1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran has led to a significant increase in the prices of oil and chemical products. Butadiene and butadiene rubber have risen sharply due to increased costs. Attention should be paid to the spot prices of SC and Oman crude oil, while Brent and WTI crude oil have weak reference value. Asian supply is mainly pegged to the spot price of Oman crude oil, and the current spot premium is high [11]. - Currently, the increase in crude oil prices is much greater than that of downstream products. Downstream industries, especially those in Japan and South Korea, have gradually reduced their production loads, leading to a decrease in supply. As a result, crude oil prices will gradually be transmitted to downstream products, including a significant catch - up increase in butadiene rubber [11]. - The logic behind butadiene rubber is that Japan and South Korea prioritize (finished) oil over chemicals. Although demand is also suppressed by high oil prices, Asian refineries have reduced their operating rates due to a lack of raw materials or losses. This has led to a sharp contraction in the supply of intermediate chemicals from refineries and a catch - up increase in prices. The supply of butadiene has decreased significantly. China has reduced its imports of butadiene from South Korea, while South Korea and Japan have increased their exports, driving up the price of butadiene and, in turn, butadiene rubber [11]. - The operating rates of butadiene refineries and downstream butadiene rubber factories are decreasing, while the operating rate of downstream tire factories fluctuates slightly, and raw material procurement is on the sidelines. Macro - funds' sentiment temporarily dominates the market. It is expected that there will be significant short - term fluctuations, and the market will later return to being driven by fundamentals [11]. - The fundamentals of natural rubber suggest that it is prone to decline and difficult to rise after the winter storage period in the first half of the year. A sharp increase in crude oil prices will lead to a significant deterioration in demand expectations. However, the expectation of capital allocation to commodities limits the downside space. The market's expectation of state - reserve purchases has increased the upside potential of RU [11]. - RU as a whole fluctuates widely within a range, and flexible responses and risk control are recommended. If the negotiation between the US, Israel, and Iran is successful, the prices of oil and chemical products may fall rapidly. Butadiene rubber will decline due to the rapid drop in butadiene costs, driving down RU and NR rapidly. If the cost drops sharply and the refining profit improves, and mid - stream refineries resume production and increase their operating rates, it will lead to a rapid decline in BR, driving down RU and NR rapidly. Buying put options on BR can be considered to hedge against the risk of price decline [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - The conflict between the US and Iran has caused significant price increases in oil and chemical products. Butadiene and butadiene rubber have risen due to cost increases. Attention should be paid to the spot prices of SC and Oman crude oil [11]. - The operating rates of butadiene refineries and downstream butadiene rubber factories are decreasing, while the operating rate of downstream tire factories fluctuates slightly. Macro - funds' sentiment temporarily dominates the market [11]. - It is expected that there will be significant short - term fluctuations, and the market will later return to being driven by fundamentals. The fundamentals of natural rubber suggest it is prone to decline after the winter storage period in the first half of the year. The expectation of state - reserve purchases has increased the upside potential of RU [11]. - If the negotiation between the US, Israel, and Iran is successful, the prices of oil and chemical products may fall rapidly. Buying put options on BR can be considered to hedge against the risk of price decline [13]. - The industry's demand is normal, with the full - steel tire factory operating rate at 70.75% (0.03%). After the Spring Festival holiday, the resumption of work has returned to normal. The inventory in the exchange and Qingdao is 88.63 (0.79) million tons. The supply in Hainan and Yunnan is expected to start tapping in late March, while most of Thailand has stopped tapping. There are still differences in the medium - term supply expectations, with some expecting a slight fluctuation and others expecting an increase of 15 - 25 million tons [16]. - The market expects subsequent state - reserve purchase plans. The market's long - position logic is mainly based on macro - expectations and positive expectations for China's policies, while the short - position logic is mainly due to the current dull demand and the expectation of poor demand caused by tariff policies. Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire have increased their rubber exports [16]. - The rubber price is significantly affected by macro - funds in the short term, and its direction is unclear. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [16]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices prone to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectations and was below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [26]. - The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while the demand in China is stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [32][35]. - The comparison between rubber and other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, rebar, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, shows no special values or points of concern [43][47][51]. 3.3 Profits and Ratios - The comparison between rubber and other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, rebar, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, shows no special values or points of concern [43][47][51]. 3.4 Cost Side - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is generally considered to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [56]. - The maintenance cost of rubber is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, resulting in higher costs; when the price is low, they maintain less, and the cost decreases. