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2025 年全球资产配置逻辑重构:港股、美债与黄金的三角平衡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 02:38
Group 1 - The global capital markets are experiencing unprecedented complexity, with the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate maintained between 3.25%-3.5% and the introduction of new offshore RMB bond products by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority attracting market attention [1] - Investors are urged to reassess traditional asset allocation strategies involving stocks, bonds, and gold, particularly as certain Hong Kong-listed stocks exhibit unique value propositions [1] Group 2 - Structural opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market are becoming prominent, with the Hang Seng Index fluctuating around 23,000 points, attracting institutional investments in stocks with special positioning [2] - Specific stocks, such as the largest rare earth trade settlement platform, reached a 52-week high in August, while another company benefitted from a 143% year-on-year revenue growth due to cross-border data services in the Greater Bay Area [2] - A third stock, benefiting from the reconstruction of the ASEAN digital payment system, is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio 40% lower than the industry average, indicating a shift in traditional Hong Kong stock valuation [2] Group 3 - The normalization of the U.S. monetary policy is reflected in the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield stabilizing at 3.8% and the 2-year yield showing an inversion for over 200 trading days [3] - A bond fund linked to inflation protection has surpassed $5 billion in size, while a floating-rate municipal bond product has maintained an annualized volatility of under 1.2%, becoming a new choice for risk-averse funds [3] - An innovative "interest rate corridor strategy" ETF has achieved a stable annualized return of 5.3% by dynamically tracking changes in the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase agreement scale [3] Group 4 - The gold pricing mechanism is undergoing a transformation, with new gold derivative products emerging as the spot price of gold fluctuates around $1,950 per ounce [4] - A carbon footprint-certified gold bar product has a premium rate of 8%, while a blockchain-based gold fractional trading platform has seen daily transaction volumes exceed 1 ton [4] - A gold volatility index futures product has been developed to provide hedge funds with precise risk hedging tools, reshaping the monetary attributes and investment logic of gold [4] Group 5 - In response to the global monetary policy normalization, a "core + satellite" strategy is recommended to effectively balance returns and volatility, allocating 60% of funds to low-volatility assets, 30% to high-growth stocks, and 10% to crisis hedging tools [5] - This dynamic rebalancing strategy helped institutional investors achieve an excess return of 4.2% in the second quarter [5]