固定收益周报 固 定 收 益 研 究 楼市新政冲击债市，利率曲线转为熊陡 ――利率债周报 | | 分析师： 王哲语 | | SAC NO： 年 月 日 S1150524070001 2026 2 27 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研 | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | 统计区间：2026 年 2 月 13 日至 2026 年 2 月 26 日 | | | | [Table_IndInvest] |  | 重要事件点评 | | | 究 | 王哲语 | | | | | | 022-23839051 | | 金融数据：2026 年 1 月社融同比多增主要来自政府债券融资支撑，信 贷"开门红"成色一般，居民和企业的中长期融资需求相对偏弱。展望 | | | | wangzheyu@bhzq.com | | | | | | 周喜 | | 来看，1 月结构性降息有望逐步显效，但春节错月影响下，预计 2 月社 融存量同比增速、M1 及 M2 同比增速将有所回落。 | | | | SAC NO：S1150511010017 |  | 资金价格：央行超量 亿元 ...

事件点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：1 月末，上清所债券托管量 49.71 万亿元（前值为 49.88 万亿元，下同）， 月净减 1762.93 亿元（-2045.04 亿元）；中债登债券托管量 129.60 万亿元（128.67 万亿元），月净增 9339.10 亿元（+5070.75 亿元）。上清所、中债登合计债券托管 量 179.31 万亿元（178.55 万亿元），月净增 7576.17 亿元（+3025.71 亿元）。 整体：上清所、中债登合计债券托管量环比多增 1 月上清所、中债登合计债券托管量 179.31 万亿元（178.55 万亿元），月净增 7576.17 亿元（+3025.71 亿元），环比增量回升。 上清所债券托管量 49.71 万亿元（49.88 万亿元），月净减 1762.93 亿元（-2045.04 亿元），环比较 12 月少减；中债登债券托管量 129.60 万亿元（128.67 万亿元）， 月净增 93 ...

信用债周策略 20260224 信用债春节后的季节效应 glmszqdatemark 2016 年-2026 年信用债在春节前后的行情复盘：复盘过去 10 年（2016 年-2025 年）的市场数据，春节前后的信用债节后走势通常优于节前。具体来看，春节前 信用债市场可能收到资金面和临近假期交易情绪清淡的扰动。而在春节假期结束 后，随着节前取出的现金回流至银行体系，市场流动性通常会迎来阶段性的宽松。 近十年春节后季节效应的结论：复盘近 10 年历年春节后的行情，信用债市场的 胜率较高。近 10 年，不同品种春节后有 60%-70%的收益率下行概率。具体分品 种角度，若在春节前布局，二级资本债（71.43%）和 10Y 利率债（70.00%）是 收益率下行概率最高的品种。分期限和品种看，其中，3Y 信用债（70.48%）、 3YAAA 城投债（70.00%）和中短期票据（70.00%）表现最为突出。从收益率角 度看，信用债的收益率变化弹性更大。城投债的下行幅度平均是国债的 2.4 倍， 从 T+10 日的表现来看，"春节后做多"或是高胜率策略，且 3Y AAA 城投债 的收益弹性远高于 10Y 国债。 信用债春节 ...

e公司 . e公司，证券时报旗下专注上市公司新媒体产品，立志打造A股上市公司资讯第一平台。提供7x24小时上市公司标准化快讯，针对可能影响上市公司股价的 主题概念、行业事件及时采访二次解读，从投资者需求出发，直播上市公司有价值的活动、会议。 时值马年春节假期，A股股市正处于休市中，但证券时报·e公司记者注意到，不少券商分析师春节"不打烊"。 大年初一（2月17日），部分券商坚持发布投资"干货"。有券商提到，A股估值处于历史中低位，全球比较具性价比。 国金证券研究发布了一篇《驭势马年新动能丨AI应用篇》的文章。文章指出，AI应用产业趋势确立，2026年有望迎来"双击"。其认为，部分公司AI订单/收 入/ARR占到整体收入的比例达到10%及以上，冷启动时间已过。行业基本面于2025年下半年确立拐点，利润弹性高、赔率显著。 针对AI应用产业角度，国金证券推荐四大方向。一是超级入口：大模型量收共振，作为流量与商业化双重枢纽的逻辑已实现。二是AI Infra：软件定义算 力，获取"卖铲子"的确定收益。软件基建决定了AI应用的成本曲线与能力天花板，且先于应用端兑现业绩。三是高增长：AI技术升维，营销、漫剧成为商业 化落地 ...

