证券研究报告 【平安固收】2025年11月托管月报： 年末债市需求仍有支撑 平安证券研究所固定收益团队 2025年11月25日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 分析师：刘璐 S1060519060001 （证券投资咨询） 邮箱：liulu979@pingan.com.cn 分析师：郑子辰 S1060521090001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱： ZHENGZICHEN160@pingan.com.cn 核心摘要 10月托管规模同比持平于上月，券种上同业存单正贡献、利率债负贡献。2025年10月，债券托管余额同比增速为 14.0%，较9月下降0.1个百分点。当月新增托管规模为1.5万亿元，和去年同期新增规模基本持平。券种上，10月同业 存单是同比多增的主要贡献，银行10月可能在宽松的流动性环境下加大了同业存单的供给，以提前应对年末和明年开 门红的信贷需求。10月利率债（国债+地方债+政金债）明显少增，主要由于今年政府债供给前置。此外，信用债在企 业资产负债表修复、信用债收益率回落、科创债新政提振的背景下也实现了明显的同比多增。 分机构：配置型机构配债力量退坡，非法人产品明显增配。10月分机构来看，同比多增的主要是非法人产 ...

本周国内权益市场在多重因素作用下，出现一定程度的回调，年初至今涨幅较大的科技板块回调幅度相 对更大。特别是在11月21日，市场单日出现较大跌幅的情况下，投资者对于市场未来的走势产生了一定 程度的分歧。具体来看，上证50、沪深300和上证综指分别下跌2.7%、3.8%和3.9%。港股方面，恒生指 数和恒生科技分别下跌5.1%和7.2%。从行业来看，上周所有行业均下跌，银行食饮相对抗跌。上周银 行、食品饮料和传媒下跌相对较小，基础化工、电新和综合下跌较多。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 从外部因素看，自10月底美股科技巨头市值突破5万亿美元之后，市场对于AI泡沫化的质疑声音便不断 增强，主要集中在科技巨头在AI基础设施上的资本开支预计将高达数万亿美元，但巨额投入尚未产生 清晰的投资回报，且面临技术快速迭代过时的风险，可能形成巨大沉没成本；同时AI巨头通过相互投 资，签订天价订单，这种内部循环的商业模式脆弱，一旦某个环节出问题，整个链条可能崩塌。在上周 美国科技巨头发布了超预期的三季报并给出了对未来更为积极的展望后，其股价仍然高开低走，进一步 引发了投资者的担忧。一项创新是否存在泡沫，特别是当我们身处时代 ...

国债衍生品周报 2025/11/21 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

—— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251122 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 11 月 22 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 利率平稳信用窄幅波动 民企地产利差继续抬升 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 邮 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 3利率平稳信用窄幅波动 民企地产利差继续抬升 [Table_ReportDate] 2 ...

Group 1 - The duration of medium to long-term pure bond funds has increased, while short-term bond funds have decreased. The median duration for all medium to long-term pure bond funds reached 2.58 years, up 0.08 years week-on-week, placing it at the 80.40th percentile over the past three years [1][4][7] - The median duration for medium to long-term interest rate bond funds reached 3.69 years, increasing by 0.12 years week-on-week, and is at the 84.50th percentile over the past three years [1][7][8] - The median duration for short-term pure bond funds decreased to 0.95 years, down 0.02 years week-on-week, and is at the 83.50th percentile over the past three years [1][7][12] Group 2 - The turnover rate for interest rate bonds has decreased, while the turnover rate for credit bonds has increased. The turnover rate for 10-year and above government bonds decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 1.92%, placing it at the 49.6th percentile over the past three years [1][14][18] - The turnover rate for 5-7 year medium-term notes increased by 0.03 percentage points to 1.23%, at the 28.7th percentile over the past three years [1][14][18] - Local government bonds in Qingdao, Jiangxi, and Jiangsu have shown higher turnover rates, with valuation spreads of 13.81 bps, 10.93 bps, and 11.36 bps respectively [1][21][22] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the interbank bond market has increased by 0.12 percentage points to 107.17%. The leverage ratio for insurance companies rose by 0.12 percentage points to 128.87%, while the leverage ratio for banks increased by 0.03 percentage points to 102.66% [1][23][28] - The leverage ratio for securities companies decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 224.13%, and the broad fund leverage ratio increased by 0.42 percentage points to 111.89% [1][23][31] Group 4 - The total market's existing wealth management scale increased by 30.252 billion yuan week-on-week, consistent with seasonal levels, while the net value breaking rate slightly decreased [1][29][30] - The scale of fixed-income wealth management products saw significant growth, while other investment types experienced minor fluctuations [1][33][34] - The performance comparison benchmarks for wealth management products showed a decline for 1 month (inclusive) and 1-3 years (inclusive), while remaining stable for 6 months-1 year (inclusive) and over 3 years [1][39][40]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to navigate a landscape characterized by low interest rates and high volatility, with various factors influencing the market dynamics, including economic recovery, monetary policy adjustments, and fiscal measures [1][21]. Interest Rate Bonds - The bond market is anticipated to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" pattern, with limited downward space for interest rates but persistent fluctuations [2][3]. - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a focus on obtaining stable coupon income and increasing exposure to equity assets to enhance overall returns [2]. - Predictions indicate that the ten-year government bond yield may drop to around 1.6% in the first quarter but could rebound to approximately 1.9% later in the year due to economic recovery and inflation expectations [3]. - A bullish steepening of the yield curve is expected, with the ten-year government bond yield potentially declining to a range of 1.2% to 1.5% [4]. - The N-shaped interest rate trend is forecasted, with significant adjustments expected in the first quarter and the second half of the year, while the second quarter may present favorable trading opportunities [5]. Credit Bonds - The credit bond market is expected to exhibit low spreads, with a shift from simple "downward" strategies to more refined approaches focusing on regions, industries, and individual credits [6][8]. - If the wide credit process progresses smoothly, credit risks may ease, leading to a reduction in bond defaults [8]. - The focus should be on mid to long-term credit bonds, particularly those with potential for spread compression, while avoiding low-quality private real estate bonds and high-risk regional bonds [9][11]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential rate cuts and innovative tools to support liquidity and the yield curve [12][13]. - The window for rate cuts is anticipated to open between late 2025 and early 2026, with limited pressure on banks' net interest margins due to changing deposit structures [14]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to play a significant role, with a focus on targeted support rather than broad-based expansion [16]. External Environment - The narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential is a key external factor, with expectations that the spread between ten-year U.S. and Chinese bonds will continue to narrow [18]. - The U.S. bond market is projected to experience a flattening yield curve, with ten-year U.S. Treasury yields expected to exceed 2.2% due to persistent inflation and employment recovery [19]. - Attention should be paid to the "local divergence" between China and overseas experiences, particularly regarding the impact of government leverage and inflation on interest rates [20].

