and 53.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 25, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.2 million tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 84.7 million tons, a 0.4% decrease; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 42.5 million tons, a 0.3% increase. As of January 30, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, an 1.88% increase. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15150 (+200) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1930 (+15) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1920 (10) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10400 (+50) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12400 (0) yuan [4][5][6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity has rebounded, with expected large - amplitude fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. Buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 can resume position - building [7]. PVC - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the PVC05 contract increased by 84 yuan, at 5155 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4900 (+100) yuan/ton, the basis was - 255 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 99 (+13) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 700 (0) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 590 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.9%, a 0.2% increase from the previous week; the calcium carbide method was 80.6%, a 0.6% increase; the ethylene method was 75%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.1% decrease. The factory inventory was 29 million tons (- 1.8), and the social inventory was 120.6 million tons (+2.9) [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support it, the fundamental situation is poor. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6190 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6210 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7777 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton; the basis was 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 185.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.63 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB device profit was - 46.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.1 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.28%, a 0.35% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, an increase of 0.80 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.56%, a 1.84% decrease; the PS operating rate was 55.60%, a 1.70% decrease; the EPS operating rate was 53.26%, a 5.45% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 66.10%, a 0.70% decrease [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply is wide, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profit - taking can be gradually carried out [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6918 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 35.03 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons; the trader inventory was 2.92 million tons, unchanged. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward valuation space still exists. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate is declining [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6801 yuan/ton, an increase of 71 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6780 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 21 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 43.1 million tons, a decrease of 3.67 million tons; the trader inventory was 19.39 million tons, a decrease of 1.08 million tons; the port inventory was 7.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply pressure in H1 2026 is relieved. The demand side has seasonal fluctuations. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [19]. PX - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the PX03 contract increased by 100 yuan, at 7180 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 5 US dollars, at 902 US dollars. The basis was - 67 yuan (- 58), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 116 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 89.2%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 81.6%, a 0.6% increase. The Zhonghua Quanzhou plant was restarting. The PTA load was 76.6%, unchanged. The Sichuan Energy Investment plant was restarting. In January, South Korea exported 40.8 million tons of PX to China, a decrease of 2.5 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of December was 465 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 313 US dollars (+3), the South Korean PX - MX was 150 US dollars (- 1), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (- 8) [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulating pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [21]. PTA - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the PTA05 contract increased by 68 yuan, at 5218 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 60 yuan, at 5140 yuan. The basis was - 62 yuan (+6), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (+8). The PTA load was 76.6%, unchanged. The Sichuan Energy Investment plant was restarting. The downstream load was 84.2%, a 2.2% decrease. Multiple plants were under maintenance or restarting. The terminal texturing load decreased by 14% to 52%, and the loom load decreased by 16% to 33%. On January 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.6 million tons, an increase of 3.3 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 39 yuan, to 398 yuan, and the on - screen processing fee increased by 9 yuan, to 432 yuan [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is affected by the off - season. It has entered the inventory - accumulating stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, and there is a risk of correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long at low levels [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the EG05 contract increased by 21 yuan, at 3788 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 5 yuan, at 3675 yuan. The basis was - 105 yuan (-

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the "Ten Key Industries Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" has significantly boosted the futures market, particularly impacting alumina prices, which reached the limit up due to policy expectations and structural contradictions in the fundamentals [3][5]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a plan focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacity in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [5]. - The "Aluminum Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" outlines specific requirements for alumina, emphasizing capacity upgrades and environmental standards [7][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent trading dynamics indicate a shift from a delivery-driven market to one influenced by excess supply, as evidenced by the accumulation of inventory and price adjustments [4][15]. - Despite a structural oversupply in alumina, the market is currently experiencing hidden shortages, with liquidity issues persisting in the spot market [10][15]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The operational capacity of alumina has reached a historical high of 93.85 million tons, with a capacity ratio of alumina to electrolytic aluminum at 2.12, indicating increasing structural pressure [15]. - The reduction in warehouse receipts due to the delivery of the July contract has created temporary supply constraints, but there is an expectation of alleviation as more receipts are registered [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by emotional factors, with a need for a shift towards a more relaxed supply situation to stabilize prices [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain in a weak - oscillating pattern, with