Core Viewpoint - The significant fluctuations in spot gold prices this week reflect heightened market sentiment, with prices reaching a new high since October 21 before retreating due to profit-taking, ultimately closing at $4171.2 per ounce, a daily decline of 0.58% [1] Short-term Catalysts - Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to a 42-day U.S. government shutdown, delays in key economic data, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and international trade relations have driven funds into gold [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen to over 65%, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index below 99.5, which reduces the holding cost of gold [3] - Technical support for gold prices was established after stabilizing above $4180, triggering systematic buying strategies and attracting further bullish investments after breaking the $4200 resistance [3] Long-term Structural Factors - Central banks globally have net purchased 902 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for about 30% of annual gold production, with China increasing its reserves for 12 consecutive months, totaling 7.409 million ounces [4] - The share of the U.S. dollar in global reserves has decreased to 55%, with some views suggesting that gold is gradually becoming an alternative asset to replace part of sovereign credit [4] - The function of gold is evolving from a traditional inflation hedge to a strategic allocation against sovereign credit risk, indicating a structural shift in institutional investment logic [5] Trend Outlook - The support logic for gold prices remains solid in the medium to long term, as the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is not yet over, and the U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, alongside a diversification process in the global reserve system, enhancing gold's role as a credit hedge in asset portfolios [6] - Some institutions predict that gold prices could reach the range of $7000 to $8000 by 2030, while acknowledging that increased volatility during high price periods has become the new norm, with market sentiment driving significant price fluctuations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of currency forms is driven by both private and state influences, with current trends indicating a shift from a dollar-dominated international monetary system towards a multipolar framework, emphasizing the importance of real economic competitiveness and technological innovation over mere capital account openness [2][3][19]. Group 1: Evolution of Currency Forms - Currency can be understood through two dimensions: commodity money vs. credit money, and private money vs. state money [4][5]. - The historical transition from commodity money to credit money reflects the need for efficient payment systems, with modern banking systems evolving into public-private partnerships supported by government credit [4][6]. - Recent developments in digital currencies highlight the competition between state-backed central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and private cryptocurrencies, with the latter often seen as extensions of existing monetary systems [5][6][8]. Group 2: Trends in International Monetary System - The international monetary system has been significantly influenced by globalization and financialization, but recent geopolitical tensions and financial crises have accelerated trends of de-globalization and de-financialization [3][19][21]. - The shift towards bilateral and limited multilateral trade cooperation indicates a decline in the relative importance of financial assets compared to real assets, which may have profound implications for the international monetary system and the internationalization of the renminbi [19][20][24]. Group 3: Digital Currency Dynamics - Platform currencies, such as WeChat Pay and Alipay, leverage network effects to gain systemic importance, disrupting traditional banking models and creating new payment channels [9][10]. - Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can either serve as cash substitutes or as interest-bearing assets, with their impact on the financial system largely dependent on whether they pay interest [11][14]. - Stablecoins, which are pegged to high liquidity assets like the US dollar, operate similarly to narrow banking models, emphasizing the need for high-quality reserves to maintain stability [15][18]. Group 4: US Cryptocurrency Strategy - The US faces challenges in maintaining the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency amid rising concerns over its long-term creditworthiness [34][36]. - The US government's strategy to utilize stablecoins as a means to reinforce dollarization reflects an attempt to monetize fiscal deficits while expanding the demand for US Treasury securities [35][40]. - However, the effectiveness of this strategy may be hindered by competition from other currencies and the inherent vulnerabilities of stablecoins, which are subject to market dynamics and regulatory scrutiny [42][43]. Group 5: Future of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system is likely to evolve towards a multipolar structure, with the renminbi's internationalization being driven by real economic strength and technological advancements rather than solely by capital account liberalization [2][19][52]. - The geopolitical landscape and economic policies will play crucial roles in shaping the future dynamics of global currency competition and cooperation [24][52].