2026年，不是下一个周期的简单延续，而是一场系统性重构的起点。 在11月18日万得3C会议线上路演中，华泰证券研究所所长张继强以" 新开局下的叙事与主线" 为主题，系统梳理了未来三年宏观经济、政策逻辑与资产定 价的核心变局。这场深度分享，没有碎片化观点，没有短期情绪煽动，而是以严谨的框架、清晰的逻辑，为机构投资者勾勒出一幅"从宏观到配置"的全景 地图。 一、宏观叙事：从"稳增长"到"高质量发展"的范式迁移 张继强指出，过去十年，"稳增长"是政策主轴，货币与财政协同发力，核心目标是保就业、稳地产、托经济。但2024年之后，这一叙事正在被彻底改写。 新范式的核心特征： 财政主导、货币配合： 财政发力从"大水漫灌"转向"精准滴灌"，专项债、特别国债聚焦科技、绿色、民生三大领域； "我们不再问'经济会不会失速'，而要问'高质量增长的韧性在哪里'。"——张继强 这意味着，传统依赖地产链、基建链的资产逻辑将系统性弱化，而真正具备技术壁垒、全球竞争力、政策支持的产业，将获得持续的估值溢价。 二、产业主线：三大结构性机会，定义2026的资产配置坐标 在新叙事下，张继强提炼出未来三年最具确定性的三条产业主线： 1. 高端制造 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Interest - rate bonds**: From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 126.37 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 85.09 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 41.28 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funding prices rose. During November 10 - 16, 2025, the primary issuance of interest - rate bonds was 72.6866 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 39.0322 billion yuan. Most treasury bond yields declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 40.97BP to 40.36BP [1]. - **Credit bonds**: From November 10 to November 16, 2025, 935 credit bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 120.1412 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.8766 billion yuan; the net financing amount was 2.0711 billion yuan. Most credit bond yields declined [2]. - **Large - scale asset weekly observation**: From November 7 to November 14, 2025, most of the three major US stock indexes rose; European three major stock indexes increased; US bond yields went up; the US dollar index weakened, and non - US currencies were differentiated; crude oil and gold prices rose [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds 3.1.1 Liquidity Observation - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net injection was 41.28 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funding prices rose, and most exchange - based funds also increased [15]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Issuance - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 72.6866 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 39.0322 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased compared to the previous period [25]. 3.1.3 Secondary Market Trading - Most treasury bond and state - owned development bond yields declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spreads of both narrowed [32]. 3.2 Credit Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market Issuance - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, 935 credit bonds were newly issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 120.1412 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.8766 billion yuan; the net financing amount was 2.0711 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of the number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest proportion in terms of issuance amount. Most of the issuances were AAA - rated, and the issuance was mainly for 3 - 5 - year terms. The financial industry had the largest number of issuances [43]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trading - Most credit bond yields declined. For urban investment bonds, the 1 - year AA - rated yield declined the most, and the 5 - year AAA - rated yield increased the most. For medium - and short - term notes, the 5 - year AA - rated yield declined the most, and the 10 - year AAA - rated yield increased the most [50]. 3.2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the credit bonds of 3 enterprises defaulted [54]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Most European and American Stock Indexes Rose - Most of the three major US stock indexes, European three major stock indexes, and most Asia - Pacific stock indexes rose [55]. 3.3.2 US Bond Yields Rose - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, US bond yields increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread changed to 44.00BP [58]. 3.3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakened, and Non - US Currencies Were Differentiated - The US dollar index declined by 0.26% weekly, and non - US currencies showed different trends [60]. 