Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, with the approaching new tapping season in the Southeast Asian main producing areas, the expectation of the rubber market's supply turning from tight to loose was quickly realized, suppressing the seasonal decline of rubber prices. The domestic natural rubber futures showed a weak downward trend, while the synthetic rubber futures oscillated strongly driven by the sharp rise in crude oil prices. The cumulative decline of the Shanghai Rubber Futures Contract 2605 was 1.87% to 16,835 yuan/ton; the cumulative decline of the Standard Rubber Futures Contract 2605 was 2.09% to 13,570 yuan/ton; and the cumulative increase of the Synthetic Rubber Futures Contract 2604 was 16.86% to 14,760 yuan/ton [7] - Historically, the probability of Shanghai Rubber Futures falling in March is about 80%, and the average decline is significantly higher than other months. In 2026, the phenological conditions in the Southeast Asian main producing areas are normal, and the global natural rubber supply is about to enter a continuous recovery channel. The short - term upward trend of Shanghai Rubber Futures may be maintained due to the rise in crude oil prices [7][60] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Spot price slightly declined, and basis premium widened - In the week of March 6, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 16,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week slight decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis between the spot price and the Shanghai Rubber 2605 contract futures price maintained a slightly expanded premium, reaching a premium of 65 yuan/ton [11] 1.2 Supply expectation strengthened, and rubber oscillated - Since March, with the approaching new tapping season in the Southeast Asian main producing areas, the expectation of the rubber market's supply turning from tight to loose became the core driving force for the seasonal decline of rubber prices. The domestic natural rubber futures showed a weak downward trend, while the synthetic rubber futures oscillated strongly driven by the sharp rise in crude oil prices [14][16] 2. The Global Rubber Market Supply and Demand Improved in the Third Quarter of 2025 2.1 The production and consumption of Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries decreased slightly year - on - year - In December 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 1.1278 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 164,400 tons, with a decline of 12.72%. From January to December 2025, the total production was 11.5202 million tons, a slight decrease of 112,500 tons compared with the same period of the previous year, with a decline of 0.97%. The consumption in December 2025 was 956,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 30,400 tons, with a decline of 3.08%. From January to December 2025, the total consumption was 11.0672 million tons, a decrease of 141,200 tons compared with the same period of the previous year, with a decline of 1.26% [29] - In terms of production in different countries in 2025, the production of Thailand, China, India, Cambodia, and the Philippines increased slightly year - on - year, while that of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam decreased slightly year - on - year. In terms of exports, the total annual exports of Thailand and Indonesia increased slightly, while those of Malaysia and Vietnam decreased slightly [30][32][33] 2.2 China's rubber imports increased significantly in December 2025 - China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In December 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 953,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.62% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. Thailand and Vietnam were the main import sources [37] 2.3 The tire industry resumed work after the holiday, and the industry's operating rate increased significantly - In November 2025, the output of Chinese rubber tire casings decreased slightly year - on - year. As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate may still increase slightly next week, but the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may limit the increase [40] 2.4 The domestic heavy - truck sales decreased slightly year - on - year in February 2026 - In January 2026, the production and sales of automobiles showed different trends. The production of passenger cars decreased year - on - year, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased year - on - year, and the new - energy vehicle market ran smoothly. The inventory warning index of automobile dealers in February 2026 was 56.2%, above the boom - bust line. In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decline of about 8%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [43][44] 2.5 The warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly, and the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased slightly - As of the week of March 6, 2026, the inventory of Shanghai Rubber Futures increased significantly week - on - week, and the registered warehouse receipts also increased significantly. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, with an increase rate of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.52%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.89% [58] 3. Conclusion - Historically, the probability of Shanghai Rubber Futures falling in March is about 80%. In 2026, the global natural rubber supply is about to enter a continuous recovery channel. The previous positive factors of the off - season have been fully realized, the downstream demand recovery is limited, and the inventory remains high. The sharp rise in international crude oil prices drives up the synthetic rubber price, which may weaken the downward pressure to some extent. In the short term, Shanghai Rubber Futures may maintain a strong pattern [60]