以下文章来源于e公司 ，作者证券时报 曾剑 e公司 . e公司，证券时报旗下专注上市公司新媒体产品，立志打造A股上市公司资讯第一平台。提供7x24小时上市公司标准化快讯，针对可能影响上市公司股价的 主题概念、行业事件及时采访二次解读，从投资者需求出发，直播上市公司有价值的活动、会议。 时值马年春节假期，A股股市正处于休市中，但证券时报·e公司记者注意到，不少券商分析师春节"不打烊"。 大年初一（2月17日），部分券商坚持发布投资"干货"。有券商提到，A股估值处于历史中低位，全球比较具性价比。 国金证券研究发布了一篇《驭势马年新动能 | AI应用篇》的文章。文章指出，AI应用产业趋势确立，2026年有望迎来"双击"。 其认为，部分公司AI订单/ 收入/ARR占到整体收入的比例达到10%及以上，冷启动时间已过。行业基本面于2025下半年确立拐点，利润弹性高、赔率显著。 针对AI应用产业角度，国金证券推荐四大方向。一是超级入口：大模型量收共振，作为流量与商业化双重枢纽的逻辑已实现。二是AI Infra：软件定义算 力，获取"卖铲子"的确定收益。软件基建决定了AI应用的成本曲线与能力天花板，且先于应用端兑现业绩。三是 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that A-shares are currently undervalued compared to historical levels, presenting a global comparative advantage [1][2][6] - Guotai Junan Securities predicts that the AI application industry will establish a trend, with a potential "double hit" expected in 2026, as some companies see AI orders/revenue/ARR constituting over 10% of total revenue [1][6] - The report identifies four key directions for AI applications: super entry points, AI infrastructure, high growth sectors, and high barrier industries [1][6] Group 2 - The analysis from Dongfang Caifu Securities indicates that 2026 will be a phase of "structural repair" and "new momentum cultivation," necessitating asset diversification to manage uncertainties [2][7] - The report discusses various asset classes: cash assets are under pressure in a low-interest environment but provide liquidity; bond assets are reasonably valued but face pressure on long-term yields; stock assets are seen as undervalued, particularly in high-dividend sectors [2][7][8] - The recommendation includes a pyramid model for asset allocation, with a focus on high-grade bonds and utility stocks, while also suggesting participation in industrial metals and frontier sectors like commercial aerospace and AI applications [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Recent bond market fluctuations have slowed, with credit bonds performing slightly better than interest rate bonds, mainly driven by institutional allocation behavior. Banks' asset allocation has shifted from "bond - loan resonance" to "bond - substitution for loan", and credit bonds have become a key focus. Insurance funds are increasing their allocation of medium - and long - term credit bonds due to the dominance of dividend - paying insurance during the "good start" period. The continuous net inflow of funds at the liability end of funds supports the market of credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds. It is suggested to focus on 5 - year AA - rated medium - and short - term notes, AAA - and AA + commercial bank perpetual bonds, and explore the structural opportunities of credit bonds [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Bank Bond - Loan Allocation: From Resonance to Substitution - Since the beginning of the year, large - scale banks' bond purchases have significantly exceeded market expectations, leading to a decline in the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds. By reviewing the data from 2023 - 2025, it is found that the substitution effect of bond investment for credit lending in 2025 was more significant than in previous years. The bond - loan allocation behavior of banks can be summarized into three combination models: "strong in both bonds and loans", "weak in both bonds and loans", and "one rising while the other falling". The increase in credit bond allocation by banks has become a key way to make up for the asset gap and rebalance risk and return, and has also stabilized the credit bond market [17][21]. Insurance "Good Start" Funds Drive Credit Bond Allocation - Based on the structural characteristics of insurance premium income in 2025, the incremental demand for insurance funds to allocate credit bonds may continue to increase in 2026, with the "good start" funds being the main driving force. In 2025, the insurance industry's original insurance premium income reached 6.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. In 2026, dividend - paying insurance products dominated the "good start" sales, which have higher requirements for investment returns and are expected to guide insurance funds to increase their allocation of credit bonds [25]. New Features of Insurance Allocation: The Development of Dividend - Paying Insurance Benefits Medium - and Long - Term Credit Bonds - At the beginning of 2026, insurance funds showed a clear maturity preference for credit bond allocation, with medium - and long - term credit bonds becoming the core of increased allocation. In the first two weeks of January, the net purchase of medium - and long - term credit bonds by insurance institutions accounted for 84% and 94% of the total net purchase of credit bonds. The planned annual increase in holdings of this type of bonds is 39%. This change is mainly driven by the transformation of the liability side. It is expected that the trend of increasing the allocation of medium - and long - term credit bonds by insurance in February 2026 will continue [30]. Tier 2 Capital Bonds: Funds and Insurance Show a Strong Allocation Pattern - Since the beginning of 2026, in the 6 - week period, the market for 3 - to 5 - year Tier 2 capital bonds has shown a pattern of "strong allocation by funds and insurance". Fund companies and products have maintained a high level of buying, with a cumulative net purchase of 759.85 billion yuan. Insurance funds have also strengthened their allocation, with a net purchase of 422.47 billion yuan. The demand for wealth - management products has been stable, with a net purchase of 40.45 billion yuan [37]. Which is Better: Urban Investment Bonds or Industrial Bonds? Based on Historical Price - Ratio Rules - The yields of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds of the same rating and maturity are not completely comparable. Referring to historical price - ratio rules, when the yield of AAA urban investment bonds is about 2bp higher than that of the same - maturity AAA industrial bonds, and when the yield of AA + urban investment bonds is about 2bp lower than that of the same - maturity AA + industrial bonds, it is a better allocation point. Industrial bonds show greater internal differentiation, while urban investment bonds have more convergent pricing. Different rating and maturity bonds have different allocation recommendations based on historical quantiles [40]. Variety Allocation Strategy: Explore Industrial Spreads and Focus on Interest Rate Defense - Considering the current spread quantiles, valuation levels, and market rotation rhythm, the recommended priority for next - week's credit bond allocation is: 5 - year AA - rated medium - and short - term notes > 5 - year AAA - commercial bank perpetual bonds > 5 - year AA + commercial bank perpetual bonds. The main reasons are that the 5 - year AA - rated medium - and short - term notes have obvious allocation value, the 5 - year China Development Bank bonds still have thick spread protection, and the 5 - year AAA - and AA + commercial bank perpetual bonds have room for performance due to the spread compression of medium - and long - term Tier 2 capital bonds [45].

