期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格继续企稳，iFind 数据显示，截至 2 月 5 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动 力煤报价 692 元/吨，周环比小幅上涨 1 元/吨。当前正处于迎峰度冬关键时期，全国电厂煤炭日 耗高企，带动产业链中下游库存去化，但同时动力煤产量平稳运行，叠加市场对其中长期基本面 依然持有偏空预期，压制煤价维持低位运行。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 电煤需求旺盛，港口煤价小幅反 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 弹 | 备注： 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 核心逻辑：进入迎峰度冬关键时期，居民生活用电明显改善，且距离春节尚有两周时间，工业用 电尚未回落，短期内电厂煤炭日耗进入全年顶峰时段，下游电厂和其他终端企业补库需求仍存， 支撑煤价企稳小幅反弹。不过，在 1 月旺季的背景下，港口 5500K 煤价全月仅小幅上涨 11 元/吨， 同样反映出了当前煤炭基本面的乏力，以及市场对后续煤炭供需格局的偏空预期。整体来看，短 期需求旺盛、北港库存持续去化，以及下游终端企业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic thermal coal price remained weakly stable this week. The market bearish sentiment still exists, and the opportunity for the coal price to stop falling and stabilize may lie in the winter storage and replenishment of terminal power plants [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: The reference view for thermal coal spot is to fluctuate. The core logic is that in early September, domestic temperatures gradually dropped, and the daily coal consumption of power plants decreased seasonally. The demand for thermal coal was in line with market expectations, and the demand for non - power industries did not improve significantly, driving the coal price to operate weakly [4]. - **Supply Side**: The impact of the September 3rd parade on coal mine production has basically faded. After entering the new natural month, the production of thermal coal has gradually returned to the level before the parade, and the main producing area coal mines maintain normal production. The impact of "anti - involution" has not been further released [4]. - **Demand Side**: As of the week of September 4th, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.455 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 87,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.556 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 103,000 tons. The demand for domestic thermal coal has significantly declined compared with the summer peak [4].