Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, has shown a strong upward trend driven by "safe-haven" and "stagflation trading" dynamics, with gold prices surpassing $5240 per ounce as of February 24, 2026 [1][7]. Group 1: Safe-Haven Logic - Multiple macroeconomic uncertainties globally are providing fundamental support for the prices of non-ferrous metals, including precious metals [3][9]. - The reversal of U.S. tariff policies, following a Supreme Court ruling against large-scale tariffs from the Trump administration, indicates prolonged trade friction and increased market risk aversion [3][9]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and potential military conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, are heightening global risk aversion [3][9]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that rising macro and geopolitical risks are driving investors to diversify into "hard assets," with precious metals and copper showing significant price appreciation potential [3][9]. Group 2: Stagflation Trading - Recent U.S. economic data indicates a slowdown, with the actual GDP growth for 2025 projected at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024, marking the lowest growth since 2021 [3][9]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for December 2025 is expected to rise by 3.0%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, raising concerns about stagflation [3][9]. - Stagflation, characterized by stagnant economic growth and high inflation, typically benefits commodities due to their inflation-hedging properties [3][9]. Group 3: Focus on Non-Ferrous Core Assets - As the market enters a "profit-driven growth phase" in 2026, the strong cyclical nature of non-ferrous metals is expected to manifest, supported by domestic re-inflation narratives [4][11]. - The ongoing issuance of the Silver Hua Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals ETF provides a convenient investment tool for investors looking to capitalize on core assets in the non-ferrous sector [4][11]. - The top five sectors in the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Index as of February 24, 2026, are copper (29.6%), gold (14.9%), aluminum (14.7%), rare earths (8.3%), and lithium (6.5%), reflecting a broad representation of the industry [6][13].

春节假期至今，海外黄金、白银为代表的贵金属市场整体呈现震荡偏强格局。北京时间2月24日，伦敦金黄金盘中突破5240美元/盎司。有专业分析认为，本 轮板块上涨的核心逻辑在于"避险"与"滞胀交易"两条主线共振，在此背景下，如何高效关注有色龙头？ 一、避险逻辑：宏观不确定性构建底层支撑 近期全球宏观层面多重不确定性因素叠加，成为有色金属（含贵金属）价格的核心底层支撑力。一方面，美国关税政策上演剧烈反转，美国最高法院裁定特 朗普政府大规模关税措施违法后，特朗普政府迅速切换至122法案并将税率上调至15%，这种政策反复意味着贸易摩擦将长期化，后续政策仍充满变数，短 期内或对市场风险偏好形成压制。 另一方面，地缘不确定性加剧，俄乌谈判未取得实质性进展，美伊对峙甚至面临军事冲突风险，地缘政治的不确定性推升了全球避险情绪。 高盛分析师表示，在宏观与地缘风险上升的驱动下，投资者分散投资"硬资产"的意愿或已成为本轮商品行情的关键推动力。硬资产通常指、、基础设施等有 形实物资产，而在此轮配置转移中，贵金属与铜或更具价格上涨潜力。 二、海外滞胀交易：通胀与增长放缓强化上涨动力 当地时间2月20日，美国发布数据显示，2025年美国全年 ...

