随着市场对美联储12月降息的预期迅速降温，风险资产的避险情绪加剧，比特币周五跌至六个多月来的最低点，投资者从比特币ETF中撤出近9亿 美元资金。 周五，比特币一度跌至94978美元，这是自5月7日以来的最低水平。这一下跌标志着比特币可能录得连续第三周下跌，其价格已从10月初的峰值下 跌近24%。与此同时，第二大加密货币以太币也下跌1.5%，报3133.76美元。 加密货币市场的抛售与其他风险资产高度相关，但因其更高的波动性而跌幅更大。富兰克林邓普顿投资解决方案副首席投资官Max Gokhman表 示： "当前的抛售与其他风险资产完全相关，但加密货币的跌幅更大，因为其波动性更高。" 他指出，在机构参与度扩大至比特币和以太坊之外之前，加密货币对宏观风险的贝塔系数将保持高位。市场流动性也大幅收紧。据Kaiko数据，市 场深度——即市场在不发生大幅价格波动的情况下吸收大额交易的能力——已较今年高点下跌约30%。 同时，因此前美国政府停摆导致关键经济数据发布延迟，交易员正质疑美联储是否能为近期降息提供理由，这一重新评估正对市场风险较高的领 域施加新的压力。 SignalPlus合伙人Augustine Fan表示： " ...

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is facing renewed selling pressure amid a historic deleveraging event in October, with a key indicator showing a decline in demand from large institutional investors, exacerbating market caution [1][4] Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fell below $107,000, with a notable drop of 4.3% to around $105,300 on Monday, despite a year-to-date increase of approximately 14% [1][4] - The MarketVector index, tracking the performance of the bottom 50 of the top 100 digital assets, has declined for three consecutive trading days, with a total drop of 8.8%, and a year-to-date decrease of about 60% [4] Institutional Demand - A concerning signal is that institutional demand for Bitcoin has fallen below the rate of new coin mining for the first time in seven months, indicating that large buyers may be retreating [3][4] - This shift suggests a potential weakening of one of the key forces that previously drove market growth [4] Market Sentiment - Market participants describe the current state as a "hangover phase" following the October liquidation event that wiped out approximately $19 billion in long positions, indicating that rebuilding the capital base will take time [4] - Investors are cautious and are unlikely to re-enter the market until a convincing price bottom is established [4] Additional Selling Pressure - The recent downturn is not solely attributed to the October market shock; some previously dormant Bitcoin wallets have been activated, contributing to selling pressure as investors take profits [5] - Analysts note that the current technical landscape shows a divided market, with Bitcoin's price declining since summer, while XRP has also shown a downward trend [5]