Core Viewpoint - The evolution of currency forms is driven by both private and state influences, with current trends indicating a shift from a dollar-dominated international monetary system towards a multipolar framework, emphasizing the importance of real economic competitiveness and technological innovation over mere capital account openness [2][3][19]. Group 1: Evolution of Currency Forms - Currency can be understood through two dimensions: commodity money vs. credit money, and private money vs. state money [4][5]. - The historical transition from commodity money to credit money reflects the need for efficient payment systems, with modern banking systems evolving into public-private partnerships supported by government credit [4][6]. - Recent developments in digital currencies highlight the competition between state-backed central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and private cryptocurrencies, with the latter often seen as extensions of existing monetary systems [5][6][8]. Group 2: Trends in International Monetary System - The international monetary system has been significantly influenced by globalization and financialization, but recent geopolitical tensions and financial crises have accelerated trends of de-globalization and de-financialization [3][19][21]. - The shift towards bilateral and limited multilateral trade cooperation indicates a decline in the relative importance of financial assets compared to real assets, which may have profound implications for the international monetary system and the internationalization of the renminbi [19][20][24]. Group 3: Digital Currency Dynamics - Platform currencies, such as WeChat Pay and Alipay, leverage network effects to gain systemic importance, disrupting traditional banking models and creating new payment channels [9][10]. - Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can either serve as cash substitutes or as interest-bearing assets, with their impact on the financial system largely dependent on whether they pay interest [11][14]. - Stablecoins, which are pegged to high liquidity assets like the US dollar, operate similarly to narrow banking models, emphasizing the need for high-quality reserves to maintain stability [15][18]. Group 4: US Cryptocurrency Strategy - The US faces challenges in maintaining the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency amid rising concerns over its long-term creditworthiness [34][36]. - The US government's strategy to utilize stablecoins as a means to reinforce dollarization reflects an attempt to monetize fiscal deficits while expanding the demand for US Treasury securities [35][40]. - However, the effectiveness of this strategy may be hindered by competition from other currencies and the inherent vulnerabilities of stablecoins, which are subject to market dynamics and regulatory scrutiny [42][43]. Group 5: Future of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system is likely to evolve towards a multipolar structure, with the renminbi's internationalization being driven by real economic strength and technological advancements rather than solely by capital account liberalization [2][19][52]. - The geopolitical landscape and economic policies will play crucial roles in shaping the future dynamics of global currency competition and cooperation [24][52].