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated [56]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tire factories show no special values or points of concern [62]. - The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and it is expected to gradually recover in the later stage, which will affect the supporting tires. The sales volume of commercial vehicles corresponds to the domestic supporting demand [66]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but it is expected to decline slightly in the later stage, corresponding to the monthly export value of new pneumatic rubber tires for passenger cars or freight motor vehicles [69]. 3.6 Supply Side - The rubber import data is mainly updated until December 2021, and the import data after the 2020 pandemic is no longer updated, reducing the analyzability of imports [74]. - The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no special values or points of concern [78][82][86][90][94][98][102][106][110]. - In January 2026, the rubber production was 1,115,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.67% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The cumulative production was 1,116,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.67%. The export was 834,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.11% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.07%. The cumulative export was 834,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.11%. The consumption was 931,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.57%. The cumulative consumption was 932,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74% [114][115].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to break through the 4,600 ringgit resistance, and Dalian palm oil futures may break through the 9,700 yuan resistance [1]. - CBOT soybean oil is expected to reach 70 cents, and domestic soybean oil has both bullish and bearish factors [1]. - Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures have a chance to rebound, with the upper pressure range at 9,900 - 10,000 yuan [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures hit an 11 - month high. The domestic cotton market is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to spinning mills' order - receiving and macro - level news [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures reached a more than five - month high. The domestic sugar market is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the mitigation of external risk factors [3]. 2.4 Jujube Industry - The jujube market is currently in a state of weak futures and spot prices, and the futures price is expected to remain at a low level in the short - term [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple futures price has fallen from a high level. The spot market is differentiated. The national cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. The market is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking of ordinary apples and weather changes [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn prices are oscillating at a high level, with support from limited remaining grain and rigid demand, and suppression from grain substitution and policy releases. The operation range is mainly between 2,350 - 2,420 yuan [7]. 2.7 Meal Industry - US soybeans have rebounded near 1,160 cents. Domestic soybean meal sentiment has cooled, and the market is waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig market is in a weak state. Spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, and the futures market is in a reverse - spread pattern. Attention should be paid to the 5 - 7 or 5 - 9 reverse - spread opportunities [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - The egg supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The egg price may face pressure near 3,550 - 3,600 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - On March 26, the average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.02% to 8,950 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 increased by 1.12% to 8,646 yuan [1]. - The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.03% to 9,603 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 increased by 1.09% to 9,614 yuan [1]. - The price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.28% to 10,268 yuan, and the futures price of OIROS increased by 1.37% to 9,840 yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - palm oil spot spread decreased by 1.24% to - 653 yuan, and the soybean - palm oil futures spread (2605) decreased by 0.83% to - 968 yuan [1]. - The rapeseed - soybean spot spread increased by 3.13% to 1,318 yuan, and the rapeseed - soybean futures spread (2605) increased by 3.20% to 1,194 yuan [1]. 3.2 Cotton Industry 3.2.1 Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 1.35% to 15,420 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 1.24% to 12,242 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of cotton increased by 10.71% to - 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.14% to 16,597 yuan, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.20% to 16,745 yuan [2]. - The FC Index: M: 1% increased by 1.55% to 13,270 yuan [2]. 3.2.3 Industry Situation - The small - scale inventory decreased by 100.0% to 0.00 tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 14.5% to 102.40 tons [2]. - The import volume decreased by 19.0% to 16.65 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% to 47.10 tons [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures Market - The price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.63% to 5,463 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.44% to 5,485 yuan/ton [3]. - The 5 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 31.25% to - 22 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The Guoyuan price remained unchanged at 5,470 yuan, and the Nanning price increased by 0.09% to 5,325 yuan [3]. - The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) decreased by 1.55% to 4,331 yuan/ton, and the import price of Brazilian sugar (outside quota) decreased by 1.58% to 5,497 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 4.69% to 926.00 tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales decreased by 27.39% to 345.00 tons [3]. - The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 8.36% to 565.13 tons, and the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi increased by 20.16% to 162.23 tons [3]. 