美元兑瑞郎的价格行为与年末以来的节奏高度一致：先在0.7860附近出现阶段性止跌，再回到0.79上方 整理。当前0.7930所处位置，介于前期反弹后的整理区间之内，而上方0.7950一带也容易成为技术交易 者关注的参考区。若从动量指标观察，日线图上MACD仍处于零轴下方，柱状动能接近收敛，意味着下 行趋势的惯性在减弱，但并未完全扭转；RSI约在44附近，说明市场并未进入明显超卖的极端状态，更 符合"弱势反弹后横盘修复"的典型形态。 更值得注意的是，美元兑瑞郎在过去一年显著回落的背景下，市场对"美元周期"与"避险溢价"之间的权 重正在重新分配。若市场担忧上升，瑞郎的避险属性会使其相对更强；而当风险偏好回暖时，瑞郎的强 势通常也不会立刻完全消退，因为利率预期与资金避险配置往往具有惯性。因此，汇价在0.79附近反复 拉锯，并不矛盾：它反映的是两股力量的同步存在——美元端的短期数据韧性提供支撑，但更长期的宽 松预期压制上行；瑞郎端既有数据改善的加分项，也有避险需求的底盘效应。 周五（1月2日）美元兑瑞郎北美时段交投于0.7930附近，整体表现较为平稳，最终收跌0.01%，报 0.7923。美元对瑞郎汇率在去年末曾下探 ...

12月22日晚间，上期所发布公告，针对白银期货相关合约出台多项风险防范措施，内容涵盖调整交易限额、调整平今仓交易手续费等。分析人士认为，此举旨在 为市场降温，引导理性交易，投资者在交易时应注意控制风险。 上期所出手降温 具体来看，上期所宣布，自12月24日（即12月23日夜盘）交易起，非期货公司会员、境外特殊非经纪参与者、客户在白银期货AG2602合约的日内开仓交易的最大数 量为10000手。实际控制关系账户组日内开仓交易的最大数量按照单个客户执行。 在另一条公告中，上期所还对白银期货相关合约交易手续费做出了调整。上期所公告表示，自2025年12月24日交易（即12月23日晚夜盘）起，白银期货AG2602合约 日内平今仓交易手续费调整为成交金额的万分之二点五。白银期货AG2604合约日内平今仓交易手续费调整为成交金额的万分之零点五。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达指出，上期所此次对白银期货AG2602合约实施日内开仓量限制，是其在价格持续飙升、市场交易活跃度显著提升的背景下，出于防范风 险、抑制过度投机的考虑所采取的一项针对性措施。 近日，国内白银期货主力合约也连续创下历史新高。这种快速上涨容易积聚风险，交易所通过 ...

东兴证券发布研报称，全球货币政策转向宽松，地缘政治与经济政策不确定性提升了贵金属避险溢价。 在黄金传统金融市场定价层面上，黄金的避险溢价、汇率平价、流动性溢价及通胀平价四大核心要素均 在发酵，趋势易涨难跌；白银因工业需求强劲而供需缺口持续放大；铂金亦维持结构性短缺。 黄金：黄金价格或呈现趋势性的易涨难跌 黄金传统的纯金融属性定价方式显现弱化，而商品供需属性的定价方式明显强化，黄金金融属性决定价 格弹性而供需属性决定价格韧性。黄金供需已进入商品定价层面上结构性偏紧状态，价格将呈现趋势性 的易涨难跌，即供需基本面将决定黄金定价的底部中枢。全球矿产金供应已进入低增长阶段，矿金产出 成本提升与供给增速承压相印证，而黄金需求则呈现强韧性（央行购金形成的需求支撑）及强弹性（黄 金ETF投资的净流入提升）。近三年全球黄金年均消费量均值已升至约4616吨，其中央行购金连续三年 升至1000吨之上，推动黄金需求曲线右移20%以上并带动黄金现货溢价攀升。至2025年11月，中国央行 已连续十三个月增持黄金，累计净增量达到41吨。另一方面，随着利率环境的常态化回归，全球黄金实 物持仓ETF的年增长量或有望恢复至2016-2020年 ...

