宏观经济方面，美国10月FHFA房价指数环比增长好于预期。美国10月FHFA房价指数环比增长0.4%， 高于预期值0.1%和前值-0.1%。 美国首申失业金人数大幅走低。美国12月20日当周首次申请失业救济人数19.9万人，跌破20万接近历史 最低水平，前值21.5万人，预期21.8万人。 美国炼油厂开工率略有上升。2025年12月26日当周，美国炼油厂开工率达到94.7%，相较于前周 94.6%，略有上升。 美国粗钢产量当周同比持续下降。2025年12月27日，美国粗钢产量当周同比1.8%，相较于前周3.6%进 一步下降。 主要指数相关情况 1. 一周指数表现 上周（20251229-20260102），标普油气指数整周上涨3.11%，纳斯达克100指数整周下跌1.71%，标普 500指数整周下跌1.03%，其覆盖的11个行业板块有3个上涨，其中标普500能源领涨3.29%，标普500非 必需消费领跌3.17%。 | SPSIOP. SPI | 标普油气 | 3.11% | | --- | --- | --- | | NDX. GI | 纳斯达克100 | -1.71% | | SPX. GI | 标普50 ...

地缘驱动估值 沥青月报 2026/01/04 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 相关指标 03 供应端 07 产业链结构图 04 库存 01 月度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：沥青主力合约近月走势（￥/吨） 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 3,200.0 3,400.0 3,600.0 3,800.0 4,000.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/ ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The average global crude oil inventory change for 2026 is projected to be +204.90 thousand barrels per day according to IEA, EIA, and OPEC [2] - For Q4 2025, the average inventory change is expected to be +162.53 thousand barrels per day, showing a revision from previous forecasts [2] - Global crude oil supply for 2025 is forecasted at 10617.36, 10607.84, and 10470.71 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase [2] - The global crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 10392.25, 10393.68, and 10513.66 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, reflecting a modest increase from 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil supply for 2026 to be 10865.02, 10742.59, and 10654.18 thousand barrels per day respectively, with increases from 2025 [2][35] - The Q4 2025 supply increase is projected at +414.30, +385.36, and +254.12 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [35] Oil Demand - The demand for 2026 is forecasted at 10478.51, 10516.87, and 10651.70 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a growth from 2025 [2][35] - The demand increase for Q4 2025 is expected to be +108.72, +130.72, and +152.22 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [4] Oil Prices - As of December 18, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices are reported at 59.82, 56.00, 47.94, and 65.49 USD per barrel respectively, with significant declines observed over the year [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent down by -21.22%, WTI by -23.42%, and Russian ESPO by -33.37% [9][10] Oil Inventory - The global crude oil inventory change for 2025 is projected at +225.11, +214.16, and -42.95 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with an average increase of +132.11 thousand barrels per day [26] - The U.S. total crude oil inventory as of December 12, 2025, stands at 83658.8 thousand barrels, reflecting a slight increase [19][20]

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 纯苯到港承压库存走高，苯乙烯低供去库支撑震荡 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 16 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.09%，报 6493 元/吨；纯 苯主力合约收跌 0.15%，报 5440 元/吨。 成本：12 月 16 日布油主力收盘 56.8 美元/桶（-0.6 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 60.6 美元/桶（-0.5 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5295 元/吨（-20 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.7 万吨（-1.4 万吨），纯苯港口库存 26.0 万吨 （+3.6 万吨）。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.2 万吨（+0.7 万吨），工厂产能利用率 68.3%（-0.6%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 53.8%（- 2.6%），ABS 产能利用率 70.5%（+2.2%），PS 产能利用率 58.3%（- 0.7%）。 （2）观点 纯苯：近期纯苯基本面压力仍以现实端为主。国内到港量维持高位，主 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 9月 | | | | | | | | | 前日收盘价 | 6522 | 6557 | 6583 | 6178 | 6254 | 6277 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 6476 | 6486 | 6519 | 6129 | 6168 | 6211 | | 货 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | 46 0.71% | 71 1.09% | 64 0.98% | 49 0.80% | 86 1.39% | 66 | | 市 | | | | | | | 1.06% | | 场 | 成交量 | 131615 | 458385 | 5952 | 271855 | 478514 | 9946 | | | 持仓量 | 150173 | 488788 | 9185 | ...

