固定收益 | 固定收益定期 机构行为周度跟踪 证券研究报告 长假前后，机构谨慎为主 债市活力指数继续下降 截至 10 月 10 日，债市活力指数较 9 月 26 日下降 8pcts 至 0%，5D-MA 下降 18pcts 至 5%。 其中，无债市活力升温指标，降温指标包括：十年期国开债隐含税率（反 向）（滚动两年分位数持平在 0%）、10Y 国开债活跃券成交额/9-10Y 国开债 余额（滚动两年分位数由 19%降至 16%）、银行间债市杠杆率较过去 4 年同 期均值的超额水平（滚动两年分位数由 12%降至 6%）、中长期纯债基久期中 位数（滚动两年分位数由 89.0%降至 87.6%）、30Y 国债换手率（滚动两年分 位数由 24%降至 3%）。 机构买卖行为跟踪：节前基金谨慎加仓；节后交投清淡 1）买卖力度与券种选择：基金主要净买入中短债，保险转为卖出 整体来看，9/29-10/10 期间，现券市场净买入力度排序为：货基>基金> 其他产品类>保险>理财>外资银行>大行>其他，净卖出力度排序为股份 行>城商行>农村金融>券商。 券种选择上，目前各类机构主力的券种为：1）大行主力 7-10Y 利率债；2） 农 ...

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 409 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on October 10, with a total bid amount of 409 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 409 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, 600 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 191 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market saw continued easing, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions dropping close to 1.30% [3] - The overnight quotes on the anonymous click (X-repo) system also fell to 1.3%, indicating ample supply [3] - Non-bank institutions faced a three-day actual borrowing period for overnight funds due to a weekend holiday, with the latest quotes remaining above 1.5% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.12% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.66%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7] Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline: 30-year main contract down 0.49%, 10-year down 0.06%, 5-year down 0.09%, and 2-year down 0.05% [13] Recent Developments in Government Bonds - The issuance of special long-term government bonds is nearing completion, with a 50-year special bond issued on October 10 at a weighted average yield of 2.2977%, slightly higher than the previous day's closing yield of 2.2975% [14] - The yield on 30-year government bonds increased by approximately 1 basis point following the issuance [14] - The People's Bank of China reported that as of August 2025, the loan balance for Shanghai's "Five Major Articles" reached 4.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, outpacing the growth rate of various loans by 6.6 percentage points [14] Regulatory and Market News - The former head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission's issuance review committee is under investigation for serious violations of duty [15] - Qualcomm is under investigation by China's market regulatory authority for failing to legally declare its acquisition of Autotalks, potentially violating antitrust laws [15] Global Macro Developments - Japan and the U.S. reaffirmed their commitment to trade agreements, with Japan's chief negotiator confirming ongoing discussions to strengthen economic ties [16] - Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that inflation is not as concerning as previously expected, with expectations for further rate cuts as part of risk management [16] - Bridgewater's founder Dalio warned about the rapid growth of U.S. government debt, likening the current atmosphere to the years leading up to World War II [16] Bond Market Highlights - The total amount raised by securities firms through bond issuance this year reached 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.22% [18] - New home sales in major cities like Beijing and Shenzhen saw a year-on-year increase at the start of October, indicating structural differentiation in the real estate market [18] - Japan's Ministry of Finance plans to auction 4.3 trillion yen in short-term government bonds on October 17 [18] - Japan's 5-year government bond yield reached 1.24%, the highest since July 2008 [18]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market outlook for October 2025, with a focus on credit bonds and interest rate bonds [2][7][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Travel Data and Real Estate Sales**: Strong travel data during the National Day holiday indicates robust activity, but real estate sales were slightly weaker than the previous year, leading to a neutral impact on the bond market [2][5]. - **U.S. Economic Indicators**: The U.S. government shutdown has resulted in the absence of key non-farm payroll data, while the ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, raising expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [2][6]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, utilizing various tools to ensure liquidity, while being cautious of risks associated with fund idling [2][7]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The overall low interest rate environment is leading to a decline in the profitability of pure bond assets, making it difficult for long-term rates to decrease significantly in October [2][7]. - **Credit Bond Market Performance**: The credit bond market experienced volatility in September, with a steepening yield curve and fluctuating credit spreads. A defensive strategy focusing on short-duration bonds is recommended for October [2][8][12]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Impact of Regulatory Changes**: The introduction of new public fund sales regulations in early September caused significant market disruptions, leading to a sell-off of government bonds to maintain liquidity, which resulted in a passive narrowing of credit spreads [2][10]. - **Seasonal Factors**: Concerns over institutional redemptions at the end of September led to a significant rise in credit bond yields and widening credit spreads [2][11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - For institutions with moderate stability, focus on 2-3 year credit varieties, particularly 3-year bank subordinated capital instruments, while being cautious of liquidity risks [3][14]. - For stable institutions, consider participating in 4-5 year bank subordinated capital instruments, but be aware of potential volatility [3][14]. - Avoid excessive participation in ultra-long-term non-financial bonds due to their lower liquidity and potential for significant price adjustments [3][14].

