证券日报网12月17日讯重庆港（600279）在12月9日回答调研者提问时表示，为应对江津港二期改扩建 项目长周期建设中的市场需求变化与原材料价格波动等潜在风险，确保达成预期投资效益，公司已制定 系统性保障策略：在市场端，将通过签署长期协议锁定核心客户基础货量，并积极对接国家物流枢纽、 多式联运示范工程等政策，依托政策红利获取稳定货源。在设计端，采用"核心先行、预留拓展"的弹性 模式进行规划，使码头与堆场具备可扩展性，并提升设备通用性以灵活适配未来货种变化。在成本与资 金端，将积极申报政策性资金以对冲投资风险，并通过优化融资结构、加强全过程预算管控来严控建设 成本。这些措施共同构成了覆盖项目全生命周期的动态风险管理框架，旨在保障项目投运后的市场竞争 力和预期经济效益。 ...

Core Insights - The highest realm of forex investment is the seamless connection from information analysis to trade execution, with Sina Finance APP emerging as a core engine for mature investors to enhance profitability efficiency through a three-pronged system of deep ecological collaboration, professional trading empowerment, and dynamic risk management [1][19]. Group 1: Ecological Collaboration Capability - A true one-stop service is not merely a simple accumulation of functions but an organic collaboration of underlying ecosystems [4][22]. - Other platforms like Jin10 Data and professional trading platforms (e.g., MT4) require users to manually switch between information apps and trading platforms, leading to inefficiencies [4][22]. - Sina Finance APP has built a deep collaborative ecosystem centered on "forex decision-making," intelligently coupling information and market data [6][24]. Group 2: Trading Empowerment Evaluation - Excellent platforms provide a market "map," but top-tier platforms also offer refined "weapons" and "tactics" for execution [7][25]. - Sina Finance APP constructs a comprehensive empowerment system from "strategic insights" to "tactical execution," including macro analysis and practical trading strategies [9][27]. Group 3: Dynamic Risk Management and Compliance Guidance - For Chinese investors, risks arise not only from market fluctuations but also from policy and compliance environments [10][28]. - Sina Finance APP provides dual dynamic protection for "market risk" and "policy compliance," offering tools to monitor risk exposure and clear operational guidelines for compliance [12][30]. Summary - Sina Finance APP redefines the concept of a "professional forex terminal" by integrating ecological collaboration, trading empowerment, and dynamic risk navigation, evolving into a "frontline command center" for investors [13][33].

Core Insights - The report innovatively combines the GARCH-EVT-VaR model with a defensive timing mechanism to construct a dynamic risk management framework, effectively capturing market tail features and volatility clustering while controlling downside risk and retaining upside elasticity, significantly enhancing portfolio performance [2][10][12] - The framework provides an important risk management tool for asset allocation in the current high-volatility environment, particularly during extreme market events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts [10][12] Model Characteristics - The GARCH model parameters for the four indices indicate significant volatility clustering, with the ChiNext index and CSI 300 showing greater resilience to volatility, while the CSI 500 exhibits a notable leverage effect [3][4][49] - Different indices have varying degrees of fit for the GARCH family models, with ChiNext and CSI 300 best suited for GARCH(1,1), CSI 500 for GARCH(1,1,1), and CSI 1000 for EGARCH(1,1,0) [3][4][49] Backtesting Results - The timing models for each index show positive excess returns, with annualized excess returns of 4.42% for ChiNext and 4.81% for CSI 1000, alongside reduced annualized volatility compared to benchmarks [4][71] - Each timing model has demonstrated a decrease in maximum drawdown, with ChiNext's maximum drawdown reduced from 49.4% to 36.8% and CSI 1000 from 42.0% to 30.0% [4][71] Strategy Advantages - The GARCH-EVT-VaR model provides more precise risk measurement, effectively capturing extreme tail risks, and demonstrates significant defensive effects, especially during extreme market events [4][10] - The strategy shows clear excess returns and higher Sharpe ratios compared to benchmarks, indicating improved risk-adjusted performance [4][71]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance in the first half of 2025, achieving significant growth in revenue and profit despite a challenging global capital market environment [1][3][17]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached HKD 18.03 billion, with total income at HKD 28 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.47% [1]. - Shareholder profit surged to HKD 887 million, a staggering increase of 1076% compared to the previous year [1]. - Basic earnings per share were HKD 0.453, with an interim dividend proposed at HKD 0.12 per share [1]. Investment Management Growth - The investment management segment generated HKD 10.35 billion in revenue, a remarkable increase of 897%, becoming the largest revenue driver for the company [3][5]. - Investment management profits before tax reversed from a loss of HKD 1.475 billion to a profit of HKD 7.856 billion, contributing over 70% of the company's total profit [3][5]. Market Performance - Since the announcement of positive earnings in early August, the company's stock price has risen over 20%, and year-to-date, it has increased by 60% [2]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) has expanded to around 7 times, with a net price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 21.88 times, reflecting a revaluation by institutional investors [2]. Business Structure and Strategy - The company has established a robust alternative investment ecosystem, showcasing resilience across economic cycles [3][9]. - The credit and fund business contributed HKD 17.26 billion in revenue, providing essential stability amid market volatility [10][11]. - The company has shifted from a self-capital-driven model to a third-party capital-driven strategy, increasing external investor capital from 79.9% to 85% [15][16]. Ecosystem and Collaboration - The company emphasizes collaboration with external private equity general partners and third-party funding to enhance resource support and strategic guidance [7][15]. - The private equity segment has become a key area for value realization, contributing HKD 5.82 billion in revenue, driven by successful exit projects [8][9]. Future Outlook - The company's valuation restructuring is seen as the beginning of a value discovery process, reflecting its transition from a traditional credit institution to an ecological asset management platform [17][18]. - The integrated model of stable cash flow from credit, excess returns from investment management, and future growth from fund management positions the company as a leading choice for global capital allocation in Asian alternative assets [18].