3.4 Jujube Industry - The price of jujube 2605 decreased by 0.62% to 8,835 yuan/ton, and the price of jujube 2607 decreased by 0.94% to 9,060 yuan/ton [4]. - The 5 - 7 spread of jujube decreased by 170 yuan to - 140 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of jujube increased by 35 yuan to - 340 yuan/ton [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry - The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.32% to 9,946 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 increased by 0.21% to 8,684 yuan/ton [5]. - The 5 - 10 spread of apple decreased by 3.81% to 1,262 yuan/ton [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.6.1 Corn - The price of corn 2605 remained unchanged at 2,376 yuan/ton, and the basis remained unchanged at 14 yuan [7]. - The 5 - 9 spread of corn decreased by 26.09% to - 29 yuan [7]. 3.6.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.07% to 2,765 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 2.39% to 204 yuan [7]. - The 5 - 9 spread of corn starch increased by 41.18% to - 10 yuan [7]. 3.7 Meal Industry 3.7.1 Soybean Meal - The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3,280 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.68% to 2,952 yuan [10]. - The basis of M2605 decreased by 5.75% to 328 yuan [10]. 3.7.2 Rapeseed Meal - The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 0.39% to 2,570 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 increased by 0.21% to 2,344 yuan [10]. - The basis of RM2605 increased by 2.26% to 226 yuan [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry 3.8.1 Futures Market - The price of the main pig contract decreased by 1.45% to 9,835 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread of pigs decreased by 6.39% to - 1,415 yuan [12]. 3.8.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 9,500 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan to 9,700 yuan/ton [12]. 3.8.3 Industry Situation - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.93% to 182,741, and the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.86% to 17.25 yuan [12]. - The weekly piglet price remained unchanged at 26.20 yuan/kg, and the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.45 yuan/kg [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry - The price of the egg 04 contract increased by 2.64% to 3,418 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 05 contract increased by 2.99% to 3,512 yuan/500KG [14]. - The egg - producing area price increased by 0.47% to 3.30 yuan/jin, and the basis increased by 28.03% to - 116 yuan/500KG [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices have weakened, putting collective pressure on the oil and fat market. The prices of the three major oils and fats have declined due to the significant drop in crude oil prices influenced by international situations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,644.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 298 yuan or -3.00% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2605 contract closed at 8,594.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 146.00 yuan or -1.67%; the rapeseed oil 2605 contract closed at 9,950.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.00 yuan or +0.75% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,680.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210.00 yuan or -2.12%, with a spot basis of P05 + 36.00, an increase of 88.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,820.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90.00 yuan or -1.01%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 226.00, an increase of 56.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,340.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan or -1.34%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 530.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: On March 24, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,205 US dollars, up 2.5 US dollars from the previous day; the CIF price was 1,235 US dollars, up 2.5 US dollars from the previous day; the import cost was 10,176.75 yuan, up 25.69 yuan from the previous day; the import profit was -496.75 yuan/ton, down 65.69 yuan/ton from the previous day. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,255 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) was 1,205 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F quotes of imported rapeseed oil remained unchanged. The C&F prices of US and Brazilian soybeans increased slightly, and the import soybean premium and discount quotes changed slightly. As of March 20, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major oils and fats in China decreased slightly to 1.99 million tons, a weekly decrease of 60,000 tons, a monthly increase of 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40,000 tons, and an increase of 170,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since the beginning of the year, inflation has shown the characteristics of "CPI increase under the influence of the Spring Festival effect and PPI price increase accelerated by imported inflation". The government work report during the Two Sessions maintained the target of the consumer price increase at 2%, and pointed out that promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery should be important considerations for monetary policy. With the repeated geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices recently, the market sentiment remains cautious under the expectation of inflation turning positive. Looking forward, inflation is mainly affected by two factors: on one hand, the domestic supply is abundant, and the consumer price trend is relatively stable; on the other hand, affected by the intensifying geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the global inflation rate may rise significantly, increasing the risk of imported inflation in the later stage. Coupled with the relatively low base in 2025, it is expected