展望四季度，若基金费率销售新规落地以及理财浮盈逐步释放完毕， 信用类资产价值会否迎来重估？如何把握其中的参与机会？ 一、三季度，信用结构性抗跌与品种性超跌 三季度，债市持续调整，信用债多跟随利率债调整，内部整体呈现结 构性抗跌与品种性超跌的特征： 固定收益 | 固定收益专题 短信用整体相对抗跌，收益率上行幅度多落在 10bp 以内，信用利小 幅收窄，且是当季为数不多的录得正向回报的债券品种。 二永"利率放大器"属性再现，赎回担忧下频现急跌与深跌，尤其是 长端二永债，收益率累计上行逾 30bp，甚至 50bp，跌幅显著高于普信债。 此外，在持续近两个半月的调整中，超长信用债的跌幅也不浅。 二、配置盘的"交易行为"变化 信用资产价值重估之路 证券研究报告 信用策略系列 7 月以来，长端利率中枢震荡抬升，宏观叙事变化以及监管因素冲击 下，引发机构行为变化带来的交易摩擦与筹码互换，信用品种收益率整体 跟随调整之外也走出了结构性抗跌、品种性超跌的行情； 理财净买入信用债占整体债券净买入的比重中枢抬升。一方面，调整 后的信用票息价值逐步有所显现；另一方面，8-9 月普信债一级供给环比 明显走弱。 相应地，理财对存单的二级 ...

华泰证券指出，10月开始基本面和供给都进入对债有利的阶段，资金面维持平稳，降息降准、购债依然 有博弈空间。预计节后债市偏弱震荡，关注十五五规划、公募销售新规落地、或机构行为冲击带来超调 时的小幅反击机会，十年国债老券1.8%以上逢调整配置。品种上，短期建议继续保持5-7年及以下利率 债、中短端信用债持仓，规避超长债。坚持中期曲线小幅陡峭化判断。 ...

大家好，今天给大家讲一个真实的投资故事，也顺便分享2025下半年金融投资的三大策略。 故事告诉我们，投资不是靠运气，而是靠策略、数据和耐心。下半年机会依然存在，但分化明显，盯准趋势、稳健操作，比盲目追涨更重要。 好了，今天的金融投资故事分享到这里。如果你觉得有启发，记得点赞关注，我会持续为大家带来最新的投资案例、市场数据和策略，让你在波动中稳健获 利。 1. 攻一：结构化股市机会——科技、新能源、消费板块龙头； 2. 攻二：趋势性理财产品——结构性理财、主题ETF； 3. 攻三：灵活布局热点行业——结合政策和行业数据； 4. 守一：债券稳健配置——利率债、高等级企业债，抵御波动。 第二招——债券与稳健理财搭配。小李把30%的资金投入利率债和高等级企业债，同时配置了一部分货币基金。这一部分资金收益稳定，同时波动低，起到 资产组合中的"缓冲器"作用。当股市出现短期回调时，这部分资金为他提供了安全感，也让整体投资组合稳健增值。对于稳健型投资者，这招非常值得借 鉴。 第三招——灵活运用结构性理财和ETF产品。小李把剩下的30%资金分散投入分级基金、结构性理财产品和主题ETF。他根据市场趋势，定期调整仓位，避 免追高， ...

