施康教授是宏观金融领域具有重要国际影响力的资深学者，此前在香港中文大学担任教授职务。他长期 深耕开放经济宏观经济学，其开创性研究紧密围绕全球资本流动失衡、国际货币体系演变、中国高水平 对外开放等国家亟需破解的重大理论与现实命题。他在经常项目理论方面提出的新框架，为理解全球与 中国经济结构性难题提供了重要参考；他对美元主导范式的研究，为应对外部金融风险、维护经济安全 提供了前瞻视角。施康教授学术成果丰硕，多篇论文发表于Journal of Monetary Economics，Journal of International Economics等国际知名学术期刊，并担任《中国经济评论》联合主编。其成果荣获浦山学术 研究奖、孙冶方金融创新奖等学术奖项，体现了以理论探索回应现实需求的学术价值。 施康教授的卓越贡献，不仅体现在理论前沿的突破，更在于其深厚的政策转化与实践影响力。他曾兼任 香港金融管理局香港货币研究所客座研究员、中国人民银行研究局访问学者，多次深度参与中国人民银 行、中财办、国务院政研室等部门的重要课题与政策咨询，研究成果涉及货币政策与财政政策协调、利 率市场化改革、宏观治理效能提升等关键领域。在202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mid-term trends of the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, emphasizing the potential for a more multipolar global monetary system amid increasing economic uncertainty and pressure on the dollar [3]. Group 1: Dollar and Yuan Trends - Experts believe the US dollar is currently in a phase of adjustment, with a potential for short-term appreciation of the yuan, but significant structural economic issues cannot be resolved through large-scale yuan appreciation [5]. - The dollar is under pressure due to high US debt and deficits, which are expected to weaken its long-term credit foundation, as indicated by rising gold prices and a declining dollar index [5][6]. - The yuan may appreciate to around 6.8 in the short term, especially if the dollar weakens, but it is expected to fluctuate around 7 in the medium term [6][9]. Group 2: Future of the Monetary System - The international monetary system is undergoing structural changes, with a decentralized and more diverse currency landscape likely to emerge, rather than a sudden decline of the dollar [8]. - The importance of non-fiat assets like gold and commodities is increasing, reflecting a broader erosion of the foundations of fiat currencies, including the dollar [8]. - The yuan's international status is contingent on improvements in China's economic fundamentals and asset returns, with its use in international trade settlements expected to rise [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing discussion highlights the gradual de-dollarization and the emergence of a more diversified currency landscape, with the dollar facing long-term challenges while the renminbi is expected to appreciate moderately under controlled conditions [1][4]. Currency Trends - Experts believe the dollar index is in a phase of adjustment, not a unilateral decline, while the renminbi has short-term appreciation potential but cannot solve structural economic issues through significant appreciation [2][3]. - The current high debt and deficit environment in the U.S. is exerting downward pressure on the dollar, with a notable decline in the dollar index over the past year, particularly against currencies of developed economies [2][3]. - The renminbi may reach around 6.8 in the short term, especially if the dollar weakens and seasonal factors come into play, but it is expected to fluctuate around 7 in the medium term [2][3]. Future Currency System - The international monetary system is undergoing structural changes, moving towards a decentralized and more diversified currency framework, rather than a sudden decline of the dollar [4][5]. - The importance of non-fiat assets like gold and commodities is increasing globally, as fiscal pressures and rising debt levels affect all major economies [4][5]. - The renminbi's international status is closely tied to improvements in domestic economic fundamentals and asset returns, with potential for increased use in international trade settlements [5][6]. Long-term Outlook - The dollar's share in global reserves may significantly decline over the next decade, but this does not imply a rapid decline in U.S. overall strength, as its advantages in technology and capital markets continue to support its currency status [5][6]. - The international monetary system may evolve into a tri-polar structure with the dollar, euro, and renminbi coexisting, contingent on the development of offshore renminbi markets and cross-border financing mechanisms [6].