本文原载于《证券时报》2026年2月12日头版 责编：叶舒筠 校对：王锦程 为了寻求比存款利率更高的投资收益，住户和非金融企业的存款表面上是"搬家"到了资管产品，但其中 很大规模资金又以非银行金融机构存款的形式回流银行表内负债端。这是因为大部分居民和企业对资金 配置的主要诉求是保值，追求安全稳健的收益，对固收类资管产品的需求量大，这些产品相应的底层资 产会更多配置存单、利率债等安全性高的债权类资产。不过，资管产品新增资产主要集中于同业存款或 存单，也反映出资管机构的投资策略高度趋同，可投资产种类有限。 未来一段时间，我国的利率水平仍将保持低位运行。短期看，居民企业的金融资产配置在存款与固收类 资管产品之间切换还是主流。长远看，居民企业积累的庞大存量财富和持续产生的新增财富迫切需要更 丰富的资产类别供投资选择，有序引导更多资金配置从债权类资产向股权类资产转移将是大趋势，但这 离不开一个重要的"吸引力前提"：资本市场不能大起大落，要让更多的普通投资者真正赚到钱，才能慢 慢改变广大投资者的投资风险偏好。因此，建立增强资本市场内在稳定性长效机制，促进资本市场健康 稳定发展，不仅是稳市之基，更是打造资管行业良性竞争生态 ...

为了寻求比存款利率更高的投资收益，住户和非金融企业的存款表面上是"搬家"到了资管产品，但其中 很大规模资金又以非银行金融机构存款的形式回流银行表内负债端。这是因为大部分居民和企业对资金 配置的主要诉求是保值，追求安全稳健的收益，对固收类资管产品的需求量大，这些产品相应的底层资 产会更多配置存单、利率债等安全性高的债权类资产。不过，资管产品新增资产主要集中于同业存款或 存单，也反映出资管机构的投资策略高度趋同，可投资产种类有限。 未来一段时间，我国的利率水平仍将保持低位运行。短期看，居民企业的金融资产配置在存款与固收类 资管产品之间切换还是主流。长远看，居民企业积累的庞大存量财富和持续产生的新增财富迫切需要更 丰富的资产类别供投资选择，有序引导更多资金配置从债权类资产向股权类资产转移将是大趋势，但这 离不开一个重要的"吸引力前提"：资本市场不能大起大落，要让更多的普通投资者真正赚到钱，才能慢 慢改变广大投资者的投资风险偏好。因此，建立增强资本市场内在稳定性长效机制，促进资本市场健康 稳定发展，不仅是稳市之基，更是打造资管行业良性竞争生态的关键一环。 责任编辑：王馨茹 证券时报记者 孙璐璐 央行近日首次在货币政策 ...

未来一段时间，我国的利率水平仍将保持低位运行。短期看，居民企业的金融资产配置在存款与固收类资管产品 之间切换还是主流。长远看，居民企业积累的庞大存量财富和持续产生的新增财富迫切需要更丰富的资产类别供 投资选择，有序引导更多资金配置从债权类资产向股权类资产转移将是大趋势，但这离不开一个重要的"吸引力前 提"：资本市场不能大起大落，要让更多的普通投资者真正赚到钱，才能慢慢改变广大投资者的投资风险偏好。因 此，建立增强资本市场内在稳定性长效机制，促进资本市场健康稳定发展，不仅是稳市之基，更是打造资管行业 良性竞争生态的关键一环。 早在1月中旬举行的国新办新闻发布会上，央行公布的一组数据就能看出存款腾挪背后的流向趋势：2025年资管产 品募集自住户和非金融企业的资金分别增加4万亿元和1万亿元，资管产品底层资产中，存款和存单新增4.6万亿 元，占资管各类新增底层资产的五成。 为了寻求比存款利率更高的投资收益，住户和非金融企业的存款表面上是"搬家"到了资管产品，但其中很大规模 资金又以非银行金融机构存款的形式回流银行表内负债端。这是因为大部分居民和企业对资金配置的主要诉求是 保值，追求安全稳健的收益，对固收类资管产品的需 ...