大家好，今天我们来聊聊2025年下半年，投资市场到底藏着哪些机会。很多人问我："现在入场，股票还能涨吗？债券会不会再跌？房产是不是已经错过 了？"其实，市场永远不会完全平静，关键是你能不能抓住那些被低估的机会。 首先，咱们看看股市。上半年市场经历了不少波动，但分化非常明显。科技板块依然是长期潜力股，尤其是人工智能、半导体和新能源相关企业，它们的技 术壁垒高，业绩增长稳定。下半年，如果市场再出现调整，这些优质科技股反而可能成为吸筹的好机会。记住一句话：别人恐慌的时候，你要冷静；别人贪 婪的时候，你要谨慎。 最后提醒大家，投资永远不是跟风，而是策略和耐心的结合。无论是股票、债券还是房产，都要有清晰的计划：你愿意承担多大的风险？你的投资目标是什 么？千万不要被短期波动吓退，也不要盲目追高。 总结一下，下半年三大板块值得重点关注：科技与新能源、消费升级、优质房地产市场。同时，稳健投资的债券配置也不能忽视。市场机会永远存在，关键 是你能否保持冷静、理性判断，抓住真正的"窗口期"。 好了，今天的财经口播就到这里。如果你觉得有收获，记得点赞关注，我会持续为大家带来最新投资机会解析和市场趋势判断。 第三就是新能源和绿色产业。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the simulated credit style portfolio yields have generally declined, while the losses in most interest rate style portfolios have narrowed [3][11] - The AA+ medium-short secondary bonds and interest rate bonds in the heavy positions have stabilized in yield compared to early this month [3][18] - The average weekly yield of the credit style portfolio has decreased by 7 basis points to -0.11%, which is less than the recovery seen last week, indicating a controlled overall decline [3][18] Group 2 - In terms of yield sources, most strategy combinations have seen an increase in coupon rates, with city investment and mixed bullet strategies rising by over 0.04 basis points [4][26] - The annualized coupon rates for medium-long strategies, including city investment duration, bullet, and perpetual bond duration combinations, have risen to over 2.16% [4][26] - The coupon contributions of the credit style portfolio have fallen into the range of -35% to 0%, indicating that coupon yields are unable to cover capital loss [4][26] Group 3 - Over the past four weeks, the cumulative excess losses and volatility of the perpetual bond duration strategy have both increased [5][30] - The cumulative excess yields for city investment short-end sinking, commercial bank bond bullet, and brokerage bond duration strategies are 21.3 basis points, 14.2 basis points, and -0.8 basis points respectively [5][30] - The short-duration deposit strategies have outperformed, with excess yields reaching the highest point since March [5][32]

情绪偏冷，但反弹犹豫 债市情绪依然谨慎，连续第三周运行在情绪指数"偏冷"区间。与以往不同的是，过去每当情绪进入偏冷区域，市场 往往会自发出现一定的修复，而当前市场的反弹程度却比较弱。究其原因或在于制度不确定性仍压制市场，尤其是近 期备受关注的公募基金销售费用新规。由于政策尚处于征求意见阶段，市场对其最终影响的定价完成度不确定，从而 加重了观望情绪。鉴于新规的不确定性仍在发酵，本文将以史为鉴：一方面梳理自 2022 年以来数次典型赎回冲击的 关键特征；另一方面结合当前市场的利率、利差及基金净值等表现，尝试观察这一轮潜在赎回冲击所处的"进度"。 赎回冲击常见演绎路径 2022 年以来的 10 次赎回冲击。其中 2022 年出现 2 次，集中在四季度，受政策转向与理财集中赎回叠加影响，烈度最 强；2023 年仅在 8-9 月出现 1 次，主要源于资金收紧及地产政策调整；2024 年出现 4 次，3 次在 7-8 月，与央行调控 长端利率相关，但每次持续时间较短；9-10 月则与 924 一揽子政策有关。进入 2025 年，小规模的赎回冲击截至 9 月 已出现 3 次，均由权益市场强势叠加风险偏好回暖触发。 赎回冲击 ...

固定收益/固收周报 四季度债市或呈现震荡格局 ——固收周报（2025.09.15-2025.09.19） ◼ 核心观点 利率债：国债收益率多数上行，期限利差走阔：2025 年 09 月 12 日- 2025 年 09 月 19 日期间，央行总计开展 22,068.00 亿元逆回购操作， 净投放 6,340.00 亿元。银行间资金价格上行，其中，DR001 上行 9.98BP 至 1.4644%；DR007 上行 5.21BP 至 1.5096%。利率债一级发行 6,645.39 亿元，净融资额为 4,664.25 亿元。国债现券收益率多数上行。国债 1 年期下行 1.00BP 至 1.3900%，3 年期、5 年期、7 年期、10 年期分别 上行 1.51BP、0.47BP、4.89BP、1.19BP 至 1.5124%、1.6186%、1.7934%、 1.8789%。10Y-1Y 期限利差从 46.70BP 走阔至 48.89BP。 信用债：信用债到期收益率上行：2025 年 09 月 15 日-2025 年 09 月 21 日期间，信用债一级新发行 1231 只（含同业存单），发行规模共 计 16,91 ...