外汇投资的最高境界，是从信息分析到交易执行的无缝衔接。您是否仍在为资讯、行情、工具、交易平 台之间的割裂而烦恼？我们基于实战视角，对主流外汇服务生态进行拆解测评，发现新浪财经APP通过 构建深度生态协同、专业交易赋能、动态风险管理三位一体的闭环系统，正在重塑高效外汇投资的范 式，成为成熟投资者提升盈利效率的核心引擎。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 一、生态协同能力终极对决：谁的平台能打破"信息孤岛"？ 真正的一站式服务，不是功能的简单堆砌，而是底层生态的有机协同： 金十数据 + 专业交易平台 （如MT4） 核心短板：用户需要在资讯APP与交易平台间手动切换，行情异动时需自行关联新闻背景，分析结论无 法直接应用于交易终端，流程断裂，效率低下。 同花顺/东方财富 核心短板：虽为综合平台，但其外汇模块与资讯、社区、交易通道的耦合度不足，各模块相对独立，未 能形成针对外汇投资的专属高效工作流。 新浪财经APP 核心优势：打造了以"外汇决策"为中心的深度协同生态。 资讯与行情的智能耦合：当欧元兑美元汇率剧烈波动时，行情页面不仅显示K线，更在侧边栏或弹窗中 智能关联出"欧洲央行官员最新 ...

Core Insights - The report innovatively combines the GARCH-EVT-VaR model with a defensive timing mechanism to construct a dynamic risk management framework, effectively capturing market tail features and volatility clustering while controlling downside risk and retaining upside elasticity, significantly enhancing portfolio performance [2][10][12] - The framework provides an important risk management tool for asset allocation in the current high-volatility environment, particularly during extreme market events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts [10][12] Model Characteristics - The GARCH model parameters for the four indices indicate significant volatility clustering, with the ChiNext index and CSI 300 showing greater resilience to volatility, while the CSI 500 exhibits a notable leverage effect [3][4][49] - Different indices have varying degrees of fit for the GARCH family models, with ChiNext and CSI 300 best suited for GARCH(1,1), CSI 500 for GARCH(1,1,1), and CSI 1000 for EGARCH(1,1,0) [3][4][49] Backtesting Results - The timing models for each index show positive excess returns, with annualized excess returns of 4.42% for ChiNext and 4.81% for CSI 1000, alongside reduced annualized volatility compared to benchmarks [4][71] - Each timing model has demonstrated a decrease in maximum drawdown, with ChiNext's maximum drawdown reduced from 49.4% to 36.8% and CSI 1000 from 42.0% to 30.0% [4][71] Strategy Advantages - The GARCH-EVT-VaR model provides more precise risk measurement, effectively capturing extreme tail risks, and demonstrates significant defensive effects, especially during extreme market events [4][10] - The strategy shows clear excess returns and higher Sharpe ratios compared to benchmarks, indicating improved risk-adjusted performance [4][71]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance in the first half of 2025, achieving significant growth in revenue and profit despite a challenging global capital market environment [1][3][17]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached HKD 18.03 billion, with total income at HKD 28 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.47% [1]. - Shareholder profit surged to HKD 887 million, a staggering increase of 1076% compared to the previous year [1]. - Basic earnings per share were HKD 0.453, with an interim dividend proposed at HKD 0.12 per share [1]. Investment Management Growth - The investment management segment generated HKD 10.35 billion in revenue, a remarkable increase of 897%, becoming the largest revenue driver for the company [3][5]. - Investment management profits before tax reversed from a loss of HKD 1.475 billion to a profit of HKD 7.856 billion, contributing over 70% of the company's total profit [3][5]. Market Performance - Since the announcement of positive earnings in early August, the company's stock price has risen over 20%, and year-to-date, it has increased by 60% [2]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) has expanded to around 7 times, with a net price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 21.88 times, reflecting a revaluation by institutional investors [2]. Business Structure and Strategy - The company has established a robust alternative investment ecosystem, showcasing resilience across economic cycles [3][9]. - The credit and fund business contributed HKD 17.26 billion in revenue, providing essential stability amid market volatility [10][11]. - The company has shifted from a self-capital-driven model to a third-party capital-driven strategy, increasing external investor capital from 79.9% to 85% [15][16]. Ecosystem and Collaboration - The company emphasizes collaboration with external private equity general partners and third-party funding to enhance resource support and strategic guidance [7][15]. - The private equity segment has become a key area for value realization, contributing HKD 5.82 billion in revenue, driven by successful exit projects [8][9]. Future Outlook - The company's valuation restructuring is seen as the beginning of a value discovery process, reflecting its transition from a traditional credit institution to an ecological asset management platform [17][18]. - The integrated model of stable cash flow from credit, excess returns from investment management, and future growth from fund management positions the company as a leading choice for global capital allocation in Asian alternative assets [18].