历史上货币形式的演变可从商品货币与信用货币、私人货币与国家货币两个维度理解。货币形式创新的动力可能来自私人部门，而当私人部门创新发展到 具有系统性重要性时，则需政府监管来管理风险和负外部性，当前基于数字技术的货币竞争也可参照这一逻辑。过去40余年的美元国际货币体系两大基础 是全球化和金融化，但全球金融危机后，金融监管加强，贸易摩擦增加，近年来在新的地缘形势下，全球经济的逆全球化和去金融化趋势加剧，推动国际 货币体系演变。当前，应对国际上的"去美元化"趋势，美国采取的加密货币战略可看作金融与财政手段的结合，将其作为应对财政赤字和美元地位下滑的 货币化延伸渠道，但在实施过程中或面临阻力。未来国际货币体系或将从美元主导向多极化方向演变，促进人民币国际化或不必一切以资本账户开放为着 力点，应更重视实体经济的竞争力和科技创新，以贸易和实体投资的伙伴关系为抓手促进中国与其他国家在支付和金融领域的合作。相应地，平台货币的 经济属性较强、金融属性较弱，更能发挥中国在制造业和产成品贸易的规模优势。央行数字货币作为一个外生力量，有利于应对在位国际货币在市场竞争 中的内生优势，如通过多边央行数字货币合作建立跨境支付基础设施。 正文 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with 68 out of 70 major cities reporting a month-on-month decline in housing prices, averaging a drop of 7.32% [3][5] - The number of second-hand homes for sale has reached a record high of 7.5 million, indicating a severe imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a stagnant market where sellers are unable to find buyers [5][12] - The disparity between first-tier cities and lower-tier cities is widening, with some areas seeing price drops of 30-40% compared to their peak in 2022, while third and fourth-tier cities are experiencing even steeper declines [5][7] Group 2 - The current housing market is characterized by a significant inventory of unsold properties, with a total inventory of 760 million square meters, reflecting a mismatch between supply and buyer interest [12] - Young people's willingness to purchase homes is declining, with only 48% of individuals aged 25-30 expressing interest in buying, down from 65% five years ago, indicating a shift in perception regarding homeownership [12][14] - Economic factors are reshaping the real estate landscape, with the sector transitioning from being a cornerstone of the economy to a less central role as resources shift towards new industries like renewable energy and AI [16][18] Group 3 - Future housing price trends could follow three potential paths: continued decline, stabilization due to policy interventions, or a slowdown in the rate of decline with further market differentiation [20][22] - If structural issues remain unresolved, predictions suggest that first-tier cities could see an additional 10-15% drop in prices, while third and fourth-tier cities might experience declines of 20-30% [20][22] - The market is expected to evolve, with some cities stabilizing while others continue to decline, marking a departure from the previous "one-size-fits-all" approach to real estate [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Mid-term Investment Strategy Conference held by CICC focused on the theme of "Resilience and Reconstruction," discussing key topics such as the outlook for the Chinese economy, global asset trends, and advancements in AI and high-end manufacturing [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Economics - CICC's Chief Economist, Peng Wensheng, highlighted the shift towards geopolitical economics, emphasizing that the past 40 years of globalization and financialization are being reevaluated due to rising inequality and recent economic challenges in the U.S. [6][7]. - The macro impacts of geopolitical competition include increased supply constraints due to de-globalization, protectionism, and fragmented global supply chains, which harm economic efficiency [6]. - The importance of real assets is rising, driven by fiscal expansion and the need for de-financialization, with China holding unique advantages in green industries and AI [6]. Group 2: Monetary Order Reconstruction - Chief Strategy Analyst, Miao Yanliang, noted that the global monetary order is rapidly diversifying and fragmenting, which may reduce the impact of high U.S. Treasury yields on RMB assets [10]. - The anticipated influx of capital into Hong Kong stocks is supported by China's resilient fundamentals, trends in AI, low valuations, and under-allocation by foreign investors [10]. Group 3: Economic Recovery and Market Outlook - Chief Macro Analyst, Zhang Wenlang, observed a divergence in GDP growth and weak prices, attributing this to demand gaps and structural improvements in the economy [13]. - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a continuation of "quasi-balance" growth, with potential structural highlights as the real estate sector's drag on the economy diminishes [13]. Group 4: U.S. Economic Rebalancing - U.S. Macro Chief Economist, Liu Zhengning, discussed the implications of U.S. tariff policies, indicating a shift from balanced to functional fiscal policies to stabilize the economy [16]. - The short-term effects of tariffs may lead to stagflation, with a potential for growth slowdown and temporary inflation increases in the U.S. economy [16]. Group 5: A-Share Market Resilience - Domestic Strategy Chief Analyst, Li Qiusuo, expressed confidence in the resilience of the A-share market, predicting a "steady then rising" trend in the second half of 2025, contingent on effective macro policies [17][21]. - Investment strategies should focus on certainty in uncertain environments, emphasizing opportunities in capacity cycles, high-growth sectors, and dividend-paying stocks [21]. Group 6: Global Market Trends - Overseas Strategy Chief Analyst, Liu Gang, noted a growing global consensus on "de-dollarization," although the extent may not meet expectations [22]. - The outlook for Hong Kong stocks suggests a structural market with potential for gains in sectors like technology and new consumption, despite overall index volatility [22]. Group 7: Digital Financial Services - CICC is enhancing its digital service capabilities through the "CICC Insight" platform, which provides comprehensive research and investment information to institutional investors [23]. - The company aims to leverage financial technology to improve service efficiency and support clients' investment decisions [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 2000 yuan per bottle, marking a significant shift in the market and raising questions about whether this is a bubble burst or a return to rationality [1][10]. Price Movement - On June 12, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai fell to 1980 yuan per bottle, officially breaking the 2000 yuan psychological barrier, with a single-day drop of 30 yuan [1]. - The price has decreased over 20% in just one year, compared to 2485 yuan in the same period last year and 2820 yuan the year before [1]. - E-commerce platforms have accelerated this price decline, with prices on platforms like Pinduoduo dropping to as low as 1880 yuan per bottle [1][6]. Market Sentiment - There is a palpable sense of panic in the market, with some retailers halting the buyback of Feitian Moutai due to unstable prices [7]. - Retailers report significant price drops, with some offering buyback prices as low as 1850 yuan [8]. - The uncertainty surrounding future prices has led to a cautious approach among retailers, with some fearing further declines [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - A key signal prior to the price drop was the announcement of a 100% lottery purchase program at the Zunyi Moutai Airport, aimed at testing real demand [9]. - However, this initiative was abruptly canceled, highlighting the challenges Moutai faces in balancing price stability and inventory reduction [9]. Investor Perspectives - Investors are divided on the implications of the price crisis, with some viewing it as a necessary "de-financialization" process, while others see it as a consequence of aggressive channel reforms [10]. - Some investors believe that the current market conditions present a buying opportunity, despite the ongoing price declines [10][11]. - The stock price of Guizhou Moutai has also been affected, dropping below 1460 yuan, with a nearly 10% decline over the past month [10]. Capital Market Reactions - Despite the negative sentiment, there is a notable split in capital flows, with some funds continuing to invest in the white liquor sector, indicating a potential for recovery [11]. - The future direction of Moutai will depend on whether it opts for strict price controls or embraces a market-driven value reassessment [11].

A厂老板最欣赏拼多多和美团，原因在哪里？ 上海有三家互联网公司在圈里因为卷而非常出名，A是其中一家。 在B厂上班，与公司两不相欠 B也是一家上海公司，一位从B厂离职的员工，把在B厂上班的感受说成两不相欠。 怎么解释呢？B厂每天会通过打卡记录工时，严格卡8小时，一分钟都不能少，这在互联网公司多少有些例 外。 有B厂员工解释，只要少一分钟工时，第二天就会收到警告，你的 leader 也会受到警告。 对周末上班，则要分类来看，一般来看，如果 leader 同意，可能就会给2倍工资。但技术是个例外，加班 比较多，对加班费划分得更加详细。 具体而言，技术团队把加班区分为冲刺、提效和加班三个不同等级。提效的工资系数在 0.8 ~ 1.2 ，冲刺 是1.5，加班则是两倍工资，算得非常细。 此外，B厂有加班餐，餐标大概30块钱，7点钟左右就能去拿到加班餐，但是吃完饭以后必须要待到 8 点。呆不到 8 点刷卡走，第二天就会收到扣费提醒。 卷到极致的C厂，竟然不怎么做淘汰 都说C是一个非常卷的公司，但我们最近听到一些不一样的声音。 据说A的老板非常欣赏拼多多，原因是他觉得拼多多是一家管理上非常成功的公司。一位A厂员工说，这种 赚 ...