2025年颠覆了以往熟悉的收益格局。加密货币陷入了长时间的下跌和盘整阶段，最终沦为表现最差的资产之一。与此同时，传统 资产却意外地成为年度最大赢家。白银和黄金的收益异常出色，而美国股指也稳步保持上涨势头。这种分化暴露出一个关键的行 业问题：2025年，加密货币失去了其作为防御性资产甚至另类资产的地位，重新回到了高风险资产的行列。 贵金属、美股"争夺"资金，加密货币2025年"虎头蛇尾" 2025年，贵金属表现最为强劲，加剧了与加密货币争夺笔资金的竞争——这些资金在不确定时期寻求避险。白银价格全年上涨约 140%，黄金价格上涨约70%，均创下历史新高。这波上涨行情具有结构性：对宽松货币政策和地缘政治风险的预期，促使投资者 转向那些具有简单保值功能的资产。 在普遍的不确定性下，投资者越来越倾向于选择那些历史悠久、监管清晰且流动性高的投资工具。可及性也发挥了作用：黄金和 白银可以通过交易所交易产品(包括ETF)轻松购买，而在数字领域，与实物资产挂钩的代币化产品——RWA解决方案——则仍在发 展。这降低了部分投资者的准入门槛，并支撑了对贵金属的需求。 在供应有限的背景下，工业需求(尤其是太阳能和电动汽车的需求)进一步 ...

2025年成为加密货币对冲基金自2022年市场崩盘以来最为艰难的一年，政策与机构资金并未带来行业整体突破，反而凸显出市场结构仍存的脆弱 性。 数据显示，截至11月，方向性基金今年下跌2.5%，录得2022年以来最差表现。据Crypto Insights Group统计，主攻基本面和山寨币的策略基金跌幅 更深，回撤约23%。仅有市场中性基金通过对冲策略取得约14.4%的正收益。 10月10日的极端行情成为全年关键转折点。比特币暴跌导致近200亿美元杠杆头寸在数小时内遭集中清算。这场由特朗普关税言论引发的市场恐 慌，不仅导致大量量化策略"完全爆仓"，更暴露了加密货币交易基础设施在流动性压力、风险控制及清算机制等方面的深层缺陷。 对投资者而言，这一年凸显了即便在监管环境改善、华尔街入场的背景下，加密货币市场仍存在流动性枯竭、基础设施滞后等系统性风险。行业 内部正在重新调整策略，减少山寨币敞口，转向去中心化金融等细分领域寻找机会。 华尔街入场改变游戏规则 机构资金正通过ETF及结构化产品加速流入加密货币市场，深刻改变了行业生态与竞争格局。曾经稳定的双位数月度回报趋于消失，传统套利机 会显著收窄。 以比特币现货-期货基 ...

值得注意的是，表层交易清淡之下，机构行为正在悄然发生变化。FlowDesk数据显示，市场杠杆率处 于低位，波动率受控，资金逐步转向短久期收益工具，而长期资金成本被锁定在较低水平。这种现象表 明，当前阶段更多是资产负债表的结构性调整，而非方向性投机。 链上数据同样释放出耐人寻味的信号。Glassnode表示，在价格区间运行的环境中，数字资产财库机构 再次开始积累比特币。CWG Markets外汇认为，这类长期配置型买盘的回归，有助于限制价格下行空 间，也为后续行情提供潜在支撑。 值得注意的是，表层交易清淡之下，机构行为正在悄然发生变化。FlowDesk数据显示，市场杠杆率处 于低位，波动率受控，资金逐步转向短久期收益工具，而长期资金成本被锁定在较低水平。这种现象表 明，当前阶段更多是资产负债表的结构性调整，而非方向性投机。 12月15日，在当前亚洲早盘交易中，比特币围绕89000美元窄幅波动，市场情绪趋于冷静。结合近期美 联储降息后的表现，CWG Markets外汇认为，短期内资金更关注年末流动性管理，而非追逐单边行情， 这使得主要数字资产进入高位整理阶段。 从整体盘面看，比特币与以太坊同步回落，山寨币压力未减 ...