Core Insights - The sudden divergence in the prices of gold and oil highlights a significant shift in market dynamics triggered by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Waller, indicating a potential end to quantitative easing [1][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold futures plummeted by 9% within 15 minutes, while Brent crude oil prices surged past $70, showcasing an unusual separation between these traditionally correlated safe-haven assets [1] - Waller's remarks on "potentially ending quantitative easing early" prompted algorithmic traders to react swiftly, leading to a massive sell-off in gold futures, with over 200 tons sold during the Asian trading session [3][5] Group 2: Asset Sensitivity to Interest Rates - The sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to its nature as a "long-duration zero-coupon bond," where a 20 basis point increase in the 10-year Treasury yield significantly raises the opportunity cost of holding gold [5] - In contrast, the oil market's rally is driven by geopolitical risks, particularly tensions in the Middle East, overshadowing the impact of the Fed's tapering [5] Group 3: Trading Dynamics - The market witnessed a flash crash in gold due to the magnetic effect of algorithmic trading, with over 80 CTA funds triggering stop-loss orders as gold fell below the critical support level of $5,450 [5] - Conversely, algorithmic trading in the oil market acted as an accelerator for price increases, generating substantial buy orders as Brent crude surpassed a three-month high of $68 [5] Group 4: Long-term Implications - A significant revaluation is underway, with record outflows from gold ETFs and a surge in oil call option volumes to a five-year high, indicating a shift in how inflation-hedging assets are perceived [7] - The divergence between gold and oil may signal a more enduring style shift in investment strategies, reminiscent of the post-2008 bull market in gold, suggesting that 2025 could mark a new era for commodity rotation [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices have surpassed $5,100 per ounce, reaching a historical high, with silver prices also rising concurrently. This price increase is driven by both safe-haven and monetary attributes [1] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves to optimize foreign exchange structures and reduce reliance on single sovereign currencies. Private investors are also incorporating gold into their asset allocations to hedge against uncertainties [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target price for gold from $4,900 to $5,400, citing ongoing global policy uncertainties and potential for further price increases in precious metals [1] Group 2: Industry and Company Insights - Zijin Mining is engaged in the exploration, development, and smelting of gold and copper, with a projected net profit for 2025 between 51 billion and 52 billion yuan [2] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining focuses on gold mining and smelting, expecting a net profit for 2025 in the range of 3 billion to 3.2 billion yuan [2] - Shengda Resources specializes in the mining and sales of silver and gold, holding nearly 10,000 tons of silver reserves [3] - Shandong Zhaojin Refining has achieved record processing volumes in gold and silver refining, with significant growth in gold repurchase business [4] - Yuguang Gold Lead is a major silver production base in China, utilizing unique processes for efficient precious metal recovery [4] - Lao Feng Xiang is involved in the research, design, production, and sales of gold jewelry, with gold jewelry prices reaching historical highs [5] - China Gold focuses on gold retail and brand operations, benefiting from the rising demand in the physical gold consumption market [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the gold market witnessed a historic rally due to multiple structural factors, with international gold prices hitting record highs and cumulative gains exceeding 70%. The driving logic shifted from the traditional "real - interest - rate negative correlation" to the dual drivers of "sovereign credit risk premium" and "global monetary system fragmentation" [2]. - In 2026, the structural bull market for gold remains solid. Despite short - term callback pressure, the long - term allocation value of gold is prominent. Gold prices are likely to remain high and volatile, with higher volatility than in 2025. Opportunities for professional investors lie in cross - market arbitrage and volatility trading [3]. - The gold market's pricing paradigm is undergoing a profound transformation, from being dominated by real interest rates to being driven by fiscal sustainability, dollar - credit premium, and global monetary system reconstruction [61]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. 