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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20251119
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 02:48
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: In a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: Both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing, putting pressure on prices [2]. - Zinc: Trading within a range [2]. - Lead: Decreasing inventories limit price declines [2]. - Tin: Declining from a high level [2]. - Aluminum: Slightly stabilizing [2]. - Alumina: Trading within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support levels and are under pressure, moving in a volatile manner [2]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but there is limited downside [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 918.52, down 1.18%, and the night - session closing price was 929.84, up 0.94%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 11687, down 1.78%, and the night - session closing price was 11949, up 0.51%. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, ETF holdings, inventories, and price spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2500 people in the four weeks up to November 1st. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week of October 18th was 232,000, the first release since the government shutdown led to the absence of official reports. The Saudi Crown Prince's visit to the US and related investment and trade news, Trump's claim of selecting a Fed chair candidate, and the Japanese central bank governor's hint of a rate - hike determination [4][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 0 [6]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 85,660, down 0.91%, and the night - session closing price was 85900, up 0.28%. Both domestic and overseas inventories increased, and there were changes in price spreads [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Before the release of NVIDIA's earnings report and the non - farm payroll report, investors chose to stay on the sidelines. Amazon's issuance of large - scale bonds and warnings from the "New Bond King" about the private credit market led to the selling of risk assets. The "New Fed Wire" reported that there may be at least 3 dissenting votes at the Fed's December meeting. Peruvian copper production increased in September, and a copper mine project in Chile obtained environmental approval. Chinese copper product output declined in October [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 0 [10]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22310, down 0.69%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, price spreads, and inventories [11]. - **News**: The White House is reviewing a new rule to tax US citizens' overseas crypto - assets. Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Anthropic established a strategic partnership with significant investments [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17230, down 0.72%. Both domestic and overseas inventories decreased [14]. - **News**: Similar to the macro news in the copper section, investors were cautious before the release of important reports, and there may be dissenting votes at the Fed's December meeting [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 288,890, down 0.51%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and price spreads [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold and silver section, including employment data, Saudi - US relations, Fed chair selection, and Japanese central bank news [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of - 1 [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: For aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21465. There were changes in trading volume, positions, price spreads, inventories, and corporate profitability. For alumina and cast aluminum alloy, there were also corresponding price and trading data changes [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: Similar to the copper and lead sections, including employment data and Fed - related news [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all have a trend intensity of 0 [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 114,840, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,365. There were changes in trading volume, positions, price spreads, and industry - related data [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian forestry authorities took over a nickel - mining area, China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, Indonesia imposed sanctions on mining companies, and there were regulations on mining project approvals. Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on China, and Indonesia restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses [25][26][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [29].