the price range projected to be between 50,000 yuan/ton and 65,000 yuan/ton [2][58]. - The supply of lithium salts is growing against the trend, while the demand is revised downwards due to trade frictions. In 2025, the supply - demand surplus of lithium salts is 299,000 tons, with production expected to reach 1.783 million tons and demand at 1.484 million tons. The supply growth rate of 34% far exceeds the demand growth rate of 21% [2][11][55]. - China has achieved a breakthrough in the self - sufficiency of its own and equity resources, weakening the premium ability of overseas miners. In 2025, China's lithium supply has reached 760,000 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the global supply, and the domestic demand's import dependence has decreased from 43% to 25% [2][15][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 Lithium Carbonate Trend Review - In 2025 H1, the market price of lithium carbonate continued to decline compared to 2024, with the price ranging from 60,000 to 82,000 yuan/ton. Except for a slight increase in January, the price trended downwards throughout the rest of H1 [6]. - In January 2025, under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the supply contraction was more prominent, coupled with reduced imports and rising costs, the price was firm. The import of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased, domestic production decreased after the end of the increase in December, and the inventory was transferred to the downstream [8]. - From February to March 2025, with both supply and demand increasing, the price oscillated downwards. Domestic production and operating rates recovered after the Spring Festival, but imports decreased. The lithium - battery industry was gradually warming up, but there was a structural differentiation in cathode materials. Social inventory reached a new high, and cost support weakened [9]. - From April to June 2025, with strong supply and weak demand, the price declined rapidly. The US tariff policy hit long - term demand. Cathode material production profit was at the break - even point, and production enthusiasm weakened. The restart of an overseas mine created an expected supply increase, and lithium carbonate inventory remained stable, leading to a decline and then stabilization of lithium ore prices [10]. 3.2 Global Excess is Still Expanding, and the Domestic Circular Market is Self - Sufficient 3.2.1 Global Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Update - In 2025, the supply - demand surplus of lithium salts is 299,000 tons, significantly larger than the 103,000 tons in 2024, and it is expected to further expand to 550,000 tons in 2026. The supply growth rate of 34% far exceeds the demand growth rate of 21%, and the market may face long - term inventory accumulation pressure [11]. - The global lithium supply increment is concentrated in new projects. In 2025, the production is expected to reach 1.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 553,000 tons or 34%. Different resource types and regions contribute to the growth, with significant differences in growth momentum [12]. - Global lithium demand still maintains growth but at a slower pace. In 2025, the demand is expected to be 1.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 184,000 tons or 21%. The demand structure is still dominated by power batteries, but the growth rate of energy - storage battery demand has declined [13]. 3.2.2 Balance Sheet from the Perspective after Decoupling - China has achieved a breakthrough in the self - sufficiency of its own and equity resources, weakening the premium ability of overseas miners. In 2025, China's lithium supply has reached 760,000 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the global supply, and the domestic demand's import dependence has decreased from 43% to 25% [15]. - In the context of Sino - US trade friction and potential decoupling risks, the global lithium - battery industry chain is being re - structured. China's domestic lithium carbonate demand in 2025 is expected to be 1.008 million tons, accounting for 67.9% of the global demand, but the trade environment is reshaping the demand logic [17]. 3.2.3 High - Frequency Supply - Demand - The global lithium market is in an oversupply state in 2025. The surplus in H2 is slightly lower than that in H1. The surplus volume in Q3 is expected to further expand from July to October. In Q4, the market is different from previous years, with a weaker and more sluggish incremental performance from November to December. The end - of - year impulse demand has been advanced, and the market is in an oversupply pattern in Q4, with only a small gap in December [19]. 3.3 The Lithium - Battery Industry Chain is in a Stage of Passive Inventory Accumulation and Profit Negative Feedback - The lithium - battery industry is in a stage of passive inventory accumulation and profit negative feedback, with a volume - increasing and price - decreasing operation logic. In 2025, the demand for the lithium - salt industry is 1.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21%, but the industry profit is being squeezed. The probability of entering the volume - increasing and price - decreasing mode in H2 is high [24]. - New energy vehicle inventories have reached a record high, and the profit is in a downward cycle. Price promotions have increased the inventory pressure on the supply chain, and car companies have compressed the payment period to suppliers to ease the capital pressure [27]. - Battery enterprise inventories continue to reach new highs, and the profit is below the break - even point, with a large inventory accumulation pressure [32]. - Cathode material enterprises have shifted from passive inventory accumulation to active inventory reduction. The industry pattern is being reshaped, with "low - end overcapacity and high - end shortage", and some small and medium - sized enterprises have withdrawn from the market [37]. - Lithium salt enterprise inventories are at a peak level, and the profit of processing enterprises is approaching the full - cost line, but there is still profit at the cash - cost level [41]. - Lithium mine profit is among the highest in the industry, at 60 - 145%, and the inventory is rising from the bottom [47]. 3.4 Unordered Capacity Clearance Period, Distortion and Downward Shift of the Cost Curve - The lithium industry is in an unordered capacity clearance period. High - cost enterprises and new -投产 enterprises have complex reasons for not reducing production, and the industry's clearance path is expected to be long [49]. - The cost - curve model based on corporate financial costs to anchor the bottom of lithium prices has failed. The production cost disclosed by enterprises is continuously falling, and the cost curve is shifting downwards. Based on different models, the estimated integrated mine cost corresponding to downstream demand in 2025 is 53,796 yuan/ton and 44,748 yuan/ton respectively, and the supply at around 60,000 yuan/ton still shows an oversupply pattern [50]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The supply of lithium salts is growing against the trend, and the demand is revised downwards. The supply - demand surplus is becoming more severe. China has achieved a breakthrough in resource self - sufficiency. The demand has been overdrawn in advance, with continuous inventory accumulation from July to October and a weak peak season in Q4 [55][56]. - The lithium - battery industry chain is in a stage of passive inventory accumulation and profit negative feedback. The cost - curve model based on financial costs has failed, and the cost curve is shifting downwards [57]. - In the second half of 2025, it is expected that the lithium carbonate price will remain in a weak - oscillating pattern, with the price range projected to be between 50,000 yuan/ton and 65,000 yuan/ton [58].