2月25日，受全球贸易环境震荡及避险情绪升温影响，黄金市场在经历短线调整后重新获得上行动力。 ZFX山海证券认为，尽管周二市场因获利回吐出现了1.6%的回撤，但随着美国正式启动10%的全球进口 关税，避险买盘再度涌入，推动现货金价在周三亚洲时段反弹1%，站稳每盎司5192.68美元。这种由政 策面驱动的避险溢价，正抵消市场对部分获利盘离场的担忧，为贵金属提供了关键的支撑底座。 贸易政策的剧变正成为大宗商品定价的核心逻辑。ZFX山海证券表示，特朗普政府不仅在周二开启了 10%的临时关税征收，更有官员透露白宫正推动将税率进一步提升至15%的计划。这一举措不仅引发了 市场对通胀抬升的预期，更导致全球贸易不确定性飙升。此外，地缘政治局势的演变同样牵动着投资者 的神经。ZFX山海证券认为，随着美伊双方即将于周四在日内瓦展开新一轮核协议谈判，市场的谨慎情 绪进一步推高了避险金属的配置需求，黄金作为风险对冲工具的价值再次凸显。 在其他金属品种方面，波动性表现得更为剧烈。美元指数在亚洲交易时段小幅回落0.2%，为以美元计 价的金属提供了喘息机会。ZFX山海证券表示，受此带动，白银价格出现了近4%的报复性反弹，一度 冲至每盎司 ...

欧洲交易时段前，现货黄金（XAU/USD）运行于5200美元关口下方，距离周二触及的月度高点仅一步 之遥。虽然尚未有效突破整数位阻力，但整体上升结构未被破坏。 美国在中东地区的军事部署，使即将举行的美伊核谈判第三轮会议提前笼罩在紧张氛围中。市场担忧， 一旦谈判进展不顺，或将触发新一轮制裁甚至地区冲突风险，相关不确定性强化了黄金的避险属性。 与此同时，特朗普在国情咨文中再次强调关税政策的重要性，并表示正推动将税率提高至15%。此前最 高法院否决原有关税框架后，白宫已推进对非豁免商品加征10%关税的计划。贸易摩擦升温令企业与投 资者对全球供应链前景保持谨慎，也在一定程度上削弱了美元买盘的持续性。 从技术结构看，金价此前在5100美元一线获得明显支撑，该区域已转化为阶段性防守位。价格持续运行 于200周期简单移动均线（约4930美元）上方，中期上升趋势依旧稳固。 与黄金走强并行的是，美联储政策预期出现明显鹰派修正。德意志银行指出，市场对降息时间点的押注 显著后移，6月会议降息概率回落至52%，为年内低位；对12月累计宽松幅度的预期亦有所收敛。 UNforex 2月25日讯 在市场重新评估美联储政策前景、短期美债收益 ...

在分析近期价格波动的内在逻辑时，相关研究员认为，避险溢价的收缩是金价回调的重要诱因。尽管中 东地区仍有航母部署及军事演习，但由于美伊谈判在日内瓦达成了"指导原则"共识，此前紧绷的地缘溢 价迅速消退。这种情绪的转变使得黄金作为避险资产的吸引力在短期内让位于走强的美元资产。 除了地缘因素的稀释，市场正屏息关注美联储（Fed）即将释放的政策信号。相关分析认为，美联储 1 月会议纪要及周五公布的 PCE 物价指数将直接揭示 2026 年上半年降息的节奏。此外，由于新一任美联 储主席提名人选被市场视为非鸽派立场，这种政策偏好的转变加剧了金属市场的焦虑情绪。相关数据显 示，除了贵金属，期铜等工业金属持仓也出现了高净值客户离场的情况，反映出全行业对未来流动性紧 缩风险的防御性布局。 除了地缘因素的稀释，市场正屏息关注美联储（Fed）即将释放的政策信号。相关分析认为，美联储 1 月会议纪要及周五公布的 PCE 物价指数将直接揭示 2026 年上半年降息的节奏。此外，由于新一任美联 储主席提名人选被市场视为非鸽派立场，这种政策偏好的转变加剧了金属市场的焦虑情绪。相关数据显 示，除了贵金属，期铜等工业金属持仓也出现了高净值客户离 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a dramatic decline on February 5, 2026, with silver prices plummeting over 14% and gold dropping more than 3%, leading to significant losses in related stocks and a stark contrast between capital market panic and physical market demand [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On February 5, silver prices fell to a low of $75.83 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw silver contracts drop nearly 15% to 19,340 yuan per kilogram. Gold prices fell below the critical psychological level of $4,800 [1][4]. - A significant number of stocks related to gold and silver, such as Hunan Gold and Sichuan Gold, hit their daily limit down, reflecting a widespread sell-off in the sector [1][4][5]. Market Dynamics - The decline was preceded by a strong performance in January, where gold prices reached nearly $5,600 per ounce and silver exceeded $120 per ounce, resulting in gains of over 25% for gold and 60% for silver in just a month [3][4]. - The sell-off on February 5 was characterized by a lack of liquidity and a surge in stop-loss orders, creating a downward spiral in prices [4][6]. Regulatory Changes - Prior to the crash, exchanges raised margin requirements for silver contracts, which forced leveraged traders to either add funds or face forced liquidation, exacerbating the price decline [6][12]. - Major banks issued risk warnings to clients regarding the heightened volatility in the precious metals market, advising caution and stricter trading rules [12]. Institutional Behavior - Large investment institutions began to adjust their portfolios, with noticeable outflows from major gold ETFs during the price drop, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment [7][12]. - Analysts noted that the market's reaction was influenced by macroeconomic factors, including potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and interest rate expectations, which could strengthen the dollar and negatively impact gold and silver prices [6][12]. Physical Market Response - Despite the turmoil in the capital markets, physical gold and silver demand surged in places like Shenzhen, where customers flocked to purchase gold bars, viewing the price drop as an opportunity [9][10]. - Retail gold prices adjusted downward in response to falling wholesale prices, making gold jewelry more attractive to consumers [10]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from various firms expressed differing views on the causes of the market decline, with some attributing it to technical adjustments and profit-taking, while others pointed to macroeconomic uncertainties stemming from U.S. Federal Reserve personnel changes [12][13]. - The overall sentiment in the market shifted from extreme optimism to fear, with many investors now closely monitoring support levels and physical demand to gauge future price stability [13].

Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is currently weak, with significant volatility observed in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [3][4][7]. Precious Metals - Silver futures experienced a drastic drop, with SHFE silver contracts falling by 15%, while gold also saw a decline of over 5% at one point during the trading session [15][31]. - The recent sell-off in precious metals is attributed to a combination of profit-taking by investors and increased trading costs due to margin hikes (gold to 9%, silver to 18%) [7][23]. - Analysts suggest that the macroeconomic environment remains bearish, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a tightening stance to control inflation, which diminishes support for precious metal prices [31][30]. Coal and Coke - The main contract for coking coal fell by 3.68% to 1138.5 yuan/ton, while coke prices decreased by 2.64% to 1698.5 yuan/ton, reflecting weak demand and ongoing inventory accumulation at steel mills [16][17]. - The market is expected to continue facing weak demand post-holiday, with a focus on inventory digestion rather than new purchases [32][17]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, with WTI and Brent crude both dropping over 3% recently [33][34]. - The SC crude oil contract showed relative resilience, closing down only 0.37% at 465.4 yuan/barrel, despite initial larger declines [33][34]. - Market analysts note that while geopolitical risks remain, concerns about direct military conflict in the Middle East have eased, leading to a complex interplay of supply and demand factors affecting oil prices [34][18].

5598.75美元/盎司的黄金历史最高价，9%的近40年最大单日跌幅，仅隔了一个交易日。2026年1月，贵 金属市场给所有人上了一课。 分析人士认为，近期贵金属市场震荡更多是行情过热后的主动降温，而非恐慌性撤离。在美元信用困局 解决之前，贵金属中长期支撑价格上涨的核心逻辑依然坚实。 开年以来大起大落 回顾过去一周，贵金属市场经历了罕见的大起大落。 经历了暴涨暴跌后，贵金属市场再度企稳。截至北京时间2月3日16时28分，伦敦金现货价格从低位反弹 约6%，收复4900美元/盎司关口；伦敦银现货价格反弹约10%。市场情绪从极度恐慌中逐渐恢复，但波 动率仍处于历史高位。 "最近我们调整黄金目标价的次数，绝对比过去任何时候都要频繁得多。"一位贵金属分析师在接受中国 证券报记者采访时感慨道。 1月，国际金价一度逼近5600美元/盎司，白银更是狂飙至120美元/盎司上方，截至1月29日，1月以来累 计涨幅分别高达24%和62%。然而就在市场沉浸于狂欢之际，1月末两个交易日风云突变，金价单日暴 跌逾9%，白银单日重挫超26%，令无数追高者措手不及。 本周，国际市场率先企稳反弹。Wind数据显示，截至2月3日16时28分，伦敦 ...