that the CPI growth rate will continue a moderate recovery, and the turning point of the PPI year - on - year growth rate to positive will be advanced. The cost - performance of bonds has increased, and it is difficult for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield to break through the previous high, and it may maintain a volatile trend [6]. - The impact of the base period rotation on the CPI year - on - year index is limited, and the CPI is expected to have a moderate recovery, with the annual central value at about 0.8% [6]. - The turning point of the PPI year - on - year growth rate to positive may be advanced under the impact of oil prices. If the oil price drops to $65 per barrel and remains stable, the PPI is likely to turn positive in the second half of Q2; if the oil price remains at about $80 per barrel or rises to $108 per barrel, the PPI may turn positive rapidly in Q2, or even in March. Based on the EIA assumption, the PPI may turn positive in March, and the central value of the PPI in 2026 will be about 1.07% [7]. - When the inflation center rises, the interest rate center does not necessarily rise, and the monetary policy does not necessarily tighten. This round of inflation recovery is mainly driven by the cost side, and the probability of monetary policy tightening is low. The cost - performance of bonds has increased, and it is difficult for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield to break through the previous high, and it may maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to moderately participate in long - term bonds during the adjustment. With the continuous loosening of the capital side, the short - end is more certain, and at the same time, pay attention to the opportunities for spread compression, such as the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and the spread between local government bonds and Treasury bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. The Impact of Base Period Rotation on CPI Is Limited, and CPI Shows a Moderate Recovery - **Base Period Rotation and Classification Adjustment**: China conducts a base period rotation for CPI and PPI every five years. On February 11, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics released CPI data based on the 2025 base period. The number of major categories and basic classifications remains unchanged, with 8 major categories and 268 basic classifications. New commodity and service classifications reflecting new consumption content have been added, and some category names have been modified. A travel service price index has been newly calculated [14]. - **Weight Changes**: Compared with the 2020 base period, the overall weight changes of each CPI classification in this base period are not significant. Structurally, the weight of services in CPI has increased, while the weight of consumer goods has decreased. In terms of classification, the weights of five major categories, including food, tobacco, alcohol and dining out, transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment, medical care, and other supplies and services, have increased. In the category of food, tobacco, alcohol and dining out, the weight of food has decreased, while the weight of dining out has increased. The weights of three major categories, including clothing, housing, and household goods and services, have decreased [16][18]. - **Impact on CPI Year - on - Year Index**: The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the average impact of this base period rotation on the monthly year - on - year index of CPI and PPI is about 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points respectively, which is relatively small. The calculation shows that the impact of CPI weight changes on the monthly CPI year - on - year index is about 0.04 percentage points, which is highly consistent with the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in terms of direction and order of magnitude, indicating that the impact of CPI weight adjustment on the CPI year - on - year trend is limited and controllable [20]. - **CPI Recovery Trend**: From January to February 2026, the average CPI year - on - year increase was 0.75%, showing a moderate recovery trend. Affected by the Spring Festival misalignment effect, consumer demand pulsed in February, pushing the CPI up from 0.2% in January to 1.3%. The core CPI also showed a significant upward trend. Overall, CPI operation is mainly dominated by historical seasonal laws. With the marginal improvement of food and energy prices and the high - level volatility of international oil prices, CPI is expected to continue the recovery trend. In 2026, the CPI center is expected to rise moderately compared with 2025, with the annual central value at about 0.8% [23]. 3.2. The Turning Point of PPI Year - on - Year Growth Rate to Positive May Be Advanced under the Impact of Oil Prices - **PPI Industry Weights**: PPI is calculated by the weighted average of 40 industry prices. Using the average operating income share of corresponding industries from 2017 to 2025 as a substitute for weights, it is found that industries such as computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing (11.1%), automobile manufacturing (7.5%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (7.2%), and chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing (6.6%) have relatively high weights. Since 2021, the weights of electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, and power and heat production and supply industries have increased significantly [27]. - **PPI Industry Contribution**: The contribution of high - weight industries to PPI is not necessarily large. The top 7 industries with high contribution rates to PPI fluctuations, including oil, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, coal mining and washing, non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, non - metallic mineral products, and oil and gas extraction, contribute about 80% of the total fluctuations [29][31]. - **Core Influencing Factors of PPI**: Crude oil, coal, ferrous metals, and non - ferrous metals are the core influencing factors of PPI. They are widely used in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industrial chains. The top 10 industries with high