Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is experiencing a weak performance despite the overall market's potential for a strong run in 2026, with the average valuation of brokerages expected to have limited downside [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 29, the Shanghai Composite Index aimed for a nine-day winning streak, while the brokerage sector showed volatility, with the top brokerage ETF (512000) declining by 0.85% and a half-day trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan [1]. - In December, brokerages did not follow the upward trend of equity indices, maintaining a relatively weak performance due to both industry fundamentals and market conditions [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The capital market is expected to maintain a relatively strong performance in 2026, with the brokerage sector likely to remain in an upward cycle, and the year-on-year pressure on brokerage earnings in Q1 2026 is anticipated to be lighter [3]. - The brokerage sector is currently in a low valuation phase, and if the valuation drops to 1.3x P/B, it could present a good opportunity for re-entry [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Zhongyuan Securities suggests maintaining a close watch on policy, market conditions, and the brokerage sector for potential investment opportunities [4]. - The brokerage ETF (512000) and its associated funds are highlighted as efficient investment tools that provide exposure to both leading and smaller brokerages, with the ETF's latest fund size exceeding 40 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume of over 1 billion yuan this year [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a strong performance in the securities sector, with the Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437) rising by 1.32% and key stocks like Guosen Securities (002736) increasing by 4.15% [1] - A total of 2.246 million new A-share accounts were opened in the first ten months of 2025, bringing the total number of A-share investors close to 250 million, with expectations to surpass this milestone by year-end [1] - The brokerage sector is expected to see improved profitability driven by core businesses such as public funds, overseas investments, and derivatives, with a notable expansion in the return on equity (ROE) for leading brokerages [1] Group 2 - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437) include Dongfang Caifu (300059), CITIC Securities (600030), and Huatai Securities (601688), collectively accounting for 78.89% of the index [2]