来源：中国能源网 东兴证券近日发布金属行业2026年度展望：从综合统计的数据观察，全球央行降息比例已由22年10月的 13.33%大幅攀升至25年10月的85.33%，全球央行净降息比例则由同期的-73.33%上涨至+86.08%。数据 的变化确定性地标志着自美联储24年9月的首次降息开启后，全球货币政策由紧缩周期向宽松周期的转 向。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资摘要： 黄金：黄金价格或呈现趋势性的易涨难跌。黄金传统的纯金融属性定价方式显现弱化，而商品供需属性 的定价方式明显强化，黄金金融属性决定价格弹性而供需属性决定价格韧性。黄金供需已进入商品定价 层面上结构性偏紧状态，价格将呈现趋势性的易涨难跌，即供需基本面将决定黄金定价的底部中枢。全 球矿产金供应已进入低增长阶段，矿金产出成本提升与供给增速承压相印证，而黄金需求则呈现强韧性 （央行购金形成的需求支撑）及强弹性（黄金ETF投资的净流入提升）。近三年全球黄金年均消费量均 值已升至约4616吨，其中央行购金连续三年升至1000吨之上，推动黄金需求曲线右移20%以上并带动黄 金现货溢价攀升。至2025年11月，中国央行已连续十三个月增持黄金，累计净增量达到41吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The global decline in real interest rates is expected to enhance the price elasticity of commodities, positively impacting the metal industry as monetary policy shifts from tightening to easing [5][6]. - The expansion of central bank balance sheets suggests a potential return to quantitative easing (QE), which historically has supported commodity price increases [6][24]. - High geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties are driving up the safe-haven premium for precious metals, particularly gold [7][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Commodity Cycle and Liquidity - The shift in central bank balance sheets is facilitating the release of price elasticity in commodities, with a significant increase in the proportion of global central banks engaging in rate cuts from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% in October 2025 [5][23]. - The current geopolitical risk index is at a historical high, which is expected to maintain the upward pressure on precious metal prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [7][33]. 2. Precious Metals Pricing Dynamics - Gold prices are anticipated to show a trend of being easier to rise and harder to fall, with supply-demand fundamentals establishing a strong price floor [8][41]. - The global gold supply is in a structurally tight state, with mining output growth slowing and production costs rising above $1500 per ounce [8][42][48]. - The silver market is projected to experience a widening supply-demand gap, driven by industrial demand growth in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [9][10]. - Platinum is expected to maintain a structural shortage, with supply constraints and resilient demand from jewelry and industrial applications [11][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the cyclical, growth, and hedging value of the industry, highlighting specific companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Zijin Mining as potential investment targets [9][12].

Core Insights - Gold prices experienced a dramatic decline of $409 in just eight days, marking a 9.3% drop from a peak of $4,382 per ounce to $3,973 per ounce, the most significant drop since 2013 [3][4][6] - The decline has severely impacted retail investors and futures traders, with many facing substantial losses due to high leverage and market volatility [6][7] Group 1: Market Data - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reported that gold prices fell from $4,382 per ounce on October 20 to $3,973 per ounce by October 28, a loss of $409 [3] - In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold spot price dropped by 35 yuan per gram over two days, with major retailers seeing weekly declines exceeding 2% [3] - On October 21, global gold ETFs saw a net outflow of $5 billion, and non-commercial net long positions in gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased by 12% [3][6] Group 2: Causes of the Decline - The Federal Reserve's shift in policy, with a reduction in the expected rate of interest rate cuts, led to an increase in real interest rates, making gold a less attractive investment [4][5] - A decrease in geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Ukraine and the Middle East, resulted in the withdrawal of safe-haven investments from gold [5] - Technical indicators showed that gold was overbought prior to the decline, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 70, triggering automated sell-offs when prices fell below key support levels [5] Group 3: Impact on Stakeholders - Retail investors who purchased gold at high prices faced significant losses, with some losing amounts equivalent to a month's salary within a week [6] - Physical gold retailers experienced a sharp decline in sales, with some reporting a drop of over 40% in sales revenue in major cities [6] - Futures traders faced severe losses, with many accounts losing over 100,000 yuan in a single day due to the rapid market downturn [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term price corrections are expected, but long-term support remains, with industry representatives predicting gold prices could reach approximately $4,980 per ounce by next October [7] - Key indicators to watch include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and any resurgence of geopolitical risks, which could drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] - Historical data suggests that after significant declines, gold prices often recover, emphasizing the importance of understanding market signals and managing risk [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core View of the Report - After gold prices hit a record high, profit-taking sentiment may suppress prices in the short term, but the main logic of safe-haven premium and Fed easing remains unchanged, and future prices are expected to rise further; recent gold prices are likely to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 890 yuan/gram - 915 yuan/gram [8] - Silver is currently showing a similar price pattern as gold, with the main logic unchanged; combined with the expected strengthening of industrial demand in the easing cycle, the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Short-term silver prices are also expected to remain volatile, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10,950 yuan/kilogram - 11,550 yuan/kilogram [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025 (local time), the bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate; President Trump plans to cut some federal programs favored by Democrats [1] - New York Fed President Williams supports further interest rate cuts this year to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market; he believes the US economy is not in recession, inflation risks have eased but still need attention, and monetary policy remains "moderately tight" [1] - US Treasury Secretary has completed the last round of interviews for the next Fed Chair candidate, and Trump will make a final decision from four candidates [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 909.96 yuan/gram and closed at 914.32 yuan/gram, a change of 4.57% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 902.28 yuan/gram, down 1.31% from the afternoon close [2] - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,200 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,169 yuan/kilogram, a change of 2.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 605,570 lots, and the open interest was 477,441 lots. The night session closed at 11,078 yuan/kilogram, down 0.81% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.544%, a change of -0.42 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract on October 9, 2025, long positions decreased by 1,783 lots and short positions decreased by 1,463 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 285,521 lots, a change of -32.03% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,005,687 lots, a change of -39.90% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 1,014.58 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,416 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 9, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -17.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,078.81 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was approximately 81.86, a change of 1.10% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 82.33, a change of 0.66% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 51,446 kilograms, a change of -21.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 592,680 kilograms, a change of 123.93% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,886 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 88,590 kilograms [7]