contribution rates to PPI fluctuations are mostly directly related to these four factors, and the relevant industries with high correlations to them contribute about 90% of the PPI fluctuations [32][36]. - **Analysis of Crude Oil Price Trends**: Affected by the continuous geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, international oil prices have continued to rise. In March 2026, oil prices experienced a roller - coaster trend of "soaring - plummeting - rebounding". Although the International Energy Agency coordinated the release of strategic petroleum reserves, the market still worried that the scale and rhythm of the release might not be able to make up for the supply gap in the Middle East, so international oil prices continued to rise [41][44]. - **Impact of Crude Oil Prices on PPI**: Crude oil is widely used in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industrial chains, and the relevant industries account for about 12.4% of PPI. A 10% increase in oil prices may push up PPI by about 0.4 percentage points. The actual impact of oil prices on China's inflation depends on the subsequent development of the conflict. Different scenarios of oil price changes have different impacts on China's PPI, and the EIA predicts that the PPI may turn positive in March, with the central value in 2026 at about 1.07% [47][50][53]. 3.3. The Impact of Inflation Center Rise on the Bond Market - **Fundamental Reasons for Interest Rate Center Rise**: According to the causes, inflation can be divided into demand - pull inflation, cost - push inflation, and structural inflation. Since the 21st century, there have been six obvious inflation processes in China. When the inflation center rises, the interest rate center does not necessarily rise, and the monetary policy does not necessarily tighten. Demand - pull inflation often drives the interest rate center up, while cost - type and structural inflation do not necessarily [58]. - **Analysis of Previous Inflation Rounds**: The first four rounds of inflation were mostly demand - pull inflation, accompanied by rising interest rates. The central bank tightened the money supply through measures such as raising the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The last two rounds of inflation were more in line with cost - push inflation, and interest rates remained flat or declined. The central bank implemented a relatively loose monetary policy to maintain economic growth [59][70]. - **Analysis of the Current Round of Inflation**: This round of inflation recovery is mainly driven by the cost side. Affected by geopolitical factors, the prices of commodities such as crude oil have risen significantly, pushing the PPI year - on - year to recover rapidly. The government work report in 2026 clearly stated to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, so the probability of monetary policy tightening is low. The cost - performance of bonds has increased, and it is difficult for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield to break through the previous high, and it may maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to moderately participate in long - term bonds during the adjustment, pay attention to the short - end with higher certainty, and also pay attention to the opportunities for spread compression [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of asphalt is currently at a relatively low level, with the开工 rate dropping to 23.0% and the inventory rate remaining at the lowest level in recent years. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the overall supply - demand situation is improving. The cost support is significant, and due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the expected reduction in refinery production has increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will be strong and volatile in the near future, following the trend of crude oil prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - Last week, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0%, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 218.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.1 million tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 4.3 million tons (1.9%) [1]. - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and most of the asphalt downstream industries'开工 rates increased. The road asphalt开工 rate increased by 1 percentage point to 9%, still lower than the level at the end of January [1]. - After the refineries in Shandong resumed production and the prices rose, the downstream's enthusiasm for stocking increased, and the national shipment volume increased by 12.67% to 17.61 million tons, but it was still at a low level [1]. - The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate was at the lowest level in recent years. The asphalt price in Shandong was stable, and the basis was at a relatively low level [1]. - China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention, and due to the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, the Middle East raw material supply will be affected. The market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [1]. - This week, Dongming Petrochemical resumed production, the asphalt开工率 increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, the terminal demand gradually recovered, the asphalt's supply - demand situation improved, the cost support was significant, and the market focused on the tense situation in the Middle East. The refinery production reduction expectation increased, and it is expected that the asphalt price will be strong and volatile in the near future, following the trend of crude oil prices [1]. 3.2期现行情 - The asphalt futures 2606 contract rose 0.11% to 4400 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 4337 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4509 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 8479 to 261472 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 4090 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract rose to - 310 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, Ningbo Keyuan and Xinjiang Fakangni stopped producing asphalt, and the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0%, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% from January to December 2025, but still in a year - on - year negative growth situation. