1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core View of the Report - After gold prices hit a record high, profit-taking sentiment may suppress prices in the short term, but the main logic of safe-haven premium and Fed easing remains unchanged, and future prices are expected to rise further; recent gold prices are likely to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 890 yuan/gram - 915 yuan/gram [8] - Silver is currently showing a similar price pattern as gold, with the main logic unchanged; combined with the expected strengthening of industrial demand in the easing cycle, the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Short-term silver prices are also expected to remain volatile, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10,950 yuan/kilogram - 11,550 yuan/kilogram [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025 (local time), the bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate; President Trump plans to cut some federal programs favored by Democrats [1] - New York Fed President Williams supports further interest rate cuts this year to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market; he believes the US economy is not in recession, inflation risks have eased but still need attention, and monetary policy remains "moderately tight" [1] - US Treasury Secretary has completed the last round of interviews for the next Fed Chair candidate, and Trump will make a final decision from four candidates [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 909.96 yuan/gram and closed at 914.32 yuan/gram, a change of 4.57% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 902.28 yuan/gram, down 1.31% from the afternoon close [2] - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,200 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,169 yuan/kilogram, a change of 2.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 605,570 lots, and the open interest was 477,441 lots. The night session closed at 11,078 yuan/kilogram, down 0.81% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.544%, a change of -0.42 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract on October 9, 2025, long positions decreased by 1,783 lots and short positions decreased by 1,463 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 285,521 lots, a change of -32.03% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,005,687 lots, a change of -39.90% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 1,014.58 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,416 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 9, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -17.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,078.81 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was approximately 81.86, a change of 1.10% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 82.33, a change of 0.66% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 51,446 kilograms, a change of -21.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 592,680 kilograms, a change of 123.93% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,886 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 88,590 kilograms [7]

Report Overview - The report is the precious metals and non - ferrous metals morning report of Baocheng Futures on August 29, 2025, covering gold and copper [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - For gold, short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, with an intraday view of being volatile and bullish. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the rising expectation of interest rate cuts is favorable for the gold price, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure in the volatile range [1] - For copper, short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, with an intraday view of being volatile and bullish. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the domestic and foreign macro - environment has cooled, and as the domestic peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: After the Asian session yesterday, the gold price continued to rise. New York gold reached above $3450, London gold reached above $3400, and Shanghai gold reached above 785 yuan [3] - **Driving Factors**: Nvidia's third - quarter guidance was not bright, and its trend was weakening, which may give gold a safe - haven premium. Since Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price has been on an upward trend. The relatively small increase of Shanghai gold is largely due to the appreciation of the RMB and the expectation of continuous appreciation [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure of London gold [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: The copper price oscillated and stabilized yesterday, and maintained a volatile and bullish trend at night, approaching the 79,000 - yuan mark [5] - **Driving Factors**: The decline in copper price may be due to the short - term decline in overseas risk appetite, and the entire non - ferrous metal sector generally fell after the Asian session yesterday. On the industrial side, as the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches in China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and industrial support is gradually strengthening [5] - **Market Sentiment**: The copper position has decreased significantly compared with July, indicating a significant decrease in capital attention, and the volatility may continue to be at a low level. Short - term attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term and mid - term views of gold are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The short - term and mid - term views of copper are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and strengthening", and the reference view is also "wait - and - see" [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Yesterday's night session saw the gold price hit bottom and rebound, while the US dollar index rose and then fell. Since Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price has been on an upward trend. Technically, New York gold is approaching the $3450 mark, the upper limit of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3] - **Driving Factors**: The less - than - impressive Q3 guidance of NVIDIA led to a nearly 3% drop after the market, and the short - term decline in the equity market may give gold a safe - haven premium. The increasing expectation of interest rate cuts is beneficial to the gold price. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure of the oscillation range [1][3] Copper - **Price Trend**: After the Asian session yesterday, LME copper continued to decline, and SHFE copper opened lower at night and fell below the 79,000 - yuan mark. The overall non - ferrous metal sector generally declined after the Asian session yesterday [5] - **Driving Factors**: The decline in copper prices may be due to the short - term decline in overseas risk appetite. The domestic stock index fell from a high yesterday, and the strong willingness of long - position holders to liquidate may have cooled the overall commodity atmosphere. Domestically, as the peak season approaches, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and industrial support is gradually strengthening. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - President Trump announced that gold will not be subject to tariffs, leading to a significant drop in precious metal prices, with COMEX gold futures down 2.78% to $3394.1 per ounce and silver down 2.29% to $37.66 per ounce [1] - If the tariff ruling remains in place, it could have profound implications for the global gold market, with analysts suggesting that gold prices may experience strong fluctuations, potentially breaking through the $3500 per ounce resistance level [2] - Silver prices are expected to follow gold's upward trend, with a potential challenge to the $39 per ounce mark if it can stabilize above the $38.5 per ounce key resistance level [2] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main contract rising 8% to 81,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply disruptions from the shutdown of the Jiangxia Wokeng mining area by CATL [5][6] - The shutdown of the Jiangxia Wokeng mining area is expected to reduce supply by approximately 6.8 million tons in the second half of the year, with a monthly supply decrease of 14,000 to 16,000 tons, representing about 13% of the current domestic monthly supply [8] - Analysts believe that while the current price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly, the supply-demand balance may shift, potentially leading to a small supply gap if demand remains optimistic [9]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - President Trump announced that gold will not be subject to tariffs, leading to a significant drop in precious metal prices, with COMEX gold futures down 2.78% to $3394.1 per ounce and silver down 2.29% to $37.66 per ounce [2] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection had previously announced that gold imports would incur tariffs, which had driven prices to historical highs [2] - Analysts suggest that in the long term, precious metal prices may experience strong fluctuations, with gold potentially breaking through the $3500 per ounce mark if it can maintain a solid technical base around $3400 per ounce [2] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main contract rising by 8% to 81,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply disruptions [9][12] - The shutdown of the Jiangxiawo mining area by CATL is expected to impact lithium carbonate supply, with potential reductions of approximately 2.3 million tons in the second half of the year [12][13] - Analysts indicate that while the current market sentiment is bullish due to supply constraints, there is a risk of price corrections if demand does not match supply increases [14]

