机构：华源证券 货品结构变化推高增值服务成本，需求疲软致使毛利承压。2025 年Q2 单吨成本为680 元，同比-0.2%， 其中干线运输/分拨中心/增值服务/派送的单吨成本分别为288/138/52/201 元/吨，同比-5%/持 平/+45%/-1%；其中，干线运输成本下滑主因油价下跌以及线路优化带来的效率提升；增值服务的成本 上升主因货品结构变化。 2025 年Q2 单位毛利125 元/吨，同比-11%，主因公司调整价格策略以应对行业需求变化。我们预计公司 未来单位毛利有望随精细化管理及运输成本降低而改善。 盈利预测与评级：全网快运持续增长，加盟网络进入加速整合期。公司为加盟制全网零担快运龙头，战 略转型下公司盈利改善明显，规模效应释放下单位毛利仍有改善空间，长期来看加盟商生态优化推动业 务量增长，服务提价及效率改善有望推动单位毛利上行，看好公司长期发展空间。我们预计公司2025- 2027 年归母净利润分别为9.6/10.6/12.6 亿元，对应PE 分别为9.1x/8.2x/7.0x，维持买入评级。 风险提示。1）宏观经济波动导致运量增速不及预期；2）燃料价格上升导致成本管控不及预期；3）市 场竞争 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aneng Logistics reported a revenue of approximately 2.587 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and an adjusted net profit of about 242 million yuan, up 15.9% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Performance Metrics - The average delivery time improved to 65 hours as of March 2025, with the loss rate decreasing to 0.02 items per 100,000 and the complaint rate reduced to 33.2 complaints per 100,000 tickets [1] - The company maintained a network integration trend, with over 36,000 freight partners and agents by the end of March 2025, compared to approximately 29,400 a year earlier [1] - The total freight volume reached 3.05 million tons in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - The revenue per ton for less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments was 850 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with significant growth in mini and small ticket volumes by 27.4% and 12.1%, respectively [1] - The value-added service revenue per ton increased to 188 yuan, up 12.6% year-on-year, driven by the growth in small ticket volumes [1] - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was 410 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%, with a gross margin of 15.8%, down 0.26 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company is expected to continue optimizing its regional structure and channel layout, enhancing end-service efficiency and quality, which may lead to stable growth in revenue per ton [2] - The gross margin for value-added services is expected to further improve, with the unit gross profit for value-added services rising to 142 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [2] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the franchise-based nationwide LTL express market, with significant potential for profit improvement and business volume growth driven by franchisee ecosystem optimization [2]