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to February 2026 was 11.4%, a significant improvement from - 2.2% from January to December 2025 [4]. - As of the week of March 13, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and most of the asphalt downstream industries'开工 rates increased. The road asphalt开工 rate increased by 1 percentage point to 9%, still lower than the level at the end of January [4]. - As of the week of March 13, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained unchanged at 17.7% compared with the week of March 6, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate was still at the lowest level in recent years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The April contract is gradually returning to real - end trading. Pay attention to Maersk's price offer in the first week of April [1] - The main contract EC2604 is approaching delivery. It is necessary to focus on the shipping companies' willingness to support prices and actual price adjustments. The volatility of the EC2604 contract may be amplified due to geopolitical risks and the game between price - support expectations and actual landing prices [6] - For the relatively peak - season contracts in June, July, and August, the current expectations are strong. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of the year, relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and relatively high year - on - year growth in the demand side of Asia - Europe trade. However, the actual freight rates in the future are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 16, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 54,037.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 58,796.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2604 contract closed at 1938.80, EC2605 at 2175.00 points, EC2606 at 2394.40, EC2607 at 2500.60, EC2608 at 2375.00, EC2609 at 1716.80, EC2610 at 1568.00, and EC2512 at 1814.00 [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On March 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1618 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2249 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3111 US dollars/FEU. On March 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1556.49 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1109.11 points [8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 6 ships with a total of 86,000 TEU were delivered; for ships over 17,000 TEU, 1 ship with a capacity of 17,148 TEU was delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [4] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 3 weeks of March was 308,200 TEU. The capacities in weeks 12, 13, and 14 were 310,600, 282,100, and 331,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April was 326,200 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 15, 16, 17, and 18 were 331,300, 304,200, 329,000, and 340,600 TEU respectively. The average monthly capacity in May was 311,800 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 19, 20, 21, and 22 were 324,000, 313,100, 318,400, and 291,900 TEU respectively. There were 8 blank sailings in March (3 by the OA alliance, 1 by the Gemini alliance, and 4 by the MSC/PA alliance) and 1 TBN (by the OA alliance), 3 TBNs in April, and 6 TBNs in May [5] 3.4 Supply Chain - After the Israel - Iran conflict, shipping companies tried to support prices in the off - season. Maersk offered a price of 2200 - 2300 US dollars/FEU in the second week of the second half of March (equivalent to 1600 - 1700 points of SCFIS), MSC's online quote in the last week of March was 3040 US dollars/FEU (300 US dollars/FEU higher than the first week of the second half of March), and ONE's price in the second half of March was between 2435 - 2755 US dollars/FEU. Most shipping companies announced emergency fuel surcharges, but it is expected that the impact on the disk valuation is relatively controllable [6] - Some ships operating in the Middle East were transferred to the European line, increasing the supply - side pressure and potentially affecting the European line freight rates [6] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of Asia - Europe trade has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10%. After the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for the peak - season contracts. It is necessary to pay attention to whether developed countries in Europe and the United States will increase imports from China due to concerns about future inflation, which may drive up China's export demand. At the same time, it is also necessary to guard against the expectation of a global economic recession caused by excessive increases in oil prices [7] 3.6 Strategy - **Single - side**: None - **Arbitrage**: Go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "Neutral" [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bearish outlook on natural rubber. Although there are some bullish factors such as high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices, the overall situation is affected by bearish factors including weak domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to high crude oil prices. Also, natural rubber is entering a bearish season [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The overall fundamental situation of natural rubber is neutral with spot prices being strong, inventory accumulating in Qingdao, and tire operating rates at a high level. The basis is bearish, while the market trend and main positions are bullish. The overall outlook is bearish considering the current season [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on March 16 [8] 3.2.2 Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed little recently, while the inventory in Qingdao area is accumulating [14][17] 3.2.3 Import - The import volume has declined [20] 3.2.4 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have declined, while tire production has increased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [23][26][29][32] 3.3 Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish factors: high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices [6] - Bearish factors: weak domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to