Group 1 - Central banks have increased gold reserves for nine consecutive months, with July's reserves reaching 73.96 million ounces (approximately 2300.41 tons), a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) [1] - In Q2 2025, global central banks net purchased 166 tons of gold, indicating a continued optimistic outlook for central bank gold demand despite a slowdown in purchasing pace [2] Group 2 - Global gold demand surged by 45% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching a record $132 billion, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening trust in fiat currencies [2] - The average increase in gold prices during Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycles is 28%, with historical examples showing significant price rises during previous cycles [3] Group 3 - The current environment of low or negative interest rates from major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, encourages investment in gold as a hedge against low-yield asset risks [4] - Year-to-date, spot gold prices have risen over 26%, with a peak of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets [5] Group 4 - The total net inflow into gold ETFs in the A-share market this year has reached 60.7 billion yuan, with the average annual increase of these products at 26%, leading to a total scale growth to 152.25 billion yuan [5][7] - The largest gold ETF by market capitalization is the Huaan Fund Gold ETF, with a latest market value of 58.646 billion yuan, followed by the Bosera Fund Gold ETF and the E Fund Gold ETF [7]

Market Overview - The US dollar index declined by 0.56%, closing at 98.17, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts following comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - Spot gold prices fell by 0.35%, ending at $3368.97 per ounce after reaching a near two-week high, marking the end of a four-day rally [1][2] - Spot silver remained relatively stable, closing up 0.05% at $37.809 per ounce [1][2] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical tension between the US and Russia is intensifying, with President Trump indicating a potential three-party summit next week, while Senator Rubio warned of possible secondary sanctions against Russia within 24-36 hours, creating a mixed risk environment that raises safe-haven premiums [3] - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve policy are increasing, with Kashkari advocating for two interest rate cuts this year, which reinforces easing expectations, while Trump's potential appointment of a temporary Fed board member poses risks to the credibility of monetary policy [3] Commodity Trading Insights - Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern in the short term, with gold's safe-haven premium strengthening [4] - A strong support level for gold is identified around $3400, while a resistance level is seen near $3450, which may present a breakthrough opportunity [4] - Silver, despite facing pressure from tariffs affecting industrial demand, could see a rebound if it holds above the critical support level of $37, with potential to challenge the $38 mark [4]

Core Insights - Precious metals prices have significantly increased, leading to a surge in consumer interest and sales, particularly in platinum and silver [2][3] - The industrial demand for silver and platinum is a key driver of price increases, with applications in renewable energy and automotive sectors [3] - Geopolitical risks have heightened the safe-haven premium for precious metals, contributing to their price rise [3] Group 1: Market Trends - Platinum prices have risen from 223.77 CNY per gram at the end of 2024 to 314.56 CNY per gram, marking a 40.57% increase [2] - Silver prices increased from 7620 CNY per kilogram at the end of 2024 to 9201 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a 20.75% rise [2] - Retail outlets are responding to the demand by expanding their offerings, including platinum and investment silver bars [2] Group 2: Industrial Demand - Strong industrial demand for silver is driven by its use in photovoltaic systems, 5G technology, and electronic components [3] - Platinum is increasingly utilized in hydrogen fuel cells and automotive emissions control, leading to a growing supply-demand gap [3] - The recovery of the global manufacturing sector is boosting the overall demand for industrial metals, including silver and platinum [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is impacting the export of platinum group metals from Russia [3] - Instability in the Middle East threatens key mineral transport routes, further constraining the supply of silver and platinum [3] - Increased geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty are driving market participants towards safe-haven assets, raising prices [3] Group 4: Consumer Impact - Rising prices of precious metal products are leading consumers to consider alternatives like K-gold or gold-plated items [4] - The cost of renewable energy products, such as photovoltaic panels and fuel cell vehicles, may increase, affecting the overall transition to green energy [5] - Consumers are advised to carefully adjust their asset allocation in light of high prices and potential risks associated with investing in precious metals [5]