卓创资讯判断，后期市场需重点关注美联储降息节奏，美元趋势性走弱有望长期提振原油价格，短期国际油价维持偏强运行态 势。 据悉，下个调价窗口期为12月22日24时。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 此次下调为国内零售价年内第十一次下调。本次下调落实后，消费者用油成本将继续减少。 按当前幅度计算，本轮成品油零售限价下调落实后，私家车单次加满一箱50L的92#汽油将少花2元左右。以月跑2000公里、百公 里平均油耗8L的燃油汽车为例，下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将下降6元左右。物流行业以月跑10000公里、百公里 油耗38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将减少89元左右。 卓创资讯成品油分析师王雪琴认为，本计价周期内，欧洲局势偶有扰动，但美国石油累库，叠加感恩节假期影响，市场交投清 淡，市场多空因素交织，原油价格未能走出单边行情，整体呈现窄幅波动态势。受此影响，本计价周期内，原油变化率持续在 负值范围内运行。 21世纪经济报道记者费心懿实习生吴慧敏 今晚24时，国内成品油零售限价将下调。 12月8日，国家发改委发布消息，自24时起，国内汽油价格和柴油价格均下调55元/吨，折升价92#汽 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The asphalt supply is expected to slightly increase as some refineries resume production, while demand will weaken further due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south. The asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 34.4 million tons year-on-year. The downstream operating rates of asphalt mostly declined last week. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 6.74% to 26.21 million tons week-on-week, at a neutral level. The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years. The crude oil price oscillated at a low level, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened. This week, the asphalt operating rate will slightly increase, but overall demand will be weak. The asphalt price in Shandong has been falling, and the basis is at a neutral level. The market is cautious about winter storage contracts, and the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 rose 1.06% to 2,952 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,941 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 2,972 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 8,340 to 104,372 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price of asphalt in Shandong continued to fall to 2,940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -12 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. The investment in national highway construction from January to October decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate was flat compared with that from January to September. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry from January to October decreased by 4.3%, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed assets investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October decreased by 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September. As of the week of November 28, the downstream operating rates of asphalt mostly declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 5 percentage points to 29% week-on-week. From the perspective of social financing stock, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock from January to October was 8.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations. In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 28, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week at 14.5%, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The plastics market is expected to have limited upside space in the near term due to an overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, despite some support from policies. The开工率 of plastics has slightly declined, downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - On December 3rd, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics开工率 dropped to around 88.5%, at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week ending November 28th, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, and the cost - end crude oil price is oscillating at a low level [1] - New production capacities were put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream开工率 will decline in the future, with weak procurement willingness from downstream enterprises [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting gave some boost to bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged [1] 3.2期现行情 3.2.1 Futures - The plastics 2601 contract oscillated with a position reduction, closing at 6808 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, and the position decreased by 4354 lots to 402710 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton, and different types of PE had different price ranges [3] 3.3基本面跟踪 - Supply: On December 3rd, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics开工率 dropped to around 88.5%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 28th, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3%, with orders in the agricultural film and packaging film sectors declining [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 3.5 tons to 70 tons, 5.5 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil 02 contract oscillated around 63 dollars/barrel, and ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, but the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased. The 11 - month petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. Although the supply of new production capacity is added and the maintenance devices are slightly reduced, the downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and the plastic weaving orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 28, the changes in maintenance devices were small, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 28%. In November, the petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. There is new production capacity in supply, and the maintenance devices have slightly decreased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. Although the relevant departments' research work has given some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6302 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6413 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6409 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.91%. The position volume decreased by 50,595 lots to 506,658 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of PP in various regions mostly increased. The drawstring was reported at 6150 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 28, the changes in maintenance devices were small, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 28%. On the demand side, as of the week of November 28, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and the plastic weaving orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday was flat week - on - week at 650,000 tons, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 02 contract rose to $63/barrel, and the China CFR propylene price was flat week - on - week at $735/ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of asphalt is expected to increase as some refineries will stabilize production, while the demand will weaken further with the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south. The market is cautious, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting the lowest level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt scheduled production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month-on-month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year-on-year [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 34% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. The asphalt shipments in the Northeast increased significantly due to increased production and price cuts, and the national shipments increased 15.28% to 246,000 tons week-on-week, at a slightly below - average level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years. Crude oil prices fell due to factors such as the non - impact of sanctions on Russian oil production and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. A fire in Venezuela led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened under US military threats [1]. - This week, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing will stably produce asphalt, and the asphalt operating rate will rise. With the temperature drop in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will weaken further. The project increments in the south are limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 1.41% to 3,007 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,003 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,040 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 2,170 to 154,449 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to - 7 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped producing asphalt. The asphalt operating rate dropped 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with that from January to August 2025 but remained negative. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% from January to September 2025, still in a negative growth situation. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 0.1% from 1.1% from January to September 2025 [4]. - As of the week of November 21, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 34% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - As of the week of November 21, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% compared with the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4].