high crude oil prices [6] 3.4 Basis - The basis weakened on March 16 [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and policies. The production season is approaching, but there are uncertainties due to last year's drought in some areas and the transfer of plantation management rights in Indonesia. The B50 policy in Indonesia boosts consumption expectations. - The soybean oil market faces pressure from global soybean abundance and the upcoming peak of domestic soybean arrivals, but is supported by US biodiesel policies and domestic de - stocking. - The rapeseed oil market is pressured by global rapeseed abundance and the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports, and is supported by US biodiesel policies. - In the short term, the Middle East situation has pushed up crude oil prices, and the oil market has followed the increase. However, the current market performance has deviated from the fundamentals. It is not recommended to chase the rise at high prices. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel final decision and planting intention report at the end of March [82]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Malaysia**: In February, the production was 1284700 tons, a 18.55% month - on - month decrease, slightly lower than expected; exports were 1127600 tons, a 22.48% month - on - month decrease, lower than expected; inventory was 2704300 tons, a 3.94% month - on - month decrease, higher than the expected 2630000 tons. The production reduction season has ended, and production is expected to increase from March. Last year's low rainfall from May to July may affect production from March to May this year [14]. - **Indonesia**: In 2025, production was 56.906 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.144 million tons (7.85%); exports increased by 2.593 million tons (8.78%); domestic consumption increased by 3.68% to 24.738 million tons, with biodiesel consumption increasing by 1.225 million tons to 12.672 million tons; year - end inventory was 2.661 million tons, a 3.26% year - on - year increase. The government's rectification of illegal oil palm plantations may affect production. Similar to Malaysia, last year's low rainfall may also impact production [24]. - **Export Policy**: Indonesia plans to limit the export of palm oil waste and will increase the export levy on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5% from March 1, 2026 [30]. - **B50 Policy**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the POGO spread has turned negative, and the biodiesel has become profitable. There are plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, and the road test is expected to be completed by June [35]. - **Demand**: The international soybean - palm oil price difference has turned negative, which is expected to affect India's import choices in March. China's palm oil imports are expected to decline, and inventory is high, making de - stocking difficult [49]. Soybean Oil - **US**: The February USDA report made little adjustment to the supply data of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season. The 2026 soybean planting area is expected to be 85 million acres, higher than last year and slightly higher than market expectations. Attention should be paid to the quarterly inventory report and planting intention report at the end of March. The final decision on US biodiesel is expected to be announced soon, with the RVO possibly set at 540 million gallons [53][55]. - **South America**: CONAB's February report predicted that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting area would increase by 2.3% year - on - year, with a 1.5% increase in yield per unit area and a 3.8% increase in production. However, due to dry conditions in southern Brazil, some institutions have lowered the production forecast. The 2025/26 Argentine soybean production has been slightly lowered to 48 million tons [67]. - **China**: From January to February, soybean imports decreased by 7.8% year - on - year. The estimated arrivals in March, April, and May are 6.7275 million tons, 9.5 million tons, and 11 million tons respectively. There are rumors that China will purchase an additional 8 million tons of US soybeans. In the first quarter, due to a decrease in raw materials, the operating rate of oil mills declined, and soybean oil inventory has been decreasing [72]. Rapeseed Oil - **China - Canada Trade**: The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has ended, with a 5.9% tariff imposed on Canadian rapeseed, and the 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal has been cancelled, while the tariff on rapeseed oil remains [73]. - **Supply and Demand**: Global rapeseed is in a state of abundance. After the anti - dumping decision, the market judgment has shifted to the import profit - pricing logic. Attention should be paid to the purchase rhythm of Canadian rapeseed and whether the commercial purchase of Australian rapeseed will be liberalized [82].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increase in social financing (社融) in February, which amounted to 2.38 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations and showing a year-on-year increase of 146.9 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing stock remained stable at 8.2% [1][6]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In February, social financing increased by 2.38 trillion yuan, higher than the market average expectation of 1.