12月15日，在周末流动性偏低的背景下，加密市场整体承压，比特币一度回落至8.9万美元下方。 EasyMarkets易信认为，当前价格波动更多反映的是市场风险偏好阶段性降温，而非趋势性转折，投资 者在重要宏观事件前选择降低敞口，情绪趋于谨慎。 从市场结构来看，比特币短线表现弱于以太坊，而多数主流山寨币延续调整态势。EasyMarkets易信表 示，比特币市占率维持在较高水平，显示资金仍集中于相对稳健的资产，而山寨币的持续回撤，凸显市 场对风险资产的选择性明显增强。 综合来看，在关键信号明朗之前，加密市场仍可能维持区间运行，波动更多体现在结构性分化上。 EasyMarkets易信认为，对于投资者而言，当前阶段更需要关注风险管理与关键价位表现，而非盲目追 逐短期波动。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 12月15日，在周末流动性偏低的背景下，加密市场整体承压，比特币一度回落至8.9万美元下方。 EasyMarkets易信认为，当前价格波动更多反映的是市场风险偏好阶段性降温，而非趋势性转折，投资 者在重要宏观事件前选择降低敞口，情绪趋于谨慎。 从市场结构来看，比特币短线表现弱于以太坊，而多数主 ...

Fed interest rate cut of 25 bps fail to move crypto market. Source: Key Takeaways The Fed’s 25 bps rate cut on Dec. 10 failed to lift the crypto market. Instead, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major altcoins plunged within hours of the announcement. Hawkish messaging from Fed Chair Jerome Powell overshadowed the rate cut and fueled risk-off sentiment. The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut on Tuesday, lowering the federal funds target to 3.50%–3.75%. It was the cen ...

Group 1 - The market experienced low trading volume due to the US holiday, but the current minor rebound structure has not ended, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite as reflected by the increasing market share of altcoins and decreasing stablecoin market cap [1] - The total market liquidation in the past 24 hours reached $136 million, with long positions accounting for approximately $93.69 million and short positions for about $42.77 million, indicating significant market volatility [2][3] - Bitcoin's price has recently stabilized above the middle Bollinger Band, but the bullish momentum remains insufficient, suggesting a technical rebound rather than a strong upward trend [3][4] Group 2 - Ethereum's short-term rebound lacks momentum, with the daily MACD indicating a potential downward trend if it fails to break through the key resistance level of $3065-$3100 [7] - Altcoins have shown a notable rebound, with examples like $ONDO, $AAVE, and $CRV experiencing consistent daily gains, which is seen as a healthy market condition [10] - The market is currently overlooking altcoins, providing an opportunity for traders, but caution is advised as significant price increases in altcoins may signal an exit point [12]

