交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2540至2600区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，奥籽进口消息抵消市场担忧加籽进口，市场回归震荡等待加拿大 油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑 盘面，但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受反倾销初步 裁定影响偏强震荡。偏多 2.基差：现货2580，基差19，升水期货。中性 3.库存：菜粕库存3.2万吨，上周2.7万吨，周环比增加18.52%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比增 加14.29%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, domestic aquaculture demand, and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a short - term volatile and upward pattern, with RM2601 ranging from 2540 to 2600 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal prices first rose and then fell. The tight spot market and the pending final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports influenced the market. The short - term demand is in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations. The market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good expectation. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and an import deposit of 75.8% was imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, which still supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation. - The main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand balance sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [23][24] - **Price and inventory data**: - The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2650, and the basis is 46, indicating a premium over futures. - The rapeseed meal inventory is 32,000 tons, up 18.52% week - on - week and 14.29% year - on - year. - The import volume of rapeseed in August was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has fallen to a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level. - The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has decreased slightly [8][25][27]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8].