2025 Gold Market Panorama Review International Market Performance - The international gold price in 2025 went through three stages: "expectation correction, main - uptrend acceleration, and high - level consolidation". The core driving force shifted from traditional interest - rate games to the re - evaluation of the global credit system and strategic asset allocation [5]. - In Q1, gold played the role of a "stabilizer" in the portfolio. Despite geopolitical risks, strong US economic data led to doubts about the Fed's rate - cut timing and amplitude, causing gold price fluctuations. Gold prices rose nearly 25% in the first half of 2025 [6]. - From late April to Q3, the driving logic switched. The Fed's dovish signals and rate cuts, explosive growth in investment demand (global gold investment demand in Q3 reached 537 tons, a 47% year - on - year increase), and deepening geopolitical and credit concerns drove the main uptrend [7]. - In Q4, gold price volatility increased. Profit - taking, short - term liquidity changes, central - bank gold purchases, new market forces, and the FOMO sentiment in the precious - metal sector all contributed to the high - level fluctuations [8][9]. Domestic Market Performance - The domestic gold market in 2025 showed a pattern of "new price highs, hot investment but cold consumption, and a more in - depth market". Domestic gold prices were highly synchronized with international prices [10][11]. - In terms of structured demand, high gold prices led to a significant difference between investment and consumption demand. Gold jewelry consumption declined, while investment in gold bars, coins, and ETFs showed different trends [13][14]. - Market activity increased significantly in 2025. The trading volume of the domestic gold spot and futures markets soared, and the internationalization of the domestic gold market advanced. The Shanghai Gold Exchange launched an international - board contract in Hong Kong [16]. - The RMB exchange rate in 2025 provided a buffer for domestic gold prices. Exchange - rate fluctuations affected the performance of RMB - denominated gold and created differences between domestic and international gold price trends [17]. - The spread between domestic and international gold prices fluctuated in 2025, providing arbitrage opportunities but also increasing risks. The spread was driven by short - term supply - demand imbalances, exchange - rate expectations, capital flows, market sentiment, and policy events [20][21]. - In 2025, a new gold - tax policy was implemented, which had a profound impact on the Chinese gold market. It differentiated the VAT treatment of investment and non - investment gold, guiding the market towards a more standardized and transparent stage [23][25][26]. 2. 2025 Core Driving Factor Analysis Macro Level - The Fed's "preventative cuts" in 2025 led to a "rate - logic failure" phenomenon, indicating a fundamental shift in the core driving logic of gold prices [29]. - The market's focus shifted from interest - rate levels to the deteriorating US fiscal sustainability, leading to a "credit - anchor migration" and a change in the gold - price driving logic from "against high interest rates" to "against credit dilution" [31]. Risk Premium Level - Geopolitical events in 2025 had a complex impact on gold prices. While single events might have a short - term and pulsed impact, they also raised the gold - pricing center as a long - term "background noise" and a structural call option [34][37]. - In 2025, the gold - silver ratio decreased significantly, and the gold - copper ratio reached a historical high. These changes reflected complex macro - narratives and market - structure changes, such as inflation expectations and differences in the driving logic of different commodities [39][42]. Structural Supply - Demand Level - Global central banks became important buyers in the gold market in 2025. Their gold - buying behavior was strategic, and the future potential for central - bank gold allocation in China is large [44]. - In 2025, there was a large - scale cross - ocean flow of physical gold between the New York (COMEX) and London (LME) markets. This flow was driven by arbitrage and policy - risk avoidance. It affected the inventory distribution, liquidity structure, and price - discovery mechanism of the gold market [47][48][55]. 3. 2026 Outlook Key Time Nodes and Event Deduction in 2026 - In Q1 2026, the US debt - ceiling negotiation may cause short - term market volatility and trigger a re - evaluation of the dollar's credit. The outcome of the negotiation will affect the gold - price trend [57]. - In Q2 2026, the Fed's mid - term inflation assessment will determine the market's trading narrative. Different inflation scenarios will have different impacts on gold prices [57]. - In Q3 2026, the BRICS summit may promote the internationalization of the gold monetary role. Positive signals from the summit will provide long - term support for gold prices [59]. - In Q4 2026, the US mid - term elections will affect future fiscal policies. Different policy expectations will have different impacts on gold prices [59]. Short - Term Volatility Risks - Uncertainty in the Fed's policy pace may suppress gold prices in the short term if inflation is反复 [63]. - Crowded trading structures and changes in market sentiment may lead to a 10% - 15% technical correction in gold prices [63][64]. 4. Investment Strategy Recommendations - For most investors, it is recommended to establish a core position with physical gold or gold - related financial products through a regular - investment approach to achieve long - term asset allocation [65]. - For professional and qualified investors, futures contracts can be used as tactical tools for enhanced strategies, risk management, and capturing structural opportunities such as cross - period and cross - market arbitrage [65][66].