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 146.9 billion yuan [1][6]. - The stock of social financing grew at a rate of 8.2%, unchanged from the previous month. Notably, the increase in entity credit and non-discounted bank acceptance bills was significant, while government bonds saw a year-on-year decrease [1][6]. - Entity credit rose by 850 billion yuan in February, a year-on-year increase of 197.2 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 5.75 trillion yuan for January-February, comparable to the same period in 2023-2025 [7][10]. Group 2: Demand Structure and Financing Environment - The improvement in demand was primarily observed in the corporate sector, with short-term loans increasing by 270 billion yuan and long-term loans by 350 billion yuan. This was influenced by the central bank's requirement for "balanced credit allocation" [2][10]. - The financing environment for enterprises was supported by rising industrial prices, particularly in the non-ferrous and AI sectors, which improved profit expectations and led to increased inventory and capital expenditure [2][10]. - In contrast, household financing remained weak, with short-term loans decreasing by 195.2 billion yuan and long-term loans by 66.5 billion yuan, likely due to the timing of the Spring Festival affecting consumption patterns [2][11]. Group 3: Government Bonds and Corporate Bonds - Government bonds increased by 1.4 trillion yuan in February, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 290.3 billion yuan. The supply of government bonds this year is similar to that of 2025, shifting from a supportive to a neutral impact on social financing [3][11]. - Corporate bonds saw an increase of 152.1 billion yuan in February, although this was a year-on-year decrease of 18.1 billion yuan, primarily due to reduced financing in the real estate and construction sectors [3][12]. Group 4: Monetary Aggregates - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 was 5.9%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, influenced by a low base effect and increased financing from the real sector [4][13]. - M2's year-on-year growth rate remained stable at 9.0%. An analysis of January-February data showed a decrease in household deposits and loans, while non-bank deposits increased, indicating a trend towards deleveraging and a shift towards equity assets [4][13]. Group 5: Overall Financial Data Insights - Cumulatively, social financing increased by over 310 billion yuan year-on-year for January-February, with M1 and M2 growth rates improving, indicating overall liquidity remains relatively ample [5][14]. - The strong performance of equity assets in January-February was supported by significant exports and rising industrial prices, although geopolitical factors and rising oil prices in March may alter this dynamic [5][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price is at risk of surging due to frequent news about the Middle - East situation, which greatly disturbs the crude oil price. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the progress of the Middle - East situation and the export of Middle - East crude oil [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情分析 - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the subsequent production increase plan is undetermined. This is mainly to cope with the sharp decline in Iran's crude oil exports after the attack. OPEC+ will hold the next meeting on April 5 [1] - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventory exceeded expectations, but the decline in refined oil inventory was large, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventory [1][4] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily crude oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The near - shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz for many days has led to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 6% of global supply [1] - Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei stated that Iran will not give up revenge and will continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The US energy minister said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month. Although the IEA announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow [1] 2.期现行情 - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 5.41% to 750.8 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 724.0 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 778.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3,151 to 29,591 lots [2] 3.基本面跟踪 - EIA's latest short - term energy outlook expects the Brent crude oil price to be $78.84 per barrel in 2026 (previously $57.69 per barrel) and $64.47 per barrel in 2027 (previously $53 per barrel). Affected by the Middle - East conflict, it is expected to remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months and fall to $80 per barrel in the third quarter [3] - In terms of supply and demand, EIA expects global oil production in 2026 to be 107 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 107.8 million barrels per day; and global oil demand in 2026 to be 105.2 million barrels per day, higher than the previous forecast of 104.8 million barrels per day [3] - OPEC's latest monthly report maintains its global supply, demand, and economic forecasts. It expects global oil demand to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 106.53 million barrels per day, and by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027, reaching 107.87 million barrels per day [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly reduced the global crude oil supply growth forecast for this year from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day and the crude oil demand growth forecast from 850,000 barrels per day to 640,000 barrels per day. It is expected that global oil supply will plummet by 8 million barrels per day in March [3] - On the evening of March 11, EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory for the week ending March 6 increased by 3.824 million barrels, exceeding expectations. Gasoline inventory decreased by 3.654 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.349 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 117,000 barrels [4] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's average crude oil production in February was 28.63 million barrels per day, an increase of 164,000 barrels per day compared to January, mainly due to increased production in Venezuela, Iraq, etc. US crude oil production in the week of March 6 decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.678 million barrels per day, near the historical high [4] - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.043 million barrels per day, a 4.35% increase compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly production increased by 11.44% to 9.241 million barrels per day, and diesel weekly production increased by 9.92% to 4.065 million barrels per day, driving the single - week supply of US crude oil products to increase by 6.71% month - on - month [5][7]