Core Viewpoint - The significant fluctuations in spot gold prices this week reflect heightened market sentiment, with prices reaching a new high since October 21 before retreating due to profit-taking, ultimately closing at $4171.2 per ounce, a daily decline of 0.58% [1] Short-term Catalysts - Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to a 42-day U.S. government shutdown, delays in key economic data, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and international trade relations have driven funds into gold [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen to over 65%, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index below 99.5, which reduces the holding cost of gold [3] - Technical support for gold prices was established after stabilizing above $4180, triggering systematic buying strategies and attracting further bullish investments after breaking the $4200 resistance [3] Long-term Structural Factors - Central banks globally have net purchased 902 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for about 30% of annual gold production, with China increasing its reserves for 12 consecutive months, totaling 7.409 million ounces [4] - The share of the U.S. dollar in global reserves has decreased to 55%, with some views suggesting that gold is gradually becoming an alternative asset to replace part of sovereign credit [4] - The function of gold is evolving from a traditional inflation hedge to a strategic allocation against sovereign credit risk, indicating a structural shift in institutional investment logic [5] Trend Outlook - The support logic for gold prices remains solid in the medium to long term, as the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is not yet over, and the U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, alongside a diversification process in the global reserve system, enhancing gold's role as a credit hedge in asset portfolios [6] - Some institutions predict that gold prices could reach the range of $7000 to $8000 by 2030, while acknowledging that increased volatility during high price periods has become the new norm, with market sentiment driving significant price fluctuations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of currency forms is driven by both private and state influences, with current trends indicating a shift from a dollar-dominated international monetary system towards a multipolar framework, emphasizing the importance of real economic competitiveness and technological innovation over mere capital account openness [2][3][19]. Group 1: Evolution of Currency Forms - Currency can be understood through two dimensions: commodity money vs. credit money, and private money vs. state money [4][5]. - The historical transition from commodity money to credit money reflects the need for efficient payment systems, with modern banking systems evolving into public-private partnerships supported by government credit [4][6]. - Recent developments in digital currencies highlight the competition between state-backed central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and private cryptocurrencies, with the latter often seen as extensions of existing monetary systems [5][6][8]. Group 2: Trends in International Monetary System - The international monetary system has been significantly influenced by globalization and financialization, but recent geopolitical tensions and financial crises have accelerated trends of de-globalization and de-financialization [3][19][21]. - The shift towards bilateral and limited multilateral trade cooperation indicates a decline in the relative importance of financial assets compared to real assets, which may have profound implications for the international monetary system and the internationalization of the renminbi [19][20][24]. Group 3: Digital Currency Dynamics - Platform currencies, such as WeChat Pay and Alipay, leverage network effects to gain systemic importance, disrupting traditional banking models and creating new payment channels [9][10]. - Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can either serve as cash substitutes or as interest-bearing assets, with their impact on the financial system largely dependent on whether they pay interest [11][14]. - Stablecoins, which are pegged to high liquidity assets like the US dollar, operate similarly to narrow banking models, emphasizing the need for high-quality reserves to maintain stability [15][18]. Group 4: US Cryptocurrency Strategy - The US faces challenges in maintaining the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency amid rising concerns over its long-term creditworthiness [34][36]. - The US government's strategy to utilize stablecoins as a means to reinforce dollarization reflects an attempt to monetize fiscal deficits while expanding the demand for US Treasury securities [35][40]. - However, the effectiveness of this strategy may be hindered by competition from other currencies and the inherent vulnerabilities of stablecoins, which are subject to market dynamics and regulatory scrutiny [42][43]. Group 5: Future of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system is likely to evolve towards a multipolar structure, with the renminbi's internationalization being driven by real economic strength and technological advancements rather than solely by capital account liberalization [2][19][52]. - The geopolitical landscape and economic policies will play crucial roles in shaping the future dynamics of global currency competition and cooperation [24][52].