Investment Highlights - Precious metals: Gold has reached a new historical high, with continued recommendations for investment. Recent weak economic data from the US has led to a decline in the dollar index, and gold is poised for an upward trend as it prepares for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Even if the meeting outcomes align with expectations, there is no need to rush to take profits, as the market is likely shifting from recession trading to stagflation trading, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [2][3] - Copper: If interest rate cuts can facilitate a soft landing, copper prices may rise. LME copper has surpassed $10,000. Despite a weakening US economy, the market appears to be pricing in future stagflation or soft landing scenarios, leading to an upward trend in copper prices. With the domestic consumption peak approaching and downstream operating rates expected to improve, copper prices are likely to rise [2][3] - Aluminum: Continued optimism for rising aluminum prices. Shanghai aluminum prices have increased, driven by significant improvements in downstream operating rates, which have risen to 62.1%. Although the real estate sector remains sluggish, demand from the renewable energy sector is providing effective support. The mid-term impact of US aluminum tariffs is expected to be limited, and the long-term outlook for electrolytic aluminum remains positive [3] - Cobalt: Prices for cobalt intermediates continue to rise, with attention on the dynamics of electrolytic cobalt and policy changes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Cobalt product prices have increased, with weekly growth rates of 4.55% for cobalt sulfate and 2.06% for electrolytic cobalt. The market anticipates further supply constraints due to upcoming policy changes in the DRC, which could drive prices higher [3] - Tin: Price increases driven by interest rate cut expectations and supply shortages. Tin prices rose by 2.70%, with operating rates for refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces dropping to 28.48%. Supply constraints are expected to persist due to raw material shortages and seasonal maintenance [4] - Lithium: Prices under pressure due to the announcement of a resumption plan at the Jiangxi mine. Lithium prices have declined, primarily due to market expectations surrounding the resumption of production. However, supply growth is expected to slow, and demand from the energy storage sector remains strong, indicating a potential improvement in the carbonated lithium supply-demand balance [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Huayou Cobalt, Zhongtung High-tech, Zhangyuan Tungsten, Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, Shanjin International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shenhuo Co., and Yun Aluminum [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold, which has reached a historical high. The expectation is for a shift from recession trading to stagflation trading, suggesting a potential slow bull market for gold [5] - Copper prices are expected to rise if interest rate cuts lead to a soft landing for the economy. The current market sentiment is pricing in stagflation or soft landing scenarios, with domestic consumption expected to increase as the peak season approaches [6] - Aluminum prices are also projected to rise due to increased downstream operating rates during the traditional peak season, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [6] - Cobalt prices are on the rise, driven by strong demand and supply constraints, particularly with upcoming policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [7] - Tin prices have increased due to supply shortages, with production rates in key provinces remaining low [7] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to the announcement of a resumption plan for a key mining area, although long-term demand remains strong [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6795.38, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 3725.17 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: Copper up 1.49%, Aluminum up 2.80%, Zinc up 3.10%, Lead up 2.07%, and Tin up 2.70%. Precious metals also saw gains, with Gold up 0.46% and Silver up 3.20% [22] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventory changes: Copper increased by 7945 tons, Zinc increased by 2724 tons, while Lead decreased by 4085 tons [30]

Group 1 - The market is reacting to a significant increase in initial jobless claims, leading to a drop in yields despite CPI being close to expectations [2][4] - There is a focus on inflation data, with two-year and ten-year yields reaching higher highs, indicating a potential stagflation scenario [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points instead of 50, with market participants reassessing the aggressiveness of the easing cycle if inflation remains persistent [4][5] Group 2 - The reversal in yields suggests a double bottom formation, with a rejection of the 4% yield level, which is the lowest close of the year [4][5] - High-yield junk bonds are attracting investors as rate cuts are anticipated, with high yield ETFs closing at their highest level in approximately three and a half years [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that during the US interest rate cut cycle, Hong Kong stocks may exhibit better resilience than US stocks, benefiting from improved liquidity and risk appetite, with a focus on TMT, energy, and telecommunications sectors [1] - The current trading mode is primarily characterized by stagflation trading, with a potential shift towards easing trading scenarios and recession trading scenarios [1] - Under stagflation trading, Hong Kong stocks have shown higher gains (close to those in easing trading), while US stocks have seen slight increases (similar to recovery trading), and US Treasury yields have declined (approaching recession trading declines) [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which selects the top 30 securities by market capitalization from technology-related listed companies traded through Stock Connect, reflecting the overall performance of the technology sector in Hong Kong [1] - The index emphasizes information technology and hardware sectors, showcasing a balanced allocation across multiple tracks [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link A (015739) and Link C (015740) [1]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights investment opportunities in rare earth magnetic materials and energy metals such as lithium and cobalt, indicating a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations in prices [5][9] - The report notes that copper prices are expected to rise in the long term due to supply constraints, particularly after Chile's national copper commission significantly lowered its 2025 copper production growth forecast [5] - The report emphasizes the strong demand for rare earth metals, driven by increased orders from major manufacturers, which is expected to lead to price increases [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index for the industry is 5905.88, with a weekly high of 5905.88 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper decrease by 0.08%, aluminum by 0.46%, zinc by 1.32%, and lead by 1.12%. In contrast, lithium prices surged by 15.02% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes included an increase of 6293 tons in copper, 30567 tons in aluminum, and 950 tons in nickel, while lead saw a decrease of 3973 tons [32]