编辑 陈莉 实习生 彭紫桐 国际金价飞速跳水，眼看着屏幕前陡然拉出一条近90°的向下折线，实时金价急速跳动，接连跌破5400美元、5300美元、5200美元三道关口，黄金投资者 小林慌了神，被迫紧急抛售部分黄金持仓。 1月29日晚，国际黄金、白银迎来"巨震一夜"，国际金价跌落回5200美元/盎司下方，现货黄金跌幅超4%；国际银价跌落回110美元/盎司下方，现货白银跌 幅超6%。 金银暴跌引起市场连锁反应。1月30日早盘，贵金属板块集体低开，中金黄金、白银有色、豫光金铅、招金黄金、四川黄金、湖南白银跌停。截至盘中， 现货黄金报5146美元/盎司，跌幅超4%；现货白银报105美元/盎司，跌幅超8%。 南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉指出，"过山车"行情是一次由技术面、资金面和情绪面共振引发的经典波动，核心在于市场短期涨幅过大，积累了天 量获利盘，处于"超买"的极限状态。此次急跌本质上是市场内在的脆弱性在特定时点的集中释放，是对前期非理性飙升的一次强制性风险出清。 田利辉认为，对普通投资者而言，当前的关键并非择时，而是确立正确的投资范式，普通投资者应彻底摒弃"抄底"思维。若进行长期配置，必须使用正确 工具，远离杠杆 ...

▲1月29日晚，国际金价跳水。金投网截图 1月29日晚，国际黄金、白银迎来"巨震一夜"，国际金价跌落回5200美元/盎司下方，现货黄金跌幅超4%；国际银价跌落回110美元/盎司下方，现货白银跌 幅超6%。 金银暴跌引起市场连锁反应。1月30日早盘，贵金属板块集体低开，中金黄金、白银有色、豫光金铅、招金黄金、四川黄金、湖南白银跌停。截至盘中， 现货黄金报5146美元/盎司，跌幅超4%；现货白银报105美元/盎司，跌幅超8%。 南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉指出，"过山车"行情是一次由技术面、资金面和情绪面共振引发的经典波动，核心在于市场短期涨幅过大，积累了天 量获利盘，处于"超买"的极限状态。此次急跌本质上是市场内在的脆弱性在特定时点的集中释放，是对前期非理性飙升的一次强制性风险出清。 田利辉认为，对普通投资者而言，当前的关键并非择时，而是确立正确的投资范式，普通投资者应彻底摒弃"抄底"思维。若进行长期配置，必须使用正确 工具，远离杠杆，并且严格控制比例，以"逢低、分批、长期"的定投思路平滑成本，才能穿越高波动周期，分享其长期价值。 "巨震一夜"慌了神 多只概念股早盘跌停 国际金价飞速跳水，眼看着屏幕前陡然拉 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源有色金属组 昨日金价延续强势表现，主力合约沪金2604开于1063.00元/克，收于1092.30元/克，涨幅达3.69%，高点 1101.92元/克，突破1100元/克整数关口。 近期金价冲高核心驱动源于地缘冲突加剧背景下的避险溢价提振：美国总统特朗普在被问及如果最高法 院就关税问题作出不利裁决，是否会影响美国针对格陵兰岛的安全政策时，特朗普表示，如果现行关税 工具受限，他"可以使用其他方式"，例如通过"许可制度"等替代手段。而欧洲议会宣布冻结对去年7月 与美国达成的贸易协议的批准程序。这被视为欧盟对特朗普最新施压举措作出的首次回应。特朗普此前 威胁对欧洲八个国家加征关税，直到相关方就美国"购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。此外，两名加拿大政府高 级官员表示，加拿大武装部队已经模拟了美国对加拿大的军事入侵以及加拿大可能作出的回应。据信， 这是加拿大武装部队一个世纪以来首次模拟美国对该国的攻击。地缘冲突的烈度加剧或将强化黄金作为 首选避险非美资产的吸引力。 基于目前市场避险情绪滋生，对于金投资的需求或有增强，因此预计近期黄金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for investors to cautiously assess the premium risks in the precious metals market, particularly in light of the recent volatility in silver prices, suggesting that blindly chasing high prices may not be wise [1][3] - Silver has seen a year-to-date increase exceeding 30%, with some periods showing gains of 50% to 60%. The implied volatility of silver has risen to a high of 65%, with a potential to test 70% [1][3] - The risk-reward ratio for market entry has become severely imbalanced due to the extreme price volatility and historical high levels, indicating a need for caution [1][3] - Changes in inventory flows are expected to lead to a decline in global leasing rates, undermining previous claims of extreme physical silver shortages [1][3] - For silver to continue its upward trajectory, the gold-silver ratio would need to drop to extreme levels of 30 or 40, significantly below the historical average of 65 [1][3] - Even with a projected gold price of $5,000 per ounce by year-end, the pressure for the gold-silver ratio to normalize may result in silver's year-end valuation being flat compared to current prices, diminishing the attractiveness of buying at current levels [1][3] Group 2 - In contrast, the strategic value of gold is highlighted as more pronounced, especially in the context of a new era of "resource nationalism" where major powers are increasingly competing for strategic resources [2][4] - The unpredictability of geopolitical conflicts is making traditional currency hedging methods less effective, thereby enhancing gold's appeal as a core safe-haven asset [2][4] - Gold is seen to possess stronger premium capabilities even at historical highs, suggesting significant upward potential remains [2][4][5]