2026年1月1日9点整，i茅台平台准时开闸，1499元/瓶的53度飞天茅台正式面向全国消费者直销。消息一出，全网沸腾——然而不到半分钟，首批配额"秒 罄"，页面卡顿、刷新无果，无数普通用户再次沦为"陪跑者"。这场被官方誉为"打击黄牛、回归消费本质"的改革首秀，一面重创囤货炒家，一面却因抢购 机制不透明再陷公平性质疑。 此次政策堪称雷霆手段：每人每日限购12瓶（两箱），分批每5分钟一轮投放，价格直击市场底价。相较此前2600元以上的零售均价，千元价差瞬间蒸发， 黄牛利润从百元骤缩至几十元。更致命的是，高频补货机制让囤货行为风险剧增——2025年末已有烟酒店主因高价囤货单批亏损超30万元，部分回收商直接 暂停业务，"炒茅"神话正加速崩塌。 然而，消费者并未完全迎来春天。尽管有幸运儿晒出成功下单截图高呼"圆梦"，但更多人抱怨"技术黄牛"仍用脚本抢购，普通用户连页面都打不开。舆论尖 锐指出：所谓"动态投放"实为变相饥饿营销，实名制与防刷系统形同虚设，"平价茅台"依旧可望不可即。 更深层的矛盾在于需求结构变化。官方寄望1499元定价激活年轻群体，但数据显示35岁以下常饮白酒者不足一成（注：该数据存疑，样本代表性有限） ...

暴跌后急速反弹 破位下跌：12月12日，飞天茅台散瓶/原箱批发价首次跌破1499元官方指导价（最低报1485元/瓶），创 历史新低，部分电商拼团价低至1399元/瓶。 来源：热点解码局 茅台酒价在12月13日上演戏剧性反转，飞天茅台单日内连续调价四次，从跌破官方指导价的1490元/瓶 飙升至1580元/瓶，这一罕见波动源于茅台紧急出台的"短期控量+长期改革"组合拳，同时折射出高端白 酒市场的深层矛盾。 日内四连跳：13日早间跳涨20元至1510元/瓶，午间两度调升至1530元/瓶，傍晚冲至1580元/瓶，单日涨 幅超6%。二级市场上，贵州茅台股价同步三连阳，形成"股酒联动"效应。 一、价格异动关键事实 非标产品大减量：2026年将削减生肖酒50%配额、彩釉珍品停供、1升装飞天和茅台15年各减30%，聚 焦飞天茅台（1500元+）、精品茅台（2000元+）、茅台1935（600元+）三大单品。 解决渠道痛点：此前经销商需捆绑采购滞销非标产品（如生肖酒价格倒挂），综合成本高达1600-1800 元/瓶。削减配额从源头降低渠道亏损压力，稳定飞天茅台利润空间。 三、争议焦点：反弹能否持续？ 利好派观点 政策精准减供叠 ...

谈及多家银行密集入驻小红书的举措，苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟表示，根本动因在于精准触达并培育 庞大的年轻潜在客群，小红书平台以高活跃度的年轻用户为主体，是实现银行品牌年轻化与未来业务增 长的关键阵地。相较于手机银行App等传统线上服务渠道，小红书的核心价值在于其独特的"社区信任 生态"与"生活方式切入"属性。它允许银行突破传统金融服务的刻板形象，通过理财知识科普、消费场 景融合及生活方式分享等非功利性内容，在无形中与用户建立情感连接与品牌信任。这种基于价值共鸣 当潮牌杯抽奖、文旅攻略与理财干货在小红书信息流中同框，银行业的营销逻辑正经历一场深刻变革。 告别过往"拼利率、比网点"的传统赛道，在月活用户超3亿的小红书生态中，银行正卸下"高冷"标签， 从浙商银行、建设银行（亚洲）、大华银行等机构的密集入驻，到招商银行以旅游笔记拉近生活距离， 再到江苏银行借势苏超联赛打造互动话题……银行的营销内容不再聚焦于产品卖点灌输，而是以幸福指 南、消费攻略、艺术互动等生活场景为切口，实现从"流量聚集"到"客户沉淀"的软转化。但机遇背后亦 藏挑战，如何在合规红线内平衡内容趣味性与专业性，如何走出差异化营销路径，依旧是待解的题。 多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of currency forms is driven by both private and state influences, with current trends indicating a shift from a dollar-dominated international monetary system towards a multipolar framework, emphasizing the importance of real economic competitiveness and technological innovation over mere capital account openness [2][3][19]. Group 1: Evolution of Currency Forms - Currency can be understood through two dimensions: commodity money vs. credit money, and private money vs. state money [4][5]. - The historical transition from commodity money to credit money reflects the need for efficient payment systems, with modern banking systems evolving into public-private partnerships supported by government credit [4][6]. - Recent developments in digital currencies highlight the competition between state-backed central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and private cryptocurrencies, with the latter often seen as extensions of existing monetary systems [5][6][8]. Group 2: Trends in International Monetary System - The international monetary system has been significantly influenced by globalization and financialization, but recent geopolitical tensions and financial crises have accelerated trends of de-globalization and de-financialization [3][19][21]. - The shift towards bilateral and limited multilateral trade cooperation indicates a decline in the relative importance of financial assets compared to real assets, which may have profound implications for the international monetary system and the internationalization of the renminbi [19][20][24]. Group 3: Digital Currency Dynamics - Platform currencies, such as WeChat Pay and Alipay, leverage network effects to gain systemic importance, disrupting traditional banking models and creating new payment channels [9][10]. - Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can either serve as cash substitutes or as interest-bearing assets, with their impact on the financial system largely dependent on whether they pay interest [11][14]. - Stablecoins, which are pegged to high liquidity assets like the US dollar, operate similarly to narrow banking models, emphasizing the need for high-quality reserves to maintain stability [15][18]. Group 4: US Cryptocurrency Strategy - The US faces challenges in maintaining the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency amid rising concerns over its long-term creditworthiness [34][36]. - The US government's strategy to utilize stablecoins as a means to reinforce dollarization reflects an attempt to monetize fiscal deficits while expanding the demand for US Treasury securities [35][40]. - However, the effectiveness of this strategy may be hindered by competition from other currencies and the inherent vulnerabilities of stablecoins, which are subject to market dynamics and regulatory scrutiny [42][43]. Group 5: Future of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system is likely to evolve towards a multipolar structure, with the renminbi's internationalization being driven by real economic strength and technological advancements rather than solely by capital account liberalization [2][19][52]. - The geopolitical landscape and economic policies will play crucial roles in shaping the future dynamics of global currency competition and cooperation [24][52].