Report Overview - The report is the precious metals and non - ferrous metals morning report of Baocheng Futures on August 29, 2025, covering gold and copper [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - For gold, short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, with an intraday view of being volatile and bullish. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the rising expectation of interest rate cuts is favorable for the gold price, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure in the volatile range [1] - For copper, short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, with an intraday view of being volatile and bullish. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the domestic and foreign macro - environment has cooled, and as the domestic peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: After the Asian session yesterday, the gold price continued to rise. New York gold reached above $3450, London gold reached above $3400, and Shanghai gold reached above 785 yuan [3] - **Driving Factors**: Nvidia's third - quarter guidance was not bright, and its trend was weakening, which may give gold a safe - haven premium. Since Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price has been on an upward trend. The relatively small increase of Shanghai gold is largely due to the appreciation of the RMB and the expectation of continuous appreciation [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure of London gold [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: The copper price oscillated and stabilized yesterday, and maintained a volatile and bullish trend at night, approaching the 79,000 - yuan mark [5] - **Driving Factors**: The decline in copper price may be due to the short - term decline in overseas risk appetite, and the entire non - ferrous metal sector generally fell after the Asian session yesterday. On the industrial side, as the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches in China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and industrial support is gradually strengthening [5] - **Market Sentiment**: The copper position has decreased significantly compared with July, indicating a significant decrease in capital attention, and the volatility may continue to be at a low level. Short - term attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term and mid - term views of gold are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The short - term and mid - term views of copper are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and strengthening", and the reference view is also "wait - and - see" [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Yesterday's night session saw the gold price hit bottom and rebound, while the US dollar index rose and then fell. Since Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price has been on an upward trend. Technically, New York gold is approaching the $3450 mark, the upper limit of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3] - **Driving Factors**: The less - than - impressive Q3 guidance of NVIDIA led to a nearly 3% drop after the market, and the short - term decline in the equity market may give gold a safe - haven premium. The increasing expectation of interest rate cuts is beneficial to the gold price. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure of the oscillation range [1][3] Copper - **Price Trend**: After the Asian session yesterday, LME copper continued to decline, and SHFE copper opened lower at night and fell below the 79,000 - yuan mark. The overall non - ferrous metal sector generally declined after the Asian session yesterday [5] - **Driving Factors**: The decline in copper prices may be due to the short - term decline in overseas risk appetite. The domestic stock index fell from a high yesterday, and the strong willingness of long - position holders to liquidate may have cooled the overall commodity atmosphere. Domestically, as the peak season approaches, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and industrial support is gradually strengthening. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - President Trump announced that gold will not be subject to tariffs, leading to a significant drop in precious metal prices, with COMEX gold futures down 2.78% to $3394.1 per ounce and silver down 2.29% to $37.66 per ounce [1] - If the tariff ruling remains in place, it could have profound implications for the global gold market, with analysts suggesting that gold prices may experience strong fluctuations, potentially breaking through the $3500 per ounce resistance level [2] - Silver prices are expected to follow gold's upward trend, with a potential challenge to the $39 per ounce mark if it can stabilize above the $38.5 per ounce key resistance level [2] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main contract rising 8% to 81,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply disruptions from the shutdown of the Jiangxia Wokeng mining area by CATL [5][6] - The shutdown of the Jiangxia Wokeng mining area is expected to reduce supply by approximately 6.8 million tons in the second half of the year, with a monthly supply decrease of 14,000 to 16,000 tons, representing about 13% of the current domestic monthly supply [8] - Analysts believe that while the current price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly, the supply-demand balance may shift, potentially leading to a small supply gap if demand remains optimistic [9]