3.3.4 Crude Oil and Gold Prices Rose Weekly - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, gold and crude oil prices increased [66]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The macro - economic data in October verified the economic recovery path of "downplaying the aggregate and optimizing the structure". The bond market may remain volatile. Investors are advised to pay attention to the impact of the new fund regulations on the bond market. In the short term, institutional investors may reduce their allocation of pure bond funds and turn to bond ETFs or money market funds. In the long term, the new regulations are conducive to the stability of the liability side of bond funds. It is recommended to seize the band opportunities of interest - rate bonds, focus on high - rated and short - duration credit bonds, and pay attention to the Central Economic Work Conference in December [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 13, 2025, the central bank announced the financial statistics for October 2025. M2 increased by 8.2% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale at the end of October 2025 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][12]. - The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond financing slowed down, and credit demand was weak [2][13]. - M1 declined, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened slightly. However, the M1 - M2 gap has been narrowing overall this year, which is an important signal of capital activation and can boost the sentiment of the equity market in the short term [3][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Social Financing Data Validates Bond Market Space - **Social Financing Growth Rate and Composition**: The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond net financing was 48.93 billion yuan, 56.02 billion yuan less than the same period last year. New RMB loans decreased by 2.01 billion yuan, 31.66 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In direct financing, corporate bond net financing was 24.69 billion yuan, 14.82 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and non - financial enterprise domestic stock financing was 6.96 billion yuan, 4.12 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The new non - standard financing decreased by 10.85 billion yuan, 3.58 billion yuan less than the same period last year [2][13]. - **Credit Demand**: New RMB loans by financial institutions in October were 22 billion yuan, 28 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Corporate loans increased by 35 billion yuan, 22 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with obvious bill impulse, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 3 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Resident loans decreased by 36.04 billion yuan, 52.04 billion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating weak demand in the real estate market [2][14]. 3.2 M1 - M2 Spread and Capital Activation - **M1 and M2 Trends**: In October, M2 increased by 8.20% year - on - year, down 0.2 percentage points, and M1 increased by 6.20% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous value. The absolute value of the M1 - M2 gap widened slightly to 2.00pct, but it has been narrowing overall this year, which is a signal of capital activation and can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term. The growth rate difference between social financing and M2 in October was 0.30pct [3][25]. - **Deposit Changes**: In October, household deposits decreased by 134 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise deposits decreased by 108.53 billion yuan, 35.53 billion yuan more than the same period last year; fiscal deposits increased by 72 billion yuan, 12.48 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - banking financial institution deposits increased by 185 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which may promote further capital activation [3][25]. 3.3 Investment Advice - **Equity Market**: The recent narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap is an important signal of capital activation, which can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound depends on fundamental improvement and policy coordination [4][35]. - **Bond Market**: The social financing data in October shows that the growth rate of social financing has declined. The data verifies the uncertainty of the economic recovery. The bond yield has declined recently, and there is still some room for further decline. In 2026, the central bank's monetary policy will continue the "moderately loose" tone. For the bond market, investors are advised to mainly conduct band operations on interest - rate bonds, pay attention to the structural opportunities of green bonds and technology bonds in credit bonds, dynamically adjust the stock - bond ratio, and pay attention to elastic assets such as pro - cyclical convertible bonds [4][38].

"股债跷跷板"效应仍在，上周债市窄幅震荡 ——利率债周报（2025.11.10-2025.11.16） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 利率债周报 一、上周市场回顾 2025 年 11 月 17 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 时间 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 受股债跷跷板效应主导，上周债市窄幅震荡。上周公布的 10 月 金融和宏观数据表现偏弱，印证四季度经济下行预期，但市场 反应较为平淡，债市情绪仍主要受股市表现牵引，且对股市上 涨更为敏感。上周股市先调整后冲高回落、整体有所下跌，债 市随之波动，长债收益率仅微幅下行。短债方面，随着税期临 近，上周资金面趋于收敛，短债收益率小幅上行，收益率曲线 继续平坦化。 本周（11 月 17 日当周）债市仍将延续震荡格局。考虑到近期 央行通过买断式逆回购、买卖国债等工具注入中期流动性，市 场对于短期内降准的预期降温，降息预期也依然不强，加之宏 观数据进入真空期，本周债市仍将延续震荡，股市波动将继续 主导市场情绪。另外，公募赎回费率新规可能在近期落地，但 由于此前市场对其定价较为充分，短期内可能带来市场波动但 幅度料有限。总体来看，在基本面偏弱但宽松 ...