避险溢价

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机构研究周报:港股配置价值提升,政策进入观望期
Wind万得· 2025-05-18 22:35
【 机构观点综评 】 兴业证券指出,全球资金配置将从过度集中于美股转向更加平衡,港股投资逻辑 从价值投资转向成长投资。华泰证券认为,中美关税摩擦短期缓解,短期政策进入观望期。 一、焦点锐评 【解读】中美日内瓦经贸会谈超预期,市场情绪明显提振,风险资产阶段性跑赢避险资产。港股大涨 (尤其是消费电子、家电等出口相关板块)、美股大涨、而黄金、中国利率债下跌。中美关税从"非理 性"高位降至可谈判水平,但后续谈判进展仍是关键,中美博弈仍将继续,不确定性仍在。对美国来 讲,关税调降延后对通胀和增长的冲击,如果进一步降级则美联储或有望降息。对中国来讲,关税对基 本面拖累减少,但同样也降低政策发力紧迫性,市场修复至关税前水平。 二、权益市场 1.景顺长城基金:关税下调,出海链企业直接受益 景顺长城基金研究团队指出,本次中美谈判的关税下调幅度大超市场预期,背后原因可能包括美国供应 链对中国的依赖,以及我国综合国力的提升,有助于提振市场短期风险偏好。配置层面,短期出口出海 链企业直接受益,相关板块有望具有阶段性相对表现,建议关注消费电子、元件、机械和汽车零部件等 出口链行业。 万家基金叶勇称,随着支撑主题投资的多种因素走弱,阶段 ...
金价跳水,是调整还是转折?
第一财经· 2025-05-12 13:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold prices due to easing trade tensions between the US and UK, leading to a drop in safe-haven premiums and a shift in market sentiment towards riskier assets [1][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of May 12, the international spot gold price fell below $3,300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3,208 per ounce [1]. - The domestic gold ETF market saw a decline, with several ETFs dropping over 2% in value [1]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold ETF total scale was approximately 1,490 billion yuan, recovering from a low of 1,450 billion yuan after a previous high of 1,522 billion yuan [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Dynamics - The gold ETF market experienced a rapid inflow of funds in April, with a total increase of 834 billion yuan year-to-date, but saw a subsequent outflow of 65 billion yuan in early May [4][5]. - The COMEX gold futures report indicated a decrease in long positions by 1,411 contracts, while short positions increased by 752 contracts, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The article highlights that the easing of trade tensions has reduced market risk aversion, contributing to the volatility in gold prices [7]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, long-term factors such as central bank gold purchases and inflation concerns are expected to support gold prices [8][9].