26 星期三 2025年11月 信息来源：网络 编辑-楓華 感恩节前的市场，像一幅流动的画卷，色彩斑斓又充满变数。美联储的鸽派信号、人工智能的热潮，以 及加密货币的无厘头波动，共同编织了一场复杂的金融交响。全球投资市场里的新老韭菜们既兴奋又忐 忑，仿佛置身于一个不断切换光影的舞台。 市场苦等的那只鸽子 当纽约联储主席和理事先后释放鸽派信号时，市场的情绪瞬间发生转向。从谨慎观望到试探入场，投资 者的心态如同秋风掠过水面，轻轻搅动起涟漪。纳斯达克和标普反弹，风险资产短暂获得喘息，但背后 的故事，比数字更耐人寻味： 在经济和政策的交汇点，每一次表态都像是一面风向标，让人重新思考风险与机会的边界。 大空头再发警世恒言 人工智能板块这两天的反弹引人注目，但市场的热情里，也潜伏着焦虑。迈克尔·伯里，这位准确预测 2008年金融危机的大空头，再次提醒市场：历史总喜欢重演。二十年前的互联网泡沫与今天的AI狂 潮，有着惊人的相似——投资者往往被成长的想象力所吸引，而忽略了盈利的现实。 伯里的提醒不仅是警告，也像是一面镜子，映照出投资者在泡沫与现实之间徘徊的心理。正如政策制定 者公开保证市场安全，但经验告诉我们，过度自信往往孕育 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping to $93,005 and Ethereum falling to $3,004, indicating a broader market correction driven by a reset in risk appetite rather than panic [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The recent decline is characterized as a "risk preference reset," where funds are moving from high-volatility assets to core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, reflecting a structural de-risking process [2][3]. - The downturn is not attributed to a single event but rather a combination of factors, including prolonged high prices leading to fatigue among bulls and slight tightening of macro liquidity [3][4]. Bitcoin Analysis - Bitcoin's price struggles are linked to its inability to break through the $98,000–$100,000 range, leading to a shift in market sentiment from "new highs" to potential deep corrections [3][4]. - The accumulation of perpetual contract positions has led to increased leverage risks, resulting in rapid liquidation of long positions during the downturn [4]. Ethereum Resilience - Ethereum has shown more resilience compared to Bitcoin, with a smaller decline and stronger support levels, driven by structural demand rather than speculative buying [5]. - The Ethereum ecosystem's value capture ability is increasing, supported by various narratives such as L2, DeFi, and real-world asset integration, leading to sustained on-chain activity [5][6]. Altcoin Market Behavior - Altcoins have experienced significant declines, with many tokens dropping 8%–10%, reflecting a typical outcome of reshaped risk preferences [6][7]. - Despite the downturn in altcoins, the overall market structure remains healthy, indicating a "healthy turnover" as funds shift from riskier assets to more stable ones [7]. On-Chain Data Insights - On-chain data shows a continuous increase in long-term holdings of core assets, suggesting that long-term funds are still accumulating [7][8]. - The liquidity in stablecoin pools remains stable, indicating no signs of panic or significant withdrawals [7][8].

智通财经APP获悉，加密货币市场抛售潮毫无缓和迹象，市值最小、风险最高的代币正首当其冲。追踪 100种数字资产中50种最小市值币种的MarketVector数字资产100小盘指数，于上周日跌至2020年以来的 最低水平。 这一低点出现之际，最大加密货币比特币抹去了今年以来30%的涨幅，而就在几周前，它才刚刚创下历 史新高。被视为高风险投机情绪晴雨表的"山寨币"，在2025年的表现远远落后于其他市值更大的币种。 在以往的加密货币牛市中，受益于交易员对高风险、高回报押注的追捧，小盘代币指数往往跑赢大盘代 币指数。但去年美国批准比特币和以太币交易所交易产品(ETP)后，这一趋势发生逆转，这类产品成为 机构资金流的焦点。 过去五年间，加密货币小盘指数下跌近8%，而大盘指数飙升约380%，凸显出该板块已大幅失宠。 澳大利亚对冲基金Apollo Crypto的投资组合经理普拉蒂克·卡拉表示，散户交易员正从以往的市场周期 中吸取教训。"潮水涨起并非所有船只都能扬帆——只有优质资产才能受益，"他补充道。 整个加密货币市场仍未从10月10日的崩盘事件中恢复。该事件引发了约190亿美元的清算，所有代币的 总市值蒸发超过1万亿美元 ...

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has erased nearly all of its market value gains for the year within just over a month, with a total market cap peaking at nearly $4.4 trillion on October 6, followed by a 20% decline, leaving an annual increase of only 2.5% [1] - The market downturn was triggered by the liquidation of approximately $19 billion in leveraged positions shortly after reaching historical highs, which shattered market confidence [1] - Despite increased acceptance of digital assets by regulators, global banks, and institutional investors, the current performance of the market is unexpected [1] Group 1 - Bitcoin has experienced an 8% decline this week, marking its worst weekly performance since March, and has fallen below the critical 200-day moving average, trading at approximately $100,500 [1] - Altcoins, which are smaller and more volatile tokens, have seen the most significant declines this year, lagging behind in performance [1] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency market, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has been largely weak in recent months, with minimal new capital inflow into altcoins or decentralized finance (DeFi) projects [2] - Concerns over the overvaluation of AI stocks have contributed to the recent downturn in digital assets, with warnings that if tech stocks face a sell-off, Bitcoin could drop below the $100,000 mark, and altcoins may experience even larger declines [2] - Despite the overall market gloom, there are signs of stabilization, as U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw an inflow of $253 million after six consecutive days of net outflows [2]