Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's hawkish stance in the March meeting, including maintaining interest rates, raising growth and inflation forecasts, and slightly revising up the long - term neutral interest rate, has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields. Precious metals have entered a stage of high - volatility adjustment, shifting from being dominated by "safe - haven premiums" to a situation where "safe - haven support remains, but interest rates and the US dollar impose stronger constraints" [1]. - Gold is currently in a stage where "safe - haven support and interest - rate suppression" coexist. Short - term trends may feature high - level adjustments and mood swings. Its medium - term allocation value remains if the market's pricing of stagflation intensifies, but it may face further valuation pressure if US Treasury yields and the US dollar continue to rise [2]. - Silver is likely to continue high - volatility adjustments in the short term. Its performance depends on the marginal changes in the US dollar, interest rates, and risk appetite. If the market turns to stagflation trading and the risk appetite for industrial metals stabilizes, its elasticity relative to gold may recover, but the recovery pace may be slower during the Fed's hawkish phase [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Precious Metals Market Overview - The Fed's March meeting sent hawkish signals, causing the market to reduce bets on rate cuts within the year. As a result, the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened, leading to a continuous decline in gold prices and putting pressure on silver [1]. Gold Analysis - **Logic**: The Fed's policies are not loose as it maintains the median of one rate cut this year while raising GDP and PCE forecasts and the long - term interest rate center. Powell's remarks on oil - price impacts on inflation and the need for restrictive interest rates have weakened rate - cut expectations, directly suppressing gold. However, due to ongoing Middle - East tensions and energy - supply risks, there is still buying support for gold [2]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold will experience high - level adjustments and mood swings. If oil prices rise and affect growth, the market's stagflation pricing may strengthen, enhancing gold's medium - term value. If US Treasury yields and the US dollar continue to rise, gold may face more valuation pressure [2]. Silver Analysis - **Logic**: In a hawkish Fed environment with a strong US dollar and volatile risk assets, silver is more elastic and has larger回调幅度 than gold. Oil - price shocks may drag on silver's industrial attributes if they suppress global demand. The current market trading theme makes silver more vulnerable to capital re - balancing [3]. - **Outlook**: Silver will likely continue high - volatility adjustments in the short term. Its performance depends on the US dollar, interest rates, and risk appetite. If the market turns to stagflation trading and industrial - metal risk appetite stabilizes, its elasticity relative to gold may recover, but the recovery may be slower [3]. Commodity Index - On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive commodity index was 2581.98, down 0.38%; the commodity 20 index was 2916.20, down 0.36%; the industrial products index was 2557.35, down 0.31% [40]. - The precious metals index on March 18, 2026, was 4226.30, with a daily decline of 0.84%, a 5 - day decline of 4.51%, a 1 - month decline of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.51% [42].