利率债行情修复
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国泰海通固收:利率债行情逐步修复,年初首周银行买入力量明显增强
Cai Jing Wang· 2026-01-28 00:52
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the bond market is expected to operate relatively weakly by the end of 2025, with banks showing overall limited allocation to bonds of various maturities [1] - As 2026 approaches, banks' annual KPIs will gradually stabilize, leading to a recovery in the bond market, with significant buying power from banks in the first week of the year covering various maturities [1] - The buying activity from banks remains more structural and selective rather than a broad-based increase, focusing on higher cost-performance bonds such as certain maturities of government bonds and policy bank bonds [1] Group 2 - Large banks are expanding their allocation to government bonds and starting to increase their investment in policy bank bonds, while significantly reducing their holdings in long-term local government bonds [1] - Medium and small banks are engaging in a "front buy, back sell" strategy for secondary market bonds [1] - In the funding market, there is an expansion in borrowing and a contraction in lending, with an increase in leverage ratios across institutions and a rise in the proportion of overnight transactions [1]