Group 1 - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with 68 out of 70 major cities reporting a month-on-month decline in housing prices, averaging a drop of 7.32% [3][5] - The number of second-hand homes for sale has reached a record high of 7.5 million, indicating a severe imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a stagnant market where sellers are unable to find buyers [5][12] - The disparity between first-tier cities and lower-tier cities is widening, with some areas seeing price drops of 30-40% compared to their peak in 2022, while third and fourth-tier cities are experiencing even steeper declines [5][7] Group 2 - The current housing market is characterized by a significant inventory of unsold properties, with a total inventory of 760 million square meters, reflecting a mismatch between supply and buyer interest [12] - Young people's willingness to purchase homes is declining, with only 48% of individuals aged 25-30 expressing interest in buying, down from 65% five years ago, indicating a shift in perception regarding homeownership [12][14] - Economic factors are reshaping the real estate landscape, with the sector transitioning from being a cornerstone of the economy to a less central role as resources shift towards new industries like renewable energy and AI [16][18] Group 3 - Future housing price trends could follow three potential paths: continued decline, stabilization due to policy interventions, or a slowdown in the rate of decline with further market differentiation [20][22] - If structural issues remain unresolved, predictions suggest that first-tier cities could see an additional 10-15% drop in prices, while third and fourth-tier cities might experience declines of 20-30% [20][22] - The market is expected to evolve, with some cities stabilizing while others continue to decline, marking a departure from the previous "one-size-fits-all" approach to real estate [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Mid-term Investment Strategy Conference held by CICC focused on the theme of "Resilience and Reconstruction," discussing key topics such as the outlook for the Chinese economy, global asset trends, and advancements in AI and high-end manufacturing [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Economics - CICC's Chief Economist, Peng Wensheng, highlighted the shift towards geopolitical economics, emphasizing that the past 40 years of globalization and financialization are being reevaluated due to rising inequality and recent economic challenges in the U.S. [6][7]. - The macro impacts of geopolitical competition include increased supply constraints due to de-globalization, protectionism, and fragmented global supply chains, which harm economic efficiency [6]. - The importance of real assets is rising, driven by fiscal expansion and the need for de-financialization, with China holding unique advantages in green industries and AI [6]. Group 2: Monetary Order Reconstruction - Chief Strategy Analyst, Miao Yanliang, noted that the global monetary order is rapidly diversifying and fragmenting, which may reduce the impact of high U.S. Treasury yields on RMB assets [10]. - The anticipated influx of capital into Hong Kong stocks is supported by China's resilient fundamentals, trends in AI, low valuations, and under-allocation by foreign investors [10]. Group 3: Economic Recovery and Market Outlook - Chief Macro Analyst, Zhang Wenlang, observed a divergence in GDP growth and weak prices, attributing this to demand gaps and structural improvements in the economy [13]. - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a continuation of "quasi-balance" growth, with potential structural highlights as the real estate sector's drag on the economy diminishes [13]. Group 4: U.S. Economic Rebalancing - U.S. Macro Chief Economist, Liu Zhengning, discussed the implications of U.S. tariff policies, indicating a shift from balanced to functional fiscal policies to stabilize the economy [16]. - The short-term effects of tariffs may lead to stagflation, with a potential for growth slowdown and temporary inflation increases in the U.S. economy [16]. Group 5: A-Share Market Resilience - Domestic Strategy Chief Analyst, Li Qiusuo, expressed confidence in the resilience of the A-share market, predicting a "steady then rising" trend in the second half of 2025, contingent on effective macro policies [17][21]. - Investment strategies should focus on certainty in uncertain environments, emphasizing opportunities in capacity cycles, high-growth sectors, and dividend-paying stocks [21]. Group 6: Global Market Trends - Overseas Strategy Chief Analyst, Liu Gang, noted a growing global consensus on "de-dollarization," although the extent may not meet expectations [22]. - The outlook for Hong Kong stocks suggests a structural market with potential for gains in sectors like technology and new consumption, despite overall index volatility [22]. Group 7: Digital Financial Services - CICC is enhancing its digital service capabilities through the "CICC Insight" platform, which provides comprehensive research and investment information to institutional investors [23]. - The company aims to leverage financial technology to improve service efficiency and support clients' investment decisions [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 2000 yuan per bottle, marking a significant shift in the market and raising questions about whether this is a bubble burst or a return to rationality [1][10]. Price Movement - On June 12, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai fell to 1980 yuan per bottle, officially breaking the 2000 yuan psychological barrier, with a single-day drop of 30 yuan [1]. - The price has decreased over 20% in just one year, compared to 2485 yuan in the same period last year and 2820 yuan the year before [1]. - E-commerce platforms have accelerated this price decline, with prices on platforms like Pinduoduo dropping to as low as 1880 yuan per bottle [1][6]. Market Sentiment - There is a palpable sense of panic in the market, with some retailers halting the buyback of Feitian Moutai due to unstable prices [7]. - Retailers report significant price drops, with some offering buyback prices as low as 1850 yuan [8]. - The uncertainty surrounding future prices has led to a cautious approach among retailers, with some fearing further declines [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - A key signal prior to the price drop was the announcement of a 100% lottery purchase program at the Zunyi Moutai Airport, aimed at testing real demand [9]. - However, this initiative was abruptly canceled, highlighting the challenges Moutai faces in balancing price stability and inventory reduction [9]. Investor Perspectives - Investors are divided on the implications of the price crisis, with some viewing it as a necessary "de-financialization" process, while others see it as a consequence of aggressive channel reforms [10]. - Some investors believe that the current market conditions present a buying opportunity, despite the ongoing price declines [10][11]. - The stock price of Guizhou Moutai has also been affected, dropping below 1460 yuan, with a nearly 10% decline over the past month [10]. Capital Market Reactions - Despite the negative sentiment, there is a notable split in capital flows, with some funds continuing to invest in the white liquor sector, indicating a potential for recovery [11]. - The future direction of Moutai will depend on whether it opts for strict price controls or embraces a market-driven value reassessment [11].

A厂老板最欣赏拼多多和美团，原因在哪里？ 上海有三家互联网公司在圈里因为卷而非常出名，A是其中一家。 在B厂上班，与公司两不相欠 B也是一家上海公司，一位从B厂离职的员工，把在B厂上班的感受说成两不相欠。 怎么解释呢？B厂每天会通过打卡记录工时，严格卡8小时，一分钟都不能少，这在互联网公司多少有些例 外。 有B厂员工解释，只要少一分钟工时，第二天就会收到警告，你的 leader 也会受到警告。 对周末上班，则要分类来看，一般来看，如果 leader 同意，可能就会给2倍工资。但技术是个例外，加班 比较多，对加班费划分得更加详细。 具体而言，技术团队把加班区分为冲刺、提效和加班三个不同等级。提效的工资系数在 0.8 ~ 1.2 ，冲刺 是1.5，加班则是两倍工资，算得非常细。 此外，B厂有加班餐，餐标大概30块钱，7点钟左右就能去拿到加班餐，但是吃完饭以后必须要待到 8 点。呆不到 8 点刷卡走，第二天就会收到扣费提醒。 卷到极致的C厂，竟然不怎么做淘汰 都说C是一个非常卷的公司，但我们最近听到一些不一样的声音。 据说A的老板非常欣赏拼多多，原因是他觉得拼多多是一家管理上非常成功的公司。一位A厂员工说，这种 赚 ...